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junker-town · 7 years

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2017-18 college basketball top 25: An updated look at next season's top teams

Plenty of changes have taken place over the past eight weeks, including the team that sits atop our early rankings.

Now that we know who’s heading to the NBA Draft and who’s returning to the college game for at least one more year, it’s time to re-evaluate our super early top 25 from the moments immediately following the 2017 national title game.

We’ll start with the new king of the offseason.

1. Arizona Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-5

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

Arizona already had a claim for this spot a month ago, but the returns of Allonzo Trier and Rawle Alkins as well as the unexpected addition of Emmanuel Akot have the Wildcats as the team most likely to begin 2017-18 at No. 1. Has Sean Miller ever been to a Final Four before? We should probably discuss that at some point in the next nine months.

2. Kansas Jayhawks

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

Bill Self is losing the National Player of the Year in Frank Mason as well as freshman star Josh Jackson, but there are also a lot of smaller pieces from the 2016-17 Big 12 champions that are coming back. Mississippi State transfer Malik Newman, a former five-star recruit, should help cushion the blow of Mason’s departure. It’s also easy to see Devonte' Graham taking the Mason’s spotlight role and becoming a national POY candidate himself.

3. Duke Blue Devils

2016-17 Record: 28-9

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

The Blue Devils won’t be as star-studded this season as they were in 2016-17, but that doesn’t mean they won’t wind up being more successful. For the first time in three years, Coach K will have a legitimate point guard in five-star freshman Trevon Duval. The presence of Duval should also allow Grayson Allen to move back to his more natural spot off the ball. If he can avoid all of the distractions that have plagued him for the past year and a half, perhaps Allen can wind up having the All-American season as a senior that everyone thought he’d have in 2016-17.

4. Michigan State Spartans

2016-17 Record: 20-15

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

There is no single player whose return to college basketball matters more than Miles Bridges’ to East Lansing. The rising sophomore figured to be a lottery pick in next month’s NBA Draft. Instead, he’s a near lock to be a preseason first team All-American in 2017-18 and has Michigan State back to being a national championship-caliber team.

5. Wichita State Shockers

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Don’t be surprised at all if in 2017-18 Wichita State winds up stepping into the role that Gonzaga inhabited throughout last season. The Shockers return every key player from a team that won 31 games and got them into the top 10 of the national rankings. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s likely consideration of metrics outside of just the RPI would also help Wichita avoid being massively under-seeded for a fourth straight year. The Shockers’ move to the American Athletic Conference — where they’ll likely be preseason favorites in their first year — should help with that as well.

6. Kentucky Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-6

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

The annual mass exodus at Kentucky was even more extreme than usual this year, as the Wildcats lost pair of senior contributors and a sophomore starter in addition to their star freshmen. In all, UK lost its top seven scorers and eight of its top nine from a team that nearly knocked off eventual national champion North Carolina in the Elite Eight. As he always does, John Calipari will reload with another top two recruiting class. He also received huge news in the 11th hour of deadline day when the ridiculously athletic Hamidou Diallo announced that he would be returning to Lexington ... for his freshman season.

7. Villanova Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-4

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Because of their early exit in March, too many people are overlooking the fact that Villanova followed up its national title in 2016 by earning the NCAA tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. Josh Hart was the biggest reason that happened, and he’s gone, but the cupboard isn’t completely bare for Jay Wright. Jalen Brunson has all the potential necessary to be ‘Nova’s next superstar, and Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth and Donte DiVincenzo are all back to form a solid nucleus around him. Also don’t forget about Omari Spellman, a top 20 player from the class of 2016 who was forced to sit out all of last season because of an academic issue.

8. Florida Gators

2016-17 Record: 27-9

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

Last season’s regional final run could be just the beginning for the Mike White era in Gainesville. The Gators lost starting point guard Kasey Hill and grad transfer Canyon Barry, but return the other most important pieces from their surprisingly successful 2016-17 campaign. Having a healthy John Egbunu back will only make them more formidable.

