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squowka · 1 year

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World Cup semi-finals predictions: Chris Sutton predicts Argentina v Croatia and France v Morocco

Argentina and Morocco's fans have been the loudest at this World Cup but can they help their sides win their semi-finals against Croatia and France?

"I would like to see Argentina and Morocco get through, because of both teams' amazing support," BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton said.

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"Argentina fans drag their team through matches - it was a like a home game for them against the Netherlands in the last eight, and it will be the same against Croatia.

"With Morocco, I also think how it would be a great story for an African team to make it. Too often at this tournament, we disregard teams from outside Europe and South America, but Morocco have made people think differently.

"They would be my romantic choice to make the final, but I am less sure about their chances against France."

Messi, Mbappe, Modric & Morocco set to light up World Cup semi-finals France v Morocco semi-final to be shown live on BBC Sutton is predicting the outcome of every game in Qatar.

He picked the winner in two of the four quarter-finals - getting the exact score in Morocco's win over Portugal and France's victory against England - and five of the eight last-16 ties.

That was enough to maintain his 55% success rate in the tournament, after he chose the right outcome in 26 of the 48 group games.

Before the World Cup started, Sutton chose 12 of the 16 teams that progressed to the first knockout stage, including France, his pick to win the tournament, and England, who he correctly said would go as far as the last eight.

Semi-finals Score Sutton's prediction Tuesday, 13 Dec Argentina v Croatia x-x 1-0 Wednesday, 14 Dec France v Morocco x-x 2-1 Tuesday, 13 December Argentina v Croatia graphic Argentina v Croatia (Lusail Iconic Stadium, 19:00 GMT) I put my hands up here because I have written off Croatia numerous times throughout this tournament - and I don't mind saying I've got them badly wrong.

They are brilliantly organised and, at 37, Luka Modric is still so influential. They can keep the ball to control games and are extremely resilient.

True, they lack a cutting edge at times but they found a goal when it mattered against Brazil in their quarter-final and also appear happy to go the distance.

If this tie goes to penalties too, then no-one will fancy facing goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic from the spot after his heroics in the past two rounds.

So, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for Argentina, but I think it will help that they won't under-estimate Croatia on Tuesday, and will know what to expect.

Argentina are without both full-backs, Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna, through suspension after their yellow cards in what turned out to be a pretty crazy game with the Netherlands last time out.

When Lionel Messi put Argentina 2-0 up, it looked like they were through, but the Dutch responded with some brutally direct football to level and probably would have won it if they had continued playing that way in extra-time.

Who knows how this game will play out and I would say it is 50-50 in terms of who will win. But I haven't done too badly following my heart rather than my head at this tournament, so I am going to do it again and send Messi through to the final.

I always say Diego Maradona is the best footballer ever and he won the World Cup in 1986. Messi's amazing career could be labelled incomplete by some people unless he does the same but now he is two games away from achieving it - and I'd love to see it happen.

His pass for Argentina's first goal against the Dutch was phenomenal and shows he can still dictate little moments in games, even if he cannot do it for the entire 90 minutes like he used to.

They will need more of the same from him here and they also need to keep their heads, because they seem to play on the edge most of the time. Do that and they will get through.

Yes, this means I am writing off Croatia yet again - which probably means another shootout, which they will win.

Sutton's prediction: 1-0

Wednesday, 14 December France v Morocco graphic France v Morocco (Al Bayt Stadium, 19:00 GMT) Morocco's plan, to defend deep and spring out on the break, seems simple but it is not easy to execute it as well as they have done against some very accomplished teams.

The only goal they have conceded in five games in Qatar is an own goal against Canada in the group stage. They have also faced Croatia, Belgium, Spain and Portugal at this World Cup and none of them have found a way through.

My worry is that injuries and fatigue will catch up with them here. Romain Saiss was carried off against Portugal, while there have been doubts over the fitness of fellow defender Nayef Aguerd and key midfielder Sofyan Amrabat.

Morocco break with great pace and purpose when they counter-attack and I am sure they will get opportunities the same way in this game.

