#ats: 5.11 | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

specialagentfluffstein · 6 years

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All the asks!

Okie Doke. Except 84. I answered that yesterday.

1. Who was the last person you held hands with? My ex. 2. Are you outgoing or shy? Outgoing as hell. I’ll talk to anyone. 3. Who are you looking forward to seeing? My new potential beau. 4. Are you easy to get along with? I think so. 5. If you were drunk would the person you like take care of you? I think so. 6. What kind of people are you attracted to? People with presence. A nice face doesn’t hurt either. 7. Do you think you’ll be in a relationship two months from now? Maybe. We’ll have to see how things go tomorrow. 8. Who from the opposite gender is on your mind? The same dude who always is. 9. Does talking about sex make you uncomfortable? Nope. The last officer I rode with tried to test this and failed. 10. Who was the last person you had a deep conversation with? My sister, probably. 11. What does the most recent text that you sent say? “okay don’t get into anything too life threatening” 12. What are your 5 favorite songs right now? 1. “I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do” - Abba; 2. “My My My!” - Troye Sivan; 3. “Mystery of Love” - Sufjan Stevens; 4. “Edge of Town” - Middle Kids; 5. “Paris Latino” - Bandolero. 13. Do you like it when people play with your hair? Unless you are a hair stylist, not really. 14. Do you believe in luck and miracles? Luck yes, miracles maybe. 15. What good thing happened this summer? This past summer? I got to play with the SWAT team! I went to the Lake with my bestie! The solar eclipse was a thing! 16. Would you kiss the last person you kissed again? Negative. 17. Do you think there is life on other planets? Affirm. 18. Do you still talk to your first crush? Nope. I wonder what happened to that kid. I wonder if he still wears Hawaiian shirts every day. 19. Do you like bubble baths? Yes. 20. Do you like your neighbors? Most of them. 21. What are you bad habits? I tend to smack my gum. 22. Where would you like to travel? I’d like to visit every Disney park. I’d also like to visit Norway. 23. Do you have trust issues? Affirm. 24. Favorite part of your daily routine? Makeup! or Coffee. 25. What part of your body are you most uncomfortable with? My tummy. 26. What do you do when you wake up? check the time. 27. Do you wish your skin was lighter or darker? Negative. I’m good being pale. 28. Who are you most comfortable around? My bestie. 29. Have any of your ex’s told you they regret breaking up? Not to my face. 30. Do you ever want to get married? Maybe? IDK. 31. If your hair long enough for a pony tail? It is! 32. Which celebrities would you have a threesome with? Tom Hardy and Armie Hammer. 33. Spell your name with your chin. flu8ff6y 34. Do you play sports? What sports? Negative. 35. Would you rather live without TV or music? I’ll just die. Thanks anyways. 36. Have you ever liked someone and never told them? Affirm. 37. What do you say during awkward silences? Random “fun facts” 38. Describe your dream girl/guy? 6′3″, dark hair, blue eyes, spent some time in the military, not a cop. 39. What are your favorite stores to shop in? I love Macy’s and T.J. Maxx. 40. What do you want to do after high school? Already did it. 41. Do you believe everyone deserves a second chance? Negative. 42. If your being extremely quiet what does it mean? That I’m pissed. 43. Do you smile at strangers? All the time. 44. Trip to outer space or bottom of the ocean? Outer Space. 45. What makes you get out of bed in the morning? The need for coffee. 46. What are you paranoid about? Owing people. 47. Have you ever been high? Negative. 48. Have you ever been drunk? Affirm. 49. Have you done anything recently that you hope nobody finds out about? Affirm. 50. What was the colour of the last hoodie you wore? Black. 51. Ever wished you were someone else? Affirm. 52. One thing you wish you could change about yourself? My metabolism. 53. Favourite makeup brand? Too Faced 54. Favourite store? Safeway. 55. Favourite blog? Can I say my own, or is that too self-centered? I’m digging @symphony-in-silver they post Chris Isaak gifs and I am here for it. 56. Favourite colour? Tiffany blue. 57. Favourite food? Sushi or pizza. 58. Last thing you ate? A smoothie I made for lunch. 59. First thing you ate this morning? I had a cup of coffee… 60. Ever won a competition? For what? Yes! I won four Golds and Bronze medal for SkillsUSA in high school for Broadcast News Production (gold), Prepared Speech (gold, two years in a row), Crime Scene Investigation (bronze), and CPR/First Aid (gold). I was the first female in Nevada to win two gold medals in the same year. I also won a short fiction award senior year of college. 61. Been suspended/expelled? For what? Negative. 62. Been arrested? For what? Negative. 63. Ever been in love? Affirm. 64. Tell us the story of your first kiss? I got cornered like a wounded animal and it was awful. 65. Are you hungry right now? Negative. 66. Do you like your tumblr friends more than your real friends? Negative. I like you all about the same. 67. Facebook or Twitter? Twitter. 