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sierrabinondo · 5 years

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woodland creatures tour - day 8 (falls church)

finally got around to starting the final journal. life picks back up so quickly for me when i return from going anywhere, really, so it’s hard to stick to little projects like this. but i probably could have benefited from writing this sooner after the actual last day of tour haha. it’s funny how we only leave for a week or so but it feels like our lives shift so drastically during that time. it really does take time to snap back into reality and accept normalcy.

after a good night of bullshitting until super late (we tried to put on hot ones around 2:00 am but all passed out shortly after) we grabbed coffee and breakfast at coffeeology (i THINK that’s the name) in greensboro. we stopped at a shop literally across the street from the venue we played last year, new york pizza. seeing that place again reminded us of playing to literally our tourmates destination dimension and maybe like 3 other people in the room, versus the couple dozen we played to last night. the main band that played the gig that night literally sat outside the entire show with their friends and only came inside for when they had to play. it was disheartening, to say the least. this time, we didn’t play to a crowd that was there for us, but we played to so many more people who actually stayed inside to watch us.

i wish i could remember this drive, i didn’t have any work to do so i think this was the day i bought untitled goose game and i was playing it a little bit haha. we listened to some music and just enjoyed the trek to our last gig on this run. of course, we started to hit traffic as we approached falls church, which is in the DC area for anyone not familiar. however, we were still making okay time. we could make a detour to drop our bags at the hotel in vienna, get food, and then run our dual band cover of uneasy hearts with pulses. forgot to mention this in the jacksonville journal lmao, i approached kevin with this idea for the last show of tour super casually and we did end up deciding as a whole to go through with it!

the hotel in vienna was such a strange spot, but it was kind of cool? we stayed at the vienna wolf trap hotel hahaha. all of the decor was SO DATED but it was still pretty okay. the guy at the desk was nice, we somehow got on the topic that we were a band on tour rand he gave us late check-in for free! ended up not needing it. but it’s the thought that counts haha. we arrive to the venue and jaime’s girlfriend rebecca is there to greet us :’) poor girl drove their RV all the way down to virginia alone, and that thing drives slowly. but then that meant jaime could ride back up to jersey with her which was good.

it is insane how at home we feel at falls church. i guess everyone south of maryland is just way fucking cooler than the northeast lmao, but it’s like pulling up to play somewhere at home in jersey and running into old friends. i can’t get over that we have that in a state hundreds of miles from home. it was good to see familiar faces and be back at the vfw. our friends’ band to michigan, with love was also on the gig, and our newer friends in science penguin joined us on the show as well! it was an all-around homie fest. i rolled up to the venue with the remainder of the trulys i purchased the night before, and shoved the box in the fridge haha. i was ready to just chillll.

because we have played here a handful of times, it is also now tradition to walk across the parking lot and go get korean fried chicken at the restaurant next door. it fucking sucks, we always arrive just in time to eat before doors and i normally can’t eat jack shit because of fried/spicy food being horrible for my voice. i ordered bibimbap and then 12 wings to go, for after the show lmao. or a snack after we play!! but i ended up forgetting to FUCKING eat them AND they just sat out overnight in the van so they were toast. goddamnit. i think the restaurant is literally just called bbq fried chicken, the way they fry their chicken is just perfect. the sauces are all delicious and everything besides that on the menu is also tasty.

i wanted so badly to break my last set of tour curse. it’s definitely a self-imposed, silly, superstitious thing, but my last set of tour iS ALWAYS HOT GARBAGE. i always for sure mess up. and this was probably the best last set of tour i’ve had but still not my best performance all of tour haha. i got lost the bridge of murder mountain and couldn’t hear my bandmates for some reason? fucking embarrassing but!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i cannot stress enough how much fun it was. it truly was. fucking, we’re about to play pixelated and i’m trying to give my SHPIEL about not being a JERK musician and i hear the sounds of “smooth” by carlos santana featuring rob thomas faintly playing through my in-ears. i rip them off and i’m like, what the fuck is going on LMAO. surprise, the pulses. gang were behind it, and tyler, taylor and kevin come dancing up to the stage. i was DEAD. we never do last day of tour pranks so we were fuuuully unprepared hahaha. it was so funny. my meme now takes on a whole new meaning!!

