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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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New Home Prices
As part of the new home sales report released yesterday, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices. From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2019 was $302,700. The average sales price was $376,000." The following graph shows the median and average new home prices.
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Click on graph for larger image. During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales.  When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits. Now it appears the home builders are offering some less expensive (and probably smaller) homes. The average price in Mar 2019 2018 was $376,300, and the median price was $302,700. The second graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price.
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About 6% of new homes sold were under $150K in Mar 2019.  This is down from 30% in 2002, but up from recent levels.  In general, the under $150K bracket is going away.    The $400K+ bracket increased significantly since the housing recovery started, but has started to decline.  Still, a majority of new homes (about 56%) in the U.S., are in the $200K to $400K range. from Calculated Risk http://bit.ly/2Zx3IVZ
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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The Bunch: A Roubaix Rewind
Hello, and welcome back. We know, we know, we missed an episode last week. Let’s blame it on Easter, though that’s not the real reason. Being shattered from the Classics is actually the real reason, but I don’t want to seem to be a lightweight or a whinging pom when it comes to ‘hard work in Belgium’.
It’s not a true Bunch today — there’s no rant, no race roundup, no ‘what’s in our garage’ — so I’m going to have to give you a reason to watch, ain’t I. Well, instead I’ve gathered a load of goodies from the classic of the classics and put together a little vlog from Paris-Roubaix. Shall we call it The Roubaix Rewind?
After all, it was a stunning edition, actually, I think its fact that it’s always a stunning edition, it’s a race that never fails to be a must watch. Some races can have off years (here’s looking at you every other TDF and Milan0-Sanremo) but the cobbled classic of northern France is just exciting year after year. Being there, chasing the race and getting a trackside seat at the finish turns that excitement up to 11. So I hope this break from the normal Bunch will not just show you how crazy, head spinning and savage the race is but also encourage every cycling fan to save their hard earned holidays and try and visit the race at least once. As if you’d need a vid to convince you of this.
Until next week when normal service will be resumed, with the usual features and a few new ones to keep things spicy, we hope this video tide you over. And if it doesn’t, well why not have a rummage through the rest of the YouTube channel because we like to think we’ve put some great content out over the cobbled classics. Everything from a bike review that’s named after the great race to looking at tech that helped the riders conquer the pavé.
Video’s you may have missed from the cobbled classics:
The best corner in pro cycling: Entering the Roubaix velodrome
The bikes of Paris–Roubaix
The Holy Week Recon: Trek PJs, soggy cobbles and highway madness.
HiRide ESAS review: The full suspension road bike system used by Team Sky
Specialized’s new Roubaix first-ride review: Performance, soothed
On the ground in Flanders: The Bunch, Ep. 10
Podcast from the pave CyclingTips Podcast: A walk through the Tour of Flanders
CyclingTips Podcast: Inside Paris-Roubaix
The post The Bunch: A Roubaix Rewind appeared first on CyclingTips.
from CyclingTips http://bit.ly/2PqLWz0
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Shaft Review – UST MAMIYA ‘THE’ ATTAS
By its own admission, UST Mamiya has become more of a graphite iron shaft company in recent years. Its primary focus has been on the development of the Recoil, which has exploded to become the game’s most popular graphite iron shaft. With the recent success of its Helium driver shaft, however; it sees an opportunity to insert itself back into driver shaft discussion – and any discussion of UST Mamiya Driver shaft technology likely begins with the ATTAS line.
That’s because, as much as anything else, ATTAS serves as a development platform where the price point gives UST the freedom to work without limitations to materials and design. What UST Mamiya learns from ATTAS development almost invariably trickles down into its other offerings.
With a couple of early exceptions, ATTAS designs originate in Japan and don’t necessarily target UST’s typical US customer with the same intensity as some of its other offerings. ATTAS profiles tend to be a bit softer overall, and the weights generally sit at the lower end of the spec range (the 6S, for example, is closer to 60 than 70 grams).
‘THE’ ATTAS
Typically, UST Mamiya releases a new ATTAS every season, the latest version of which is known simply as The ATTAS. It’s the 10th generation of the ATTAS family, which is the reason for the bold color scheme, which Billy Horshel (who put THE ATTAS in play at the Dell Match Play Championship) calls Skittles.
While the graphics have a particular paint splatter look to them, they’re not without purpose. Each color represents a previous ATTAS model. The orange near the butt section represents the original ATTAS, the red the ATTAS 2, and so on and so forth until you reach the white paint of the 9th generation ATTAS Cool.
As you’d expect from any shaft at this price point, UST Mamiya is using high modulus carbon fiber with low resin content. Because the profile is designed to be softer overall, you won’t find any of the ultra-stiff materials like T1100, but UST does leverage 40-ton material in the bias layer along with a constant taper design for a smooth feel and better energy transfer respectively.
While very often we focus on shafts with a spin reduction story, The ATTAS is different in that the target demographic includes the guy looking to add a little bit more spin. As drivers have progressively become lower spinning, there’s an increasing need to leverage the shaft as a means to introduce a bit more spin back into the performance equation.
In Billy Horschel’s case, he wanted something that would allow him to turn the ball over, without the risk of a big hook. The bit of extra backspin from the ATTAS helps the ball hold a straighter line.
Using the requisite language of the shaft world, UST Mamiya describes The ATTAS as a mid launch/mid spin offering. To see how it compares to the previous ATTAS as well as other similar shafts on the market, we turn to Cool Clubs and the S3 shaft database.
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GET FIT FOR YOUR GAME WITH TRUEGOLFFIT™
Unbiased. No Guesswork. All Major Brands. Matched To Your Swing. Advanced Golf Analytics matches the perfect clubs to your exact swing using connected data and machine learning.
SEE MY RESULTS
UST MAMIYA THE ATTAS Data Powered by Cool Clubs S3
We’ve partnered with Cool Clubs, the Golf Industry’s Leading Custom Fit Club Company, to bring you shaft reviews powered by its Shaft Simulation System (S3).
S3 TECHNOLOGIES UTILIZES THE MOST ADVANCED SHAFT TESTING TECHNOLOGY IN THE INDUSTRY. THE SHAFT SIMULATION SYSTEM (S3), WHICH WAS DEVELOPED IN 2013, IS A FULLY-AUTOMATED, ALL-IN-ONE SHAFT PROFILING MACHINE. IN A MATTER OF MINUTES, THE S3 DETERMINES THE FOLLOWING SHAFT SPECS: (STRAIGHTNESS, CONSISTENCY PROFILE, EI PROFILE, CPM ANALYSIS, AND TORQUE). WHILE SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SPECS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM SHAFT MANUFACTURERS, A LACK OF INDUSTRY STANDARDS PREVENTS THAT DATA BEING USED FOR ACCURATE APPLES-TO-APPLES COMPARISONS. S3 TECHNOLOGIES SOLVES THIS CHALLENGE BY TESTING ALL OF OUR PRODUCTS IN-HOUSE USING THE S3. THIS GIVES S3 TECHNOLOGIES A UNIQUE AND IN-DEPTH UNDERSTANDING OF THE QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE OF THE INDUSTRY’S SHAFTS.
Not only does S3 give us standardized quantitative information about the shaft(s) being reviewed, the data we share will provide you with a much better sense of how those shafts compare with similarly specced offerings on the market.
Using S3 data, we’ll be providing a comparison of The ATTAS to similar shafts in the S3 database, as well as the previous generation of ATTAS – the ATTAS Coool. Comparisons are based on stiff flex shafts in the 60-gram range.
Launch Characteristics
The dark gray line represents the S3 database average for stiff flex shafts in the 60-70g weight range. The light gray line represents a neutral profile – effectively the baseline for what we would describe as a mid-launch profile.
