A survey about a survey. Just looking for help picking topics for the next bonus survey. Which criteria-based senbatsu would be the most interesting for you?

Spring 2017 survey results analysis!

Spreadsheet (I'm not sure if it's easier to read but I think it's getting prettier! In certain places, anyway) https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5eW4wTlRMaE1DTU0 Perhaps easier to read here: http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?threads/seasonal-sakamichi-polls-spring-poll-closed-results-coming-soon.14672/page-7#post-1326979 Charts and photos of senbatsu: http://imgur.com/a/8M2zC Introduction

Survey series background. This survey was the 6th in a series of polls investigating the popularity of Sakamichi Series members among the international (specifically English speaking) fan community. In addition to measuring member popularity, this series also features some interesting questions about management styles and other aspects about the groups, many of which were requested by the community. The survey now spans over 1.5 years, including the entirety of Keyakizaka’s career.

Timing of the survey. This survey (Spring 2017) was conducted a little later than planned from late April through to early May, running for a total of two weeks. Since the last survey, Nogizaka have released their 17th single and Keyakizaka their 4th. Nogizaka’s 3rd generation have made their debut on Nogizaka Under Construction and their own show, Nogibingo 8 has begun. Hiragana have started making regular appearances on Keyaki tte, Kakenai? as well. Finally, we saw Watanabe Risa become Keyakizaka’s first exclusive model, a “scandal” featuring low tier popularity Nogizaka46 members Kawamura Mahiro and Wada Maaya, and far too many Nogizaka member photobooks to list.

Questions. The survey asked for your favourite members, who you want to see in centre, who you want to see in senbatsu, which two members you “ship”, which members you dislike, which group you prefer and which your oshimen is from, your predictions on future sales, and your opinions on a hypothetical 3rd Sakamichi group, Hirate Yurina’s centreship, Nogizaka choosing centres, and finally Nogizaka’s 3rd gen and Hiragana Keyaki in their respective senbatsu. Responses. This survey received 322 responses, making it the largest so far in the series. I was particularly interested in recruiting a large sample (rather than just my friends) so I could get a genuine feel for the international community and so that my own biases wouldn’t play too large a role. I’m happy many different people were willing to help spread the survey and find a diverse group of fans. Questions and Terminology All Favourites (AF). Choose all favourite members. Participants can select as many members as they like. Oshimen (OM). Choose number one favourite member (oshimen). Participants can only select one member. Centre Hopefuls(CH). Choose all members you would like to see take the centre position in the next few (I always suggest 3) singles. Overall (OA). A combination of the scores for AF and OM. Dislikes (DL). Choose all the members you “don’t really like”. Participants can choose as many as they like. This is the first time I asked for this.

