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freenewstoday · 3 years

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The 349 teams that won't win the 2021 men's national championship

7:00 AM ET

John GasawayESPN Insider

ESPN Insider college basketball contributor

First began covering college hoops in 2004

Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal

Every March, the pressure grows stronger on what everyone at ESPN headquarters now refers to as simply The Streak. We are speaking, of course, of the 349 teams that won’t win the men’s basketball national title.

Yes, yes, it’s true. This venerable feature that selects eight teams of the 357 in Division I that could win the title has successfully included the eventual national champion every time. It’s not like we’ve been doing this since the 1950s — we started in 2016, actually — but still, a streak is a streak.

Here are the 349 teams that won’t win the 2021 national title, broken into three groups: ineligible, near misses and no clear path.

Are we clear? Let’s get started.

Ineligible (12 teams)

Alabama A&M Bulldogs Alabama State Hornets Arizona Wildcats Auburn Tigers Bellarmine Knights Cal Baptist Lancers Dixie State Merrimack Warriors North Alabama Lions Tarleton Texans UC San Diego Tritons Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Near misses (15 teams)

Arkansas Razorbacks

Right, so let’s dive in with a curious choice, shall we? Arkansas has looked as good as any team in the country over the past few games, yet here they are named as a team that won’t win the title. Has there been some mistake here? Quite possibly. The streak is doomed to end sooner or later, and Eric Musselman has the team that could do the job. The only thing keeping the Razorbacks out of the magic eight is a slight reliance on their excellent rebounding to do much of the work on defense. Meanwhile, the Hogs’ SEC opponents have recorded average marks for shooting (on both sides of the arc) and for turnovers. The average marks in important categories kept Arkansas here, barely, in near miss territory. But, yes, putting a team that has won 10 of its past 11 here is definitely living dangerously.

Creighton Bluejays

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The Bluejays look outstanding on paper, but even before the turmoil surrounding coach Greg McDermott’s racially insensitive remarks, the team seemed to lose a step late in the season. Indeed, it was McDermott’s displeasure with his team in a loss at previously struggling Xavier that brought about his appalling choice of wording. Perhaps we’ll look back on this in a week or two and regret classifying Creighton here, and maybe this will have blown over amid the excitement of a deep tournament run. (The team did look outstanding, for example, in thrashing Butler at home in the season finale.) At the moment, however, there’s too much uncertainty around Creighton for inclusion in the big eight.

Florida State Seminoles

There have been times this season when it was plain as day that the Seminoles would be tapped as one of the eight teams that could win the title. Indeed, the thing that people still (in March!) aren’t getting about this team is that Leonard Hamilton has a group of amazing shooters. Think of FSU as the Villanova of the ACC and you’ll be closer to the mark than the usual “long and athletic” riff. Florida State is absolutely long and athletic and, oh, by the way, the Seminoles will shoot you out of the gym. Alas, this also has been an inconsistent great-shooting team. Plus, let’s be honest, recency effect packs a punch. The last time we saw the Seminoles, they were losing at Notre Dame. So, yes, near miss.

Kansas Jayhawks

Give Bill Self full credit: KU has come storming back after a lackluster start to the season. (This team was unranked at one point.) Now, the Jayhawks look pretty much like they always do: dangerous and headed for a really high seed. In particular, this was, easily, the best defense in the Big 12 in conference play. (Quite a feather in your cap when Baylor is in your league.) There’s no doubting this team’s ability to make opposing offenses suffer, but there are still questions attached to this offense. Self’s guys shot 33% on their 3-pointers in conference play, and, well, the “67 points in 67 possessions at home against UTEP” outing does make one hesitate before conferring high-eight honors.

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Loyola Chicago Ramblers

The first thing to acknowledge is that Loyola Chicago is clearly going to the Final Four. After the series of three incredible, last-possession wins in a row in the 2018 NCAA tournament, we know better than to ever doubt the Ramblers. Still, once Loyola makes it that far, yet again, perhaps the opponent in the national semifinal will form a human wall around Cameron Krutwig and force his teammates to win with 3-point shots. It is not clear the Ramblers will be able to do so, after a season in which they connected just 33% of the time from beyond the arc in Missouri Valley play.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Yes, Ohio State was projected as a No. 1 seed for the better part of February, so, yes, this pick could go horribly awry. A recurring theme in these anguished comments is that, hey, keeping the charmed circle to just eight programs necessitates excluding some exceptionally strong teams. The Buckeyes’ strength is their offense. Duane Washington and Justin Ahrens get good 3-point looks against defenses preoccupied with stopping E.J. Liddell inside the arc. On the other side of the ball, however, OSU has not been as successful. Big Ten opponents ended their possessions with a shot attempt over 85% of the time, and against a team that doesn’t force a high number of misses, that matters.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

