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nflweeklyuk · 3 years

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Week 4 NFL Predictions

Week 3 saw me go 11-5 for the second week in a row, a 69% clip. 70% in predictions is pretty high standard I’ve found over the years and what I look to achieve for a good season. After a bad Week 1 (50%) I’m sitting at W30-L18 on the year, or 63%. That needs to come up, and Week 4 will hopefully do that! Game picks below. Enjoy!

Jaguars 17 Bengals 23

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Pick confidence: 80%

Given the Jaguars struggles so far this season the Bengals come into this one as heavy favourites. I do think they walk away with the W at the end of the day but I have a feeling it may be closer than records and performances suggest. The Bengals are a top 8 team against the run and are tied for 4th in sacks on the year to date with 10. This suggests that they are in a good spot to slow the Jags running game and pressure the rookie passer. This is exactly the opposite of what a rookie passer needs, with Trevor Lawrence having thrown 2+ picks in first three games of the year the Jags really need to lean on the run game and take the pressure off his shoulders. The stats suggest that may be tricky. The Jags run D has been average in yds allowed but has allowed the 3rd most TDs with 5. On the flip side they have allowed a lot of passing yds and not so many TDs through the air. All that points to Burrow being able to move the ball fairly freely and the Bengals needing to run well in the red zone. Joe Mixon should be up to the task and I would look for him to have a big night here. When you watch the Bengals though I see steady but not spectacular. Therefore I think this is not a hugely high scoring game, I don’t think the Jags will do enough to put the Bengals offense on notice. Look for a fair few long drives that run the clock in a comfortable but not spectacular Bengals win. 7.5 is a fair bit to spot the Bengals so I am not confident about the spread here, but they should run out winners.

Titans 24 Jets 20

Spread: Titans -6.5

Pick confidence: 75%

The Titans will be missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones in this one so there is slight concern over who is going to pick up the slack on offense. Of course the game plan becomes even more reliant on Derrick Henry, however the Titans may find it tough sledding in the early going as the Jets allow one of the lower yards per attempt on the ground, 3.8 ypc, in the league. I do expect them to stay on the run game and for this to eventually take it’s toll on a fairly good Jets unit. The game script should help the Titans here in that it is unlikely the Jets will get out to a lead and force Tennessee off their game plan. The Jets offense has been the most difficult to watch (even you Chicago) through the early season, they should find a bit more success against the Titans than they have had against 3 really good defensive units to start the year. I just do not thing they have the horses this year, we could be looking at the first 0-17 team if this offense does not start protecting Zach Wilson and giving him some easier throws. The losses on offense for the Titans limit their effectiveness on play action but I think they run, literally, away with this one in the second half. Perhaps look for someone like Jeremy McNichols to see an increased workload as a pass catching option out of the backfield, sleeper daily fantasy option potentially. On the road and banged up the spread here feels a little high, although it has come down over the course of the week.

Chiefs 35 Eagles 27

Spread: Chiefs -7.0

Pick confidence: 85%

I’ve got this being a high scoring one. Watching Dallas carve up the Eagles with ease gives me no reason to believe Patrick Mahomes won’t do the same if not more. I think this one looks like a blow out before a late game Eagles surge that really just window dresses the result. Seeing Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin get involved with ease against these Eagles must have Travis Kelce chomping at the bit to get out there. I think Mahomes comes out with something to prove (not necessary, but…) and puts on a show. The Chiefs D is still there to be had and the Eagles have proved they can generate offense, even if it is often playing from behind. I have the Chiefs winning their division, and I’m still confident in that, even with the competition in the West, this defense will turn a corner at some point, it could be in the first half here against the Eagles. I would still play my Eagles in fantasy as there should be plenty of garbage time points to go around! The Chiefs defense to date however should make anyone nervous about a 7 point spread.

Panthers 23 Cowboys 26

Spread: Cowboys -4.0

Pick confidence: 60%

A battle of two teams playing well. The Panthers lead the league in both passing and rushing yards allowed this season. At 2.6 yards per carry (ypc) allowed on the ground the Panthers run D vs the Dallas running backs looks to be strength on strength. On the flip side the Cowboys have not allowed many rushing yards but those yards have come at a 4.7 ypc clip. Chuba Hubbard is not Christian McCaffrey, this game may hinge on whether the rookie can carry the load in what should be a fairly low scoring affair. The Panthers have not conceded more than 14 points this season, but they have played the Jets, Saints and Texans. The Cowboys present an all around different proposition with an offense that can beat you in any way and a defense that, whilst giving up yards and points has also been opportunistic and forced 7 turnovers through 3 games, including a league leading 6 INTs. At this point I think I trust the team with better talent on offense in a game that should stay close throughout. The Panthers have yet to prove they can take on top notch opposition. This is the game to prove that, my guess is they prove they will be a tough out for any opponent, but not quite a team ready to make a run in the playoffs. Dallas could certainly make some noise come January.