Nogizaka popularity 

Goddesses As with every survey so far, Ikuta Erika and Nishino Nanase remain in 1st and 2nd overall. Both have relatively fallen in terms of their percentage scores particularly Nishino, who is currently the closest she has been to being overtaken by 3rd since last Spring, with only 7 points between her and Saito Asuka. It’s Asuka’s first time in the top 3 and in fact for the first few days she was leading the poll and it seemed like she might end in 1st. She is mainly held back by her OM score, falling from 3rd to 6th in OM with a significant points loss this round. With a small points loss in AF, Shiraishi Mai fell one place to 3rd despite what appears to be booming popularity in Japan. Finally, ending the Goddess tier is Hori Miona. Hori had been engaging in what seemed like it would be an eternal struggle for 3rd place with Shiraishi but has remained at 5th and appears to have been replaced by Saito Asuka for this role. However, all is far from last. The points difference between Hori and Shiraishi is minimal, and Hori is still far ahead of the other members outside the tier. Demigoddesses and The Third Wind There is a large gap between Goddesses and Demigoddesses this round, partially responsible for this is the absence of Hashimoto Nanami (former 6th). The ranks were retroactively adjusted to account for Hashimoto’s absence (by reranking the group without her). Takayama Kazumi and Wakatsuki Yumi “remained” at 6th and 7th, with Takayama topping the Demi tier by a large margin. Despite a minor point drop Eto Misa managed to rise two places to 8th over taking former 8th and 9th Sakurai Reika and Ikoma Rina. 9th and 10th this round are new entries to the Demi tier. The “monster rookies” Yamashita Mizuki and Yoda Yuki. Yamashita almost doubled her score and jumped from 21st to 9th and Yoda came close to tripling hers, rising from 27th to 10th. Most of the 3rd gen have performed amazing this round, including Ozono Momoko (29th to 18th), Kubo Shiori (32rd to 19th), Iwamoto Renka (38th to 21st) and Ito Riria (37th to 23rd). While some 1st and 2nd gens made significant point gains, few could gain ranks, unable to push back against the third wind. Ito Marika (jumping from 20th to 17th, with her highest score yet) was the major exception, with Terada Ranze being the only member to gain a rank (up one to 15th). Nogizaka Senbatsu and Centre hopefuls This time the senbatsu selection was done a little different. Rather than choosing which senbatsu members to keep and which unders to promote it asked respondents to choose senbatsu members from each generation. Then two versions are made: (1) the top (average number of selected members) from the group regardless of what gen they’re from and (2) the top (average number of selected members from each generation’s question). The 2nd version is used if we want to take into consideration how many members fans want from each generation. This round you selected on average 18 members. Divided by gen that’s 11 first gens, 4 second gens and 3 third gens. Notable entries: Terada Ranze returns for her second senbatsu already, Watanabe makes her senbatsu debut and, even in version 1, Yamashita Mizuki enters senbatsu. In version 2, the additional entries are Ozono Momoko and Yoda Yuki, but Kubo Shiori is really close. Centre Hopefuls sees Ikuta Erika rank 1st for the 5th time in a row (I’ve only asked this question five times). As usual the gap between her and 2nd is very large, and widening. She is the only member to score above 35%, and is somewhere around 50% each round. Shiraishi Mai fell from 2nd for the first time ever, perhaps thanks to her return to (double) centre. She now sits at 4th behind Saito Asuka and Hori Miona. Hori has hovered between 3rd and 4th since the beginning but this was a big jump for Saito, who ranked 7th in Winter. She made a similar jump last Spring to 3rd, she then made her centre debut, are fans hoping for a return? The 3rd gens did surprisingly well in this question, too, with “ace” Yamashita Mizuki ranking 9th with 13% of respondents selecting her. Nogizaka Dislikes This time I added dislikes, risking a bit of controversy. I wasn’t sure myself if it would be worth the potential fallout, but looking at the results I wish I started doing it sooner. Not that I’m happy to see dislikes, but they made me curious. I wish I had asked this question before so I could see the dislikes as a trend, and know if x (scandal, etc.) increased the number of dislikes. To see these trends, I’m going to continue asking this question. It will always be optional, though (as all questions are) and I’ll make sure it stands out (like it does now) in the results. Matsumura Sayuri got the most dislikes in Nogizaka with 44, but only ranked 4th for likes as a percentage of overall (all favourites + oshimen votes). She was followed by Ikoma Rina (40 votes, 7th by percentage) and Akimoto Manatsu (38, 8th in %). Ranks 4~6 were the top 3 for percentage: Wada Maaya, 1st for percentage with dislikes equalling 135% of her overall points; Kawamura Mahiro, 3rd for percentage with 83%; and Kawago Hina, 2nd for percentage with 95%. Both Wada and Kawamura were involved in a scandal recently, though Kawago was not. Yoda Yuki was the least disliked Nogizaka member both by votes (tie with Terada Ranze) and percentage. For percentage Terada and Ikuta Erika were close behind in 2nd and 3rd. One of the charts shows overall scores with dislikes taken into consideration. There were a lot of major differences, including one plummet down 14 ranks.