Based on measurements from Cool Clubs S3, The ATTAS is classified as a MID-HIGH launch shaft, while similar, the previous ATTAS (ATTAS Coool) is classified as MID launch.
ZONE EI
The following chart compares the stiffness of THE ATTAS in the butt, mid, and tip sections to the S3 database average of stiff flex shafts in the 60-70g range.
As you can see, THE ATTAS is slightly stiffer than similar shafts in the butt section though slightly softer than the ATTAS COOOl. The midsection is a bit firmer, while the softer tip section contributes to higher launch.
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Balance Point
The following chart compares the balance point of THE ATTAS to the S3 database average of stiff flex shafts in the 60-70g range.
  While the balance point is a bit higher than that of the ATTAS Coool, it’s a bit lower than the database average overall. We would not describe The ATTAS as counterbalanced.
SWING SPEED RECOMMENDATIONS
The chart below provides swing speed recommendations for the entire THE ATTAS lineup.
Note that these recommendations are based on the full range of Cool Clubs‘ building and fitting capabilities, including factors such as tipping and build length which can cause a shaft to play either softer or stiffer.
To simplify things a bit, you may wish to narrow these ranges. The sweet spot from a fitting perspective begins 25% from the slow end of the range. As a general rule, players with faster tempos, particularly in transition may fit into a stiffer flex, while smoother swingers often fit into a softer flex.
From the Cool Clubs Fitting Team
Ranging from flyweight to heavyweight, The ATTAS is available from a 51-grams in a regular flex to an 85-grams in X flex. The range of options covers swing speeds from 75 mph to 135 mph. Finding The ATTAS in a weight and flex combination that works for you won’t be an issue.
Using The ATTAS 6S for reference the balance point is slightly lower than the Cool Clubs S3 Shaft Database average while the launch parameters are marginally higher.  With a traditional taper design, this 10th generation shaft is made with the latest high-quality materials available to the industry while maintaining the simple profile typical of most ATTAS designs.  This simplicity is what makes it so remarkable! If you liked (and benefited from) the performance and dependability of previous ATTAS versions, you expect to be satisfied with this latest version.
There are so many shafts on the market that are designed to decrease launch and spin, which is part of what makes The ATTAS a refreshing departure. It’s designed to increase launch and spin, and the platform has proven track record of serving golfers who need just that from their golf shaft.
The ATTAS 6S is a workhorse for the player who swings between 92 and 108 miles per hour with a quicker tempo and wants to launch the ball higher with a moderate amount of spin. The stiffer butt section helps the shaft keep up with a swing with a quicker transition while the softer tip assists in adding dynamic loft at impact for the player who needs to launch the ball higher for optimal trajectory.
The flash in The ATTAS 6S comes from the color scheme as UST Mamiya has shed their traditional look with refreshingly vibrant splashes of color – think golf shaft meets paintballs. Part of the fun comes from the graphics while lower scores can be traced to this dependable performer.
Information is based on test results of the S flex THE ATTAS shafts from Cool Club’s S3 Shaft Explorer with over 2500+ shaft profiles for comparison.
For more information on THE ATTAS, visit USTMamiya.com.
WHAT’S NEXT?
As we mentioned in a previous post, this is a relatively new way for us to review golf shafts. Let us know what you like, what you don’t like, and what suggestions you have for future Cool Clubs S3-Powered reviews.
Also, if there’s a specific shaft you’d like to see us review next, please let us know.
from MyGolfSpy http://bit.ly/2XENEzC
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2019. ... The Refinance Index decreased 11 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. ... “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen 10 basis points in three weeks, and is now at its highest level in over a month. Borrowers remain extremely sensitive to rate changes, which is why there has been a 28 percent drop in refinance applications over this three-week period. Purchase activity also declined, but remains almost 3 percent higher than a year ago,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Borrowing costs have recently drifted higher because of ebbing geopolitical concerns, as well as signs of strengthening in the U.S. economy, including the recent data pointing to robust retail sales.” Added Fratantoni, “The strong economy and job market is keeping buyer interest high, but rising mortgage rates could add pressure to the budgets of some would-be buyers.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.46 percent from 4.44 percent, with points increasing to 0.44 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. emphasis added
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Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. Once mortgage rates fell more than 50 bps from the highs of last year, a number of recent buyers were able to refinance.  But it would take another significant decrease in rates to see a further increase in refinance activity.
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The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 3% year-over-year. from Calculated Risk http://bit.ly/2KVOwOD
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Garmin Edge 530 and Edge 830 GPS cycling computers announced
Garmin has announced the release of two new GPS cycling computers, the Edge 530 and Edge 830. While a lot of the features mirror existing models, including turn-by-turn navigation, general speed and distance capabilities, and connectivity to heart rate and power devices, the new Edge 530 and Edge 830 also include more advanced performance analytics as well as enhanced mapping capabilities – especially when riding off-road – thanks to preloaded Trailforks data. The Garmin Edge 530 will start at US$300, and the Edge 830 at US$400.
Staying true to its Edge 520 predecessor (which we reviewed back in 2015), the Edge 530 sticks to physical buttons, but the high-resolution color screen grows slightly to 2.6”. And like the Edge 820 it replaces, Edge 830 remains a touchscreen device, and Garmin says the new 2.6” display is now more responsive when wet or when you’re wearing gloves. The touchscreen capability also aids in initial setup and on-the-bike route planning, which is unique to the 830 model. Both models, however, use crowdsourced ride data to automatically select routes that are most popular with other Edge users.
Both new Garmin Edge computers feature automatic crash notifications to selected recipients (if paired with the companion app and programmed to do so), as well as compatibility with Garmin’s Varia rear-facing radar unit. Photo: James Huang.
Both updated Edge computers place an emphasis on providing more information to the end-user, both during and after a ride.
To help show that there is an end in sight, The new ClimbPro feature will help answer the “Are we there yet?” question on ascents by showing the remaining elevation gain and grade for preloaded climbs. This is meant to help riders adjust their efforts accordingly, instead of just flipping it on those days when you feel like you still have an eternity of steep grade ahead. And if you’re riding at a higher altitude than normal, there’s even a function that supposedly indicates how your acclimation process is progressing.
The Garmin Edge 530 (left) sticks with the same button layout as the Edge 520, while the Edge 830 (right) continues with the touchscreen format of its predecessor. Photo: James Huang.
Garmin has also expanded on built-in safety and tracking feature for both new devices. Incident detection will automatically alert designated contacts if the device senses that you’ve crashed, and group messaging and tracking features not only help you keep track of riding buddies, but let selected recipients know where you are as well, in real time. And when you’ve made a quick stop for a coffee and a pastry, an alert will notify your smartphone if your bike has been moved.
For the mountain bikers out there, mountain bike models of the Edge 530 and Edge 830 will come preloaded with Trailforks data, allowing users to view maps of trails and trail ratings from over 80 countries, directly on the device itself. A new Forksight feature even displays upcoming intersections if you stop mid-ride. Mountain bikers can now even get bragging rights from new metrics that track their jump count, jump distance, and hang time.
Power meter users will be pleased to see advanced metrics available directly on the Garmin Edge 530 and Edge 830 displays. And for better or worse, the on-screen menu formats are mostly unchanged, with nearly all setup functions performed directly on the device instead of through a companion app as is the case with Wahoo’s computers. Regardless, both color screens are admirably sharp and easy to read in bright sunlight. Photo: James Huang.
As usual, ride data can be uploaded to various third-party services like Strava, TrainingPeaks, and Garmin Connect for post-ride analysis. The previous four weeks of rides can also be reviewed right on the Edge computers, helping users to balance their training by breaking down the rides into low aerobic, high aerobic, and anaerobic efforts. The two computers also can be configured to provide notifications for when to refuel and rehydrate. I’d say this is where a lot of us could use the gentle reminders – and I sure hope this means it will tell me I need to rest and eat a lot more.