I don't see it working to such full effect this time, though, because they might be too stretched to hold out,

The best way to describe France is they find a way and that is what I am expecting to happen here too, with Olivier Giroud having another big say in the outcome.

France don't play dazzling football but they are good to watch because they have got so many eye-catching players, and they seem to perform in fits and starts rather than sustain a high level for long periods.

That was how they got through their quarter-final - they were just more ruthless than England when they got their chances.

It is that quality in attack that should make the difference in this game as well. I am backing France to score first and see it through.

Morocco will score, and they will rely on adrenaline as much as their quality, but I fear this will be a game too far for them.

I would love to be wrong, just because the African side have arguably been the best story of this World Cup, but this is probably where they say goodbye.

Sutton's prediction: 2-1

#world cup updates #qatar 2022 #world cup 2022 #argentina #lionel messi #marocco #mbappe psg #france

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ticketlift85 · 2 years

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Barclays Premiership Faq - How Does The English Football Premier League Work?

For the board and owners making it to the Champions League fantastic enough, however for fans, they wish to see medals. Wenger seems to be becoming obsolete in 2010. Whether this is since of his hands being tied by ownership or his signature complacency remains to be observed. Regardless, he continues in order to put together the same sides year after year, but though not always getting significance people to complete the job. Since losing the back four of the Invincibles, he's yet to find quality replacements to build upon. It has probably been his biggest failure. Without that core back line, they will only be grasping at straws.

It's been back on television for an efficient few years now, because both sports approach start off of a fabulous season, I've found football leaving me rather cold, whereas I'm impatient to watching some Football. So, why would I should you prefer a US import over the national sport on this page.? I fully applaud exactly how Arsene Wenger can take players of whom we know very little and all of them into megastars. But http://crongtv.com/ wonder if this policy has rather been forced on him because most of the money is tied up elsewhere. So who'll land the pot of gold of this Champions League this school year? Barca have added Thuram and Zambrotta from Italy, but they were surprisingly smacked 3-0 by their compatriots Sevilla from the Super Cup, the match between the Champions League and UEFA cup those who win. Barca displayed a surprising weakness in the middle of their defence and John Terry and his pals at Stamford Bridge are certain to have noted that. Best of the outsiders is the fast improving Lyon. When you're searching online for European premier league football shirts, you programs make sure first associated with that you may get any involving top matter. In other words, you will need an online service which do which what extra flab. This is all about looking for a solution to show your allegiance for your favourite football team. When you are in the pub watching a game or developing a party with friends, you can expect to want to demonstrate your new top. That's look the very in about the kind of football top that you might have requested. You can even get it custom designed so that no other person will have a similar exact head. Verdict: Roberto Mancini would probably lose his job before Wenger, however think this is able to only happen if yet they can be able flip around their results. I'd personally say to look for the January period to discover how they greatly by as well as. There was much speculation in the media when Dean was appointed to referee the sport. A week earlier, within a match between Burnley and Blackburn Rovers, he had awarded a problem against Burnley that has become widely criticised. Burnley manager Brian Laws went in so far as to call the decision to appoint Dean to referee the guy United vs Chelsea game as being "mad". Contrary to easy predicting the draw betting system, correct score betting can be a betting system that isn't easy to prognosticate. In order for prediction in order to become done correctly, both math and strategy must provide. The bettor should know the firsthand performance of the teams and analyze each one of the teams' longevity. Mathematical equations can be very helpful by calculating the possibility of goals scored by a team.

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blubberquark · 3 years

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E-Sports

Occasionally, you can read about a game adding or already having “e-sports features“ like tournaments or spectator mode, or about trying to “bootstrap an e-sports scene“ by hosting a tournament with a five- or low-six-figure dollar amount prize pool.

This is not how it works. You can’t turn any game into an e-sport by paying people to play it, or by adding features that enable players to run their own tournaments. E-sports are computer games as competitive spectator sports.

For this to work, you need:

Full-time competitive players

A large audience of passive viewers

A media industry/tournament circuit with sponsors, commentators, broadcasting channels, hosting and monetising professional matches

You cannot have #3 without the first two. You cannot have full-time professional players without #2 and #3. It all feeds into the other pieces.

