Curlin Stakes Analysis and Picks

Curlin Stakes: R4 on Saratoga's July 31st, 2015 card. $100,000 purse for 3yos who have not won a graded stakes over a mile in 2015. 9 furlongs. #1 Battle Midway: (30-1) Zito trained/ridden by Jose Ortiz. This gray Quality Road gelding went unraced as a 2yo and has 1 win in 4 starts of his 3yo season. His sole win came in a MSW, and he was 4th last out in the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park. #2 Stanford: (5-2) Pletcher trained/ridden by John Velazquez, this bay son of Malibu Moon out of a Distorted Humor mare won 1 of 2 starts as a 2yo (a MSw) and finished out of the money in the G2 Saratoga Special. He has been 1st or 2nd in all 5 starts this year, winning an AlwOC, 2nd in the Islamorada H @ GP, 2nd in Louisiana Derby G2 @ FG, 2nd in Easy Goer @ Bel, and won the 8.5f Long Branch at Monmouth on 7/11. Highest earnings of the field st $289k #3 Tekton: (3-1) Dutrow trained/ridden by Alex Cintron. This bay Bernardini colt out of a Not For Love mare is 4:1-1-0 in 2015, most recently 2nd to Mr. Jordan in the G3 Pegasus @ Mth. #4 Unrivaled: (15-1) Montoya trained/ridden by Jose Lezcano. This bay colt by Super Saver out of an Unbridled mare is 4:1-1-1 in 2015. Most recently 2nd in the Parx Derby at 1m70y on 5/02. #5 Smart Transition: (5-1) Shirreffs trained/ridden by Junior Alvarado. This bay Smart Strike colt out of a Crimson Tide mare was unraced at 2. He bears a 2015 record of 5:1-1-1. Broke his maiden in his 3rd start going 8.5f, he was 4th last out in the G3 Dwyer at Belmont. #6 King of New Yor: (12-1) McPeek trained/ridden by Corey Lanerie. This bay Street Boss colt out of a Dixieland Band mare has the most 2015 starts at 6, with 2 wins, 2 2nds, and 1 3rd. 3rd highest earnings of the field at $106k. 4th last out in the American Derby G3 at Arlington on 7/12 on the turf. Will likely appreciate swith back to dirt. #7 Tommy Macho: (2-1) Pletcher trained/ridden by Edgar Prado. This bay Macho Uno colt out of an Awesome Again mare has a 2015 record of 4:2-0-2. 2nd highest earnings at $162k. 3rd last out in G3 Dwyer at Belmont. Won a Belmont Alw at 8.5f. Should appreciate the stretch out in distance. Picks: I absolutely love the pedigrees of Smart Transition, King of New York, and Tommy Macho. Playing Saratoga, I like looking for upsets and that's exactly what im looking for in King of New York. I think he is extremely underrated, meanwhile Smart Transition seems overrated. He has not impressed me, at least not on the east coast. Im looking at a 6-7 exacta box, or perhaps a 2-6-7 tri box. Id also put money to win on King of New York. I think we will see a new side of this colt today.

I need this on my wall.

I

Historical.

“And here it is! The 37-year wait is over! American Pharoah is finally the one! American Pharoah has won The Triple Crown!”

Dr. Fager for anonymous. 

This week’s cover of Sports Illustrated

Trip To Paris and Graham Lee (left) made the trip around Ascot and landed won the Gold Cup. Royal Ascot meeting Day 3, 18 June 2015.

Kingfisher and Ryan Moore (purple silks) flew home in second, with the favoured Forgotten Rules and Pat Smullen (right) third. Full result here.

Photo: Edward Whitaker

American Pharoah’s wins from Maiden to Crown.

G1 Del Mar Futurity (x)

G1 Frontrunner Stakes (x)

G2 Rebel Stakes (x)

G1 Arkansas Derby (x)

G1 Kentucky Derby (x)

G1 Preakness Stakes (x)

G1 Belmont Stakes (x)

And people say its just for the money. We all needed this.

“This is for the horse. This is for the sport of horse racing”

Reblogging from main account

I cant believe it happened. Ive been waiting for this since i was 8. It hasnt happened im 37 years. Im so grateful i was at the track to witness American Pharoah win the triple crown. Its so surreal. I still can’t believe it happened. You should’ve heard the crowd, i was right on the rail and as Pharoah came down the stretch, people were cheering their hearts out. I needed this. Racing needed this. This sport has its highs and lows, but today was something extraordinary. I will never, ever forget it.

(via https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2tpXReeq6M)

New video!

Kentucky Derby - Late Scratch

International Star is a late scratch from the Derby. The Fusaichi Pegasus colt starting from post 12 had the most Derby points at 171.