most importantly this show felt like such a fun celebration of tour. pulses., as they did all tour, hyped us up during almost every song and went off for synapse fires. we are too fucking lucky to have them as friends. they really helped make every set and every show feel worth the hours of travel and sometimes stress. to look out and see their faces in the crowd and singing the words uplifted us each night. it’s unfair that we live so far apart. it’s like how they say your soulmate could be literally anywhere in the world but you won’t know until you go look??? it’s like that but with finding supportive friends. i’m not sure if we’ve stressed this enough but this tour gave us strength to keep going as musicians, due in part to their friendship. we always joked like how the fuck we’re supposed to just go on not playing shows together or seeing each other all the time but it really does suck lmao. i was in my feelings in both a good and bad way, soooo i immediately scurried off the stage to go grab a truly the second we were done HAHA

it’s always so sad to watch your friends play their last set of tour, too. well moreso bittersweet! but you know that it’ll be your last time seeing them play for a while. i enjoyed every single minute. i love watching them play hometown shows, too. halfway through we jumped on stage to do the uneasy hearts cover, completely unrehearsed, and i’d say we did a pretty damn good job. such a fun way to send off the woodland creatures tour. i had always wanted to do something like this, where two bands play on stage at once (holla me versus i nd the artwork of). the energy the whole song was so infectious, it was fun to see people in the crowd go off too. also, fucking KRIS KHUNACHAK shot this video with TWO ANGLES holding both his cameras at the same time. i still can’t get over that.

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i love that pulses. played you already know as their closer, it was the perfect way to wrap up their set and the best bookend to the setlist they chose. kevin would get on the mic every night and speak to the crowd, dude is just really good at being a performer and resonating with people. in jacksonville he sat down and everyone followed his lead haha. it was fun to dance one last time with everyone as we watched pulses. kill it before the tour came to an official end. we then gathered outside to take group pictures. it’s the part you don’t wanna get to, because it signals farewells in the near future, but we took some really great ones.

post-gig taco bell plans were foiled, but someone recommended the silver dollar diner nearby. diners outside of jersey are normally horrifying but i trusted the people we were with. we piled back in our vehicles and rolled 20 heads deep to the diner. it was actually a really sick diner with tons of vegan dishes and pretty tasty food. i got chicken noodle soup, red wine and an ice cream sundae because i am a freak of nature. we ate up like 3 tables and sat altogether, just bitching about having to return to real life the following monday. but also, trying to plan the next time we would see each other. already!! and!! talking about doing more shows together. we try to work with different people all the time but there are a select few bands we would tour with or gig with again and again and again and pulses. are one of them. after how much fun this run was it’s pretty hard to imagine not doing this again. it just... makes sense. so much sense. and it feels wrong to not do it again lmao.

goodbyes were bittersweet. we huddled in the parking lot by our van to say goodnight and see ya later, one by one. fuckin, tyler is moving to nashville very soon so we all probably won’t see him for a hot minute :’----------( thankfully everyone else really isn’t that far if we planned a weekend trip to meet halfway or if we wanted to make the trip out to each other, thank god!!! i don’t know what i would do if i couldn’t always have a part of this tour with me, somehow or some way.

afterword

was thinking of adding a lengthy epilogue but it’s essentially just me openly sobbing in the van the entire ride home hahaha. you’d think that every single time it would get easier to come home but it doesn’t. i know why touring impacts me as much as it does emotionally, but when the bittersweet acceptance of coming home pours over into tears like it does, i feel kinda silly. i’m sure that there are musicians who are constantly gigging that would love nothing more than to be home more, and i know that if i was in their shoes i would come to dread touring, too.

i really, truly wish i was in a place, or that my bandmates and i, were in a place to tour more often, but for now we have what we have. and that’s okay. i want to share something beautiful our friend charlene posted today that deeply moved me:

This is the moment. I’ve made it.

People always ask me “what are you gonna do when you’ve made it?” I need you to understand something; I’ve already made it. I am living out my dreams. It’s not easy and obviously I would only hope that’s I will continue to grow, to reach bigger goals, to push the limits. But I’ve already made it. This is the moment. I won’t let myself miss out on the beauty of life that’s right in front of me because I’m too worried about something that may or may not come tomorrow. This is the moment.

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Vegas Edge Jets; Ekman-Larsson; Klefbom; Forward Shot Rates – May 17

Vegas played its first-ever home Conference Final game and managed to skate away with a 4-2 win. They started off flying as Jonathan Marchessault broke in alone and deked to the backhand on Connor Hellebuyck just 35 seconds into the game. Mark Scheifele would square things early in the second period with a goal of his own but James Neal took advantage of a Hellebuyck stickhandling gaffe second later to make it 2-1. Alex Tuch would add a goal and that’s all the Golden Knights would need even with Scheifele adding his second.