Lions 17 Bears 20

Spread: Bears -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

Tough one to call. The Bears defense figures to be the best unit in this game and so the Lions do not project to score many points here. However, did you see the Bears offense last week? Ugly stuff. You have to figure it is not that bad again with another week to tailor more to Justin Fields skillset. The Lions D may provide the salve the Bears need to get the ball moving on offense, although the best way to attack them is through the air where they have conceded the 5th most scores this year. The Bears figure to try and run the ball early and often, the Lions run defense is better than the pass defense but the game script here should allow Matt Nagy and co to keep running the ball and wear the Lions down. The game script looking to be a low scoring, plenty of punts affair. I am banking on the Bears defense providing a couple of short fields to … Fields, perhaps even throw in a defensive score. The Lions have competed for halves of games so far this year. They will need to compete for the full game here to get a win. I don’t have conviction in picking either of these teams given their showings so far this year but I’ll back the better defense in this one. I hate 2.5 spreads. Not much confidence in taking it here but if you think the Bears win then anything between 0 and 2.5 gives you a shot. Look for Montgomery to perhaps have a decent day here, the opportunity should be there and quick throws to the backs may be on the cards for the rookie QB. We saw what Aaron Jones did against these Lions.

Washington 23 Falcons 19

Spread: Washington -2.0

Pick confidence: 55%

A slew of games that could go either way this week, this being one of them. Who do you trust here? The correct answer is no one. I correctly picked the Falcons to win last week, something almost unheard of. I just can’t pick them to win again, even though something is telling me to do so. I see Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley and think there is no way this team struggles to move the ball, then every week they do. This is now becoming a worrying problem rather than a scheme adjustment. If they couldn’t get it going against the Giants then in theory the Washington defense should be the team they bounce back against. Although I have more faith in the Washington D bouncing back right now than I do the Falcons offense. I think we see the FT front get after Matt Ryan in this one, creating a turnover or two. The FT ground game has looked good the last couple of weeks and the Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic one-two punch is something I’m feeling, especially agains this Falcons unit. Taylor Heinicke has played well but been let down by his defense. If they see improvement on that side of the ball then I think Washington puts up enough to take the W this week. I’m looking at Gibson as a daily fantasy play here. Again though this looks to be a close, low scoring affair so could go either way – especially if this is the week the Falcons make me look silly again and break out on offense.

Texans 17 Bills 41

Spread: Bills -17.0

Pick confidence: 95%

Not often I predict 40+ points but the Bills clicked in Week 3, fully clicked. The D showed up against the Dolphins the week before but watching that game the offense was still not in sync fully. It was last week. That should scare the Texans who are coming in with a rookie QB who was never supposed to start and a defense that is getting worse as the weeks go by. If Davis Mills can't limit the 3 and outs the this game will get ugly. The Bills should get the opportunity to try and get the ground game going so Singletary and Moss look like good plays in fantasy, Moss could be a good value daily play. Not sure there is much else to say here other than the spread here is ridiculously high (3 scores!) and I'm still taking it! You know Josh Allen is thinking MVP, because it is all everyone has been talking about all offseason.

Browns 27 Vikings 24

Spread: Browns -1.0

Pick confidence: 55%

The Browns enter Week 4 second in the league in rushing and have accounted for 8 scores on the ground, 3 more than anyone else in the league. Th Vikings have been average against the run but have been one of the leagues worst units against the pass, despite racking up an impressive 10 sacks so far. I haven’t seen anything to suggest the Browns won’t have their way with plan A, run the ball. This is a different attack to those encountered by Minnesota to date. The Browns have successfully shut down opposing air attacks so they should be able to slow the Vikings and Kirk Cousins who is averaging 306 yards per game through the air. The Vikings own a top 10 run game but have only accounted for a single score on the ground. The Browns D can also boast a spot in the top 5 in yards allowed on the ground so the Vikings are going to find running the ball tough also. All of the above would suggest that the Browns D should be in a position to slow down the Vikings and capitalise off play action to put points on the board. In reality this feels like a close matchup, the eyeball test of the Browns doesn’t quite match the stats. I think this one could easily go either way but I will go with the Browns. A 1 point spread is often worth taking if you think the team will run out a winner in the game give the scoring systems in the NFL.