Keyakizaka popularity 

Goddesses Hirate Yurina keeps the #1 position in overall, this is the 4th survey she topped out of 6. This puts her in 1st every survey since the group’s debut excluding Autumn where she lost to Nagahama Neru by less than one point. Hirate lost points in both AF and OM yet she remains on top of each by a decent margin. Nagahama returned to 2nd after a brief drop to 4th in the last survey, with 2nd place in OM and 3rd in AF. Sugai Yuuka beat Nagahama for 2nd in AF but her low OM (fell to 6th from 2nd in winter) kept her behind overall. The Power Six Rather than separate these between Goddess and Demis I wanted to highlight the amazing competition between the members who ranked. In order of final rank these are: Shida Manaka, Imaizumi Yui, Watanabe Risa, Moriya Akane, Kobayashi Yui and Watanabe Rika. I first noticed about halfway through the polling period that these 6 members were within only one or two votes of each other even though they had so many (around 75 each, at the time). This near-tie continued for a very long time before they eventually began separating near the end. Watanabe Rika and Moriya’s high OM scores compensated for their low AF scores, and Imaizumi and Kobayashi’s decent AF scores did the same for their low OM scores. In terms of changes over the winter poll, the only standout result was Kobayashi, who made a huge point gain and went up a whole league of popularity, reaching a new record score, more than twice her score last spring. Other notable changes and Hiragana members Kanji Keyaki didn’t see many big changes with the major exception of Habu Mizuho who jumped back from 21st to 16th a large rise in score, her largest since last Spring, and also Harada Aoi who managed to reduce some of her huge drop last round (24th), now returning to 21st. Hiragana members had a few more major changes. Saito Kyoko replaced Kakizaki Memi as New-Hiragana’s highest ranking member at 18th. They actually swapped ranks with Kakizaki (now 23rd overall) taking Saito’s previous position as 4th in New-Hiragana. Kato Shiho and Sasaki Mirei were tied for 2nd last round but now Kato has gained the advantage pushing Sasaki back to 3rd. Keyakizaka Senbatsu Copied from Nogizaka – This time the senbatsu selection was done a little different. Rather than choosing which senbatsu members to keep and which unders to promote it asked respondents to choose senbatsu members from each team. Then two versions are made: (1) the top (average number of selected members) from the group regardless of what team they’re from and (2) the top (average number of selected members from each team’s question). The 2nd version is used if we want to take into consideration how many members fans want from each team. The respondents really showed how much they want all Kanjis to be in the next single. All Kanji-only members ranked before all Hiragana members (including Hiragana-Kanji kennin member Nagahama Neru). Next was Nagahama who ranked ahead of all Hiragana-only members. To be honest, this is probably because a number of fans forgot Nagahama is a Hiragana member and chose “none” without checking. But, in my defence, she is officially a Hiragana member first, with her kennin in Kanji. In any case, it would be unethical to change the results based on what I call mistakes so I must stick with the answers I have. As for the different versions of the results, using method 1 result with 18 members, all from Kanji Keyaki. Compared with the usual senbatsu, Ishimori Nijika, Ozeki Rika and Nagahama Neru are out. Using method 2, users chose 16 Kanji Keyaki members and 3 Hiragana Keyaki members, totalling in 19 (though both were only a few votes away from rounding down to 15 and 2). Method 2 sees Oda Nana and Saito Fuyuka removed from senbatsu, replaced with Nagahama Neru, Kato Shiho and Saito Kyoko. Centre Hopefuls Hirate Yurina ranked 1st in CH for the 2nd time. I wasn’t sure if she would rise or fall as the number of songs she centres rises but indeed her score rose slightly. Imaizumi Yui managed to stay in 2nd though her score continues to drop, with increasing speed. I expected this as she is being moved further from the centre and has recently entered hiatus to take care of her health. Nagahama Neru fell slightly no longer tying for 2nd but only a few points behind in 3rd. The most impressive rise was the new model, Watanabe Risa moving from 8th to 5th, swapping with Shida Manaka who went from 5th to 8th. Ironically, rank-wise, Hiragana members performed much better in CH than the senbatsu question. Kato Shiho jumped from 28th to 11th, becoming the highest ranking new Hiragana member, with Kakizaki Memi moving up one to 12th and Sasaki Mirei making her own big jump, from 30th to 16th. Keyakizaka Dislikes Copied from Nogizaka – This time I added dislikes, risking a bit of controversy. I wasn’t sure myself if it would be worth the potential fallout, but looking at the results I wish I started doing it sooner. Not that I’m happy to see dislikes, but they made me curious. I wish I had asked this question before so I could see the dislikes as a trend, and know if x (scandal, etc.) increased the number of dislikes. To see these trends, I’m going to continue asking this question. It will always be optional, though (as all questions are) and I’ll make sure it stands out (like it does now) in the results. Ishimori Nijika received the most dislikes in Keyakizaka, and also ranked 2nd for most dislikes as a percentage of overall votes (AF+OM), with 51%. I’m not sure what exactly brought this about, one reason why I wish I did dislikes before to see if this happened suddenly/recently or if it was always a trend. Ozeki Rika came next for votes and 3rd for percentage an Iguchi Mao 3rd for votes and 1st for percentage (by a lot: her dislikes were 83% the size of her overall score). These are a little more predictable, as I often see people complaining about their personalities. Nagahama Neru came 4th, the highest ranking popular member. I was expecting more for Saito Fuyuka, to be honest, after some controversy about her comments about not filling Imaizumi Yui’s absence from a music TV performance which were perceived by some online as being insensitive toward Hiragana members, but she only ranked 8th (5th by percentage). The least disliked member by both votes and percentage was Sugai Yuuka. For percentage, she was followed by Kobayashi Yui, who also tied for 2nd least votes with 4 Hiragana members. One of the charts shows overall scores with dislikes taken into consideration. There were a few big differences, including Nagahama Neru falling from 2nd to 4th, and Kobayashi Yui rising from 8th to 6th.