Game 3 between Vegas and Winnipeg had just about everything. We had nice goals, nice (and some lucky) saves, a few big hits, and… tickling?

TICKLE TICKLE pic.twitter.com/hFJJPa5d5k

— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) May 17, 2018

That wasn’t all from Marc-Andre Fleury, though. With the Jets pressing hard in the third period, he robbed Scheifele twice with a pair of top-notch saves:

HOLY MOLY WHAT A GOALIE pic.twitter.com/UYHHF7GZT8

— NHL on NBC (@NHLonNBCSports) May 17, 2018

Something about Fleury making sliding saves in the playoffs…

Both teams traded chances in this one. It seemed like the Marchessault line was getting an odd-man rush every other shift while Mathieu Perreault blew it on a nearly-wide open net and Patrik Laine clanked iron just minutes apart in the second period. And, as mentioned, it was basically all Winnipeg in the third. Had the Hockey Gods been a little less fickle, this game could look wildly different.

I suppose that’s the best part of this series. Sure, each team is getting lucky in their own respects, but they’re creating the opportunities and conditions for that luck. They’re creating chances and getting to the net using their speed and skill. Something, something good to be lucky.

This should be a a wonderful series to watch as a neutral hockey fan.

A report from Craig Morgan at Arizona Sports indicates that the Arizona Coyotes and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are in discussions for a contract extension. Not that it’s a surprise they’re discussing it, but the fact that terms are reported would at least indicate to me that they’re getting close.

OEL turns 27 this summer and has one year left on his current contract.

There had been some rumblings over the last year that Arizona may look to move Ekman-Larsson but outside of a lopsided, blockbuster package, this avenue always made the most sense. He’s a number-1 defenceman currently in his mid-20s. As long as he doesn’t turn into Brent Seabrook they should be fine.

Assuming Arizona signs Jakob Chychrun next year as his ELC runs out, that gives the Coyotes a top-4 of Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, and Chychrun through the 2020-2021 season, along with Antti Raanta. With Clayton Keller looking like a gamebreaker, and a bevy of prospects to come, the future is indeed bright in the desert. Don’t discount them short-term, though. If their depth can fill out a bit this season, they’ll make noise in the West.

Those with OEL shares in cap leagues, start budgeting to add at least $2.5-million after the 2018-19 season. Whether he’s worth it for you depends on roster construction.

An interesting little tidbit:

"Is there potential for a Klefbom swap out to Buffalo, maybe along with that pick? I'm spitballing a lot of stuff here but my overriding sentiment is, I believe the Oilers will be aggressive in hunting some of the big names…" https://t.co/dNIFSwKpn2

— dellowhockey (@dellowhockey) May 16, 2018

That is in reference to Ryan RIshaug of TSN saying that it appears the Oilers may be looking for a major shake-up.

What they actually end up doing, well, we have another month or so to wait and see. They need depth, they need scoring, they need defencemen. One trade isn’t going to do it. On the other hand, leave it to Peter Chiarelli to trade Oscar Klefbom following a season where he played injured the entire year and had his performance suffer because of it. I want Chiarelli as a GM in my fantasy leagues.

A couple days ago in these Ramblings there was a discussion about league-wide shot rates, their increase over the last couple years, and how this affects fantasy leagues. As Cam pointed out in his Ramblings yesterday, power plays and penalty kills are a part of the rise in goal scoring. That’s a fascinating topic that should get a lot of coverage this summer. For all the fans bellowing “shooooot” with their team on the PP, the players were more efficient than they have been in decades with the man advantage. Maybe they know what they’re doing.

Either way, the discussion on goal scoring is going to be set aside from my perspective for a little bit. This will be a continuation of shot rates league-wide and as promised, we’re going to dive down to the player level. Today will cover forwards. As usual, data from Natural Stat Trick.

As mentioned in those Ramblings on Tuesday, shot rates at five-on-five at the team level have increased by a significant margin. Read those Ramblings for a little primer.

Here’s the thing: there hasn’t been a commensurate rise in average shot rate among forwards. In 2013-14, the average forward had an individual shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five of 12.352. This past season, that number was 12.416. That’s a rise of about one half of one percent. In 2014-15, when we had a five-year low of league-wide shot rates, the average individual shot attempt rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five among forwards was 12.007. As mentioned, this year’s average shot rate was 12.416. That’s a rise of about 3.29 percent.

