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jqupohtia · 5 months

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Apokalypsis

When she leaves Elpis, Venat does not tell Phaethon her plan. She knows that what she must do would be particularly ghastly to someone whose soul has nearly cracked into pieces once, who has dealt with the pain of it every day since, who is a healer first before a fighter. Even if it was a piece of himself, standing proud and confident and determined despite the fragile shattered thing he was, that showed her the path she must take, she cannot risk him turning against her before she can even prepare, and so he is left in the dark.

Perhaps it is fate, or just twisted luck, that he would never have the chance to anyway.

Phaethon does not agree with the Convocation’s proposal. Not completely. But Azem does not defect from the convocation. He screams, he weeps, he rages, and he leaves, but he does not abandon them.

The Traveler is called away alongside the Contender, because the situation is getting worse and both the Words of Azem and Words of Nabriales have called for for their aid in a city not far from Amaurot, where rampant creations wreak havoc. It is his duty to help the people, and he has already seen so much death and horror, but he will not shy away from returning to it if it means saving more lives, so that there may be more left behind when they sacrifice themselves. When he sacrifices himself.

That is his condition for helping to create a god. That when they return, if there’s no better idea, he goes with the people sacrificed. Not as Zodiark’s heart, because there is too much despair and horror in him to not corrupt the God they will create, but to stand with those willing to fuel it. Some call it a noble choice, others misguided and foolish. He knows that it is cowardice. He cannot bear to face those left behind, nor those they'd ask to go in their stead.

But he doesn’t return.

Emet-Selch and Lahabrea also leave behind the endless debates and planning that have continued in their absence, and go to assist Nabriales and Azem when they both fail to return for several days. The carnage they find is horrific. Bodies litter the streets, and every moment fills Emet-Selch's senses with the steady stream of those who Return too soon. A devastatingly powerful creation runs rampant, and they find themselves focusing more on evacuating than defeating it, given the battered state they find Nabriales in.

It is only those three who return to the Convocation's chambers, once what citizens they can save are brought to Amaurot. When asked, they only say that Azem is gone.

Emet-Selch does not mention that there was barely a trace left of his aether, that was not tied up within the great beast destroying that ruined city. That he felt what little of it that remained return to the Star before they even left to help.

Lahabrea does not mention he found Azem shielding tiny bodies that likely were dead long before he was. Nor that he burned what remained before Emet-Selch could see for himself, as another piece of him broke under the weight of once again destroying someone he loved, so soon after restoring everything he had cut away.

Nabrieles does not mention he witnessed Azem’s fear and anger and sorrow manifest as the very beast that is now heading towards Amaurot, nor that he now fears himself and the others around him. That if something is not done, and fast, it has been proven even one of their number can become a danger to their people.

They do not mention the figure in white robes who watches as Azem's ashes disappear in the wind with so many others'.

What they do say is that there is no choice, and no time. They must summon Zodiark without Azem. As thirteen.

J'qupoh Tia survives his battle with Lahabrea not because of any special skill or quality of being Hydaelyn's champion, but because of a moment of hesitation. One brief moment where Lahabrea sees not the broken form of the mortal who has proven a nuisance in his plans to restore his God, but another's form. That of a man that has haunted him every moment he has worked behind these Scion's backs, whose vague likeness has made him take unnecessary risks. A man who had wormed his way past the walls he put up in the wake of Athena's betrayal his God's disrupted ascension the cutting away of what he saw as a threat to his duty to the Star. Who had fallen in doing his own duty, lain twisted and battered near beyond recognition, but not completely. Not quite.

That hesitation is long enough for Hydaelyn to interfere once again, pouring everything she can spare and more to keep her Champion alive. To restore life before that stubborn soul can leave, not so he can continue the duty he has been Chosen for, not because she recognized him as the one to find her in Elpis all those millenia ago. She saves him out of guilt, as an apology, for doubting him and not being by his side when he need her Before.

In that Light that pours life back into the Warrior's mangled form, Lahabrea sees Phaethon's face illuminated for one awful, undeniable moment. It is grief and rage over being betrayed again that drives him harder to destroy the Warrior of Light in the coming days.

Nabriales did not truly fear whatever trick the Scions had come up with to defeat him. Nothing they could do could truly end an immortal being, and even this white auracite would not be enough with their meager aether.

Or so he thought. When the second mortal woman, already weakened, sacrifices herself, his fear begins.

It grows stronger as he looks back at Hydaelyn's champion, and sees the rage, grief, and fear on his face, and recognizes it. Remembers, in ways the memory crystal he was bestowed could not give, the moment he saw that face twisted like that before, and feared death as he never had before.

