#Hurricane Humberto (2019)
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Wikipedia article of the day is Hurricane Humberto (2019). Check it out: https://ift.tt/32KazvO
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The Wikipedia article of the day for September 17, 2021 is Hurricane Humberto (2019).
Hurricane Humberto was a large and powerful tropical cyclone that caused extensive wind damage in the British Overseas Territory of Bermuda during September 2019. It was the eighth named storm and third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Humberto formed on September 13, then paralleled the eastern coastline of Florida until September 16, when it turned sharply northeastward and became a hurricane. It reached peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane on September 18. After its center passed within 65 miles (100 km) of Bermuda on September 19, the storm transitioned the next day to a potent extratropical cyclone. Rip currents killed one person in Florida and another in North Carolina. In Bermuda, peak surface winds of around 110 mph (180 km/h), with higher gusts, caused widespread damage to trees, roofs, crops, and power lines. About 600 buildings had roof damage, and L.F. Wade International Airport and the Bermuda Weather Service campus suffered property damage.
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Hurricane Humberto 2019: Bermuda braces for Category 3 storm today - latest, path, track, updates CBS News
Flooding expected in Texas: Live updates CNN
Category 3 Hurricane Humberto set to make close pass off Bermuda as busy Atlantic season continues Fox News
Longview fire deploys water rescue team to aid with Tropical Storm Imelda KLTV
Tropics remain active with 3 named systems, 2 areas to watch WDSU New Orleans
View full coverage on Google News
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In Focus: Oil to $100
Almost a year ago I advised investors to avoid this trade. My warning came during Wall Street's celebration of Warren Buffett's deal to purchase Dominion Energy's (D) natural gas and transmission assets. Wall Street was happy to see a deal taking place during the pandemic and also ecstatic that Buffett was spending some of the $36 billion sitting on Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK-A) balance sheet at the time.
Several months before my advice and Buffett's purchase, oil prices had turned negative making me question the future of oil. Others however only saw really cheap oil prices. At the time of my advice to avoid the oil trade the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) was trading for just under $30 per share, a year prior, in July 2019 it was trading for ~$93 per share. Investors who ignored me and invested in USO are up more than 60% after taking advantage of cheap oil prices in 2020. That's a very nice win for a 12 month hold.
My instinct to avoid oil trades wasn't because I disliked oil or oil companies, it's because I saw alternative energy stock prices rising. I also saw electric car manufacturer Tesla (TSLA) growing in popularity, and several new electric vehicle companies ready to break into the market. I also expected the work-from-home phase to continue for the foreseeable future, prompting less demand for gas.
Increasing Oil Prices
In 2021 gasoline producers in the United States have wisened up, they no longer drill all day and stockpile oil all night. Instead, they've taken a wait and see approach by watching the national demand for gas and oil and waiting to drill. This has translated into higher prices at the pump for consumers and a higher price per barrel of oil for investors, because there's no longer an oversupply of oil and gas.
This time last year Crude Oil WTI (CL=F) was trading between $40 and $41 per barrel. Oil supplies were high and demand was low with many parts of the U.S. and the world still in lockdown. Now, crude oil is trading at $74.63 per barrel as of this writing and supplies are dwindling as demand ramps up.
The question for investors now is can oil hit $100 per barrel again? Analysts at Bank of America seem to think so. Analysts for BofA believe oil prices could hit $100 per barrel by mid 2022. Crude oil WTI hasn't seen $100 a barrel since July of 2014.
Bank of America believes that the work-from-home trend is also a work-from-car trend, and that people who are working from home also have errands to run, and then there's the pent up demand for travel. Both cases create an increase in demand for oil.
The post pandemic reopening has seen Americans as well as others around the world take road trips and flock to the airports for much needed getaways and reconnection with family and friends. This need to get away has caused gas prices to jump from $2.19 per gallon a year ago to $3.22 per gallon for the week ending July 5, 2021 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
For investors playing the markets for the $100 barrel of oil there are a lot of balls in the air that they need to keep an eye on like OPEC+ and Saudia Arabia.
OPEC's proposal to add 400,000 barrels per day to the oil supply through the end of this year was rebuffed by the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is seeking an updated production quota for itself, and isn't willing to agree to an OPEC increase without securing a favorable production increase of its own. Assuming all OPEC+ players stay in line with the current agreement, global oil supplies could remain below demand, keeping oil prices high.