Maybe, if you cannot afford to have a tournament circuit and full-time pro gamers, you can instead have something similar on a smaller scale:

A high-level hobbyist competitive scene

A small, but committed crowd of enthusiasts keeping the game alive

Enough interest for the enthusiasts to fund an annual tournament

The small-scale model seems to be how speed running and the fighting game community operate. The large-scale model is how StarCraft used to work, and how League of Legends, CS:GO and Overwatch work today.

Professional Competitive High-Level Play

E-sports depends on world-class players who can make a living playing your game at a world-class level. They are called “professional gamers”. They train for the game as their day job, probably with some cardio, gymnastics, and hand-eye coordination exercise mixed in. They have sponsors and trainers, which I will cover more in depth in point #3. For there to even be world-class players, the game has to reward high skill.

A competitive scene needs a a balanced, but competitive game. A competitive game with has skill measurement and a high skill ceiling.

E-sports pro gamers are playing the same game as regular players, but they are very good at it, so good that they dominate matches against average players, and even matches against good players. That’s what makes them world-class. If you could spectate just any game on the ladder, the e-sports scene would nor be special. If the outcomes of a match are heavily influenced by randomness, there can’t be a big difference between world-class players and people who just picked up the game. If the game provides high skill measurement at low levels, but runs into ceiling effects at high levels, for example if pro players frequently play a perfect game of computer golf, or a perfect game of computer bowling, there is no skill measurement at high levels, and high-level matches become boring.

An e-sports scene can only exist when the game is balanced for high-level play and has a long skill chain. I the game is discovered to have boring solutions, it must be patched.

How can you determine who is a “world-class“ player after the game launches? How can you be sure the pro-gamers are really world-class if they only play against other pro gamers? How do players ascend from competitive hobbyist to pro? An e-sports game needs a lively hobbyist competitive scene. Good matchmaking and a public ladder allow professional players to practice against random high-level players, hobbyist players to measure their skill against pro players, and everybody everywhere to know where the metagame is at. After all, what good is skill measurement if you never measure yourself?

An e-sports game needs a ranked ladder and good matchmaking.

The pro gamers will probably spend a significant amount of time each week training, sparring against team mates, practising specific moves, techniques, or strategies. This requires custom matches (ranked ladder matches are still good for raising team brand recognition on twitch though, in addition to getting a feel for the metagame). I heard that during the heyday of StarCraft II, some teams spent hours practising defence against cheese like 6-pool Zerg rush, a bunker rush, or a Zealot/Stalker all-in.

Of course, if you practice defence against bunker rushes for days only for bunkers to be nerfed on the day of a tournament, it’s all moot.

There must be a way for competitive players to practice in custom games against colleagues. Patches affecting balance or tournament play must be small and announced well in advance.

The Passive Watching Experience

The audience cares about the game, knows what’s going on and who is winning, and loosely follows the metagame and the goings-on in the e-sports scene, but not necessarily all the beef and player transfers.

The simplest, but not easiest, way to a large audience for an e-sport is to have a large player base. People who occasionally play the game at a hobbyist level are already familiar with the mechanics, and a little emotionally invested in the outcome of games. Even in some real-life spectator sports (like football), you expect almost all people in your audience to have played the game at some point in the past.

A large hobbyist player base also feeds into the smaller pool of more competitive players, and thus ultimately into the pro gamer scene.

All this is presupposing that the e-sport still resembles the game as most players know it. If the high-level matches look completely different from hobbyist ones, if different skills are important, and if it is difficult to know for a hobbyist player what is going on and who is winning, it is much more difficult to parley a hobbyist player base into an e-sports audience. In some Nintendo party games, like Mario Kart and Smash Bros, (but not Mario Party, which is only casual and does not have a competitive scene) most players are playing only very casually against friends, and in others, most players are only playing in single-player mode. They don’t care about winning or getting good at the game, so they are less likely to care about e-sports.