Miscellaneous

Next single sales

I asked what respondents thought the weekly sales figures would be for the next release of each groups. Based on 276 answers, the average fan thought Nogizaka’s 18th single would sell 923k copies in its first week, up 48k over Influencer. The most common answer was 900k with 53 votes. With 272 responses, Keyaki’s 5th single averaged at 728k, up 95k over Fukyouwaon. The most common answer for Keyakizaka was 700k with 71 votes. If the predictions turned out to be accurate and the predicted growth continued, Nogizaka would reach 1 million in one week for their 20th single (Keyaki’s 7th), Keyakizaka would reach it on their 8th (Nogi’s 21st) and Keyakizaka would eventually overtake Nogizaka on their 10th/23rd singles (respective). Nogizaka Centre and New Gens I asked how Nogizaka’s management should choose centres. This probably reflects Keyakizaka-only fans’ opinions on how Keyaki should choose their centre if they do ever change it as Keyakizaka-only fans didn’t answer this one less than Keyaki questions. The idea of choosing based on concept or to match a song was the most popular by far, and was the only option accepted by more than 50% of responses. Rotating to make many members popular, and giving it to young members were the next most popular and shared a common thread in that they were both strategies for making members popular as a way of investing in the group’s future. The unpopular options were giving the centre to whoever is most popular, giving it to the most talented member, or having a way for fans to directly select the centre. It could be said these are similar in that they seem to be about rewarding members rather than building the future and perhaps that idea isn’t popular. I also asked if the respondents felt members from Nogizaka’s 3rd gen should enter senbatsu or not. I assigned values to the “yes” options (1), “soon” options (2) and “no” options (3), and used these to calculate an average response of 1.9, indicating “soon” (i.e. not yet) but leaning slightly toward “yes”. The most common answer was indeed “soon”, with the most common “yes” answer/reasoning being that some are ready and the most common “no” response/reasoning was that the 2nd gens need to all make their senbatsu debuts first. Hiragana Keyaki in Senbatsu Because I predicted they might be a bit more controversial (in a good way – a good source of discussion) the Hiragana in senbatsu and Hirate’s centre position questions had more complex questions. Respondents were asked whether they agree or not with 7 statements regarding new Hiragana members being included in Keyakizaka’s senbatsu. The content was based on discussions I often see in the international community. To summarise the results briefly: More than any other question respondents were against the idea of Hiragana members never being included in senbatsu. However, despite the results swinging toward “disagree”, many still agreed with the idea of all Kanji members always being included, and it is difficult to imagine the number of senbatsu members being increased to more than 21. The most agreed with statement (while still close to even) was that Hiragana need to wait until all the Kanji members have experienced being positioned in the first row (even though including new Hiragana members and featuring the remaining three Kanji members in the front row aren’t mutually exclusive, there appears to be a symbolic issue here). Indeed, in accordance with this result and the results seen in the 5th single senbatsu selection earlier, respondents on average chose to not include Hiragana in the 5th single. Also, despite a majority feeling Kanji reaching the first row is important enough to have Hiragana members wait for, respondents generally disagreed that Hiragana members should have the same chance if they eventually enter senbatsu. A slight majority feel that they have been waiting long enough for the chance as one year has passed since their entry and only a small number of responses felt no one in Hiragana is ready for senbatsu. Hirate Yurina’s centre position This question was divided into three parts. The first part asked when respondents thought Keyakizaka should change centre for the first time. Results were almost split between changing for the 5th (40.8%) and 6th (40.1%) singles. Keeping Hirate for both but changing sometime next year was far less popular (12.5%) and keeping Hirate until she graduates was even less popular (6.6%). The next two parts were more enlightening. I asked why people think Keyaki should change centre and the same for why not. It was the first time I included a question like that in a survey, usually I look around for opinions and then add those opinions as options. This method took a lot longer to analyse and some might disagree with the categories I broke the responses down to but I tried to represent the results as accurately as I could. There were many more responders for why Keyakizaka should change centre. Out of a total of 156 responders, 60 said they felt Hirate should take a break/is under too much pressure. 