The fact that Cade Cunningham is one of the best watches in college basketball this season shouldn’t be surprising, but it is. We have become accustomed to playmakers blessed with one-and-done talent who spend their brief shining hour in the college game demonstrating potential more than present-tense team-improving ability. Cunningham breaks that mold by involving his teammates, seeing the court with a practiced eye and making wise choices. Speaking of surprises, though, it’s a bit incongruous to find that an OSU offense led by such a talent notched just 1.03 points per possession in Big 12 play. (The Cowboys’ defense, conversely, is very good and too little noticed. Salute.)

Purdue Boilermakers

The flat-out best thing about the streak of perfection ending for this feature this season would be if Purdue, in particular, won the national title. It would be worth it, in fact, to see Zach Edey cut down the nets while doing without the ladder entirely. No, truly, against Michigan State, he completed a nice alley-oop with an emphatic slam despite the fact that his feet barely left the floor. Edey is a pleasure to watch, and the Boilermakers’ defense is stout, but this offense shot 30.7% on 3s against the Big Ten.

San Diego State Aztecs

Brian Dutcher’s program is 50-6 over the past two seasons, and for a second consecutive season, the Aztecs are getting the job done on defense. It’s easy to envision some snooty major conference team breaking into pieces when it runs up against this D, and that could well happen deep in an SDSU tournament run. Ultimately, however, it is both amazing and, for the purposes of this present exercise, problematic that a team with such a glittering track record also ranked No. 8 in Mountain West play this season for 2-point accuracy.

Texas Longhorns

For one dazzling moment in January, Texas looked like a sure thing not to be here with the near miss teams. In the space of seven days, the Longhorns won road games against Kansas and West Virginia. The Big 12 office should have a special medal for any team that can pull off that twin bill. But then the trajectory appeared to change for UT. Since that victory in Morgantown, Shaka Smart’s group has gone 7-6. True, the example UConn set in 2011 makes us never say never after a middling January and February. We do say “seldom,” however, and Texas does not appear to be peaking at the moment.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

The following are words we never thought would need to be said regarding a Chris Beard team, but here goes: This defense is better than it looks. The Big 12 for some inscrutable reason couldn’t miss on its 3s against the Red Raiders. Adjust that success rate downward to the mean and you’re looking at a pretty good defensive unit, one that forces both turnovers and misses in the paint. Throw in an offense that never turns over the ball and you have an excellent team — just not a member of the charmed top-eight circle.

Villanova Wildcats

Sadly, Villanova is not whole. Collin Gillespie was lost for the rest of the season due to a knee injury, and now it appears that Justin Moore will miss the Big East tournament with a severe ankle sprain. Ordinarily, one would hesitate before betting against a coach who has won two of the past four national titles. Indeed, it wouldn’t be a total shock if the Wildcats mustered a “next man up” credo and continued their ultra-low-turnover ways successfully enough to make the second weekend. Without Gillespie, however, near miss is where Villanova resides this time around.

Virginia Cavaliers

The numbers might not be as elite as usual on defense, but Virginia is still capable of inflicting emotional damage on opposing offenses by forcing misses and taking you deep into the shot clock. No, we’re fine with the D. The deal breaker with this season’s Cavaliers on this list is simply that Tony Bennett’s guys don’t get up enough shots. This can be hard to spot in real time because the Hoos are so accurate in their shooting and take very good care of the ball. But the unmistakable turn toward extreme avoidance of all offensive rebounds is hitting this offense’s bottom line. Make that “unmistakable and surprising.” This program won a national title with high shot volume over the course of six NCAA tournament games. Those days, go figure, are gone or at least paused, it seems.