For a large player base, the game has to be easy to pick up, easy to understand, and still fun and competitive at the entry level. Being easy to pick up and understand also makes e-sports games easier to watch and understand passively.

Having multiple games modes can be a nice compromise, allowing casual players to play in a low-skill game mode while competitive players have a higher skill ceiling. This works best if the cards, units, weapons, or whatever your game has, and all mechanics and physics still follow the same rules, and only a few elements are swapped out. Playing with the same rules but different starting configuration and goal state is better than playing “easy mode” with a completely different balance. Casual observers can follow and appreciate e-sports matches if they know what’s going on. By changing the win condition, starting state, and introducing a couple of new mechanics, new game modes can mostly maintain the game mechanics while shifting the dynamics of a match. Keeping the dynamics but making the moment-to-moment gameplay less predictable for the casual observer is much more confusing.

For the viewers who are not playing the game at all, e-sports broadcasters must explain what’s going on, who is winning, and what the current metagame is.

In some games, the metagame is more important than in others. Card games like Hearthstone are difficult to understand for viewers who are not up-to-date on the metagame, even though the mechanics are easily explained, and the card-specific rules are written on the cards. Without knowledge about the current metagame (which decks are dominating the ladder, whether aggro, control, or combo decks rule, what kinds of tech cards/adjustments players can add to react to small shifts in the metagame) it is nearly impossible to make sense of what is happening. That is true even when the viewers see all the cards and know both decks in advance. Specifically, it is difficult to understand why a player is playing fast or slow, greedy or safe, defensive or aggressive, and also who is winning. The same goes for Magic - The Gathering. It’s nigh impossible to understand how a matchup between two decks works without knowing what other cards could be in there, but aren’t. This can ruin the experience for people who know the rules but play the game only very casually.

Other games may have clearer indicators of who is winning and what is going on, but even fighting games with health bars, RTS games with supply counters, and MOBA games with lanes whose battle lines you can see on the minimap won’t let you tell who is winning based on one factor alone. Such a game would be boring! In every competitive game, there should be a way to sacrifice hit points for better positioning (e.g. in Smash Bros or Virtua Fighter), or to fall back on a lane in exchange for gold, so there is never a “simple” metric to see who is winning. If there were such a metric, the first player who gains a small advantage by that metric would just snowball out of control and dominate the match.

In any case, passive spectators benefit from additional visual feedback, because while the players know which buttons were pressed, the audience does not. Passive watchers have much less information than active players. In the first-person view, it can be enough to just indicate whether something failed or succeeded, hit or missed. A fighting game player knows which button he pressed, and his opponent knows whether he blocked correctly or not. Nonetheless, the game should also communicate visually which type of action the players chose for the benefit of the audience.

Visual spectacle and clear legibility are sometimes at odds with each other, but visual spectacle can make watching a game more “fun“.

Having too clear an indication of who is winning can be a detriment, too. It’s good to have clear visual feedback, but not to have limited gameplay options. If the future trajectory of a match is set in stone as soon as one player establishes a clear lead, the game is no longer fun to watch from that point onwards. In games with perfect information, or with enough information, the losing player might simply resign instead of drawing out the match to its bitter conclusion, but in some games with fog of war, one player might be oblivious of his disadvantage, or he might go on and on looking for “outs“ while the audience already knows how everything will eventually play out.

This is just one way in which games can be boring to watch at higher levels of skill, even if the audience understands what is going on. There needs to be a certain flow of action, to keep viewers engaged and entertained. The game should get going without a long set-up phase, and should wind down without a drawn-out endgame. To keep viewers involved at all times, decisions throughout every phase of the match should influence the outcome.

Comebacks, reversals, pivoting to different strategies, risky plays with big pay-offs are all ways to introduce drama into the watching experience.

Fighting games are harder to read for the audience moment-to-moment, the matches are shorter, they can end abruptly, and they are difficult to get into. All this means they don’t make for as fun a watching experience compared to MOBAs, RTS games, or objective-based modes in first-person shooters.