Long story short, the rise in league-wide shot rates has led to more goals, but the rise in average shot rates among forwards has not been in lock-step with the league. In fact, the shot rates in 2017-18 are very similar to what they were in 2013-14.

League-wide conversion rates have gone up, though. In 2017-18, forwards scored on 5.382 percent of shot attempts. Back in 2013-14, that conversion rate was 5.229 percent. It might not seem like a huge difference, but keep in mind that we’re talking about tens of thousands of shot attempts. For example, on the 71 583 shot attempts forwards took in 2013-14, if we apply he 2017-18 conversion rate of 5.382 percent, it yields an extra 109.6 goals. That’s a lot of goals.

What does this mean for fantasy? Of course, goals and shots are devalued because they are more prevalent than they have been in years. Moreover, goaltending in fantasy is as important as ever. That’s a problem. Everyone knows how much volatility there is in goaltending. Pekka Rinne was average-to-bad for a half-decade and this year he’s a Vezina finalist. Carey Price was as dominant as we’ve seen from a goaltender this century for a four-year stretch and in 2017-18 he would have been a poor backup goalie. The examples go on and on but fantasy owners know the deal with goalies.

Depending on perspective, this is a problem or an opportunity in the fantasy game. For example, the top-5 goalies by ADP on ESPN (Holtby, Price, Murray, Bobrovsky, and Talbot) finished with the following season-end ranks on ESPN’S Player Rater among goalies only: 33rd, 74th, 42nd, 6th, and 43rd. No goalie with an ADP among the top-5 goalies actually finished as a top-5 goalie. If we expand to the top-10 by ADP, we add Jones, Dubnyk, Rinne, Rask, and Quick. Only Rask, Rinne, and Quick finished among the top-10 goalies. In other words, four goalies drafted in the top-10 by ADP on ESPN finished as top-10 goalies. They’re horrific investments.

It’s something to be covered deeper as the summer wears on but it’s probably time to treat goalies in fantasy hockey as if they were running backs in fantasy football: avoid drafting them early and stockpile them in the mid-to-late rounds. Just a thought.

That was a bit of a goalie tangent but whomst among us hasn’t gone off on a goalie tangent once in a while.

The last part to cover is shot volume among forwards.

The average number of shots on goal at five-on-five by a forward in 2013-14 was 79.26. This past season, it was 83.53. Given that we know shot attempts have gone up over the last four years, this is not a surprise. What is a surprise the distribution of those shots.

In 2017-18, there was an explosion of middle-of-the-road shot totals. Each season from 2013-14 through 2016-17 saw between 130-135 forwards post between 100 and 149 shots. Last year, the number of forwards jumped to 158. The jump in forwards posting 100-150 shots in 2017-18 compared to the seasons 2013-14 through 2016-17 was 16.14 percent. On the other hand, the number of forwards that posted 150 or more didn’t climb nearly as much. In 2017-18, there were 54 forwards to manage at least 150, representing an increase of 13.43 percent. As explained in yesterday’s Rambings, the middling totals are becoming more abundant. The elite totals are as well, just not at the same rate.

All this is only at five-on-five and power-play production is a huge factor in fantasy performance. It’s just to point out that we should be coveting the guys that can put up elite shot rates more than we have in recent seasons. The automatics like Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko are obvious but don’t forget guys like Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Skinner, or Brendan Gallagher. Power-play minutes have to be factored in before final determinations are made, but guys like that are important to finishing atop shot totals in your fantasy league.

Just as a small aside: this is what the distribution of forward shot totals for each of the last five seasons looks like. You’ll notice how the elite shot totals (over 220) of even two years ago don’t exist anymore but there is a higher density in the ~130-200 range. Also, the curve from 2017-18 shifted right from 2016-17, which shows the general increase in shots:

Let’s summarize the last couple Ramblings:

Shot rates at five-on-five across the league are increasing and forward shot rates are increasing with it.

Not only are shot rates increasing, but conversion rates are as well. A lot more studying needs to be done into why but this is bad news for goalies.

The increased shot rates mean more volume at all levels but we are seeing a larger increase in middling totals than we are elite totals.

This is but one small piece of the puzzle we’ll be putting together all summer trying to figure out how to best allocate draft picks come September and which players we should value. As promised, tomorrow we will focus on defencemen and how their shot and goal rates are changing.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-vegas-edge-jets-ekman-larsson-klefbom-forward-shot-rates-may-17/

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