68. Twitter or Tumblr? Tumblr. 69. Are you watching tv right now? Negative. 70. Names of your bestfriends? I call my bestie “favored person” quite a bit. 71. Craving something? What? Yes. Chinese food. 72. What colour are your towels? Yellow and Blue. 72. How many pillows do you sleep with? Five. 73. Do you sleep with stuffed animals? Sometimes. 74. How many stuffed animals do you think you have? Not as many as I did when I was six. 75. Favourite animal? Dogs. 76. What colour is your underwear? Black. 77. Chocolate or Vanilla? If it’s ice cream, vanilla. If it’s cake, chocolate. 78. Favourite ice cream flavour? Chubby Hubby. 79. What colour shirt are you wearing? Plum. 80. What colour pants? Light rinse denim color. 81. Favourite tv show? Adam -12 82. Favourite movie? L.A. Confidential (fuck you, Kevin Spacey) 83. Mean Girls or Mean Girls 2? Mean Girls. 84. Mean Girls or 21 Jump Street? Same as last night. 85. Favourite character from Mean Girls? Karen. 86. Favourite character from Finding Nemo? Pearl. 87. First person you talked to today? My mom. 88. Last person you talked to today? My ex. 89. Name a person you hate? My advisor. 90. Name a person you love? Officer Male Model (A nickname given to him by a toothless motel clerk). 91. Is there anyone you want to punch in the face right now? Affirm. 92. In a fight with someone? Negative. 93. How many sweatpants do you have? Like two, maybe? IDK. 94. How many sweaters/hoodies do you have? Oh my god soooo many. 95. Last movie you watched? Boondock Saints (It was St. Patrick’s). 96. Favourite actress? Gal Gadot. 97. Favourite actor? Colin Farrell 98. Do you tan a lot? I don’t tan so much as fry. 99. Have any pets? No. :( 100. How are you feeling? Pretty okay. 101. Do you type fast? If I’m not thinking about it. 102. Do you regret anything from your past? Affirm. 103. Can you spell well? Affirm. 104. Do you miss anyone from your past? Affirm. 105. Ever been to a bonfire party? Negative. 106. Ever broken someone’s heart? Affirm. 107. Have you ever been on a horse? Unfortunately. 108. What should you be doing? Putting my laundry in the dryer. 109. Is something irritating you right now? My eczema flared up again, so yeah, that’s irritating. 110. Have you ever liked someone so much it hurt? Affirm. 111. Do you have trust issues? Didn’t I already answer this? 112. Who was the last person you cried in front of? My mom, probably. 113. What was your childhood nickname? Fona. 114. Have you ever been out of your province/state? Affirm. 115. Do you play the Wii? Negative. 116. Are you listening to music right now? Affirm - The The’s “Beyond Love” 117. Do you like chicken noodle soup? I’m largely indifferent. 118. Do you like Chinese food? I don’t like chinese food. I love chinese food. 119. Favourite book? John Steinbeck’s East of Eden or S.E. Hinton’s The Outsiders. 120. Are you afraid of the dark? Negative. 121. Are you mean? Yeah, kind of. 122. Is cheating ever okay? On people or in cards? People no, cards maybe. 123. Can you keep white shoes clean? Negative. 124. Do you believe in love at first sight? Affirm. I saw at least three dogs today and I fell in love with every single one. 125. Do you believe in true love? Maybe? It seems like a ploy to sell engagement rings to me. 126. Are you currently bored? I’m almost always bored. 127. What makes you happy? Television, records, things that go ~squish squish~ or at least look like they embody the ideals of things that go ~squish squish~ 128. Would you change your name? Affirm. I’m working on getting my last name changed to distance myself from a deadbeat male parent. 129. What your zodiac sign? Virgo! 130. Do you like subway? No. Port of Subs or Jimmy Johns. No subway. 131. Your bestfriend of the opposite sex likes you, what do you do? Say “too late asshole. That ship sailed, sank, and is now home to a colony of octopi” 132. Who’s the last person you had a deep conversation with? I definitely already answered this one. 133. Favourite lyrics right now? “Give your love freely to whoever that you please, don’t let nobody tell you ‘bout who you oughta be.” - Josh Ritter “Getting Ready to Get Down. 134. Can you count to one million? Probably not. 135. Dumbest lie you ever told? “my mom won’t let me give my number out” I was seventeen. 136. Do you sleep with your doors open or closed? Closed. 137. How tall are you? 5′4″ in my 5.11 boots. 138. Curly or Straight hair? Curly. 139. Brunette or Blonde? Can I go with option C - red. 140. Summer or Winter? Summer! 141. Night or Day? Day! Unless it’s a ride along and then Night. Nothing fun happens on day shift. 142. Favourite month? May. 143. Are you a vegetarian? Negative. 144. Dark, milk or white chocolate? Milk. 145. Tea or Coffee? Coffee. 146. Was today a good day? So far it’s been whatever. 147. Mars or Snickers? Snickers. 148. What’s your favourite quote? “When you’re curious, you find lots of interesting things to do.” - Walt Disney 149. Do you believe in ghosts? Affirm. My grandma’s house is absolutely haunted. 150. Get the closest book next to you, open it to page 42, what’s the first line on that page? “Out of Elivagar sprayed poison-drops” (The book is the Oxford World Classic translation of the Poetic Edda.)