Additional apps can be added to the Edge 530 and Edge 830 through the Connect IQ store, including (but not limited to) AccuWeather, Strava, Komoot, Wikiloc, and Yelp.
Uploaded training plans can guide you through preplanned workouts. On-screen prompts make for simple turn-by-turn navigation, too. Photo: Garmin.
In addition to the release of the new Edge devices, Garmin also has added the new Speed Sensor 2 and Cadence Sensor 2 to the lineup of compatible accessories. Both wireless sensors utilize ANT+ and BLE for easy pairing with Edge devices, and they can also be used with a number of training and fitness apps, or the Garmin Connect mobile app. Each sensor will cost US$40, and there’s a bundle option that includes both for US$70. And of course, the Edge 530 and Edge 830 will both also work with Garmin’s existing Varia range of wireless lights and rear-facing radar sensors. Supplemental electrical contacts built into the mounting interface of each unit provides compatibility with Garmin’s Edge Charge battery pack, too, in case the device’s 20-hour maximum claimed battery life isn’t quite enough.
Much like how I rely on a smart phone to tell me when I have a meeting or an appointment, monitor my sleep cycle, and, well, even track my bike rides, the new Edge devices seem to make it so the user relies directly on the Edge 530 and 830 as much as possible, without ever having to pull out your phone.
CyclingTips global technical editor James Huang has both devices on hand, and will be doing an in-depth review shortly.
www.garmin.com
Curious about your jump height, distance, and hang time? The new Garmin Edge 530 and Edge 830 can provide those details as well. Photo: Garmin.
Garmin’s revamped cadence sensor is significantly slimmer than the first-generation unit. Photo: Garmin.
The new Speed Sensor 2 is notably smaller as well. Photo: Garmin.
The post Garmin Edge 530 and Edge 830 GPS cycling computers announced appeared first on CyclingTips.
from CyclingTips http://bit.ly/2XG6BSt
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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3 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Whirlpool Tub
Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com
Are you buying your first whirlpool bathtub? Let us help you narrow down the choices. Start by asking yourself the following questions:
Will it fit in the bathroom? Make sure to measure your bathroom before you even look at a whirlpool, including any space you might gain taking down dividing walls or showers. “Most whirlpools come in three standard sizes,” says Morey. “Five feet, five and a half and six. But you can’t just consider the tub size — they’re all designed to be dropped into a deck, and that will take up more space, with the bare minimum adding at least a half-inch to your measurements on all sides.
“If you think you’d like to hold a lot of stuff like candles and oils near the water, you’ll also need extra space on the deck,” says Morey. “If you’re over six feet tall, you may want to forfeit deck space for more tub room.” Source: HGTV
Is your current heating system enough? If you choose to heat your whirlpool with your existing in-home heating system, make sure it can handle the amount of water needed to fill the whirlpool. With an external system, the water in the tub will get cool quickly due to the circulating jets, so you will need to frequently refill the tub with hot water. A 50 gallon quick recovery system should be sufficient.
The other option is a self-heating system. A self-heating whirlpool comes with its own internal heating system that circulates the tub water and reheats when necessary. This is a good energy-saving option and the best way to keep your water temperature consistent. Source: DoItYourself
Which type of jet should you pick? Choose between water jets or air jets. Water-jet whirlpool tubs force water through jets, giving more pressure and a forceful massage. In air-jet whirlpool tubs, air is forced through tiny holes for a lighter massage. A combination whirlpool tub uses both, but will be more expensive and may use more energy.
One drawback of water-jet and combination tubs is that you can’t use bath salts or oils, as these will damage the pumping mechanism.
Another water-jet and combination tub drawback is that some water stays in the jets, and mold can develop if they’re not regularly cleaned out. Source: WikiHow
We can help you figure out which brand or type of whirlpool tub will work best for your needs. Find out more when you call us today!
  Contact: Perfect Bath Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641 Calgary, Alberta Email: [email protected]
The post 3 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Whirlpool Tub appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.
from Perfect Bath Canada http://bit.ly/2W6LBE4
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Photo gallery: The gravel and dust of the 2019 Tro-Bro Leon
While much of the road cycling world has been focused on the Amstel Gold Race in recent days, that Dutch one-dayer wasn’t the only race of note over the Easter long weekend. With its modest UCI 1.1 ranking, Tro-Bro Leon is small fry compared with Amstel and the other Ardennes Classics, but what it lacks in stature it more than makes up for with character.
Raced in the Brittany region of north-west France, Tro-Bro Leon features a charming combination of coastline and countryside and is defined by many kilometres of narrow, gravel farm roads. Monday’s 36th edition covered a total of 205km and featured no fewer than 27 gravel sectors. It was won in a reduced bunch sprint by Andrea Vendrame (Androni Giocattoli-Sidermec), the very first Italian to win the race. Follow the link for full results from the 2019 Tro-Bro Leon.
Photographer extraordinaire Kristof Ramon was at the race and captured the wonderful images you see below.
Follow the links to see galleries from the 2014, 2016 and 2018 editions of Tro-Bro Leon.
The post Photo gallery: The gravel and dust of the 2019 Tro-Bro Leon appeared first on CyclingTips.
from CyclingTips http://bit.ly/2UPB7wl
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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DOMS
Sneak attack soreness! Or…more officially known as DOMS.
The post DOMS appeared first on Under Armour.
from Under Armour https://undrarmr.co/2IOVfaH
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Endorphins
You definitely know this feeling, now learn the word.
The post Endorphins appeared first on Under Armour.
from Under Armour https://undrarmr.co/2GAZ0ir
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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The weekly spin: Deconstructing Mathieu van der Poel’s improbable Amstel Gold victory
It was one of the most thrilling finishes of a spring classic in modern history. After trailing by one minute with three kilometers remaining, cyclocross world champion Mathieu van der Poel, in his Amstel Gold Race debut, towed a chase group back into contention and improbably caught and passed the leaders with 125 meters remaining. Though there had been riders on his wheel, no one could come around him.
Upon crossing the line, the Corendon-Circus rider put a hand on to his helmet and shook his head in disbelief before he came to a stop in front of a gaggle of journalists and collapsed to the ground in a state of ecstasy and exhaustion.
Eurosport commentators Matt Stephens and Rob Hatch vacillated between astonishment and speechlessness. “He was out of it. He was finished. He was done. It was never supposed to happen,” Hatch said. “That was one of most incredible wins you are ever likely to see in the history of professional cycling.”
“Stunning,” Stephens said. “I have never seen a finish like it in my life. I’m lost for words.”
Even van der Poel, a rider who has been winning with great regularity since he was a teenager — a rider who won in his debut appearances at Dwars door Vlaanderen and Brabantse Pijl in the weeks before Amstel Gold Race — was in a state of shock.
“I can’t believe it.” Those were van der Poel’s first words after crossing the line. “I went full gas, and hoped the leaders would start to look at each other. It’s unbelievable.”
You’ve gotta want it more than your last breath pic.twitter.com/TMtkW3GKOz
— Mathieu Van der Poel (@mathieuvdpoel) April 22, 2019
Moments earlier, Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe of Deceuninck-Quick Step, winner of eight races this season including Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo, had looked poised for victory, almost certain to out-sprint his breakaway companion, Astana’s Jakob Fuglsang.
Instead, with EF’s Simon Clarke on his wheel, a hard-charging van der Poel caught and passed Alaphilippe and Fuglsang and held off what was left of his chase group to take the biggest road victory of his career. Clarke finished second, while Fuglsang rounded out the podium. Alaphilippe, who moments earlier seemed assured to win, finished fourth — out of the flowers.
But how? How did it happen?
In the days that have passed, there have been theories and allegations about incorrect time gaps, improper drafting of caravan vehicles, and curiously superhuman efforts.