Derby Brackets Part 3

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#1 Dortmund vs. Carpe Diem - Dortmund

Dortmund has done nothing wrong and won under various conditions. The Big Brown colt who is 6 for 6 showed us his will to win when having seemingly lost to Firing Line and then battling back to win by a head in the Robert B Lewis G3 and earning a Bris speed figure of 101. Carpe Diem, on the other hand has to have the race run perfectly suited to him to win; this will not be the case in the Derby what with a 20 horse field.

#2 Carpe Diem vs. Mubtaahij - Carpe Diem

Both horses seem to be incredibly strong, though both their recent works believe me to think that Carpe Diem is the better horse as of right now. Also, Mubtaahij might not be at his peak right now due to the flight from Dubai to Amsterdam and then from Amsterdam to Chicago (followed by a trailer from Arlington Park to Churchill Downs). A trip like that can really take a lot out of a horse. Gonna have to go with Carpe Diem on this one.

#3 International Star vs. American Pharoah - American Pharoah

This is no question. The competition Pharoah has faced is much stronger than that of International Star’s competition. Pharoah has better works, better times in races, and is the better horse overall.

#4 Tencendur vs. American Pharoah - American Pharoah

Obvious once again. Pharoah has won all of his derby preps while Tencendur’s best effort came in the Wood Memorial in which he finished second. 

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Day 2 of the Kentucky Derby Brackets

#1 Dortmund vs. El Kabeir - Dortmund

This one is obvious, really. Dortmund is a freak, he is 6 for 6 and is still improving. I don’t see him losing the Derby, much less losing to El Kabeir. El Kabeir, on the other hand, lost the Wood Memorial last out and is 2 for 4 in his sophomore season. His two wins this year come only in G3s while Dortmund won the SA Derby, as well as the two other Santa Anita Derby preps.

#2 Metaboss vs. Carpe Diem - Carpe Diem

Besides Carpe Diem’s raw talent, Metaboss is not even running in the Derby (these brackets were started before the post positions were announced).

#3 Frosted vs. Mubtaahij - Mubtaahij

As much hype as there is about Frosted, he only has one impressive win after his minor throat procedure, jockey, and track change (which came in the Wood Memorial). This doesn’t show he is proven, though he did show talent, it could have also been luck and I don’t let a single race persuade me. Mubtaahij on the other has won the UAE Derby at the longest Derby prep distance of 1 3/16 miles.

#4 International Star vs. Far Right - International Star

This horse isn’t getting as much credit as he deserves. He won all three FG Derby preps. It may have been against softer competition, but it is definitely not easy to win three graded stakes (one G3 and two G2s) in 3 months. Still, Far Right is a very tough horse who won two out of three times this year and his only second was to American Pharoah. Though out of these two, Star seems to be the stronger horse. I worry that Far Right’s 2nd place Arkansas Derby effort took too much out of him.

#5 American Pharoah vs. Stanford - American Pharoah

Much like the El Kabeir and Dortmund matchup, this one requires no explanation. American Pharoah has been dominating while Stanford is slowly creeping onto the Derby scene. I really do believe he should bypass the Derby and then make his mark this summer on the Saratoga scene.

#6 Tencendur vs. Bold Conquest - Tencendur

Well, Bold Conquest isn’t even running the Derby and Tencendur did come 2nd in the Wood Memorial.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Morning Line Odds

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I’ve decided to make Kentucky Derby brackets, similar to those used for the NCAA during March Madness.

I included the top 24 point earners. Every day, a new set of the brackets shall be completed with reasoning for each pick. The reasons for Day 1 are as proceeds:

#1: Dortmund vs. War Story - Dortmund

The obvious choice. Much the best out of these two. Dortmund has won the Santa Anita Derby and is 6 for 6 while War Story was third last out in the Louisiana Derby and has a record of 5:2-2-1

#2 El Kabeir vs. Bolo - El Kabeir

El Kabeir, winner of the Jerome and the Gotham was also winner of the Ky Jockey Club Stakes as a 2yo so he has experience over the Churchill track. He has more races under his belt (9 versus Bolo’s 5) and has a much more impressive record than Bolo (though admittedly,  Bolo finished 3rd behind Dortmund twice). El Kabeir’s record is 9:4-2-2 while Bolo’s is 5:2-0-2. Finally, their workout times per distance are fairly similar (the last three are just fractions of a second apart), though El Kabeir’s most recent work on April 25 was impressive, going 4f in :46.8 at Belmont 3/55.

#3 Metaboss vs. Frammento - Metaboss

Frammento has not finished better than 3rd this year and that was while earning an 89 BRIS speed figure in the Fountain of Youth. His sole win came in a MSW and his works are average. There is really no logical reason for him to be running in the Derby. Metaboss was an uncharacteristic 6th last time out in the Spiral G3. However, he has two wins this year, one coming in a January MSW and the other coming in the El Camino Real Derby. 