Thanks for asking!

#fluffy answers

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helensclimbingandcakes · 5 years

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A catch up blog: wrote this 2 years ago for Misty Mountain

Surviving when it all comes crashing down.

Last year (2016) I was working my second season on the Yosemite Search and Rescue team living to climb in the high country utopia, Tuolumne Meadows.

My job was to help people and I was living the way humans are supposed to live - in a community without screens where evening entertainment is around a camp fire sharing good food and stories. I was healthy and happy and climbed hard, notably; Positivity a 5.13 naturally protected pitch of technical crack and crimpers.

High on altitude induced fitness I ran up the mountains effortlessly. At the end of the season I was heading back to Colorado to start my dream job and enter into the next chapter of my life. But first, as would be the natural response of any die-hard climber about to enter into a full time career, I went on a massive climbing bender, climbing 59 pitches in less than a week. I drove out of Yosemite Valley, sore and scratched, sad to be moving on, but excited for the future. Then my life, along with American politics came crashing down around me.

The climbing bender started with a lap up Astroman with a fantastic partner Roby, who was keen to do the Rostroman after a day of rest. The Rostroman consists of climbing two classic Yosemite free climbs, The Rostrum (8 pitches) and Astroman (11 pitches) of mostly 5.11 climbing in one day. It’s a basic Yosemite benchmark for free climbing link-ups. It had been a goal of mine for a couple of seasons, so I was excited to get an opportunity for the tick. It rained that day, and the rock was slick, friction at an all time low. I fell once out of the Harding slot, which was frustrating because I had freed it last season, and just one day earlier. We ran the decent, and while I was bounding down the steep rock gully I slammed my knee full speed into an unforgiving rock. Gritting my teeth I limped back to the car downed some Ibuprofen, ate a few bars I scrounged from my glove box (after discovering I had forgotten my carefully prepared lunch), and hobbled down to the start of the Rostrum. Despite the knee and rain and the dark on the last few pitches we topped out around 9pm. We finished both the routes in 14 hours.

Two days later I was climbing again with another awesome partner, Lauren. We were on the Nose in a Day (NIAD) and I was feeling the burn, climbing the free pitches on the first half of the famous route I felt tired and slow. We topped out on El Cap at about 18 hours several hours less than the first time I had climbed it in a day. Despite being sore and tired I felt amazing. Lauren and I had only just met a few days earlier and never climbed together before. While there was a lot we could improve on through the 31 pitches the whole day was super fun and we just kept moving and encouraging and supporting each other. I can’t wait to climb with Lauren again.

Quick side note; I used Misty’s Cadillac big wall harness for these goals. At the risk of sounding like an over inflated advert; it is truly the best harness for the job. There are two rows of gear loops that help keep everything organized.

The Cadillac is a little heavier as far as harnesses go, but it has this wide support waist that provides tones of comfort in a hanging belay or when a heavier climber takes a whip, and when the gear is heavy and waiting the harness on your hips. Also it’s the only big wall harness I have found that fits my small waist. When short fixing and running the pitches out I place a double rack over 3-4 pitches (the real speed climbers do it over 10 pitches, no way am I that bold!). It can be hours between meeting up with your climbing partner face to face, so all gear for those hours, water bottles, clothing, shoes, etc also has to be clipped onto the harness, none of this switching the pack every pitch. Lauren and I split the Nose into two, I did the first pitches and we swung leads at Eagle Ledge after the King Swing.