9. North Carolina Tar Heels

2016-17 Record: 33-7

2016-17 Finish: National Champions

The Heels occupied the top spot in our first set of rankings right after the national title game, but the surprise departure of talented freshman big man Tony Bradley changes things. With Kennedy Meeks and Justin Jackson also gone, Final Four MOP Joel Berry will now be asked to do a ton for a UNC team that won’t be able to dominate the offensive glass the way they have the past two years.

10. West Virginia Mountaineers

2016-17 Record: 28-9

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

Four key players including two senior starters from last season’s team are gone, but Daxter Miles and Jevon Carter are back to form one of the best backcourts in the country. The biggest key for West Virginia, however, is that there’s more than enough carryover for Bob Huggins’ “Press Virginia” style to terrorize all Mountaineer opponents for yet another year.

11. USC Trojans

2016-17 Record: 26-10

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Andy Enfield quietly did one of the best coaching jobs in all of college basketball last season. After an overachieving 2015-16, his team appeared to be all set to have “the year” before a wave of unexpected departures left the program in a state of disarray. While the Trojans weren’t on the same level as UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona in the Pac-12, they were competitive enough to earn a second straight trip to the Big Dance and win two games after getting there. Now, he has every key member from that team back for another run. USC also tosses five-star forward Charles O'Bannon Jr. and Duke transfer Derryck Thornton into the mix.

12. Louisville Cardinals

2016-17 Record: 25-9

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

With Donovan Mitchell, Louisville had a legitimate claim to the top spot on this list. Without both Mitchell and surprise departure Jaylen Johnson, the Cardinals are going to need both some returnees to step up and its freshman class to help out significantly if they want to be in the mix for a Final Four trip. Deng Adel needs to assume Mitchell’s role as a First Team All-ACC level performer, and former McDonald’s All-American V.J. King needs to morph into one of the country’s top breakout sophomores.

13. Miami Hurricanes

2016-17 Record: 21-12

2016-17 Finish: First Round

The Hurricanes were trounced by Michigan State in the first round of the 2017 tournament, but should be able to put themselves in a position to avoid a similar letdown in 2018. Miami loses Davon Reed and Kamari Murphy, but returns stars Ja’Quan Newton and Bruce Brown. They also add the best recruiting class ever put together by Jim Larranaga.

14. Seton Hall Pirates

2016-17 Record: 21-12

2016-17 Finish: First Round

With Andel Delgado opting to pull his name out of the draft, Kevin Willard returns a team with four players who have been starters on back-to-back NCAA tournament squads.

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

2016-17 Record: 30-6

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Troy Caupain leaves big shoes to fill, but fellow stars Jacob Evans and Gary Clark are back from Mick Cronin’s strongest Cincinnati team to date. Sacred Heart transfer Cane Broome should add even more offensive firepower to a roster that should provide the best competition for Wichita State in the AAC.

16. Gonzaga Bulldogs

2016-17 Record: 37-2

2016-17 Finish: National Runners-Up

Yes, they lost All-American Nigel Williams-Goss and yes, potential lottery lottery pick Zach Collins became the first one-and-done program history, but doubt the Zags at your own peril. Mark Few has plenty of talent on his roster that the nation didn’t get to see much of this year, because he didn’t need to show much of it this year. Don’t be surprised if the country writes off Gonzaga once again and they’re right back in the thick of the national discussion come February.

17. Minnesota Golden Gophers

2016-17 Record: 24-10

2016-17 Finish: First Round

The Golden Gophers were one of the most pleasant surprises of the 2016-17 season, but expectations will be higher for Richard Pitino and company now. Thankfully, Pitino returns every player outside of senior Akeem Springs from the team that did enough damage in the Big Ten to earn a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

18. Xavier Musketeers

2016-17 Record: 24-14

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

For a second straight year, Trevon Bluiett flirted significantly with the NBA before ultimately opting to come back to school. His return should put the Musketeers in a position to enjoy more March magic, but with a more fitting seed this time.