West Virginia

Conventional wisdom suggests West Virginia is better since Oscar Tshiebwe elected to transfer out of the program. “Better spacing,” they will tell you. That might be the case. We do know the Mountaineers are pretty darn good, and more specifically, this offense is excellent. But can we really be sure that the old version of West Virginia, the one that not only had the lead against Gonzaga at the half on Dec. 2 but actually had the Bulldogs visibly shook, wouldn’t have been just as good too? Anyway, this current team has an issue with opponents converting 2-point attempts, which Big 12 teams did nearly 53% of the time.

Wisconsin Badgers

Lack of scoring. The reason Wisconsin is here with the near miss teams is due to a lack of scoring. Why this is the case is an excellent question. You’ve heard all the age comparisons about how these Badgers are older than some (very young) NBA teams. All that experience and continuity from last season was supposed to mean a team that was a little better than average in Big Ten play last season would be excellent on that side of the ball in 2021. It hasn’t happened, and in fact, Wisconsin ended conference play clocking in slightly below the league average for points per possession. A mystery yet to be solved.

No clear path (322 teams)

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Air Force Falcons

Akron Zips

Albany Great Danes

Alcorn State Braves

American Eagles

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Army Black Knights

Austin Peay Governors

Ball State Cardinals

Belmont Bruins

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (inactive)

Binghamton Bearcats

Boise State Broncos

Boston College Eagles

Boston University Terriers

Bowling Green Falcons

Bradley Braves

Brown Bears (inactive)

Bryant Bulldogs

Bucknell Bison

Buffalo Bulls

Butler Bulldogs

BYU Cougars

California Golden Bears

Cal Poly Mustangs

CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners

CSU Fullerton Titans

CSU Northridge Matadors

Campbell Fighting Camels

Canisius Golden Griffins

Central Arkansas Bears

Central Connecticut Blue Devils

Central Michigan Chippewas

Charleston Cougars

Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Charlotte 49ers

Chattanooga Mocs

Chicago State Cougars (inactive)

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Citadel Bulldogs

Clemson Tigers

Cleveland State Vikings

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Colgate Raiders

Colorado State Rams

Columbia Lions (inactive)

UConn Huskies

Coppin State Eagles

Cornell Big Red (inactive)

Dartmouth Big Green (inactive)

Davidson Wildcats

Dayton Flyers

Delaware Blue Hens

Delaware State Hornets

Denver Pioneers

DePaul Blue Demons

Detroit Mercy Titans

Drake Bulldogs

Drexel Dragons

Duke Blue Devils

Duquesne Dukes

East Carolina Pirates

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Eastern Illinois Panthers

Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Eastern Michigan Eagles

Eastern Washington Eagles

Elon Phoenix

Evansville Purple Aces

Fairfield Stags

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Florida Gators

Florida A&M Rattlers

Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Florida International Golden Panthers

Fordham Rams

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons

Fresno State Bulldogs

Furman Paladins

Gardner-Webb Bulldogs

George Mason Patriots

George Washington Colonials

Georgetown Hoyas

Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Southern Eagles

Georgia State Panthers

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Grambling Tigers

Grand Canyon Antelopes

Green Bay Phoenix

Hampton Pirates

Hartford Hawks

Harvard Crimson (inactive)

Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

High Point Panthers

Hofstra Pride

Holy Cross Crusaders

Houston Baptist Huskies

Howard Bison (inactive)

Idaho Vandals

Idaho State Bengals

Illinois-Chicago Flames

Illinois State Redbirds

Incarnate Word Cardinals

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana State Sycamores

Iowa State Cyclones

IUPUI Jaguars

Iona Gaels

Jackson State Tigers

Jacksonville Dolphins

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

James Madison Dukes

Kansas State Wildcats

Kennesaw State Owls

Kent State Golden Flashes

Kentucky Wildcats

La Salle Explorers

Lafayette Leopards

Lamar Cardinals

Lehigh Mountain Hawks

Liberty Flames

Lipscomb Bisons

Little Rock Trojans

Long Beach State 49ers

Long Island University Sharks

Longwood Lancers

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

UL Monroe Warhawks

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Louisville Cardinals

Loyola (MD) Greyhounds

Loyola Marymount Lions

LSU Tigers

Maine Black Bears (inactive)

Manhattan Jaspers

Marist Red Foxes

Marquette Golden Eagles

Marshall Thundering Herd

Maryland Terrapins

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks (inactive)