Then things got really hard. I failed a selection test after 9 weeks of fire academy, a job I had worked hard for three years trying to get. I can’t say right now about the things I experienced during my time in the academy because the reasons why I was failed are still being looked into. At times I was not treated fairly. Prior to being employed I went through a lengthy application and interview process, I was tested physically, medically, academically, took drug tests, psychological evaluations, had an integrity interview, and polygraph (lie detector) test. I passed them all by being honest and genuine. The fire department wanted people who held integrity in the highest regard; they wanted people whose prime motivation was to help people at all costs. They wanted people who spoke and acted like moral and just members of the community. Then once they hired us the put us into a highly abusive training environment where mistakes (even when learning something for the very first time) were not tolerated.

During my time in the academy I also experienced some of the worst luck imaginable. A young woman stole my mail and started writing herself checks faking my signature and withdrawing all the money I had in my account. My car got crashed into and ended up being taken to the wreckers. I suffered a terrible illness during one of my external testing weeks; I was taking Zofran by day and throwing up by night. As I said before I can’t go into specifics, but after this experience I was crushed. The results of the USA election compounded the situation. For a recent immigrant to the USA the brute that a small percentage of Americans voted for is a horrifying, terrifying future. I went home to New Zealand.

In tough times I climb. I match myself, or sometimes bash myself against the rock. I suffer and strive, and pull down and fly. I feel the burn, I feel the warm tingling sensation of trying as hard as I can, and I top out and scream into the wind, “I will SURVIVE!” and I heal.

Usually unemployment for me and fellow climbers is a joyous time. I can live off next-to-nothing, and really just want to be climbing rather than working anyway. But I was injured. I obtained a shoulder injury while on the job at fire academy. I have damage to my labrum and possibly need surgery. I can’t climb. Actually I can’t even lift the 2 pound container of laundry detergent off the high shelf to put into the washer. I got informed that my injury will not be covered by the employer where the injury occurred. I will have to cover all of the medical expenses through my own insurance, which somehow means a minimum of several thousand out of pocket expenditure as well as insurance paying the rest of the inflated medical costs that are simply baffling to your average New Zealander.

People kept saying to me, just be positive. Things could be worse. I do understand this, I do still have my health (more or less), I have a loving husband, family all over the world who are very supportive, and the climbing community. I am not out on the streets, I do have my limbs still intact, and I will recover from this injury. I can even go home to New Zealand if and when things get really crazy here in the USA. But the most helpful thing that anyone has said to me through this was “I don’t know what to say, it just sucks Helen”. Yes it can always be worse, I understand that. But right now I feel totally worthless, I lost my job through unfair circumstances, I am injured, I have been robbed of all my money and my car got totaled. My self confidence is at an all time low. Sometimes the acknowledgement of that can be truly healing.

So the climbing community opened their arms to me, and took me in. I am very lucky that my family and the climbing community are one and the same. I went back to New Zealand and traveled with my brother, always the rock in my life, and who I first climbed El Cap with. We went mountaineering, spear fishing, kayaking and snorkeling.

I am back coaching at the Spot Climbing Gym in Boulder. The young athletes I coach there force me to look forward and not dwell on the things that could have been. It felt like I had left to look for a new family, failed and returned the ever faithful dedicated and loyal climbing community. No matter where I am in the world this group of people have been there for me. Misty contacted me during this time asking for my story, asking what I needed from them. I was dismayed, I can’t climb I thought. But I have to tell myself that just because I can’t send 5.13 crack right now doesn’t mean I am not a climber.

“It’s not about how many times you fall down; it’s about how many times you get back up”. That sounds a lot like bouldering, and bouldering is fun.

#madrockclimbing #mistymountainthreadworks

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sunnydaleherald · 7 years

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The Sunnydale Herald Newsletter, Friday, April 7

[Drabbles & Short Fiction]

Giddy (Spike/Xander, PG) by forsaken2003

When The Stars Go Blue (Spike/Xander, NC-17) by ahestele

Secrets (Spike/Xander, NC-17) by ahestele

College Hard (Ensemble, Community xover, G) by fanboi214

Red (Tara/Willow, PG-13) by ScarletDrizzle

Untitled medieval AU drabble (Amy/willow, Not Rated) by radison

A Reason to Share a Hellmouth (Buffy/Faith, Not Rated) by radison

[Chaptered Fiction]