19. Alabama Crimson Tide

2016-17 Record: 19-15

2016-17 Finish: NIT First Round

Avery Johnson’s program is about to be a problem in the SEC. He returns sophomore standouts Braxton Key and Dazon Ingram from a team that took down eventual national semifinalist South Carolina twice. But the biggest reason for this jump is the addition of a top five recruiting class headlined by one of the class of 2017’s top pure scorers, Collin Sexton.

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2016-17 Record: 26-10

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Mike Brey simply does not let the Irish fall too far. Point guard Matt Farrell and Third Team All-American Bonzie Colson are back to lead yet another Notre Dame team that will be right there in the top third of the ACC.

21. Butler Bulldogs

2016-17 Record: 25-9

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

Butler put a nice cap on a somewhat enigmatic season by playing true to their seed and advancing to the Sweet 16 where they fell to eventual national champion North Carolina. Leading scorer Kelan Martin is back and should be one of the top contenders for Big East Player of the Year, and Chris Holtmann is also bringing in a wave of new talent with three four-star freshmen.

22. Virginia Tech Hokies

2016-17 Record: 22-11

2016-17 Finish: First Round

It certainly feels like Buzz Williams is just getting started. The 2017-18 team already owns the odd status of returning all five starters, but losing its top two scorers in Seth Allen and Zach LeDay. Nobody said Buzz was conventional.

23. Northwestern Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 24-12

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Chris Collins returns nearly every key contributor from the Northwestern team that made history by finally getting the program into the NCAA tournament and eventually winning a game there.

24. Saint Mary’s Gaels

2016-17 Record: 29-5

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

It wasn’t just Gonzaga which held it down for the West Coast Conference in the NCAA tournament. Saint Mary’s handled VCU in round one of the Big Dance before pushing second-seeded Arizona to the brink two days later. Jock Landale is back for his senior season and ready to earn the title of the most-efficient big man in college basketball.

25. UCLA Bruins

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

With Thomas Welsh and Aaron Holiday back and another loaded recruiting class joining the fold, it looks on the surface like UCLA shouldn’t slip too far in the post-Lonzo Ball world. Then again, this is a program where weird things happen sometimes.

The Next 10:

26. Texas

27. Michigan

28. Baylor

29. TCU

30. Rhode Island

31. Missouri

32. Purdue

33. Nevada

34. Wisconsin

35. Creighton

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junker-town · 7 years

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An extremely early top 25 for college basketball’s 2017-18 season

There are a ridiculous amount of things that need to happen before we can realistically start looking at the 2017-18 college basketball season, but let's not let that fact be the thing that stands in our way.

The overwhelming majority of "who's going to the draft/who's coming back" drama has yet to play out, and the annual transfer market will only start really heating up now. Basically, we still have a significant amount to learn before we have any real idea of what the landscape of the college hoops world is going to look like heading into the 2017-18 season.

Not that any of that is going to keep this way too early top 25 from happening.

Let’s hit it.

1. North Carolina Tar Heels

2016-17 Record: 33-7

2016-17 Finish: National Champions

Why not? That’s the worst possible way to begin a justification, but with so little clarity about anything at the moment, it seems as safe a jumping off point as any other. UNC will lose a trio of productive seniors as well as (in all likelihood) First Team All-American and ACC Player of the Year Justin Jackson. Still, the cupboard is far from bare for Roy Williams. If Final Four MOP Joel Berry and potential mega-star Tony Bradley both return for one more year, the nucleus will be in place for the Heels to make yet another run to the first Monday in April.

2. Duke Blue Devils

2016-17 Record: 28-9

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Maybe Duke just needs a clean start this go-round. Maybe they need fewer distractions. Or maybe they just need to avoid having a hundred different little things go against them over the course of a five-month span of time.