Giants 20 Saints 27

Spread: Saints -7.0

Pick confidence: 70%

Did we see the real Saints last week, the team that was beating up on the Patriots? Dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against a Patriots team is something that should propel you to plenty of wins, especially against winless teams. I'm still nervous about the Saints given the up and down nature of their performances, this week projects to have an additional factor in the raucous home crowd that needs a footballing reprieve. I think the Saints run out winners here but it's not an easy win. The Giants run game is showing life and Daniel Jones has nipped the crushing turnovers in the bud to some extent, the loss of two of their top receivers in Shephard and Slayton will mean someone will need to step up, Kadarius Toney? The defense has played well before crumbling late in the last two weeks against teams struggling offensively. I thinknwe see the same Saints we saw last weekend, a group that will get traction for Kamara in the ground game and a defensive line that will disrupt the Giant passing game. Ultimately I think the Saints have the more complete roster and the momentum to win this one. I wouldn't have much confidence in the spread here if the Giants were healthy on offense but it may be worth taking now.

Dolphins 24 Colts 17

Spread: Dolphins -2.0

Pick confidence: 51%

Another tough pick this week. The strength of this Dolphins team is the corners. The weakness for this Indy team is the weapons on the outside. I like Xavien Howard and Byron Jones vs Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Can the Colts do enough damage with tight ends over the middle? Perhaps, but it figures to be the ground game that needs to do the work against the Phins. Heading in to Week 4 only 2 teams have bee run on more than the Dolphins, they ypc allowed is average but Miami is sitting at 1-2 so a run heavy game plan seems to be a decent approach. Jonathan Taylor and Nyeim Hines figure to get plenty of opportunity, especially if the corner lock down the Indy passing attack. The Jacoby Brisset revenge game is probably quite rightly not getting much air time but he is a likeable guy and the type of person who will elevate his game for this type of matchup. He seemed to find some rhythm with Mike Gesicki in the second half against the Raiders and the TE will certainly be needed to keep the chains moving for Miami. Waddle is seemingly hauling in lots of balls but putting up very meagre yardage. It’s only a matter of time until the speedster breaks one, I’m feeling that in this game. The Colts have not given up huge yardage through the air, most of the damage has come from the opposition ground game in that regard, not an area Miami has been strong in, but they have given up a joint league leading 9 scores through the air, suggesting that when opposing teams get into the red zone, success through the air is on the cards. This feels like one of those Durham Smythe TD grab kind of games. That is not a daily fantasy suggestion though, just to be clear. I figure a low scoring affair with Miami just edging it in the 4th with a good performance from Jacoby Brisset. Wentz struggles against tight coverage and has to lean on his TE and RBs to get this offense moving. I’m not in love with the spread but Dolphins win then I take the 2.0.

Cardinals 20 Rams 28

Spread: Rams -4.0

Pick confidence: 70%

I was high on the Rams at the start of the season, picking them to win the NFC West. I did wonder how they would fare against the top teams in the league, enter the Bucs. The Rams outplayed the reigning champs throughout and have cemented themselves as a powerhouse in the league. The main reason I was so high on the Rams was the addition of Stafford. Playing on a bad Lions team he always elevated those around him, now he has the supporting cast on offense and a great defense to support him. Its going to take a very good all-round team to challenge ge the Rams. The Cardinals may be a team that could do just that, however I don't think their defense is playing well enough right now to limit the Rams offense. After exploding in Week 1 this Cardinals team have been a missed FG away from 36 points and an L to the Vikings, and in a 9 point hole with 3 minutes to play in the 3rd against the lowly Jags. The defense gave up 159 on the ground to the Jags. If the Rams have success on the ground it will only make Stafford more dangerous, I don't see the Cards holding this offense down. Murray will likely be playing from behind and we have seen him force throws and turn the ball over, this Rams team will feast on that. I think the Rams expose the Cards limitations in this one. I feel pretty confident about the Rams covering the spread on this one.