UMass Minutemen

UMass Lowell River Hawks

McNeese Cowboys

Memphis Tigers

Mercer Bears

Miami Hurricanes

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Michigan State Spartans

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Milwaukee Panthers

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Ole Miss Rebels

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Missouri Tigers

Missouri State Bears

Monmouth Hawks

Montana Grizzlies

Montana State Bobcats

Morehead State Eagles

Morgan State Bears

Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers

Murray State Racers

Navy Midshipmen

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nevada Wolf Pack

New Hampshire Wildcats

NJIT Highlanders

New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico State Aggies

New Orleans Privateers

Niagara Purple Eagles

Nicholls Colonels

Norfolk State Spartans

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina A&T Aggies

North Carolina Central Eagles

NC State Wolfpack

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

North Dakota State Bison

North Florida Ospreys

North Texas Mean Green

Northeastern Huskies

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Northern Colorado Bears

Northern Illinois Huskies

Northern Iowa Panthers

Northern Kentucky Norse

Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern State Demons

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Ohio Bobcats

Oklahoma Sooners

Old Dominion Monarchs

Omaha Mavericks

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Oregon Ducks

Oregon State Beavers

Pacific Tigers

Penn Quakers (inactive)

Penn State Nittany Lions

Pepperdine Waves

Pittsburgh Panthers

Portland Pilots

Portland State Vikings

Prairie View A&M Panthers

Presbyterian Blue Hose

Princeton Tigers (inactive)

Providence Friars

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Radford Highlanders

Rhode Island Rams

Rice Owls

Richmond Spiders

Rider Broncs

Robert Morris Colonials

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Sacramento State Hornets

Sacred Heart Pioneers

Saint Joseph’s Hawks

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

St. Francis NY Terriers

St. Francis PA Red Flash

St. John’s Red Storm

Saint Louis Billikens

Saint Mary’s Gaels

Saint Peter’s Peacocks

Sam Houston State Bearkats

Samford Bulldogs

San Diego Toreros

San Francisco Dons

San Jose State Spartans

Santa Clara Broncos

Seattle Redhawks

Seton Hall Pirates

Siena Saints

South Alabama Jaguars

South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina State Bulldogs

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

South Carolina Upstate Spartans

South Dakota Coyotes

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

South Florida Bulls

SE Louisiana Lions

Southern Jaguars

Southern Illinois Salukis

SIU Edwardsville Cougars

SMU Mustangs

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Stanford Cardinal

Stetson Hatters

Stony Brook Seawolves

Syracuse Orange

TCU Horned Frogs

Temple Owls

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee Martin Skyhawks

Tennessee State Tigers

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders

Texas Southern Tigers

Texas State Bobcats

Toledo Rockets

Towson Tigers

Troy Trojans

Tulane Green Wave

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

UAB Blazers

UC Davis Aggies

UC Irvine Anteaters

UC Riverside Highlanders

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

UCF Knights

UCLA Bruins

UMBC Retrievers

UMKC Kangaroos

UNC Asheville Bulldogs

UNC Greensboro Spartans

UNC Wilmington Seahawks

UNLV Rebels

USC Trojans

UT Arlington Mavericks

UTEP Miners

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

UT San Antonio Roadrunners

Utah Utes

Utah State Aggies

Utah Valley Wolverines

Valparaiso Crusaders

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vermont Catamounts

Virginia Tech Hokies

VMI Keydets

VCU Rams

Wagner Seahawks

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Washington Huskies

Washington State Cougars

Weber State Wildcats

Western Carolina Catamounts

Western Illinois Leathernecks

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Michigan Broncos

Wichita State Shockers

William & Mary Tribe

Winthrop Eagles

Wofford Terriers

Wright State Raiders

Wyoming Cowboys

Xavier Musketeers

Yale Bulldogs (inactive)

Youngstown State Penguins

Right, so by my count, that right there sums to 349 teams. If you’re a fan of a team that hasn’t shown up yet, congratulations! Your team is among the magic eight, which, as a simple matter of deduction, must consist of the following: Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan.

Go out and make this feature look good, magic eight. There’s a streak on the line.

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thegloober · 6 years

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Saddle Up!

Elizabeth Dunn is a PhD student in Information Science at the University of North Texas. She also works as an administrator and adjunct faculty instructor at Tarleton State University in Stephenville,Texas.

How befitting a Texan author, a post entitled Saddle Up? Lone Star aside, some of my most valuable life lessons have been learned outside of the classroom and, in hindsight, are applicable to important academic, professional, and personal areas of life (which as we know often overlap).