Midnight at LAX Chapters 1-2 (Spike/Xander, PG-13) by ahestele

Knight Errant Chapter 7 (Buffy/Spike, R) by Medievalchic

Help Wanted Chapter 7 (Buffy/Spike, PG-13) by Baphrosia (spuffy_luvr)

Forward Without Seeing Chapter 8 (Ensemble, R) by queen_insane

The Summer After Chapter 6 (Ensemble, G) by elisi

The Cyrano Factor Chapter 6 (Buffy/Spike, PG-13) by Medievalchic

All the King's Men Chapter 13 (Faith/John Constantine, xover with Hellblazer and Constantine, PG-13) by Dollar_Day

Buffy the Vampire Slayer: Season 6 Chapter 112 (Buffy/Spike, R) by Spikes KittyKat

Some Say in Ice Chapter 12 (Angel/Buffy, PG-13) by AriaAdagio

Episode 01 Salvage Chapter 1 (Ensemble, PG-13) by VHestin

Making my way back to you Chapter 1 (Buffy/Spike, R) by myrishlace

Never Stay With Spuffy Chapter 15 (Buffy/Spike, R) by Bojangles82

[Images, Audio & Video]

Artwork: Angel sketch and Oz sketch by gillyperkygoth

Artwork: Buffy reunion banners by izzyandsimon

Podcast: Episode #207: BtVS 5×17, Angel 2×17 – Pun Eggstravaganza by hypable

Podcast: 2.12: Bad Eggs by bufferingthevampireslayer

Podcast: Ep. 5 - “I Robot, You Jane” / “The Puppet Show” by Meet Me At The Bronze

Podcast: Season 3 Episode 11: Gingerbread with Guest Shellie by Babes Watch Buffy

[Reviews & Recaps]

BTVS reviewed: Season 11, Issue 04 by harsens-rob

Once More, With Feeling by tialovestelevision

AtS 5.11 - Damage by sulietsexual

Goombastomp: Buffyversed #5: “Never Kill a Boy on the First Date” Get’s Back to the Lore

Video: Still Pretty #3: Dead Things (S6.13) by Chipperish Media

Video: Still Pretty #2: Doublemeat Palace (S6.12) by Chipperish Media

Video: Still Pretty #1: Gone (S6.11) by Chipperish Media

Video: Buffy: Beer Bad (1999) by Movie Nights

[Recs]

Fanvid of the Week: “Seven Nation Army” (Buffy) recced by acollectivemind

[Community Announcements]

Challenge 87 - Reminder at slayerstillness

Round 24 Themes at btvsats20in20

Fuffy Day - May 9th by buffylovesfaith

[Fandom Discussions]

How would you have liked the spuffy arc and s6/7 in general to go? answered by rahirah

How do you feel about btvs season 6? answered by rahirah

buffy/faith fic prompts by nowrunalong

Very unpopular BTVS opinion by rorysummersblog

Video: Predictions for Buffyverse S11 Comics April 2017 by idkmybffjill730

Video: Watch This Space: Buffy Anniversary! by Maude Garrett's Geek Bomb

[Articles, Interviews, and Other News]

BravoTV: Sarah Michelle Gellar Reveals Which Buffy Stars She'd Shag, Marry, and Kill by Aimée Lutkin

#btvs #buffy the vampire slayer #ats #angel the series #buffy

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disco-tea · 1 year

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Damage but it’s written by Jane Espenson. She would not have wasted the potential smh.

#btvs shitposting #AtS 5.11

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tamarajuana · 5 years

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2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334$6,164,000,69710.39%Sales Counts19,45320,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055$298,513

3.99%

Median Price$219,998$227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

20172018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822$415,682,106-7.56%Counts1,6501,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527$311,13914.17%Median$218,000$230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

There is a seesaw going on in the market between resales and new construction. Right now new construction is offering a quality product at a slightly higher price. From our experience, the consumer is recognizing the value and will to pay that premium.

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The bubbles of sales activity by price showed the market is essentially the same year over year with the difference in price. This is essentially inflation. Below, is the chart for December 2017 versus December 2018.