It's a particularly cruel twist of fate that Emet-Selch's memories get away from him once again, when he shows J'qupoh Tia the fate of Amaurot. That it is the beast born from Phaethon's despair, high above the Star with a view the man nearly broke himself to see, that is his shard's final foe. It is an especially cruel twist that J'qupoh is able to recreate the worst of it's abilities so easily, and turn it against Emet-Selch once again.

Desperation, terror, and sorrow as he tried to save his people from an apocolypse brought about Phaethon's end.

Apokalypsis brought Emet-Selch's.

#ffxiv #drabble #i guess?#shadowbringers spoilers #endwalker spoilers #Azem #emet-selch #J'qupoh Tia #Phaethon #Lahabrea #Nabriales #character musings #Yes I did make Blue Mage a serious part of J'qupoh's lore #Yes I did decide to do it in the angstiest way possible #Yes J'qupoh canonically used Blue Mage spells against Hades #:)#also yes i am reposting i had Moar #EVERYTIME I LOOK AT THIS THERE'S A NEW TYPO HELP

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amara-among-the-stars · 13 days

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Here is chapter two of my crack fic being reposted. Like it, dont like idgaf. Added some more shit to it and it gave me serotonin.

OH EM!!! :333 ENJOY GAIIIZ. HERES CHAOTER TEW :3

And there Dew was. Cronch cronch cronching on those stupid Dortillo Ketchup Chips... like the heathen he is...

Swiss awesomely sighed and turned pulled his sunglasses down to raise an eyebrow at Dew.

"Dewdrop you're not giving very good ken-ergy and its throwing the vibes off. Thats not very party of you."

Swiss huffed.

Dew flipped Swiss off like the boss he is and flipped his hair.

“If anything I am Barbie Bitch and best if you remember that Swissthaniel Grenadine Dwyane.” Dewdrop retorted, producing a sushi bowl out of nowhere and eating it.

“Where the fawk did yew get that sushi?” Swiss asked, grabbing a piece.

“Places. I'm magic barbie. Bitch.” Dew huffed.

And then the fire ghoul proceeded to walk away in his high platform heels with his magical sushi.

Swiss was so super confused and decided to do some back walk overs to go bother Aether and Aeon to bother them because he was like sooooo super bored and wanted entertainment.

Swiss huffed and flopped like a fish onto Aether’s juicy thick ass thighs and stared at the ghoul.

“Yes Swissthaniel?” Aether asked.

“Entertain me. I'm bored.” Swiss replied.

Aether huffed and shoved Swiss off the couch.

“I am not thy court Jester!” Aether said in a REALLY funny accent like from Shakespeare's time.

“But Aethy!” Swiss whined like a dog.

“Hush! Be silent mere peasant! We are watching Romeo and Juliet! With Leonardo Di Capri Sun.” Aeon replied.

“Do you bite your thumb at us, sir?” Aether quoted.

“I do bite my thumb, sir.” Aeon chirped

“Do you bite your thumb at us, sir?” Aether questioned.

Swiss huffed and puffed at the nerds and left like the boss he is to go find entertainment.

Meanwhile, Rain and Dew were getting their nails done by Cirrus and Cumulus while Sunny and Rora were doing their hair. The duo wanted to totally look so fricken awesome that Dew was coloring his hair a … GUESS WHAT A PURPLE COLOR LIKE OH EM GEEEEEE. IS GONNA BE SO CUTEEEEE.

And Rain was doing theirs as a cool ombre of Teal and PINK. (Mostly bc they lost a bet to Mist hahaha get FUCKED RAINY)

Anywaiiiizzzz.

So Swiss continued on his adventure and finally met up with Ifrit in the courtyard. He was with Alpha and they were doing dude bro things like lifting weights and drinking smoothies like the respectful dude bro’s they are and invited Swiss to join them. He agreed and instantly became a dude bro as well with the cool ray dude sunglasses and a smoothy magically appeared. After they totally got like RIPPED AF they showered and then made dinner because they are RESPECTFUL DUDE BROS and Rainy and Dew showed off their cute hair and nails.

They also woke Mountain up to eat dinner and he grumpily removed himself from his beloved tree. (He has such a weird thing with wanting to be a tree. Like cmom u giant. THERE IS MOAR TO LYFE THAN BEING A FUCKING TREE!!!! )

After dinner the pack had a movie night, all laying on each other before passing the fuck out.

(A/n haiii gaiiiz i hope u enioyed part tew of mah fic :3 pls like and subscribe and retweet if you want moar of eht plssssssss!!!!)