Last year, OPEC and Russia failed to come to an agreement on a production cut, which was intended to level out inventories created by the shrinking demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. When Russia refused to cut production Saudi Arabia flooded the markets with cheap oil. Saudi Arabia's move last year displayed that OPEC members are willing to take matters into their own hands if necessary.
Investors also have to keep an eye on the weather. In the summer of 2007, Hurricane Humberto caused refineries in the Port Arthur, Texas region to shut down which created supply issues that sent oil to over $80 a barrel, a 31% increase from where it started the year in 2007.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 13 to 20 named storms and three to five hurricanes in 2021. So far we've seen five tropical storms according to the Palm Beach Post.
A major tropical storm or hurricane could add to the oil supply issues and push oil prices to the triple digits once again. Not that I'm advocating for a hurricane or even triple digit oil prices, but the reality is, with a bit of bad luck, we could get back to the $100 per barrel price soon.
What's in the way of the $100 Target
There's the coronavirus, the Delta variant has been another headache for some countries in addition to the headache already created by the original strain of the coronavirus. Delayed re-openings and more lockdowns could impact global oil demand. While the United States is on its way to a full reopening, places like the U.K. and Australia are still having to lockdown to contain the spread of the Delta variant.
Another round of major lockdowns could bring us back to where we were in 2020 with a large supply and little demand for gas and oil.
Going back to the OPEC / UAE issue, former U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette says we could see a collapse in oil prices from current levels if countries were to go off and "do their own thing, or do their own production."
Brouillette, did also state that oil could easily hit the $100 per barrel mark or even higher in the aftermath of the failed OPEC+ talks.
While oil investors would love to see another 30% plus gains in oil prices this year, the $100 barrel of oil comes with some downside for oil producers. At $100 a barrel, governments could be motivated to increase their investments into electric cars and alternative energy. Higher gas prices could force traditional combustion engine car drivers to start shopping electric.
Being a long term investor my instinct is still to avoid the oil trade. I don't see American refiners maintaining a wait and see approach for a sustained period of time. I believe their instincts will kick in and they'll start pumping out oil and in turn create more supply than demand. I also think after the initial wave of what I call reopening travel - travel to make up for not traveling in 2020 - has subsided, oil will find its way back to around $50 - $60 per barrel.
I'm still on the train of thought that alternative energy is the future, maybe not this year, or the end of next year, but it is the future. I have a fear of being stuck in an oil trade when the first functional electric plane rolls out or being in an oil trade on the day EVs outsell gas powered cars. For those reasons and reasons similar to those I will miss out on oil's possible run to $100.
#oil#OilStocks#Stocks#Investing#Investments#WallStreet#StockMarket#Oil Market#Commodities#Money#Investment Education#Financial Education#Tesla#WarrenBuffett#OPEC#saudi aramco
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These two satellite images do not make me feel good:
A peppering of tropical systems dots the globe. (NOAA/NHC/RAMMB)
We're watching 11 systems across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific basins. Six are now named storms. (Illustration by Matthew Cappucci with data from NOAA/NHC/RAMMB)
Some of them have names, some are yet infants. The named ones are Humberto, Imelda and Jerry in the Atlantic, and then Kiko, Lorena and Mario in the Pacific. The others are named 10% (one of them), 20% (two of them), 30% (one of them) and 40% (two of them). Sounds like people hanging around at a tailgate party.
Excerpt from this Washington Post story:
Even for the peak of hurricane season, this is a little extreme.
So what on earth is going on? September. September is happening. We are at the peak of hurricane season, and evidently all the oceans under the auspices of the National Hurricane Center got the memo. As one National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake summed it up, “I give.”
“This is uncommon even for the peak of hurricane season,” Blake tweeted.
Part of the increase in action may be thanks to a convectively coupled Kelvin wave approaching from the west. These large-scale overturning circulations drift eastward over the tropical Atlantic with time. They feature sinking air on their east flanks, partially squashing tropical growth. But broad lifting on their backsides (to the west) can dramatically boost hurricane development. That may have fostered the wild flurry of tropical activity now plaguing the Pacific — and could help the Atlantic “rage” beginning in the next week to two.
Buckle up. We are not done yet.
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https://ift.tt/eA8V8JTropical Storm Humberto forms east of battered Bahamas Fox News
A strengthening tropical storm has set its sights on the Dorian-battered Bahamas as it churns its way westward, brings with it sustained 40 mph winds.