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76%19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66%15.09%7.44%Punta Gorda18.51%14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61%9.74%0.79%Miromar Lakes20.27%22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81%0.47%9.29%Fort Myers Beach3.98%7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33%7.05%3.99%Estero14.89%12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01%-14.10%25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28%3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40%5.52%-1.06%Bokeelia1.84%-0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11%28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

VolumeCounts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51%0.00%-0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31%-20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda-4.08%11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00%-28.87%16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96%40.00%-42.11%Lehigh Acres-15.79%-18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach21.64%23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59%-19.54%3.67%Estero15.48%-11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60%-50.00%38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50%-28.85%4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96%5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72%10.00%32.47%Alva70.63%20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,51913,295

6.20%

Villa Attached8118849.00%Low Rise (1-3)3,4663,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

7097789.73%Townhouse742738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

5225220.00%Manufactured587702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728$335,4704.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076$222,2127.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005$209,9481.91%Mid Rise (4-7)$266,539$263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575$195,2264.08%High Rise (8+)$512,338$526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816$110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,9888,306

3.98%

Cash %41.06%40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630454-27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24%2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

10079-21.00%Short Sale %0.51%0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed3.75%2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

20172018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

276427971.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21%13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

662070286.16%Waterfront % of sales counts34.03%34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres7462143179

Cape Coral

261358464875Fort Myers31446651554

Alva

80164146North Fort Myers531107389

Estero

80714251197Bokeelia671089

Matlacha

213238St. James City12517915

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

119917101438Punta Gorda51726

Fort Myers Beach

363465399

Miromar Lakes

74807

Sanibel34334729

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listingsannual sales countsmonthly absorptionMonths of inventory

33972

104350294

33971

15150442

33976

1143352843390715944737

33905

2246155143399130282869

33974

1213302843390932287873

33973

225855

33990

26669358

33967

2195264453393623656347

33919462110292

33917

2866315353396616736631

33914

7261517126633928512105288

33913

4789708163390119438832

33904

5581103926

33912

355661556

33993

46886172

33903

2484473773391622038932

34135

83213891167341358321389116

33908

8161355113733922671099

33956

1261791583395551726

33931

3664683993413456958148

33957

3413462912

34119

2424212

34110

29242

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

The negative price pressure from the last cycle was driven by distressed sales. This was the aftermath of a mania. We prepare a report each month about this, here is a link to the December 2018 Lee County Florida foreclosure report.

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

This chart shows the growth of residential debt, notice at the time of this chart, it has not surpassed the levels of the last cycle. I not saying it will not correct in the next correction but this is illuminating as to potential levels and intensity of correction.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

This market does not share the same modalities of the 2006 crash. If and when a correction happens, it will be different in intensity and duration. Using the last correction as a playbook can be problematic.

December 2018 was pretty awful from a statistical point of view, January 2019 appears to be on the same path from a year over year perspective. Is this a trend or just the economy playing wait and see with the Macro pictures trials and tribulations?

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

Steelbridge Realty LLC is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting-edge marketing techniques and data-driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever-changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

source https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://steelbridgerealtyllc.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county_28.html

0 notes

mcmiimms · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://rxnctus.tumblr.com/post/182384806086

0 notes

bitterbisous · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://rxnctus.tumblr.com/post/182384806086

0 notes

rxnctus · 5 years

Text

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

If you have Real Estate related questions call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.

_podioWebForm.render("1020721")

Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County appeared first on Steelbridge Realty LLC.

from Steelbridge Realty LLC https://northfortmyersonline.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/

0 notes

ourlittletree · 5 years

Text

2019 market outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects.

To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

youtube

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting.

One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 market outlook for Lee County appeared first on SWFL Real Estate Investing.

from SWFL Real Estate Investing https://swflreia.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from SWFL REIA https://ayda-1941.tumblr.com/post/182382052239

0 notes

chrisknolanfl · 5 years

Text

2019 market outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334 $6,164,000,697 10.39% Sales Counts 19,453 20,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055 $298,513

3.99%

Median Price $219,998 $227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

2017 2018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822 $415,682,106 -7.56% Counts 1,650 1,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527 $311,139 14.17% Median $218,000 $230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76% 19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66% 15.09% 7.44% Punta Gorda 18.51% 14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61% 9.74% 0.79% Miromar Lakes 20.27% 22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81% 0.47% 9.29% Fort Myers Beach 3.98% 7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33% 7.05% 3.99% Estero 14.89% 12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01% -14.10% 25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28% 3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40% 5.52% -1.06% Bokeelia 1.84% -0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11% 28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December % Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Volume Counts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51% 0.00% -0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31% -20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda -4.08% 11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00% -28.87% 16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96% 40.00% -42.11% Lehigh Acres -15.79% -18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach 21.64% 23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59% -19.54% 3.67% Estero 15.48% -11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60% -50.00% 38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50% -28.85% 4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96% 5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72% 10.00% 32.47% Alva 70.63% 20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,519 13,295

6.20%

Villa Attached 811 884 9.00% Low Rise (1-3) 3,466 3,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