The reality, however, is different. What took place in the final 10km of the Amstel Gold Race is a tale of over-reliance on race radios, the shuffling and reshuffling of chase groups, narrow roads, shifting wind directions, and most importantly, a disastrous tactical stalemate.
What’s clear is that the 54th Amstel Gold Race, and its winner, did not follow the script cycling fans are accustomed to.
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A win for the ages #agr2019
A post shared by FloBikes (@flobikes) on Apr 21, 2019 at 8:31am PDT
DYNAMICS AND DRAMA
To start, let’s focus on what we know to be true: Alaphilippe was suffering from leg cramps. Fuglsang sat on Alaphilippe’s wheel for the final few kilometers, much of it into a headwind. Various chasing groups behind them — Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) and Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott), a soloing Max Schachmann (Bora-Hansgrohe), and Clarke and Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) — were all over the road, and created confusion.
And in a bid to hold off a hard-charging van der Poel, Alaphilippe started what was left of his sprint too early.
In the end, van der Poel’s victory hinged on several factors, many out of his control. But the one thing that remained in his control was the persistent belief that he was the strongest man in the race.
“I didn’t believe anymore that I was racing for the win,” van der Poel said. “Only in the finishing straight did I see them all riding up ahead. I played it all or nothing, and it became everything.”
The Amstel Gold Race, the biggest event in the Netherlands, is unique among the spring classics. Though there are no long climbs, the undulating course, originally designed in the 1960s to connect the Amstel breweries of the Limburg region, delivers nearly 3,500m (11, 500 feet) of elevation gain across 35 short, sometimes steep climbs. At 266km, the Amstel Gold Race carries the distance, if not the distinction, of pro cycling’s Monument Classics.
Much of the race takes place on roads so narrow that they resemble bike paths, with more twists and turns and road furniture per kilometer than any major event on the calendar. Oftentimes the battle to get into position before a climb is as demanding as the climb itself, particularly when the southern winds are blowing. This year’s edition was unseasonably warm, with temperatures reaching 24°C (75°F) — not quite hot, but a shock to the system for some.
The last time there was a Dutch winner at Amstel Gold Race, Mathieu van der Poel was six years old. His father, Adrie van der Poel, also a former world cyclocross champion, won the race in 1990, four years before Mathieu was born, by surprising two breakaway riders at the line. It’s a race with special meaning to his family, and so back in December, when formulating his spring classics campaign, the young phenom chose to compete at Amstel Gold, rather than Paris-Roubaix; it was that important to him to leave an impression on home soil in the Dutch national champion’s jersey.
“I don’t know how many times I’ll be able to have this opportunity in my career,” he’d said, though after Sunday’s performance, it seems as though he’ll likely have several more chances.
Van der Poel emerged as the winner, but truth be told, he had not ridden a perfect race — far from it.
One of the big pre-race favorites, particularly after winning Brabantse Pijl ahead of Alaphilippe and Tim Wellens on Wednesday, van der Poel got antsy and attacked on the Gulperberg climb with 45km remaining. Astana’s Gorka Izagirre marked the move but refused to work with the Dutchman, and instead, they dangled a few seconds off the front for about six kilometers.
“I hoped I could break open the race before the Kruisberg,” van der Poel said. “I knew it was a crucial point. I wanted to make sure I got over it at the front. I got away with [Izagirre] but he wouldn’t work.”
Van der Poel went on the attack on the Gulperberg climb with 45km remaining, but Astana’s Gorka Izagirre marked the move.
When the race reached the next climb, the Kruisberg, van der Poel was in no position to follow an attack from Dries Devenyns, with Alaphilippe on his wheel; that move drew out Fuglsang and Matteo Trentin (Mitchelton-Scott). As Alaphilippe rode clear on the Eyserbosweg with 36km remaining and only Fuglsang could follow, what looked to be the winning selection had been made; the same pair that battled for victory at Strade Bianche on March 9.
Trentin dropped back and linked up with 2015 Amstel Gold winner Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) and Mike Woods (EF Education First). Van der Poel was further back, and as the kilometers ticked by and there was no real organized chase, the Dutch phenom looked to be out of contention.
Woods was soon dropped by Kwiatkowski, and drifted back to take up the work at the front to set up Alberto Bettiol and Simon Clarke. However, that chase group had danger men sitting on, including Philippe Gilbert (Deceuninck-Quick Step), Daryl Impey (Mitchelton-Scott), and Dylan van Baarle (Team Sky).
Up ahead, the dynamics and drama from Strade Bianche resurfaced between the two leaders.
Though it’s a shorter race, with an uphill finish, there was no question who was the faster finisher at Piazza del Campo in Siena. On the steep ramps of the Via Santa Caterina climb, Alaphilippe jumped away to finish alone. After the race, Fuglsang complained that Alaphilippe did not contribute equally to their breakaway. Two weeks later, Alaphilippe proved to be the fastest finisher from a group of 11 at Milan-San Remo. His finishing speed was never a question.
After they went clear Sunday, Fuglsang reminded Alaphilippe of how things had transpired in Tuscany. “I told him when we went that he had to pull,” Fuglsang said. “And that this time I should win instead of him.”
Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) and Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick Step) were clear on the Keutenberg with around 30km remaining.
The gap to Kwiatkowski and Trentin stabilized at around 20 seconds, with the van der Poel group of about 25 riders another 30 seconds back, and as the race progressed, Gilbert was unable to contain the action from his group. On the final ascent of the Cauberg with 15km to go, Schachmann jumped away, trailed by Clarke and Bauke Mollema. Deceuninck’s team tactic was over; it would all hinge on Alaphilippe.
Up ahead, the mind games began. Fuglsang knew he had to either get rid of Alaphilippe or sit on and force the Frenchman to take him to the line. Ditch him, or let him whither in the wind.
On the final climb, the Bemelerberg, with about seven kilometers remaining, Fuglsang attacked to no avail. Alaphilippe was forced to dig deep, but he stuck to the Dane’s wheel. Behind, cameras showed van der Poel working his way up through the other riders.
With 6km remaining, Eurosport’s Matt Stephens and Rob Hatch commented that things “hadn’t quite worked out” for Van der Poel on the day, though he was poised for a ”solid” top-10 finish; instead it was very much looking like a race for third place between Kwiatkowski, Trentin, Schachmann, Mollema, and Clarke. And, at the moment, all of that was accurate and correct.
With 5km to go, the race director’s car pulled up alongside Alaphilippe and Fuglsang; assuming the information they were providing the riders was based on the same GPS data displayed on the televised raced feed, their gap was 46 seconds to Kwiatkowski and Trentin, and 1:10 to Schachmann.
With 4.6km to go, Fuglsang attacked again, hoping to catch Alaphilippe off guard. No dice. Fuglsang promptly got on his race radio, and was given the order — quit working. Sit on. A clearly frustrated Alaphilippe had words for Fuglsang, but the Dane refused to take the bait. It was a sensible strategy given their 40-second advantage, particularly as flags could be seen flapping in a headwind direction.
Between 2.5km to go and 1km to go, with Alaphilippe chipping away at the front, into the wind, their time gap dropped quickly — so much so that the splits were changing faster than they could be updated. In hindsight, it’s clear just how much Alaphilippe slowed the pace when Fuglsang quit working, and how much Fuglsang’s efforts had been driving their breakaway.
Behind, Van der Poel was driving a group that contained Romain Bardet (Ag2r La Mondiale), Alessandro De Marchi (CCC), Bjorg Lambrecht (Lotto-Soudal), and Valentin Madouas  (Groupama-FDJ). In between them, Kwiatkowski rode away from Trentin just as Schachmann had finally reached Trentin’s rear wheel.
And this is where things really got crazy.