51 said changing centre would make things more interesting, or that the perma-centre is boring, or worried about it becoming boring. 48 said other members should also get promotion which I distinguished from 30 who said there’s too much focus on Hirate and the group needs more popular members (similarly 8 said Keyakizaka needs back up centres, someone who can take over Hirate is unable to perform). Other responses included worries about Hirate gaining antis or straining relations with the other members. Of the 96 responses, most of the arguments listed were about why Hirate is suited for the position. The most popular of these was a rather broad category I titled “Techi fanaticism” (35 votes). These included general comments such as “Techi is the undisputed CENTRE”, “it feels like Techi was born to be centre”, and so on. I distinguished them from people who mentioned her “aura” (15 votes), her skill (10) and her popularity (7). Other than comments on Hirate herself, 11 didn’t believe there was any member capable of taking over at this point, 10 argued that by keeping Hirate in centre they can establish a stronger presence with the general public. Other responses were waiting for things like the front row rotation (7), or were satisfied with the way things are and took a “don’t fix what isn’t broken” approach (7 specifically about Hirate, 6 who like stability in general). "Shipping" Another new question was asking respondents to submit their favourite pairs, the members they “ship”. This question was skipped a lot and I got some negative feedback, so I probably won’t be doing it again, but it was an interesting experience. For Nogizaka, the most popular pair was Sakurai Reika x Wakatsuki Yumi (49 points) followed by Shiraishi Mai x Matsumura Sayuri (21) with points dropping quite low after that. For Keyakizaka there was a bit more variation. Shida Manaka x Watanabe Risa (49) came first followed by the captain pair Sugai Yuuka x Moriya Akane (30 points), Hirate Yurina x Nagahama Neru (27) and the more recently featured Nagasawa Nanako x Watanabe Rika (21). For Nogizaka the most shipped member was Shiraishi Mai (55) followed by Wakatsuki Yumi (53) and Sakurai Reika (50), though the members shipped with the most members were Ikuta Erika (12) and Nishino Nanase (11). For Keyakizaka the most shipped members were Watanabe Risa (73) and Shida Manaka (66), with Watanabe Risa and Hirate Yurina tied for being shipped with most members (9 each). Fan alignment Almost every survey I ask respondents which group they are a fan of on a scale of 1-to-7 where 1 is Nogizaka purist and 7 is Keyakizaka purists. This one was almost exactly even. On average the 316 respondents to this question chose 3.99. So basically, even (4), with the smallest Nogizaka leanings. Meanwhile for their overall (well, Sakamichi) oshimen, 42.5% of respondents chose their Nogizaka oshimen, 30.6% chose their Keyakizaka oshimen and 26.9% couldn’t decide between the two. I broke down the results to the miscellaneous questions by fan alignment (the 1-to-7 rating) to see if there are any significant differences between primarily Nogizaka fans and primarily Keyakizaka fans. Of course, the Sakamichi oshimen was very clear cut. Almost everyone chose the group they were closest aligned to. Sales predictions also showed bias. On average people predicted higher sales for the group they are aligned with than the overall average. One peculiar exception was the ‘3’ group (leaning Nogi) made some of the highest Keyakizaka predictions and one of the lowest Nogizaka predictions. Nogizaka-leaning fans were inclined to choose earlier responses for when Keyakizaka should change centre than Keyakizaka- leaning fans, though among Nogizaka fans the closer they were to Keyakizaka the earlier they chose (‘3’ was the earliest at 1.5, exactly between the 5th and 6th singles). Nogizaka fans were also much more likely to want to see Hiragana in senbatsu soon, supporting Hiragana’s debuts across the whole section. The reverse was also true, though to a smaller extent, Keyakizaka leaning fans were also more interested in seeing Nogizaka’s 3rd gen in Nogizaka’s senbatsu now or soon, compared to Nogizaka fans, particularly Nogizaka purists. In choosing centres, Keyakizaka fans stood out in overwhelmingly voting for choosing centres based on concept/to match a song, an option which was also popular with Nogizaka fans, but the other popular options, rotation and investing in younger members, were more competitive.

Sakamichi Series Spring Popularity Poll

I didn’t post here because I figured everyone who follows me on tumblr found me from some other place I usually post, but maybe not. For those who don’t know, I run popularity polls for Sakamichi members once every season. This will be the 6th survey and the first to include “shipping” and dislikes. There’s a few other quirky questions and it should fun to take as that’s at least half the point of doing it.