Digression: Let’s Play and Variety Streaming

E-sports is not the only way to broadcast games for entertainment. Your YouTubers and variety streamers can make a living on games, but they don’t have to be world-class. People don’t watch them because they are good at the game, or sometimes not at all because of the game, but because of the streamer’s personality, the community, and the funny commentary. Playing the right game is a way for small twitch streamers to gain new viewers, but it’s not what keeps people around. Some streamers mainly stream the same single-player game every time, and are so good at it they have a streak of hundreds of games in hard mode. Even they retain their viewers because of their personality, not because they are the best at the game.

Of course, a variety streamer or Youtuber can also play competitive games like Chess, PUBG, or Rainbow Six: Siege. It’s played a different format though: Viewers see what the streamer sees, and a face-cam, and if the streamer is eliminated from a round of PUBG or Fall Guys, the streamer often does not spectate the rest of the round for the viewers find out who wins.

YouTubers of average gaming skill can even play tournaments of casual but competitive (in the sense that you play against each other) games against other YouTubers, or organise tournaments in more casual goofy games like Ultimate Chicken Horse, Duck Game, Mount Your Friends, Golf with Friends, or Rock of Ages and still draw in viewers. This is a common method of cross-promotion.

Variety streamers also play party games like Quiplash, Cards Against Humanity, or Mario Party as a backdrop for conversation with other streamers.

They sometimes play competitive games in a team with other streamers, but the necessity of coordinating within the squad in League of Legends, PUBG or CS:GO means more airtime will be dedicated to the actual game, and banter will suddenly have to make way for tactics.

Events and Broadcasting

E-sports events have legitimacy, teams, sponsors, brand recognition that draws an audience, and commentators.

E-sports broadcasters usually call the commentators their “talent“, not the players. The players or “athletes“ come and go, and they get sponsor money from elsewhere, but the commentators and moderators are hired by the broadcaster/event organiser. The commentators are usually both entertaining personalities and knowledgeable about the game. They fill dead air with background info about he players and their recent matches, explain what’s going on, crack jokes, or just do play-by-play commentary. Viewers are often more attached to commentators than to players. There are usually two commentators and a dedicated off-screen observer controlling the spectator camera, in addition to a referee spectating the game, and the players. Additional moderators and interviewers may be on the stage during an e-sports event. Sometimes experts (retired pro gamers) are brought in to analyse a replay in the pause between matches, like in real sports.

While variety streamers play both the role of “entertainer“ and player, this is split up between players and the commentators/moderators, so players can focus on winning and commentators can focus on filling dead air.

By “legitimacy” I mean this: Players in tournaments are supposed to the best of the best, and the organiser’s brand guarantees that viewers won’t see any old boring game, but a pro game with high stakes. If there is a random member of the public in the pool, you know he played his way through some preliminary rounds. I could host a LAN party, throw a Kernel Panic tournament, and declare the winner the 2021 world champion, but I would not have any legitimacy in the eyes of the player base. Large prize pools, a structured and well-regulated tournament, big-name players, and a blessing from the developers can bestow legitimacy.

Getting players, sponsors, broadcasters and an audience into a room takes a lot of money. E-sports sponsors are usually manufacturers or brands of higher-priced gaming hardware, like Alienware, Razer and ASUS ROG, or snack foods and energy drinks. The products are either used by the pro gamers, thematically connected to the game in some way, or used by the audience. Snack foods go well with watching e-sports, but less well with playing. You wouldn’t want to eat a packet of crisps and move your hands back and forth between the crisps and the keyboard and mouse...

With so much money invested and riding on the success of e-sports events, there is a lot of incentive to diversify and look for the next big thing, but also

Takeaway

When you read news about a developer or publisher “establishing a game as an e-sport“, it often means throwing money at a tournament and getting sponsors on board.

When you read about a developer “adding e-sports features“, it often means a ladder, tournaments, or spectator mode.

Of all the prerequisites established above, the most important to establish a game as an e-sport are:

balance

skill measurement/high skill ceiling

easy to learn

interesting to watch

fun to watch

A game like Fall Guys is popular and “fun to watch“, but not particularly interesting, the drama only works if you follow a single player all the way to the last round, not if you watch the action from high up. Fall Guys has a lot of randomness and a low skill ceiling.