Inside the final 2km — 1.5km to go for Alaphilippe and Fuglsang — the time gaps began plummeting. Van der Poel and his group caught onto Trentin and Schachmann; the gap from Alaphilippe and Fuglsang to Kwiatkowski was reported as 23 seconds, and 28 seconds to Trentin, Schachmann, van der Poel, Clarke, and Mollema. However, a close watch on replay will show that those time gaps were fluctuating rapidly on the slight rise before the finish.
Gap doesn’t even start to come down until 3k to go… #AmstelGold2019 pic.twitter.com/VHQnU6RB3Q
— Georgie Francis (@georgief) April 22, 2019
Fuglsang returned to the front to pull as the leaders approached 1.3km to go, but he rode slowly; Stephens would describe it as “walking pace.” As they made the final lefthand turn into a slightly downhill finish, they rode into a tail-crosswind. Downhill with a tailwind is generally a welcome reprieve after 266km of racing, but Fuglsang and Alaphilippe would quickly learn that by that point they had grossly misjudged their advantage.
“I said to them in the car, when they didn’t want me to pull anymore, that they needed to give me the times to the group behind,” Fuglsang said. “They told me in the last kilometer that they were 20 seconds behind. I looked behind me and saw Kwiatkowski 10 meters back. That’s not 20 seconds.”
At 800m to go, Kwiatkowski caught on, and for a brief moment, it looked to be a three-rider sprint, just ahead of the van der Poel group. And then, suddenly, inexplicably, the race came back together at the front. Alaphilippe was driving the lead group, looking backward, over his shoulder; van der Poel was driving the chase group, also looking over his shoulder. With an incredible demonstration of power and determination, the Dutch champion began sprinting at nearly 500 meters from the line; he made the catch just before the 100 meters to go sign.
Van der Poel couldn’t believe he’d sprinted for the victory.
“I wanted to sprint for the podium,” van der Poel said. “I felt that I still had good legs. When I reached the finishing straight, I saw the leaders 100 meters ahead of me. I started sprinting at 400 meters from the line. I tried to surprise them. I was incredibly lucky that the wind was at my back, it allowed me to keep my speed to the line.”
At Strade Bianche, the cat-and-mouse between Fuglsang and Alaphilippe allowed Wout van Aert to catch back on in the final kilometer, though he was promptly dropped again on the final climb. At Amstel Gold Race, their tactical stalemate allowed first Kwiatkowski, and then what was left of the chase group, to all catch back on. For Alaphilippe, it was an unmitigated disaster.
“Honestly, I don’t know what happened,” Alaphippe told Het Nieuwsblad. “I gave the maximum from the moment I attacked to the finish. Jakob and I worked well together, and I thought we would sprint for victory. I thought we had a 45-second lead three kilometers from the finish line, and it would suffice.”
SEARCHING FOR ANSWERS
On a difficult day where former world champion Peter Sagan abandoned and current world champion Alejandro Valverde finished outside of the top 50 for the first time at any race since May 2016, Mathieu van der Poel — a rider who has been criticized in the cyclocross community for giving up when the chips were down and victory appeared impossible —  defied all odds and took an impossible victory.
In the aftermath of such a surprising finish, there were allegations that van der Poel’s group must have received assistance from motorbikes and caravan vehicles. “I wonder what happened,” Klaas Lodewyck, director at Deceuninck- Quick Step, told Sporza. “The last information we received on the radio was that Alaphilippe and Fuglsang had a lead of 40 seconds about three kilometers before the finish. Normally that group could not return. I saw that there were a lot of cars and motorcycles between the first group and the pursuers, while that is not necessary in the final phase of this race.”
De eerste beelden in de laatste 5 kilometer zijn geschoten door de heli. Geen motoren te zien in de buurt van het groepje VDP. pic.twitter.com/Qcn9DEWaWJ
— Thijs Zonneveld (@thijszonneveld) April 22, 2019
However, as Dutch journalist Thijs Zonneveld explained in a series of tweets, assembled here, there was nothing visible in the available TV pictures that looked out of the ordinary.
“Conclusion: Yes, there were two motos between the front runners and van der Poel,” Zonneveld wrote. “But they were logically there because there were also small groups among them. Van der Poel could not stay behind for a long time. They sat there and he drove past them.
“Are camera engines sometimes too close to the race?” Zonneveld continued. “Yes, for sure. Leaders, in particular, are regularly favored. Did something strange happen in the Amstel during than der Poel’s pursuit? That is certainly not apparent from the TV images. Alaphilippe, Fuglsang, and their teams have to look to themselves. They slowed the pace so much that both Kwiatkowski and the van der Poel group could return.”
Kwiatkowski and Trentin spent much of the final 30km stuck between the two leaders and the chase group behind.
Alaphilippe struck a defiant tone in his post-race interviews, telling Het Nieuwsblad that while he’d been cramping, and while Fuglsang sat on, the idea that a 35-second gap could be closed in two kilometers bordered on “impossible.”
“I’m not disappointed that I didn’t win, but I’m disappointed in the way I did,” Alaphilippe said. “At 2km from the finish, the director of the race told us we had a 35-second lead. That means those other riders raced 15 seconds per kilometer faster than we did. I think that’s impossible.”
Things weren’t all that much clearer for the race winner.
“At three kilometers from the finish, nobody could tell me what position I was riding in, in this chaotic final,” van der Poel told Het Nieuwsblad. “Not the race radio, not the team car. I was hoping that they would start looking at each other at the front, because you are sitting there with big names. I rose above myself. I felt there was still something in my legs. You notice in such classics that it is very difficult at the end for everyone. On instinct I went again, I just rode away with a group, and we caught them.”
Fuglsang managed to hang on to a podium finish, but he regretted making an “incredible mistake” that saw him lose the opportunity to sprint against Alaphilippe for victory.
Fuglsang, who had also said the time splits they’d received didn’t match what was happening on the road, ultimately blamed his tactical stalemate with Alaphilippe, while claiming that it was the Deceuninck-Quick Step rider who had paid the heavier price.
“I can only say that we have made an incredible mistake in the last three kilometers,” Fuglsang said. “We felt that Kwiatkowski and Trentin would not return. That’s how it sounded in the follow car. It is a shame that I saw a certain second place fall away.
“In the end, [Alaphilippe] is the one who’s lost out today,” he continued. “He would have had a big chance to win if he’d pulled, and I still did most of the work out there. From when he attacked, I was the one who was putting in the most effort because he always said that he was fucked. But he did the same at Strade Bianche, and he still got me there, so that’s the game. That’s the tactic. I managed to get on the podium, and the legs were there, but I still believe that, had I kept doing turns with Alaphilippe a little longer and maybe waited to play until the last kilometer, it would’ve turned out to be a minimum of second place, or possible victory. But that’s cycling.”
Kwiatkowski, who looked to be sprinting for the win with 800 meters to go after chasing for 30km, would finish outside of the top 10; the former world champion said even before van der Poel’s group caught them, he knew just reaching the podium would be his best possible outcome.
“In the last kilometer there wasn’t much going through my mind,” Kwiatkowski said. “My only thoughts were to get on the podium because I knew the big group was coming behind.  I couldn’t think about the win anymore, it was an impossible task with a fresh Alaphilippe and Fuglsang, so I was just doing my best to hold on to arrive at the finish before that group. In the end they caught us, and van der Poel was the strongest.”
VAN DER POEL, THE PHENOM
Though Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège are still to be contested, the Amstel Gold Race marks the end of Mathieu van der Poel’s spring classics debut.
And while cobblestone classics stars such as Sagan and Greg Van Avermaet (CCC) will race Liège, even a victory for either of them would not change this irrefutable fact: With wins at GP Denain, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Brabantse Pijl, and Amstel Gold Race — and fourth-place finishes at Gent-Welvelem and the Ronde van Vlaanderen — van der Poel has had a more successful classics campaign than the Olympic champion, the three-time world champion, and just about everyone else in the sport for that matter.