709 778 9.73% Townhouse 742 738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

522 522 0.00% Manufactured 587 702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017 Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728 $335,470 4.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076 $222,212 7.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005 $209,948 1.91% Mid Rise (4-7) $266,539 $263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575 $195,226 4.08% High Rise (8+) $512,338 $526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816 $110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,988 8,306

3.98%

Cash % 41.06% 40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

2017 2018 The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630 454 -27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24% 2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

100 79 -21.00% Short Sale % 0.51% 0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed 3.75% 2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

2017 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

2764 2797 1.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21% 13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

6620 7028 6.16% Waterfront % of sales counts 34.03% 34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres 746 2143 179

Cape Coral

2613 5846 487 5 Fort Myers 3144 6651 554

Alva

80 164 14 6 North Fort Myers 531 1073 89

Estero

807 1425 119 7 Bokeelia 67 108 9

Matlacha

21 32 3 8 St. James City 125 179 15

City

Active listings # of Sales in the last 12 months 12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

1199 1710 143 8 Punta Gorda 51 72 6

Fort Myers Beach

363 465 39 9

Miromar Lakes

74 80 7

Sanibel 343 347 29

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listings annual sales counts monthly absorption Months of inventory

33972

104 350 29 4

33971

151 504 42

33976

114 335 28 4 33907 159 447 37

33905

224 615 51 4 33991 302 828 69

33974

121 330 28 4 33909 322 878 73

33973

22 58 5 5

33990

266 693 58

33967

219 526 44 5 33936 236 563 47

33919 462 1102 92

33917

286 631 53 5 33966 167 366 31

33914

726 1517 126 6 33928 512 1052 88

33913

478 970 81 6 33901 194 388 32

33904

558 1103 92 6

33912

355 661 55 6

33993

468 861 72

33903

248 447 37 7 33916 220 389 32

34135

832 1389 116 7 34135 832 1389 116

33908

816 1355 113 7 33922 67 109 9

33956

126 179 15 8 33955 51 72 6

33931

366 468 39 9 34134 569 581 48

33957

341 346 29 12

34119

24 24 2 12

34110

29 24 2

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

youtube

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 market outlook for Lee County appeared first on SWFL Real Estate Investing.

from SWFL Real Estate Investing https://swflreia.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from SWFL REIA https://swflreia.tumblr.com/post/182382227744

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valentinatoledoor · 5 years

Text

2019 market outlook for Lee County

The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019.

About the presentation:

Data from MLS (exported 1/14/2019 9:26 AM) and public records.

Trended with Microsoft Excel.

Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.

The information was prepared for the use of Steelbridge Realty and shared at the meeting.

youtube

Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?

December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that.

Let’s talk about the December 2018.

In my opinion, the stock market correcting was a few things:

Wall Street traders are/were reallocating for a cyclical bear market.

They did this because of Fed Bank rate hikes.

When the prime lending rate breaks 5.5%, we generally have a recession in 9 to 18 months.

Our leverage structure as a result of the aftermath of 2008 is different than in previous cycles.

High-Frequency trading went wild as a result.

The Plunge Protection Team Gone got involved.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018

2017

2018

% Difference

Sales Volume

$5,584,071,334$6,164,000,69710.39%Sales Counts19,45320,649

6.15%

Average Price

$287,055$298,513

3.99%

Median Price$219,998$227,900

3.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics

December 2017 versus December 2018

20172018

% Difference

Volume

$449,669,822$415,682,106-7.56%Counts1,6501,336

-19.03%

Average

$272,527$311,13914.17%Median$218,000$230,000

5.50%

The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year Built

This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.

Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count Patterns

Almost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by price

The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the City

This is the entire year versus the entire year.

By City% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

Sales Volume

Counts

Average Price

St. James City

19.76%19.35%

0.34%

Sanibel

23.66%15.09%7.44%Punta Gorda18.51%14.29%

3.70%

North Fort Myers

10.61%9.74%0.79%Miromar Lakes20.27%22.54%

-1.85%

Lehigh Acres

9.81%0.47%9.29%Fort Myers Beach3.98%7.53%

-3.30%

Fort Myers

11.33%7.05%3.99%Estero14.89%12.25%

2.35%

Captiva

8.01%-14.10%25.75%

Cape Coral

7.28%3.71%

3.44%

Bonita Springs

4.40%5.52%-1.06%Bokeelia1.84%-0.89%

2.76%

Alva

37.11%28.03%

7.09%

Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.