#4 Carpe Diem vs. Danzing Moon - Carpe Diem

This is the obvious choice. Carpe Diem has won his only two races this year, the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. He has won all 5 races he has entered including the Breeders Futurity G1, besides the BC Juvenile (which was won by Texas Red), in which he finished second. His speed figures this year include a 96 in the TB Derby and a 102 in the Blue Grass. He is definitely one of the top contenders and could possible be used in a tri or superfecta. Danzing Moon, on the other hand has a single win in all of his 5 starts which came in a MSW. Following this, he came fourth to Carpe Diem in the TB Derby and then 2nd to the same colt in the Blue Grass. He has already shown he is not much of a mach to Carpe Diem.

#5 Upstart vs. Frosted - Frosted

Frosted lost to Upstart twice this year in his three starts first, in the Holy Bull where he came second, and then again in the Fountain of Youth where he came fourth. But upon leaving Florida, stretching out from 1 1/16 miles (both races were run at this distance) to 1 1/8 miles, and a minor throat procedure, Frosted came back to win the Wood Memorial G1 at Aqueduct, NY’s biggest Derby prep, while earning a career high speed figure of 107. Upstart, on the other hand, most recently lost the Florida Derby to Materiality, a colt with only three starts under his belt. Still, don’t underrate him, he could potentially be dangerous and wind up a longshot winner as when the gates open, all bets are off in the Derby and anything can happen (think Mine That Bird and Giacomo, though I doubt Upstart will be at such long odds).

#6 Ocho Ocho Ocho vs. Mubtaahij - Mubtaahij

Once again, the obvious decision. Mubtaahij is the winner of the UAE Derby which is run at 1 3/16 miles. He has run farther than any of the other Derby contenders and should have no problem stretching out an extra half furlong. This year, Ocho Ocho Ocho finished 8th behind Dortmund in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, and then third in the Blue Grass behind Carpe Diem. Last year, he won the Delta Downs Jackpot by a nose, though his best wins (highest win margin) came at sprints. After running in the Derby (which he has very little chance of winning), I think a good spot for him would be the 7f Woody Stephens (won by Bayern last year) run on the undercard on Belmont Stakes day.

#7 International Star vs. Itsaknockout - International Star

Another no-brainer. International Star won all three Derby preps at the Fair Grounds circuit and currently has the most Derby points at 171, one point ahead of Dortmund. Itsaknockout finished 4th last out in the Florida Derby, and second behind Upstart one start earlier in the FoY (though Upstart was DQ’d to second). He earned a meek 82 speed figure for his FlaDerby effort and has not won this year.

#8 Far Right vs. Materiality - Far Right

I truly do not understand all the hype hovering over Materiality. Yes, he is 3 for 3 but the fields he has faced are nothing like the Derby. The toughest Derby contender he’s met thus far is Upstart, and Upstart himself isn’t shaping up to look like much of a Derby winner. This colt is far too inexperienced for the Derby what with its huge field and longer distance. Far Right on the other hand, is 2 for 3 this year, finishing no worse than second. The Southwest winner was only second behind American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby and considering Pharoah is the likely favorite as well as just being a beast, it is very excusable in this matchup.

#9 American Pharoah vs. Firing Line - American Pharoah

Does this one even need to be explained? Firing Line’s 14 1/4 length romp in the Sunland Derby was amazing, though he was facing weaker competition than what will be at the Derby. American Pharoah is a beast who hasn’t lost once this year. His only real competition in the Derby comes in the form of Dortmund (my Derby pick) who is just a freak, and Mubtaahij, the UAE Derby winner.

#10 Mr. Z vs. Stanford - Stanford

As big a fan I am of Mr. Z and as much as I do root for him every time he runs, Stanford is just the better horse. Mr. Z has a tendency to run third often. He doesn’t have a single win this year, and only has one win lifetime which came in his first start, a MSW. Still, he has run against and finished 2nd or 3rd behind top class horses including Dortmund, American Pharoah, and Carpe Diem. Stanford, on the other hand, has steadily been improving and moving up in class. He won his first start this year, an OC before finishing 2nd to Materiality in the Islamorada Handicap. He came back to finish 2nd to International Star by a mere 1/4 length in the Louisiana Derby, earning a 99 speed fig for his effort.

#11 Tencendur vs. Firespike - Tencendur

This matchup is fairly obvious as well. Tencendur finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial and 4th in the Gotham. Firespike finished 3rd in the Spiral and really has not made much of an impact on the Derby trail. He is #24 of 25 Derby contenders (points wise) and may not even have berth into the race.

#12 Keen Ice vs. Bold Conquest - Bold Conquest

In Keen Ice’s 3 starts this year, his best effort was 3rd in the Risen Star. His sole win came in a MSW. His highest speed fig is a 94 (Risen Star). Bold Conquest’s best effort this year was a third, too, though it came behind American Pharoah and Madefromlucky. He also had a third place finish in the Breeders Futurity. Still, neither of these horses should be running in the Derby.