The Blue Devils won’t have the same level of star-power in 2017-18 that they did this past season, but it’s a safe bet that they’ll play their way out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Frank Jackson showed the potential to blossom into a star near the end of his freshman season, and Coach K is bringing yet another star-studded recruiting class to Durham. If either Luke Kennard or Grayson Allen chooses to return to college for one more go, then this could be your preseason No. 1 for a second straight year.

3. Arizona Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-5

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

Kadeem Allen was the only senior on this year’s roster, but it’s more likely than not that Sean Miller will lose at least two of his four star underclassmen to the NBA Draft. If he can get just one or two of those guys back, then they should be able to join forces with all-everything freshman DeAndre Ayton to have the Wildcats right back in the hunt for Miller’s ever-elusive first Final Four appearance.

4. Louisville Cardinals

2016-17 Record: 25-9

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Donovan Mitchell is the decision to watch here. If the First Team All-ACC guard chooses to put the NBA on-hold for one more year, then Louisville will return seven of its top eight scorers from a team that earned a No. 2 seed in the 2017 NCAA tournament. Rick Pitino also adds a top 10 recruiting class headlined by versatile 6’10 forward Malik Williams.

5. Kansas Jayhawks

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

History shows that picking them any lower than this is pretty foolish. Bill Self is losing the national Player of the Year in Frank Mason as well as freshman star Josh Jackson, but there are also a lot of smaller pieces from the 2016-17 Big 12 champions that are coming back. Mississippi State transfer Malik Newman, a former five-star recruit, should help cushion the blow of Mason’s departure.

6. Kentucky Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-6

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

The annual mass exodus at Kentucky will be even more extreme than usual this year, as the Wildcats will have to replace a pair of senior contributors and (potentially) a sophomore starter in addition to their star freshmen. John Calipari will reload with three elite freshman big men to go along with new point guard Quade Green. UK is also in on a couple of the top unsigned players from the 2017 class, including top 10 players Mohamed Bamba and Kevin Knox.

7. Florida Gators

2016-17 Record: 27-9

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

This year’s regional final run could be just the beginning for the Mike White era in Gainesville. The Gators lose starting point guard Kasey Hill and grad transfer Canyon Barry, but should return the other most important pieces from their surprisingly successful 2016-17 campaign. Having a healthy John Egbunu back will only make them more formidable.

8. Wichita State Shockers

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Don’t be surprised at all if in 2017-18 Wichita State winds up stepping into the role that Gonzaga has inhabited for the past four months. The Shockers should return every key player from a team that won 31 games and got them into the top 10 of the national rankings. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s potential consideration of metrics outside of just the RPI would also help Wichita avoid being massively under-seeded for a fourth straight year.

9. West Virginia Mountaineers

2016-17 Record: 28-9

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

Two senior starters are gone, but Daxter Miles and Jevon Carter should return to form one of the best backcourts in the country. Plus, that “Press Virginia” style that has made the Mountaineers a matchup nightmare isn’t going anywhere either.

10. Gonzaga Bulldogs

2016-17 Record: 37-2

2016-17 Finish: National Runners-Up

A lot of this hinges on the decisions of Second Team All-American Nigel Williams-Goss and potential lottery pick Zach Collins. Even if both those players bolt, however, Mark Few has plenty of talent on his roster that the nation didn’t get to see much of this year, because he didn’t need to show much of it this year. Don’t be surprised if the country writes off Gonzaga once again and they’re right back in the thick of the national title race next March.

11. Villanova Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 32-4

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Replacing First Team All-American Josh Hart and March Madness icon Kris Jenkins is no easy task, but Jay Wright should be able to do the job relatively smoothly. After all, the man does everything relatively smoothly. Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, Donte DiVincenzo and Mikal Bridges should all return to form a core that is once again the best in the Big East.

12. Michigan State Spartans

2016-17 Record: 20-15

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Tom Izzo’s not going to let his program go through another season like the one it just endured, even if was injury-riddled and somewhat saved near the end. With Miles Bridges about to be a lottery pick, the biggest issue for Michigan State is going to be finding at least one bon-a-fide star out of a large group of players who have been solid, but not spectacular so far in their careers.