Alaphilippe, winner at Milan-San Remo and Strade Bianche, could change that with wins at Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, where he will start as the big pre-race favorite.
As for van der Poel, his 2019 road season is more or less over as he shifts gears in preparation for the opening weekend of the UCI Mountain Bike World Cup in Albstadt, Germany, in mid-May, though it’s not been ruled out that he might return for a few road races, such as the Dutch national road championship, in late June, or even the road world championship, in Yorkshire, in late September.
Van der Poel is committed to racing on his mountain bike through the 2020 Olympic Games. Between his Corendon-Circus Pro Continental team, which has signed him through the 2023 season, and his bike sponsor Canyon, there is a full embrace of his unconventional cross-discipline approach.
And yet for all of his accomplishments across cyclocross and now the road, Van der Poel hasn’t won an XCO World Cup event in a discipline where Swiss world champion Nino Schurter reigns supreme. Though he’s beaten Schurter in STXC World Cup events, his closest finish to the Scott-SRAM rider in a cross-country race was in Albstadt in 2017, when van der Poel finished second, 26 seconds back, after a mid-race crash.
Perhaps that will change this year. If van der Poel learned anything in winning the Amstel Gold Race, it’s that the race is never truly over until the finish line.
The post The weekly spin: Deconstructing Mathieu van der Poel’s improbable Amstel Gold victory appeared first on CyclingTips.
from CyclingTips http://bit.ly/2GCFGBh
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Earlier Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April"
From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April
Fifth District manufacturing activity moderated in April, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for the third component index, employment. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the next six months. Survey results suggested continued positive growth in both employment and wages, although these indexes dropped slightly in April. However, firms reported a decline in the average workweek as they continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. Firms expected this difficulty to continue in the coming months. emphasis added
from Calculated Risk http://bit.ly/2GAYP6A
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Things to Do in Boston With Kids
Disclosure: I’ve experienced a few things at no cost over the years. All opinions are my own. This post contains affiliate links. A purchase/click through one of these links may result in a commission paid to us at no additional cost to you. My adopted home city of Boston, Massachusetts is home to many kid-friendly […]
The post Things to Do in Boston With Kids appeared first on Family Travel Magazine.
from Family Travel Magazine http://bit.ly/2ISYPRg
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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Sky’s young guns keep winning in the Alps, the Mur looms: Daily News Digest
Supported by
Welcome to your Daily News Digest. Here’s what’s happening today:
Sky’s youngsters are on a roll at the Tour of the Alps, Pantano breaks silence after suspension, Wiggins praises van der Poel. Those stories and more in today’s Daily News Digest.
Story of the Day: Sky youngsters on a roll in the Alps
Sky’s stable of bright young talents is on a roll at the Tour of the Alps. A day after Tao Geoghegan Hart won the opener, Pavel Sivakov stormed into the race lead after a challenging stage 2.
The 21-year-old Russian, who joined Sky in 2018 after winning the 2017 Baby Giro, hung with a select group that also included big names like Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) and Rafal Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe) going over the biggest climb of the day, and then attacked on the final ascent.
Thanks to his win, Pavel Sivakov will wear not only the leader jersey but also the white jersey of the youth classification!#Tota2019 pic.twitter.com/nNwX5Y2QzV
— Tour of The Alps (@Tourof_TheAlps) April 23, 2019
He took the stage 2 victory four seconds ahead of Jan Hirt (Astana), with Matteo Cattaneo (Androni Giocattoli) finishing third on the day.
Sivakov and Geoghegan Hart, two of Sky’s many star prospects, have spent much of their time in support roles with the British WorldTour squad. Now, like fellow up-and-comer Egan Bernal, they both have pro victories on their palmares – in what will be their final days wearing Sky kit before the team becomes Ineos.
Sivakov leads the Tour of the Alps over Hirt and Cattaneo as the race heads to its third stage, 106 kilometers from Salurn to Baselga di Pinè.
Beauty of Cycling
Sunday’s Amstel Gold Race should go down as one of the best events of the season. Mathieu van der Poel (Corendon-Circus) triumphed after a stunning finale that saw late escapees Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick-Step) and Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) caught on the finishing straight.
Van der Poel went on the attack with around 40km to go, before coming back to the bunch.
Relive the action with a gallery of excellent images from Kristof Ramon and Cor Vos…
Race Radio
Pantano “waiting,” hoping for resolution
Jarlinson Pantano has broken his silence about his suspension for an EPO positive. The 30-year-old Colombian, who returned an adverse analytical in an out-of-competition control, said via Twitter that he is “waiting” and “hoping that everything is resolved,” and thanked those that have shown support.
Pantano last raced at the Volta a Catalunya before his team suspended him following his positive test for EPO. He has a right to have his B sample tested.
Wiggins: Van der Poel could win a Grand Tour one day
Count Bradley Wiggins among those impressed by Mathieu van der Poel’s brilliant road campaign this year. The 2012 Tour de France champion said on his weekly podcast that he thinks van der Poel “could win a Grand Tour one day,” and that the Dutch youngster is “the hottest property in cycling at the moment other than [Julian] Alaphilippe.”
Bradley Wiggins at Driedaagse De Panne in 2015.
Wiggins also touched on the Hour Record. Victor Campenaerts recently broke the mark Wiggins set in 2015. Wiggins has tipped his cap to the new record holder – and now he says it’s time for someone else to take up the challenge.
“I hope someone has the balls to get up and have a go themselves now,” he said. “G [Geraint Thomas] could do it tomorrow with his track craft; [Tom] Dumoulin at some point in the future. It’s whether they’ve got time to invest the time that Victor invested in it, in order to maybe fail.”
Socially Speaking
Reports and results are great to tell the story of what happened in a bike race, but the Arkéa-Samsic Twitter gave us what we were really looking for after Tro-Bro Léon: the pig photo!
The best-placed rider from France’s Brittany region gets to bring home a porcine pal after the beloved one-day race. This year, it was Arkéa’s Romain Hardy.
Meilleur breton du jour, Romain Hardy a gagné un cochon???? #tradition #TroBroLeon pic.twitter.com/E7IW7dTQN8
— Team Arkéa Samsic (@Arkea_Samsic) April 22, 2019
Coming Up
While many of cycling’s most famous climbs are high in the Alps or the Pyrenees, a handful rise up from the Low Countries to greet those brave enough to take on the Spring Classics. One stands tall as the best-known ascent in the Ardennes Classics, a hill climb in Belgium’s French-speaking Wallonia region that runs a mere 1.3 kilometers in length but features an unquestionably brutal average gradient over nine percent.
Anna van der Breggen en route to her fourth straight Flèche Wallonne victory. Photo: ©kramon
The pro peloton will take on the iconic Mur de Huy on Wednesday at La Flèche Wallonne. Over the years, the punchy climb has crowned countless big names as champion of the mid-week Classic. Anna van der Breggen (Boels-Dolmans) and Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quick-Step) triumphed atop the Mur in 2018, and both will be among the favorites this week. Multiple winner Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) and perennial contender Dan Martin (UAE-Team Emirates) are others to watch in the men’s race, while an always dangerous Annemiek van Vleuten (Mitchelton-Scott) and in-form Kasia Niewiadoma (Canyon-SRAM) could threaten Boels’s dominance on the women’s side.
Happy Birthday to …
Tony Martin (Jumbo-Visma) is 34. The German powerhouse counts four world time trial titles and five Tour de France stage victories to his name to go with numerous other big results over the course of his career.
