YieldMax Rotation Strategy – 4/27/24 Update

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Are the Bulls Ready To Run ?

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday. Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday confirming day 72 as the DCL. Stocks are now running into resistance at the 50 day MA. The decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.…

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Stocks Finding Their Footing

Stocks formed a swing high on Thursday. Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and then higher again on Wednesday to signal day 72 as the DCL. However, as we discussed here, that the decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply. So stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. It appears that stocks are beginning to…

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Daily Cycle Low

Stocks closed love the 10 day MA on Tuesday. Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low on Monday, so closing above the 10 day MA signals day 72 as the DCL. The decline into the day 72 DCL did cause the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out…

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Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday. Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 72 as the DCL. We will also need to watch the 50 day MA. A close above the 50 day M would shift the odds that the ICL has been set. But if stocks…

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YieldMax Rotation Strategy – Update

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The 4/20/24 Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar The dollar is in the process consolidating below the 106.25 level. The dollar did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower at the day 24 low, so the status of the daily cycle is not clear.  The dollar is still stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar is in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of…

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Bitcoin Bottom?

BTC formed a swing low. BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.  BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in…

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Stocks Due For A Bounce

Stocks continued lower on Tuesday. Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 69 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s narrow range day eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 5079.84 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report what stocks need to…

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Correction

At 25 weeks, stocks are in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks formed a weekly swing high, broke below the weekly trend line and closed below the 10 week MA to signal the intermediate cycle decline. Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline. Oftentimes an intermediate cycle decline retraces to the 38 fib level, which coincides with a previous…

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YieldMax Rotation Strategy - Update

We discussed YieldMax ETF’s back on 4/1/24. We noted that there are trade offs. One trade off is limiting capital appreciation for consistent monthly dividends. Another trade off to consistent monthly dividends is exposure to full participation of drawdowns.  My YieldMax Rotation Strategy is to use a bullish/bearish crossover of the 10/20 MA’s as the buy/sell signal limits the downside drawdowns…

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Daily Cycle Low

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 65, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks can close back above the 10 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its tail uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. However, I do have longer…

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Bitcoin Breakout - Update

BTC broke bullishly out of its triangle consolidation on Monday. However, it did not deliver bullish follow through on Tuesday. BTC formed a swing high on Tuesday and was below the upper stem at the time of this post, negating Monday’s breakout. It is possible that BTC was backtesting the 10 day MA. With BTC is in a daily uptrend, a swing low and a close back above the upper stem would indicate…

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Bitcoin Breakout

BTC is in the process of breaking bullishly out of its triangle consolidation. BTC is currently in a daily uptrend. A close above the upper stem will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.

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Change Of Behavior- Update

Stocks signaled a change in behavior by closing below the 20 day MA on Thursday. However, stocks did not deliver any bearish follow through on Friday. Instead stocks rallied and closed back above the 20 day MA. Thursday was day 61 placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks are currently being contained by the 10 day MA. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will…

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Change Of Behavior

Prior to Thursday … Any dips down to the 20 day MA were bought (BTFD). That changed on Thursday. Stocks closed convincingly below the 20 day MA on Thursday. At 61 days that means that stocks are now seeking out their daily cycle low. We will be watching the rising 50 day MA for possible support for the DCL to form. With Thursday being day 61, stocks should form their daily cycle low over the…

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Was That It?

Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday — which has me wondering if that was it? Tuesday was day 59, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. Stocks did break the daily cycle trend line and the10 day MA has begun to dip lower –which are some of the criteria needed for a DCL to form. Stocks are currently in a…

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