Here is the survey: https://goo.gl/forms/sBCmgHsiXTACbsJc2

The survey will be open until midnight on Tuesday 9th of May (JST). Please give it a shot and share with your friends if you think they would be interested.

This is probably the best place to follow the surveys. It comes with background info and an index of results displays. http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?threads/seasonal-sakamichi-polls-spring-poll-open-until-17-05-09.14672/

Winter poll analysis - Part 1 (extras only)

Winter 2016/17 poll Analysis (part 1) I wasn't planning on releasing these as the first part of the analysis but since Nogizaka are announcing their new senbatsu this week I rushed it ahead of the other pieces. They're all the parts that pertain to future senbatsu, including building Senbatsu, Centre hopefuls, and Predictions for 2017. These will receive some changes as the rest of the analysis is completed and published. Future Senbatsu Respondents were asked to make their own senbatsu. They were asked which members should stay and which should be added. With the option to choose none for each of the senbatsu members, unders/hiragana and, in Nogizaka’s case, new members. Asking “which senbatsu members should stay” is more difficult and time consuming for respondents (sorry for that) but it helps keep the scores consistent with the other questions and keeps the polls positive rather than negative. Senbatsu were formed 3 ways. The first is a pure popularity contest, the second and third take into account how much rotation the respondents asked for by analysing how many “unders” the average respondent choose to add, etc. 1st: the n number of members who received the most votes. Where n is the senbatsu size of the previous single (19 for Nogi or 21 for Keyaki). 2nd: for each group (senbatsu, unders, new members) find the average number of members chosen n1 n2 and n3. Add the highest scoring n1 of senbatsu members, and so-on. Answers of “none” are kept, adding zeroes to the total, reducing the averages for each group. 3rd: the same as the 2nd method, but removing “none”s to decrease the totals and increase the averages, just to see the results.