Tony Martin in his TT world champion’s jersey at the 2013 Tour de France. Photo: ©kramon
In case you missed it …
One-of-a-kind kicks: The unique beauty of FCCS custom cycling shoes
Feature Image: The final push up the Mur de Huy at the 2018 Flèche Wallonne. Photo: ©kramon
The post Sky’s young guns keep winning in the Alps, the Mur looms: Daily News Digest appeared first on CyclingTips.
from CyclingTips http://bit.ly/2XDuIB8
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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A few Comments on March New Home Sales
New home sales for March were reported at 692,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). This is the second highest sales rate for this cycle (just behind November 2017). This was well above the consensus forecast, however sales for the previous three months were revised down. With these revisions, sales increased slightly, just 0.7%, in 2018 compared to 2017.   And my guess is we haven't seen the peak of this cycle yet. Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 667,000 Annual Rate in February.
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Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows new home sales for 2018 and 2019 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Sales in March were up 3.0% year-over-year compared to March 2018.
Year-to-date (just through March), sales are up 1.7% compared to the same period in 2018.  The comparison will be most difficult in Q1, so this is a solid start for 2019. And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.
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The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through March 2019. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.   The gap has persisted even though distressed sales are down significantly, since new home builders focused on more expensive homes. I still expect this gap to slowly close.   However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. If not, then the gap will persist.
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Another way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales. This ratio was fairly stable from 1994 through 2006, and then the flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated and depressed new home sales. (Note: This ratio was fairly stable back to the early '70s, but I only have annual data for the earlier years). In general the ratio has been trending down since the housing bust, and this ratio will probably continue to trend down over the next few years. Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different. from Calculated Risk http://bit.ly/2US4PRl
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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New Home Sales increased to 692,000 Annual Rate in March
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 692 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.
"Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.5 percent above the revised February rate of 662,000 and is 3.0 percent above the March 2018 estimate of 672,000." emphasis added
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Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
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The months of supply decreased in March to 6.0 months from 6.3 months in February. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is at the top of the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 344,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate."
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On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is a little low.
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The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In March 2019 (red column), 68 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 66 thousand homes were sold in March. The all time high for March was 127 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for March was 28 thousand in 2011. This was well above expectations of 645 thousand sales SAAR, however, sales in the three previous months were revised. I'll have more later today. from Calculated Risk http://bit.ly/2XvAsNk
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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PXG Announces GEN2 Putter Lineup with Improved Fitting System
Given that PXG released GEN2 Irons and then GEN2 Metalwoods, logically it was only a matter of time before the company released GEN2 putters. And so here you go.
Times are changing (Stroke Lab, anyone), but traditionally putter stories are almost entirely about the heads themselves. One could argue that the PXG GEN2 putter story is every bit as much a fitting story.
As PXG Founder and CEO, Bob Parsons points out, “Putts account for roughly 40 percent of shots taken, yet only a small percentage of golfers make an effort to be properly fitted.” I suppose you can chalk a good bit of that up to the mythology that the look and feel characteristics of a putter somehow supersede real-world performance considerations. Via the new fitting platform, which is basically a fitting cart for putters, Parsons says, “we’re working to change that stat.  With the release of our exceptional new PXG GEN2 Putters, we are committed to helping golfers dial-in their preferred putter to help shave strokes off their score.”
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8 Models
That fitting kit pairs eight 100% milled GEN2 putters with three hosel options, and an adjustable fitting shaft to dial-in the perfect length. It’s important to note that the adjustable shaft is a fitting tool only, and isn’t included in the final/take home product.
As you’d expect from a lineup with eight heads, the GEN2 putter lineup features everything from high MOI mallets down to reasonably small blades. The fitting kit allows each of the eight models (Closer, Lucky “D,” Brandon, Mustang, Bat Attack, Mini Gunboat, Gunboat, and Operator) to be mixed and matched with any of PXG’s three hosel styles – double bend, plumbers neck, or heel shaft. The heel shaft option is basically a slant neck. All eight models are available in both black and chrome finish options.
Performance can be further dialed-in by way of interchangeable 5g, 10g, 15g, and 20g titanium and tungsten weights. In the interest of simplifying things for fitters and cleaning things up visually, PXG has moved to larger weights (fewer moving parts) and has positioned them on the sole, which clears the nuts and bolts look at address.
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Pyramid Milling
There’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that face technology matters in a putter. While there are still some that swear by a no-tech milled face, the reality is that nearly every major putter manufacturer has integrated some sort of roll-enhancing, speed-maintaining technology into its putter faces. PXG is no different. The GEN 2 putter lineup features what PXG calls a Variable-sized, Pyramid Milling pattern. According to PXG, the pyramid structures provide more consistent launch and roll characteristics, while at the same time softening feel. As with similar technology from EVNROLL and PING, the objective is to maintain speed, and with it, distance control, on off-center hits.
And yes, no matter how good you think you are – you do miss the center of the putter face every now and again.
Availability and Pricing
PXG GEN2 Putters are available now. Retail price is $425.
For more information, visit PXG.com.
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from MyGolfSpy http://bit.ly/2XBKPPM
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mrrobertforeman · 5 years
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MyGolfSpy Community Case Study: SuperSpeed Golf
What would you say if I told you that you could gain a good 15 to 20 yards by the 4th of July?
I’m guessing some of you would say sign me up. Others, I’m guessing, would wonder if I was out of my mother-blogging mind.
Do you remember our article last summer on SuperSpeed Golf? It’s a unique swing speed training system designed to help you swing faster – a lot faster – almost right away. A SuperSpeed Golf set consists of three weighted shafts – one 20% lighter than your driver, one 10% lighter and one 5% heavier. Following SuperSpeed Golf’s recommended protocols (available on its website), the company says you can gain 3 to 4 MPH in swing speed after just one session, with more significant – and permanent – gains with a longer-term commitment.
Since last fall, seven MyGolfSpy Forum members have been involved in a case study on the long-term effects of using SuperSpeed Golf and the results may stun even the most hardened World Wide Web cynic.
Turbo Neurons
SuperSpeed Golf is neurological in nature – it rewires how quickly your body can respond when you pull the trigger on the golf swing. Technically, it’s known as Overspeed Training.
“A big percentage of our training has nothing to do with changing muscles, changing swing mechanics or anything,” says SuperSpeed co-owner Michael Napoleon. “Those are minor pieces compared to the fact that Overspeed Training, in its essence, just resets the normal reaction speed to a motor pattern.”
Translation: your neurons are turbo-charged into a new normal, and you can swing the club faster. A lot faster.
Each one of our testers was equipped with a SuperSpeed set and a companion swing speed radar to capture their results. Each tester saw a swing speed gain almost immediately, and after the first 6-week session increases ranged from a low of 3% to a high of 11%.
“These are your average weekend warriors,” says Napoleon. “From a physical fitness standpoint, we had a lot of variation. Some of them weren’t going to the gym and weren’t in an active fitness program.”
“The ones that were doing a regular fitness routine kept doing it. The ones that weren’t, weren’t,” adds SuperSpeed co-owner Kyle Shay. “They kept doing what they were doing before. The only variance was the weather.”
Through its research, SuperSpeed has charted out what golfers should see as they go through the program. It starts with an almost immediate jump that continues through what’s called the first Normalization period, which usually lasts about six to eight weeks as players go through the SuperSpeed protocols. After a month-and-a-half to two months, that first jump becomes more or less permanent, and progress hits the first Plateau.
During that first Plateau, swing speeds stay relatively consistent as players continue to work through the protocols. Then somewhere between weeks 15 and 26, players experience a secondary jump in swing speed.
“That second jump – there are a lot more complicated pieces as to why that happens,” says Napoleon. “Some of it’s neurological, some of it can be improvements in ground reaction force sequencing, wrist mechanics, increased stability throughout the swing.”
“It’s a wild thing. People may be in that plateau phase for two months, two-and-a-half months. Every day it’s the same thing and then one day it’s like BOOM, there’s a jump.” – Michael Napoleon, SuperSpeed Golf
Due to weather, work, health, and life in general, four of our testers took the winter off, but three continued with their protocols and, with the help of some coaching from SuperSpeed, each hit their second jump.