View full coverage on Google News
source https://www.foxnews.com/world/tropical-storm-humberto-bahamas-hurricane-dorian
http://primalgists.blogspot.com/2019/09/tropical-storm-humberto-forms-east-of.html
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i fucking s2g if we get our shit rocked by Hurricane Jerry im walking into the ocean and never coming back
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Wiktionary Daily Article 17th September 2021
Hurricane Humberto was a large and powerful tropical cyclone that caused extensive wind damage in the British Overseas Territory of Bermuda during September 2019. It was the eighth named storm and third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Humberto formed on September 13, then paralleled the eastern coastline of Florida until September 16, when it turned sharply northeastward and became a hurricane. It reached peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane on September 18. After its center passed within 65 miles (100 km) of Bermuda on September 19, the storm transitioned the next day to a potent extratropical cyclone. Rip currents killed one person in Florida and another in North Carolina. In Bermuda, peak surface winds of around 110 mph (180 km/h), with higher gusts, caused widespread damage to trees, roofs, crops, and power lines. About 600 buildings had roof damage, and L.F. Wade International Airport and the Bermuda Weather Service campus suffered property damage.
Read more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_%282019%29
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Which country suffered from Tropical storm Humberto on 14 Sep. 2019, that was already hammered by Hurricane Dorian two weeks ago?
Which country suffered from Tropical storm Humberto on 14 Sep. 2019, that was already hammered by Hurricane Dorian two weeks ago?
Which country suffered from Tropical storm Humberto on 14 Sep. 2019, that was already hammered by Hurricane Dorian two weeks ago?
A. USA
B. Canada
C. Bahamas
D. Cuba
(more…)
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Tropical Storm Jerry Becomes a Hurricane Just After Humberto Grazes Bermuda by BY AIMEE ORTIZ
Tropical Storm Jerry Becomes a Hurricane Just After Humberto Grazes Bermuda by BY AIMEE ORTIZ
By BY AIMEE ORTIZ
A tropical storm watch was issued Thursday for the Leeward Islands.
Published: September 20, 2019 at 12:04AM
from NYT Climate https://ift.tt/32T9Usc
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Tropical Storm Jerry Becomes a Hurricane Just After Humberto Grazes Bermuda
By BY AIMEE ORTIZ
A tropical storm watch was issued Thursday for the Leeward Islands.
Published: September 20, 2019 at 07:04AM
from NYT Climate https://ift.tt/32T9Usc
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Hurricane rips roofs, cuts power in Bermuda, but no deaths - Thu, 19 Sep 2019 PST
Hurricane Humberto blew off rooftops, toppled trees and knocked out power as it blew past the British Atlantic island of Bermuda. But officials said Thursday that the Category 3 storm caused no reported deaths.
Hurricane rips roofs, cuts power in Bermuda, but no deaths - Thu, 19 Sep 2019 PST
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Disney Magic's 2019 Westbound Transatlantic Cruise Altered to Avoid Hurricane Humberto
Disney Magic’s 2019 Westbound Transatlantic Cruise Altered to Avoid Hurricane Humberto
The Disney Magic is currently crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a 10-night Westbound Transatlantic cruise which left Dover on September 15th. Earlier today, passengers received an itinerary update from Commodore Tom as a result of Hurricane Humberto.
In order to stay a safe distance from the hurricane and provide a smoother sailing, the Disney Magic will sail south. As a result, the…
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Hurricane Lashes Bermuda as New Storm Aims at Mexico Resorts
By The Associated Press
Hurricane Humberto rushed past Bermuda, lashing the British Atlantic territory with powerful winds for hours before beginning to move away early Thursday, as new Hurricane Lorena swirled in the Pacific posing a threat to resorts on Mexico's southw...
Published: September 18, 2019 at 10:06PM
from NYT U.S. https://ift.tt/31CIKpa
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So.......maybe Alabama will get its tropical storm or hurricane that trump so wished on the state after all. Do we think trump will play weatherman again?
Excerpt from this Washington Post story:
The tropics have been relatively quiet for the past week, but they’re not going to stay that way for long. A tropical storm — which would be dubbed Humberto — is likely to form between the Bahamas and Florida’s east coast and could affect parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. In addition, an area much farther east in the tropical Atlantic also bears watching.
A disturbance over the central and southeastern Bahamas has become better organized but is a very challenging system to forecast. Its ragged, sloppy structure right now makes it difficult for computer models to project its future path.
We do know it’s favored to develop. In fact, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, and the Hurricane Center may begin issuing regular advisories later today.
The most immediate concern is that, according to the Hurricane Center, the disturbance will bring heavy rains (1 to 3 inches or so) and gusty winds in portions of the northwestern Bahamas that were hammered by Hurricane Dorian.
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