December vs December% Difference

Year Over Year

% Difference Year Over Year

VolumeCounts

Average Price

St. James City

-0.51%0.00%-0.51%

Sanibel

-10.31%-20.83%

13.29%

Punta Gorda-4.08%11.11%

-13.68%

North Fort Myers

-17.00%-28.87%16.68%

Miromar Lakes

-18.96%40.00%-42.11%Lehigh Acres-15.79%-18.54%

3.37%

Fort Myers Beach21.64%23.53%

-1.53%

Fort Myers

-16.59%-19.54%3.67%Estero15.48%-11.54%

30.54%

Captiva

-30.60%-50.00%38.79%

Cape Coral

-25.50%-28.85%4.70%

Bonita Springs

49.96%5.98%

41.49%

Bokeelia

45.72%10.00%32.47%Alva70.63%20.00%

42.19%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015.

The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property type

Sales Counts by Property Type

2017

2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

12,51913,295

6.20%

Villa Attached8118849.00%Low Rise (1-3)3,4663,643

5.11%

Mid Rise (4-7)

7097789.73%Townhouse742738

-0.54%

High Rise (8+)

5225220.00%Manufactured587702

19.59%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type

Average Price 2017Average Price 2018

The difference by % year over year.

Single Family

$319,728$335,4704.92%

Villa Attached

$207,076$222,2127.31%

Low Rise (1-3)

$206,005$209,9481.91%Mid Rise (4-7)$266,539$263,556

-1.12%

Townhouse

$187,575$195,2264.08%High Rise (8+)$512,338$526,010

2.67%

Manufactured

$106,816$110,881

3.81%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Number of cash sales

7,9888,306

3.98%

Cash %41.06%40.22%

-2.04%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics

20172018The difference by % year over year.

Bank Owned

630454-27.94%

Bank Owned %

3.24%2.20%

-32.11%

Short Sale

10079-21.00%Short Sale %0.51%0.38%

-25.58%

Total Distressed3.75%2.58%

-31.22%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics

20172018

The difference by % year over year.

Gulf Access Counts

276427971.19%

Gulf Access % of sales counts

14.21%13.55%

-4.67%

Waterfront Sales Counts

662070286.16%Waterfront % of sales counts34.03%34.04%

0.01%

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overview

As of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Lehigh Acres7462143179

Cape Coral

261358464875Fort Myers31446651554

Alva

80164146North Fort Myers531107389

Estero

80714251197Bokeelia671089

Matlacha

213238St. James City12517915

City

Active listings# of Sales in the last 12 months12-month burn rate

Number of months inventory

Bonita Springs

119917101438Punta Gorda51726

Fort Myers Beach

363465399

Miromar Lakes

74807

Sanibel34334729

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code

Postal Code

Active listingsannual sales countsmonthly absorptionMonths of inventory

33972

104350294

33971

15150442

33976

1143352843390715944737

33905

2246155143399130282869

33974

1213302843390932287873

33973

225855

33990

26669358

33967

2195264453393623656347

33919462110292

33917

2866315353396616736631

33914

7261517126633928512105288

33913

4789708163390119438832

33904

5581103926

33912

355661556

33993

46886172

33903

2484473773391622038932

34135

83213891167341358321389116

33908

8161355113733922671099

33956

1261791583395551726

33931

3664683993413456958148

33957

3413462912

34119

2424212

34110

29242

In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market update

A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.

Most agents can not see past their own financial status.

There are a lot of agents right now. These are only Residential sales in the MLS.

–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018.

–4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018.

–345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018.

Trends to Watch

2018 was pretty awesome across the mean.

3 months had more than 2,000 sales!

That may be hard to beat.

Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?

There are 153 homes with a year built 2017 and newer, that are active as of 1/16/2019.

843 have sold in the last 365 days.

That is 2.17 months inventory.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)

This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle.

2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion

2018 was a great year from a statistical perspective.

It may be tough, just by the sheer numbers, to beat that year.

In 2016, all of the economic talking heads were calling for a recession 2 years out. In 2018, they were saying the same thing. At some point, it has to happen.

We have 2 different economic trends happening in real estate. The Baby Boomer generation retirement and the Millenial/Gen Z coming of age. Each will have different and specific impacts on the market.

The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet.

We meet twice a month.

youtube

Click here for information about the monthly luncheon.

Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting.

We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Click here for membership information

Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.

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Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County

The post 2019 market outlook for Lee County appeared first on SWFL Real Estate Investing.

source https://swflreia.com/2019/01/28/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county/ from SWFL REIA https://swflreia2.blogspot.com/2019/01/2019-market-outlook-for-lee-county.html

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