“We were really excited to see the second jump happen for the three testers,” says Shay. “We know it’s going to happen for these other guys; they just got stalled out. But again, these are regular Joe golfers with a range of handicaps.”
Kevin, Mike, and Jason
Of the three golfers who stayed with the program all winter, Mike Mock from Wisconsin and Kevin Loughren of Florida experienced the biggest jumps, and are both seeing results where it matters: on the golf course.
“I’m in the high 240’s now, that’s close to 30 yards longer than I used to be,” says Loughren, a 62-year-old minister from Tampa who went from 91 MPH up to 104 on the SuperSpeed radar, and from 88 to the high 90’s on his club’s TrackMan. “There was a big jump in distance early on, and then another one right around the first of the year. I’m a club-and-a-half longer, at least, with my irons now, too.”
Mock, who’s speed jumped from 104 to 115 on the SuperSpeed Radar, is just now getting back on the course after a long, cold winter.
“I went through a club-fitting over the winter and was seeing increased speeds with all my clubs,” he says. “My last seven rounds before starting SuperSpeed I hit 56% of my greens and missed 3% deep. Through my first two rounds this spring I’m hitting 58% of my greens with 16% of my shots missing deep. It’s going to take some time to get used to my new distance gains.”
Unlike Mock, Loughren played throughout the winter, but like Mock, had to make some on-course adjustments.
“There have been a few times where timing was an issue, and my sequencing seemed a bit off,” he says. “And I’ve actually moved back a set of tees because I was hitting it into the trees on the same line as I was hitting it for the last five or six years.”
Jason Bentley of Tennessee – the third tester who used SuperSpeed Golf all winter, saw more modest gains, but did experience the same two-stage jump in speed.
“I’ve seen noticeable distance gains,” says Jason. “Hit my longest drive on Arccos (261 yards) and have seen a few in the 240 to 250 range.”
While not as dramatic as the increases Kevin and Mike experienced, Jason’s swing speed jumped from 89 to 96 MPH. Based on an estimated 2.5 yards per mile-an-hour increase, that’s a potential of 17.5 more yards.
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Napoleon says it’s not uncommon for golfers to experience some wildness as they go through the normalization phases.
“If I change a variable and increase how fast you’re rotating, what you used to do to square the face is now going to leave the face open because the body is moving a lot faster,” he says.
“Generally speaking, if people are going to have an issue, it’s leaving the face open a little bit more. It doesn’t have to do with swinging from the top down or anything like that. It really just has to do with the timing of the release of the club with something that’s moving faster.” – Michael Napoleon, SuperSpeed Golf
“There are definitely ups and downs with the program, but you will get out of it what you put into it,” says Mock. “Having the MyGolfSpy Forum double as a support group definitely helped get me through the stagnant periods where I wasn’t seeing any gains.”
“Do I feel younger? I do,” laughs Loughren. “Our league just started on courses I’ve played a ton of times over the past 12 years, and I already have four career drives.”
A Third Jump?
According to SuperSpeed Golf, the process of Plateau, Jump, and Normalization will continue as long as a golfer continues the protocols.
“In theory, the pattern will continue perpetually, with the jump size getting smaller each time,” says Napoleon. The first jump is around 5%, the second is 3 to 3.5%. The third jump, which may happen in year two of the training, is going to be much smaller, maybe 1.5 to 2%.”
And depending on the timing, the increase can be permanent, even if a golfer stops the training for a while.
“We’ve had players solidly into that first plateau phase for a couple of months – they can stop and maintain their speeds,” says Napoleon. “If you stop right at the edge of the Normalization phase, a lot of times you’ll see regression, so it all depends on where they are when they stop.”
As of now, the MyGolfSpy testers are in a 72-week program, going through protocols designed by SuperSpeed Golf to continue the Jump-Normalization-Plateau process.
“I’ve just finished the 27th week, so I don’t know what comes at the end of the 72 weeks,” says Loughren. “They’ve changed their protocols since last summer, so we’re just starting Level Four, and we’re doing five swings with the current drills. I’m just really happy I’m done with the kneeling swings. I hated those.”
“Realistically I won’t be up to training three times a week during the warm weather,” admits Mock. “Summer is short in Wisconsin, and I know I’ll have other priorities. I’ll probably train one to two times a week during the summer to make sure I maintain my increases.”
“When I started the training, I was working 11-hour days with a 30-minute commute each way,” adds Bentley. “I still didn’t have any problems getting the training in. I estimate I’ve swung that heavy stick 4,000 to 5,000 times!”
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Unintended Consequences
There are drawbacks to newfound swing speed and length, not the least of which is your equipment.
“It definitely changes how you play the game and how you see the golf course,” says Shay. “The only negative we hear from people is they need to get their clubs re-fit for their new game – because if you’re swinging 10 miles an hour faster, your old driver may not fit anymore.”
Case in point is Bentley, who will sport a stiff shaft in his new Callaway Epic Flash driver after years of playing a regular flex.
“My current swing speed (96.5 MPH) is right at the point where I can fit into either a regular or stiff,” he says. “My fitter recommended stiff because it tightened up my dispersion.”
“It’s like when you lose 40 pounds and have to buy new pants,” adds Napoleon. “It doesn’t feel all that bad. You feel better about yourself, and you get to buy a new wardrobe. It’s the same thing with your golf clubs.”
As mentioned earlier, it shouldn’t be a surprise to deal with a bit of wildness as you go through the protocols as the skill part of the golf swing will need time to catch up to the new found speed. All three of our testers experienced periodic wildness to varying degrees.
“Depending on where you start and the way you were sequencing and using the ground, it’ll change,” says Napoleon. “It’ll change in a positive way: we get more vertical force, and we get better peaking orders and rotational elements in the kinematic sequence. But if you’re a player who’s learned to play with deficiencies in those areas, you may have never learned how to swing more efficiently or more athletically, so the skill side has to catch up.”
“We find with high-level players it doesn’t take that long for them to figure out the skill piece to line up the face again to a little faster body rotation. That happens during the Normalization phases when things are adjusting. Once you plateau all of that tends to stabilize.” – Michael Napoleon
What Does This Mean For You?
According to SuperSpeed Golf, the first jump in swing speed happens almost immediately and takes about six weeks or so to become the new normal. And anywhere from 9 to 20 weeks later, a second jump takes hold. Our three testers who worked with SuperSpeed Golf over the winter bear that out, with each seeing a measurable jump immediately and a second jump roughly 21 weeks into the program.
So if you were to start today, you could, in theory, improve your swing speed by 10% or more by Labor Day. That could turn a 100 MPH swing into 110 MPH, and that could mean another 25 yards off the tee and maybe a club to a club-and-half with your irons.
That, my friends, is a real-world game-changer.
Yes, I know we’re all supposed to be super-cynical about everything, and we all know there’s a wee bit of voodoo in every OEMs claims about hotter-faster-longer, but data doesn’t lie. The testers in MyGolfSpy’s case study are regular guys, just like you and me. None of them are internet marvels who smack it 300 down the middle every time, and none of them are what you’d call ath-a-letes.
But every one of them is swinging the club appreciably faster now than they were last fall.
“These guys are regular people, they weren’t working on stuff in the gym and weren’t like really active and physically fit,” says Napoleon. “But our goal for this is that anyone could pick this up, regardless of where they are in terms of skill level, fitness level – it really doesn’t matter where you’re starting, you’re going to get better with this.”
When you look at the time and money invested and the return these people received, if you can go from 91 to 104, you’re a different golfer, and you’re playing a different game.
And you’re telling Father time to take a hike.
from MyGolfSpy http://bit.ly/2PrmxoP
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