#amara writes #crack fic #the band ghost #dewdrop ghoul #swiss ghoul #aether ghoul #pls this is so unserious.#this is not meant to be taken seriously. i promise

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zumpietoo · 6 months

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Now For Pressed....

I should preface this with--this arrived MINUTES after I bagged on Peepster last nite.....(but I was tired....), only further cementing just how obsessed the BB is with me.

It's loonnggg so the TWO full snips will be dragged in two parts, here!

We've already discussed this. She scabbed. And routinely violated other strike rules, because she was also desperate for attention....and I've detailed it all along. However, I AM still waiting for proof of

A) Cole is an abuser

B) Cabana Boi was in NYC....(tho that IS possible, buuuutt....funny how KlasseeereinPP didn't take a pic with him, as well, hmm??)

And it's my blog, I don't have to "shut" anything....

Actually, no to all of the above on the second paragraph. If Peepster were "keeping her relationship private", we never would've had the myriad of Power Couple pap pics she arranged. We wouldn't have had her included in videos by his friends, because those could be edited out, easily....and she would've requested as much (plus his friends all fucking hate her, so I'm sure the little we've seen was because they asked for it).

If anything? Still much moar effective/easier to argue it's a Pee Arr relationship, given how staged it is.

Plus I thought keeping your relationship private (as I already noted) was evvvollll/done cuz makes it easier to cheat? You, once again, don't get to have it both ways.

Apparently you also can't read, because I pointed out not that she's IN her family photos (few that there are), but how awkward and uncomfortable she looks in her clearly obligatory visit....oh and her general lack of interaction, even still with them. I'm sorry you're so stupid.

How exactly am I "harassing" anybody by reposting already publicly posted pics? That isn't stalking, either, because, again....they're all fully aware (or should be, after 8 years) that their pics with her ARE gonna generate moar attention than other families.

PLUS.....we're talking about the same peeps who routinely leaked and shared her, Cole and a child for clicks for fucking years. Again, don't get to have it both ways....

As for Cabana Boi? Yes, I do think it's way too soon.....but y'all didn't and are simply off weeping because of it. Additionally, there seems to have been no interaction between them for a month, now....which is what you're really upset about.

AND that she, yet again, even tho just a few hours drive/on the way to NC, didn't bother to meet his 'rents....

Errmmm....let's see....there's nothing wrong with factual criticism of anybody....but, the BB? Do in fact stalk his IG, leave pointless hate on other posts, send death threats, have freely admitted they exist, entirely to "destroy him" and their hate is obsessive, false and irrational.

Oh and hypocritical.....so, since they're like 12 billion times moar egregious, why are you kewl with them, but not me? And, again, please provide proof of anything....

Again, dude....no. Shit is shared with me in DMs. Now, do I find her assholishness to be entertaining? Obviously.....but I never "claimed to hate her", tho if I did, WTF is it to you, anyway?

And why so suddenly worried about what I do----and do you send the same the the BB for their obsession with Cole and myself?

I believe all that applies to yourself (for sending anon hate) and the rest of the BB, once again....plus, WTF is it to you and why are you here? It's untagged and nobody's forcing you. What's embarrassing is your obsession with ME

Pretty sure it's because you're legit THAT upset that

A) PP's relationship with her "nice family" continues to be increasingly strained

B) No Turkey Day Cabana Pee

PS Ummm.....nope. Nor did that person sound anything like me and I'm perfectly happy to claim credit for what I do....

KISSESSSSS!!!!

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terrancedkennedy · 7 years

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Repost: Nassim Taleb, Thanksgiving Turkeys, and Inverse VIX ETFs

*This will be the last repost, I promise - will no longer use the blogger app that keeps deleting this post*

We've documented here in the past the dangerous embedded in this current low volatility environment. If there is a volatility blow up, it is easy to imagine how easily things can snowball out of control. With that said, one of the areas not covered in minute detail is the prevalence of inverse VIX ETFs.

Before getting into that, here is some free promotion for Nassim Taleb's Fooled By Randomness and Black Swan books.

In one of the books (can't remember which one), Taleb pompously explains the simple concept pertaining the flaws of logic, the dangers of using specific incidences to reach general conclusions. One variant of this is using the past to predict the future. Amidst his grandiose and philosophically ridden text is quite a simple and down to earth example.There is a turkey who is fed and taken care of until it is Thanksgiving time. If one was to chart the well-being of a turkey through this course of events, it would go something like so:

Now, when my parents heard I was trading my own money (back in undergrad...ah...those were the days), they frequently asked me whether I can lose everything in one day (they've heard the folktales and war stories of market-on-participant violence). I repeatedly said "No!".Even during the most violent market crashes, there are a number of opportunities for non-institutional participants to get out. 1987 is the example of the most violent and immediate market crash I personally know. Even then, market participants with a nose for market timing had a few chances to exit the market with relatively mild losses or even be able to profit.