13. Miami Hurricanes

2016-17 Record: 21-12

2016-17 Finish: First Round

The team that Michigan State trounced in the first round of the 2017 Big Dance should also be ready to take a large step up in class. Miami loses Davon Reed and Kamari Murphy, but returns stars Ja’Quan Newton and Bruce Brown, and adds the best recruiting class ever put together by Jim Larranaga.

14. USC Trojans

2016-17 Record: 26-10

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Andy Enfield quietly did one of the best coaching jobs in all of college basketball last season. After an overachieving 2015-16, his team appeared to be all set to have “the year” before a wave of unexpected departures left the program in a state of disarray. While the Trojans weren’t on the same level as UCLA, Oregon and Arizona in the Pac-12, they were competitive enough to earn a second straight trip to the Big Dance and win two games after getting there. With the nucleus of that team returning and a top 20 recruiting class joining the fold, “the year” might finally be here for Enfield’s program.

15. Cincinnati Bearcats

2016-17 Record: 30-6

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Troy Caupain leaves big shoes to fill, but fellow stars Jacob Evans and Gary Clark are back from Mick Cronin’s strongest UC team to date. Sacred Heart transfer Cane Broome should add even more offensive firepower to a roster that would appear to be the class of the AAC.

16. Minnesota Golden Gophers

2016-17 Record: 24-10

2016-17 Finish: First Round

17. Butler Bulldogs

2016-17 Record: 25-9

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

18. Xavier Musketeers

2016-17 Record: 24-14

2016-17 Finish: Elite Eight

Trevon Bluiett nearly bolted to the NBA a year ago before deciding at the last second to return to school. If he does the same thing this spring, then Xavier could be poised for yet another deep run in the NCAA tournament. If he doesn’t, Chris Mack should still have enough pieces to compete with the top of the Big East.

19. Saint Mary’s Gaels

2016-17 Record: 29-5

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

It wasn’t just Gonzaga which held it down for the West Coast Conference in the NCAA tournament. Saint Mary’s handled VCU in round one of the Big Dance before pushing second-seeded Arizona to the brink two days later. Jock Landale will more than likely return for his senior season and earn the title of the most efficient big man in college basketball.

20. Alabama Crimson Tide

2016-17 Record: 19-15

2016-17 Finish: NIT First Round

21. Virginia Tech Hokies

2016-17 Record: 22-11

2016-17 Finish: First Round

22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2016-17 Record: 26-10

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Mike Brey simply does not let the Irish fall too far. Point guard Matt Farrell and All-ACC performer Bonzie Colson are back to lead yet another Notre Dame team that will be right there in the top third of the ACC.

23. Northwestern Wildcats

2016-17 Record: 24-12

2016-17 Finish: Second Round

Chris Collins returns nearly every key contributor from the Northwestern team that made history by finally getting the program into the NCAA tournament and eventually winning a game there.

24. Seton Hall Pirates

2016-17 Record: 21-12

2016-17 Finish: First Round

If nobody bounces to the league unexpectedly, then Kevin Willard should have a team with four players who have been starters on back-to-back NCAA tournament teams.

25. UCLA Bruins

2016-17 Record: 31-5

2016-17 Finish: Sweet 16

We’re going to assume that all three of Oregon’s top players are heading to the league, and hand the final spot in these rankings to another Pac-12 that will be searching for a way to reload. Steve Alford brings in another loaded recruiting class, but it doesn’t include a player anywhere near as transformative as Lonzo Ball was. Still, if Aaron Holiday chooses to stick around, the Bruins should be back in the tournament with a respectable seed.

The Next 10:

26. Oregon

27. Michigan

28. Virginia

29. TCU

30. Nevada

31. Creighton

32. South Carolina

33. Baylor

34. Wisconsin

35. SMU

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