Riding horses was a hobby that I enjoyed. In fact, over the course of my late teens and early twenties, I rode almost every day. It was my passion; it even weighted heavily in many significant life decisions I made during this time. I loved horses who were easy to ride and the ones who were tough to ride even more. I delighted in riding the horses who taught me lessons and the green ones who had so much to learn.

I loved riding … but truth be told, I didn’t always revel in the process of everything that I had to do before the ride. Some days gathering the motivation to go to the barn and saddle up was tough. I really had to remind myself of my core motivations when it was 15 degrees in the Kentucky winter and I needed to be riding a colt. Honestly, however, it wasn’t the act of riding that I wasn’t looking forward to: instead it was finding the initial motivation to saddle the horse.

Recently, while considering a writing deadline and contemplating procrastination, I had an epiphany. It wasn’t writing I was dreading; like saddling, what I was truly avoiding was the initial act of actually sitting down to write. That meant putting the comfortable, fun and easy aside. The path of least resistance is alluring: however, it’s probably not the path that will lead to timely and successful completion of a graduate degree. Just the idea of approaching some tasks can feel overwhelming and be a source of apprehension. Even if you know that once you’ve started it won’t be that bad, it’s important to remember that in confronting the uncomfortable we grow.

Here are some ways to get past the anxiety of “saddling up”:

Set goals. Succeeding in graduate school requires daily commitment and effort. That fact alone can cause anxiety. However, literally knowing that I would not be sitting at my desk for the rest of eternity helps me to get started. If I approach writing from the angle that I am trying to accomplish this section of the lit review, or set up this paper, or even organize priorities (!) you are closer to achieving that task than when you began. Setting goals is a great first step towards achieving them.

Be realistic about the amount of time that you actually have each day. Let’s be real: most of us don’t have four to five hours every day to devote to writing. Setting realistic goals will help you approach the task and keep your mind off the clock. Also, allot appropriate time to deadlines and large projects. Two hours on a Sunday afternoon is simply not enough time to write a ten page paper and give it your best. (See the point below about starting early.)

Plan breaks. Get to know yourself. When do you start to crack? Personally, I like to read in small chunks and then get up and take a walk or do a household chore. I don’t always check the clock, since I know when I’m starting to lose focus. There’s a lot of discussion and much founded in science about about how breaks, especially spent in nature, improve health and make us more creative. Giving myself permission to step away for a few moments takes away the anxiety of feeling like I’m diving into a bottomless sea.

Eat the frog. Mark Twain is credited with the quote: Eat a live frog first thing in the morning and nothing worse will happen to you the rest of the day. Like saddling a horse (and ab workouts, and cleaning the bathroom), when a task isn’t my favorite, I seek opportunities to avoid it. However, by approaching what it is that you don’t want to confront, you’ll be able to accomplish the task and move forward onto things you’d rather be doing.

Start early. Over the course of my time as a student, I’ve come to learn that much of my anxiety about getting started occurs when I’ve put something too big off for too long. I pay the cost of stress physically, mentally, and emotionally. Make a dedication to working on graduate school every day. It should be a daily commitment, just like sleeping eight hours and drinking plenty of water. Make a to do list, then an action program. Doing so can reduce the anxiety of approaching your tasks.

Take time to take care of yourself, your surroundings, and your relationships. This comes back to good time management. Make sure that you take time to tidy your desk area, take care of a few key household chores, and spend some time with your loved ones. Taking care of these things will help to ease your mind about setting aside several hours to devote to your writing responsibilities, which will diminish the anxiety of getting started.

On a Saturday afternoon when it’s sunny and 72 degrees, it can be quite hard to say no to social invitations, sit at your desk closed off from the rest of the world, and settle into several hours of writing or studying. Once you’re there, however, with every keystroke you’re moving towards your goals and just maybe things aren’t as painful as they seemed. Grad school is a short term sacrifice for long term gain! I’ve learned that acknowledging a source of discomfort takes away its power. Knowing that I dread the initial “saddling up” helps me to confront the chore of it and take action steps towards my purpose.

How do you rally to get started on a task? Post your idea in the comments below.

[Image courtesy of the author – taken aboard Kings Flashy Bar.]

Source: https://bloghyped.com/saddle-up/

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