Seahawks 26 49ers 27

Spread: 49ers -2.5

Pick confidence: 55%

Another toss up game in a week with toss up type matchups. No team has been run on more than the Seahawks this year, giving up 4.5 ypc the 49ers run game should get going enough to open up play action for Garropolo. The connection with Deebo Samuel looks to be heating up, getting Aiyuk involved more has helped this offenses production. The Seahawks D ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass and bottom 3 against the run, they are also not turning the opposition over. This should mean the 49ers put points on the board consistently, whilst sustaining drives and limiting Seahawks possessions. The Seahawks can be a quick strike offense with D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Lockett, but they can also be very inconsistent. Wilson has been sacked 8 times this year and so the 49ers front should be able to get after him and disrupt the passing game, the caveat there is that Wilson is pretty used to this and often makes his best plays while improvising. I love Russell Wilson, he is one of my favourite players in the league but he can only do so much and teams that give up so much on defense don’t tend to win games against top opposition. Therefore I’m picking the 9ers here, it should be close and could go either way but I’ll give the edge to the side that is more likely to make plays on defense here.

Steelers 21 Packers 28

Spread: -6.0

Pick confidence: 80%

The Steelers just look horrid on offense right now. Their big plays, infrequent as they have been, were tending to be to Chase Claypool, he is out for this one and it leave me wondering where the offense will come from. Najee Harris had an insane amount of catches and touches last week but it is not translating to points. Teams are not afraid of Roethlisberger’s deep ball this year, rightly so as the completion percentage is low. Have we seen the best he has to offer? Unfortunately that may be the case. The Packers are a top 10 defense against the pass, outside of being on the end of 9 scores through the air, so moving the ball through the air projects to be difficult again for the Steelers. If the Steeler’s D can keep this game close through the first half and try to establish the run game, even if it is screens and short passes then this could be closer than most predict. I just have a feeling there are a couple of turnovers coming from Big Ben, looking at you Jaire Alexander. How well the Packers fair on offense may depend on the health of T.J. Watt. If he can go then this defense may be able to pressure Aaron Rodgers and limit the offensive production. In reality my prediction for this game is that Rodgers and co move the ball well enough and benefit from a couple of turnovers, helping them to a comfortable-ish win.

Broncos 21 Ravens 26

Spread: Ravens -1.0

Pick confidence: 75%

There is a lot of love for the Broncos coming into this one, I am not quite buying it just yet. The opposition has not been great this year in the 3-0 start. The Ravens represent a big step up in talent. Jackson looks like he is going to be good to go and he just projects as a bigger difference maker than Teddy Bridgewater. The Broncos have benefitted from being able to play fairly conservatively on offense given the game scripts in the first three weeks. I expect the Ravens to come out and establish the running game early in this one. That would look difficult against the number 2 ranked run D, however I’m not convinced given the opposition faced to date. The Ravens run game is a different beast altogether. This pick is more a gut feel one than anything as the broncos have not faced the litmus test this year, whereas the Ravens have had tough fixtures and pulled through in adversity a couple of time already. There is offense to be had against the Ravens D but I want to see the Broncos let loose and beat a team on offense before I pick them over the top tier teams. I think the spread is a steal here.

Buccaneers 30 Patriots 17

Spread: Buccaneers -6.5

Pick confidence: 85%

An understandable amount of hype about this game given the history. It just doesn’t feel like a close game in my mind. The Buccaneers just have the better team, there is a huge difference in the skill position players here on offense. The Patriots defense looks to be better than the Bucs but I would trust Tom Brady to pick apart the Patriots over Mac Jones on the Bucs. Yes, if anyone could scheme up something to slow Tom Brady it would be Bill Belichick, but you also need the talent to see that through. I’m not sure that this Patriots roster is capable of competing with the reigning champs. I think there is plenty of overthinking being done in reference to this game. Bucs run out easy winners, take the spread.

Raiders 33 Chargers 30

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Pick confidence: 55%

Chalk up another toss up game. Two quarterbacks who are playing well, going against two defenses that are susceptible to racking up points against. Both offenses rank in the top 5 in passing, the Raiders taking the top spot. This game might come down to who I trust most to disrupt the other teams passing game, the Raiders look to have the edge there as they have shown much more in terms of pressuring the passer so far this year. Whatever happens play all your Raiders and Chargers in fantasy! The best shot the Chargers have here is to shut down Darren Waller, we have seen Derwin James do just that to the likes of Travis Kelce in previous years, but not this year however. This game could go either way, Herbert has been money on third down, and will need to be again. At present though I just feel like the momentum is with the Raiders. They know they will need to win this one to keep the Chiefs in the rear-view in this division.

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