Nogizaka 17th – simple senbatsu 1. Ikuta Erika (228) 2. Nishino Nanase (225) 3. Shiraishi Mai (219) 4. Saito Asuka (205) 5. Sakurai Reika (203) 6. Eto Misa (196) 7. Wakatsuki Yumi (194) 8. Hori Miona (190) 9. Takayama Kazumi (189) 10. Ikoma Rina (172) 11. Akimoto Manatsu (168) 12. Terada Ranze (167) 13. Nakamoto Himeka (154) 14. Matsumura Sayuri (154) 15. Hoshino Minami (152) 16. Inoue Sayuri (129) 17. Ito Marika (113) 18. Kitano Hinako (113) 19. Watanabe Miria (94) There’s not much change here. Shinuchi Mai is the only drop, excluding Hashimoto Nanami, and Terada Ranze and Watanabe Miria are added in their place. This method does not take into account how many members were hoped for in the new senbatsu, and it is unlikely the actual 17th senbatsu will have 19 members. Nogizaka 17th – complex senbatsu 1. Ikuta Erika (228) 2. Nishino Nanase (225) 3. Shiraishi Mai (219) 4. Saito Asuka (205) 5. Sakurai Reika (203) 6. Eto Misa (196) 7. Wakatsuki Yumi (194) 8. Hori Miona (190) 9. Takayama Kazumi (189) 10. Ikoma Rina (172) 11. Akimoto Manatsu (168) 12. Terada Ranze (167) 13. Nakamoto Himeka (154) 14. Watanabe Miria (94) 15. Higuchi Hina (81) 16. Kawamura Mahiro (68) 17. Yamashita Mizuki (63) The responses had an average of 12 members kept from senbatsu, 4 from unders and one the 3rd gens, resulting in this senbatsu. If answers of “none” were removed, there would be an average of 2 members from the 3rd generation and Ozono Momoko (61) would take the 18th spot. The other groups would not be notably affected. Keyakizaka 4th – simple senbatsu 1. Hirate Yurina (195) 2. Imaizumi Yui (193) 3. Sugai Yuuka (187) 4. Watanabe Risa (187) 5. Shida Manaka (184) 6. Watanabe Rika (183) 7. Moriya Akane (177) 8. Nagahama Neru (177) 9. Kobayashi Yui (175) 10. Suzumoto Miyu (167) 11. Koike Minami (165) 12. Uemura Rina (152) 13. Nagasawa Nanako (144) 14. Habu Mizuho (144) 15. Yonetani Nanami (144) 16. Satou Shiori (140) 17. Harada Aoi (128) 18. Ozeki Rika (121) 19. Ishimori Nijika (117) 20. Oda Nana (117) 21. Saito Fuyuka (112) This senbatsu is made of the top 21 members (emulating the senbatsu size of the previous single) and features zero changes. But the respondents did show, including “none” votes, respondents wanted one member from Keyakizaka added, thus: Keyakizaka 4th – complex senbatsu 1. Hirate Yurina (195) 2. Imaizumi Yui (193) 3. Sugai Yuuka (187) 4. Watanabe Risa (187) 5. Shida Manaka (184) 6. Watanabe Rika (183) 7. Moriya Akane (177) 8. Nagahama Neru (177) 9. Kobayashi Yui (175) 10. Suzumoto Miyu (167) 11. Koike Minami (165) 12. Uemura Rina (152) 13. Nagasawa Nanako (144) 14. Habu Mizuho (144) 15. Yonetani Nanami (144) 16. Kakizaki Memi (69) This includes the top 15 senbatsu members (the average amount chosen) and the top Hiragana member (by average votes with nones, included, the score was just 5 votes away from rounding up to 2). Keyakizaka 4th – Complex senbatsu without nones 1. Hirate Yurina (195) 2. Imaizumi Yui (193) 3. Sugai Yuuka (187) 4. Watanabe Risa (187) 5. Shida Manaka (184) 6. Watanabe Rika (183) 7. Moriya Akane (177) 8. Nagahama Neru (177) 9. Kobayashi Yui (175) 10. Suzumoto Miyu (167) 11. Koike Minami (165) 12. Uemura Rina (152) 13. Nagasawa Nanako (144) 14. Habu Mizuho (144) 15. Yonetani Nanami (144) 16. Satou Shiori (140) 17. Kakizaki Memi (69) 18. Kato Shiho (51) 19. Saito Kyoko (47) “None” votes had a bigger effect on Keyaki’s senbatsu and removing them added one Kanji member and two Hiragana members. While this very undemocratically ignores the wishes of the fans who voted to add no Hiragana members to the next single’s senbatsu, I wanted to do it as a thought exercise, mostly because Keyaki’s senbatsu was so small with them. Centre According to the votes above, Ikuta Erika and Hirate Yurina are the main centre choices. As they are the most popular members, this should surprise no one. But this question didn’t ask about who should be the centre, and how votes change when that is brought up is a very interesting aspect of the CH question. Generally, the responses do match well with popularity, but they’re far from 1:1. Who fans would like to see centre a single in 2017 (so could be 3 or more centres): Nogizaka Ikuta Erika took first, by far. With 56.6% of fans giving her a vote, that’s enough to justify two solo centres. Shiraishi Mai (3rd) got 33.8%, Hori Miona (3rd) 26.1%, Nishino Nanase (4th) 25.4% and Eto Misa (5th) 23.5%. Despite competing for first in the popularity questions, Nishino loses points here likely due to having the 2nd most centre songs in Nogizaka, though her scores have been rising as she hasn’t taken the role for over a year now. Saito Asuka (18.4%, ties for 6th with Sakurai Reika) also has less points than her popularity otherwise suggests, likely due to being the only member remaining in the group for the 17th single onward who centred a single last year. Other notable scores include 8th through 10th: Takayama Kazumi, Ikoma Rina and Wakatsuki Yumi. Despite never being in senbatsu Terada Ranze got votes from 11% of respondents, managing 11th place, and all 3rd gens got at least one vote, with 13.8% of respondents giving at least one vote to a 3rd gen. Out of these Yamashita Mizuki’s airdrop has the most support with 5.1%. Keyakizaka Hirate Yurina is a clear first, but not as clear as her popularity would suggest, with only 