Then came 2017 and the prevalence of inverse VIX ETFs. Let's read a description excerpt from one of these bad boys.

The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. The index was designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the VIX, which reflects implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve.

That statement brings up some intriguing questions:

What happens when, in one session, the VIX increases by 100% or more?

Has that happened? What happens to inverse VIX ETFs then?

What if the VIX increases by 50% or more - what happens to levered positions on inverse VIX ETFs? etc. etc. First, has it happened?

I looked at two different volatility gauges - the VIX directly and the older VXO (volatility for S&P 100) indicatively. Clearly, there is little that bounds these volatility gauges from appreciating upwards of 100% on a daily basis.In fact, here are the times in history (of data available to me) when you would've gone bust holding these inverse VIX ETFs, if they existed in the past. I looked at both daily returns (prev day close vs next day close) and intraday returns (prev day close vs next day high).I looked at scenarios with 0 leverage, 2x leverage and 3x leverage (believe it or not, I know of retail participants trading inverse VIX ETFs on leverage). I crunched some numbers and built a matrix with the 25 biggest return days in each scenario for each instrument. Times, when one would go bust, are in bold. Calculations are indicative as I am looking at spot VIX.

So yes, it's possible to go bust when these volatility gauges spikes, especially when levered.

What will those ETF instruments do when they should be down 100% or more?From reading the prospectus it seems that an event of a spike in volatility occurs, it would be an "Acceleration Event" defined as:

includes any event that adversely affects our ability to hedge or our rights in connection with the ETNs, including, but not limited to, if the Intraday Indicative Value is equal to or less than 20% of the prior day’s Closing Indicative Value.

where the manager of the ETF will liquidate its assets and proceeds distributed.It's almost as if Nassim Taleb specifically built an instrument to illustrate his turkey concept.What about the larger market impact?From my digging, there seemed to upwards of 2.5 billion dollars invested in different VIX funds, mostly short vol in the form of XIV.

Although 2.5 billion dollar seems small in the grand scheme of an entire financial market. It is still a sizable amount held by retail that can potentially disappear into thin air.Yield enhancement of a portfolio is all well and fine but there are ways to do it, and ways not to do it. There are also times to do it, and times when you shouldn't. Something to chew on.I assume not too many Macro-Man readers are collecting nickels via these inverse VIX ETFs at this point of the market cycle. But if you are, congrats on the money you've piled up - and you should probably reduce positions to an amount you're okay with, if it evaporates in a day's time.Portfolio Updates:

Short oil. There are a few tidbits regarding oil that has prompted me to cover Thursday. First Venezuela is a mess and there is the possibility that no oil comes out of the country. This is a concern for a short like me, as they are a huge global oil producer.

Additionally, higher US rates scare me as they can put meaningful pressure on US producers, which can lead to a reduction of supply.

Thirdly, the chart's just not cooperating for oil - seems to be making a bottom.

Lastly, perma-bull Andy Hall threw in the proverbial towel a week ago. I know it's anecdotal, but I think it speaks volumes regarding this market's sentiment.Even if the oil market goes lower, there will probably be an easier time to go back short - when it feels less like I am fighting the market.Short equities, we have seen the rally that I believed was in the cards - now will tech top out at this potentially lower high? I loaded up on an even bigger position Thursday. Will be either vindicated or stopped out within the next three sessions.

Long USDJPY. Unlimited. Bond. Purchases. If JGB yields rise with the rest of the world's duration, then the BOJ has to buy more. The more the BOJ owns, the less liquidity that market will be and the more broken that market will become (just ask any bond trader).

A reflexive process can potentially take hold here: the weaker the Yen becomes, fewer participants who are not mandated to hold JGBs will want to own them (not to mention less liquidity in the market). The less they want to own them the more they will want to sell. The more they will sell means that the BOJ will have to print more Yen to buy JGBs and also coincidentally make JGBs less attractive vis-à-vis the currency and also killing the market's liquidity.

So how much Yen will the BOJ have to print in order to buy an asset that most will not want to own? I don't know but probably a lot. Probably moar.

For all the commodity heads who follow the blog - look out for an upcoming softs post. Soft commodities, especially cocoa, are starting to look very interesting from the long side.Thanks all, as always, good luck out there.

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