42.3% of respondents picking her. 2nd is Imaizumi Yui (34.6%), neck-and-neck with Nagahama Neru (34.1%). The only real competitor with these three is Sugai Yuuka (30.9%). Shida Manaka and Kobayashi Yui tie for 5th with 24.4% followed closely by Moriya Akane with 24%. Even the highest ranking new Hiragana member, Kakizaki Memi (4.5%) doesn’t have much support for an airdrop. It’s still difficult to see Keyakizaka being centred by anyone but Hirate, but there is support for passing the baton to other popular members. Predictions Poll respondents believe we will see a 2017 like this: Nogizaka Nogizaka singles will be centred by Ikuta Erika (62.1%), Nishino Nanase (56.1%) and Shiraishi Mai (54.4%). Possibly also Saito Asuka (28.3%) and Hori Miona (21.6%). Nogizaka will reach 1,035,000 in Oricon sales (using mathematical weighting. With just the median answer it is between 950k and 1m). Yamashita Mizuki (42.2%) Ozono Momoko (41%) and Yoda Yuki (32.3%) will be promoted. Kubo Shiori (23.15%) and Ito Riria (19.1%) also have good chances but they rank after “none” (30.3%). 2 (2.4) members will graduate, most likely to be Shiraishi Mai (42.2%), Eto Misa (30.6%) and Shinuchi Mai (24.8%). Following 'none' (16.3%) include Kawamura Mahiro (13.2%), Matsumura Sayuri (11.6%) and Nojo Ami (10.9%). The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Nogizaka: 1.11 maintain/improve music quality 0.4 member has solo single/album debut 0.67 mainstream hit 1 a new centre 0.33 a new drama 0.17 a new variety show 0.93 a new contracted model 1.1 a new member gets a first photobook (other than Saito Asuka) 0.47 a new album 0.86 another 46-hours TV 0.44 a scandal free year 0.88 a Tokyo Dome performance 1.43 a return to Kouhaku -0.03 a 3rd gen centre airdrop -1.25 4th gen auditions Keyakizaka Hirate Yurina will centre again (72.7%). Imaizumi Yui (42.3%) and Nagahama Neru (42%) may centre but it’s unlikely for anyone else, except maybe Sugai Yuuka (24.5%). Keyakizaka will reach 620,000 in Oricon sales (median: 550-600k) Kakizaki Memi (47.8%) will be promoted this year (in some way). Kato Shiho (32.3%), Saito Kyoko (25.4%) are also seen as likely to be pushed but failed to outscore ‘none’ (32.8%). 0 (0.42) members will graduate this year but if any do, it would be Sato Shiori (7.2%) or Ishimori Nijika (5.3%). No others received notable scores. The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Keyakizaka: 1.28 maintain/improve music quality -0.02 member has solo single/album debut 0.86 another mainstream hit 0.62 a new centre 0.57 a new drama 0.58 a new variety show 0.81 first contracted model 0.72 first photobook (group or solo) 0.08 first album 0.51 a scandal free year 0.87 a tour 0.98 a return to Kouhaku -0.4 a Hiragana centre other than Neru -0.98 new auditions Comments I personally think we're underestimating both groups' sales records but I'm not certain. Scores were very low for promoting Hiraganas but that can't really be blamed as we don't know what promoting them means, yet. I'm not expecting graduations from Keyaki but by the end of their second year 4 Nogizaka members graduated (Iwase Yumiko, Ando Mikumo, Kashiwa Yukina and Miyazawa Seira) so I'm not all that hopeful we'll get through a second year without even one. Regarding the predictions given a numerical value: Keyaki has more hopes for a new drama and variety show. By a big margin. I can see drama, as TokuDare was far better than Bemars (though more time has passed since Bemars). I'm not so certain about variety shows though. Nogizaka has more confidence for new photobooks than Keyaki for any (including a group one). I can understand why, as Nogizaka has been pumping out PB like clockwork recently. However, I am expecting a Keyakizaka photobook this year. Nogi had one in their second year. And their average age was 18.5. Keyaki's will be 19.5 if they follow the same time scale (next October). Neither is hopeful about a new album. I guess that's because Toumei na Iro (Nogi's first) took so long to release. However, if they use the same schedule as Sorezore no Isu, we could get a new Nogi album 4 singles (summer) or 72 weeks (October) after their 2nd album. And there's no reason to believe Keyaki will stick to Nogi's album release schedule. That said, I'm not ready to put money on either. (Maybe a little on Nogi) Finally, the scandal-free year predictions were so low! Where is your faith in your idols?! :P

Sakamichi poll

I wasn’t going to post this here because I’m pretty sure everyone who follows me on Tumblr does so because they saw me post a link on FB, S48 or Twitter, but I figured why not.

In case you didn’t know, I run polls on the Sakamichi groups primarily about member popularity. If you came here from any of the above places you’ve probably already seen, but my current poll is accepting responses until this Sunday (after Keyakitte, Kakenai airs).

If Sakamichi and polls both sound like things you enjoy, check out the poll here. I try to make them fun and I try to get you to make some hard decisions. You’ve been warned ;)

The details of the polling schedule, purpose, and history, are pretty well laid out here: http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?threads/seasonal-sakamichi-polls-winter-2016-poll-accepting-responses-until-sunday-10th-after-keyakake.14672/page-5#post-1260931