Amazon once even hosted a casual game tournament in which variety streamers played mobile games against each other. The goal of that event was to sell their Fire (Android) tablets. This did not kick-start a competitive mobile gaming scene.

There were rumours of EA trying to “establish“ Star Wars: Battlefront II as an e-sport, by funding a large tournament, but the game was neither interesting nor fun to watch.

It is a fool’s errand to “add e-sports“ to a game, instead of trying to make a good game first, or at least one that is fun to watch.

#game development #game design #e-sports

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footballxwrites · 3 years

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A mason mount one where you are a footballer for chelsea and you play a chelsea women's vs men's team match. X

“Ready to see us win” you cocky boyfriend smirked, racing to his position on the pitch as you followed, rolling your eyes at his sarcasm, knowing he was chatting a load of bollocks and wasn’t at all certain his team had a guaranteed three points in the bag, “bring it on Mount...but you’ll be getting a forfeit and a half when we beat you a good 2-0” you winked back as he shrugged off your ‘threatening’ attempt.

“Forget your forfeit you don’t have to worry about thinking of one for me...we’ll easily beat yous just like the last two times we’ve came head to head” he laughed, giving you a quick peck on your head followed by a joked word of warning, “whatever you say lad” you smiled, leaning up to kiss him before reaching a hand to give a little ruffle of his perfectly gelled curls which he didn’t value as he shrugged off your touch with an annoyed groan, getting ready for the whistle.

————————————

“It was pure luck” he defended, not accepting defeat as you happily strolled alongside him in the pitch moments after the final whistle went, the women’s team obvs winning as you predicted and you sliding a nice little goal into the back of the net in the 90th minute to make it even better. “Absolute joke man” he sighed, whipping off his boots and throwing them to one side as you couldn’t resist Jumping on his back, wrapping your arms securely around his neck as you sang the champions chant, happy as Larry and leaving him unimpressed with your sly act.

“Good job it was only a friendly...I’ll still never let you live it down tho” you whispered into his ear before trailing a pattern of kisses down his neck as he tried to get you off him, your grip too firm for him to do anything about it. “Think I megged you twice too...if I remember correctly” you continued, Mase finally shaking you from his body and unraveling your arms from his waist, “yeah yeah whatever” he said with a disgusted tut as a forgotten something popped into your mind.

“Guess you’ll be getting that forfeit after then” you excitedly spoke, clapping your hands enthusiastically as his eyes went wide, “whattt- I swear we never said anything about a forfeit” he said, stroking his chin and trying to act unknowing to your words, deep down gutted he agreed to a daft forfeit for the loser, of course at the time thinking the game was gonna be breeze, if only he could go back in time 90 mins. “Oh we most certainly shook on a forfeit before leaving the house, so come on chop chop shove on your trainers...we’ve got some clothes shopping to do” you winked as his face dropped, dipping into a frown and furrowed eyebrows, shopping being his absolute nightmare thing to do, mainly because of how long you spend in each shop, “give me a smile darling, I can’t have a moody mason with me whilst I drag you around new look for an hour now can I?” you replied to his saddened facial expression, “fine but I don’t have to enjoy it” he huffed as you laughed, about to have the time of your life seeing him sulking over the daft lose for a while 🤍

#football #footballer #football blurb #footballer imagine #mason mount #chelsea fc

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multibetkenya · 5 years

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As a football enthusiast I have been fascinated with the concept of the sure bet prediction where there is an assumption that out there in the sports betting universe there is an algorithm, formula, methodology or way to guarantee a win on a sports bet especially in football or what is called soccer in America.

So the question I welcome you to analyse with me is whether there is a way to come up with a sure bet or a guaranteed win when it comes to sports betting in relation to football.

Firstly lets define what we mean by a sure bet,what does the word sure mean? according to dictionary.com there are multiple definitions for sure but the two that apply to this conversation are “confident, as of something expected:sure of success. ” and assured or certain beyond question:a sure victory. ” https://www.dictionary.com/browse/sure

What of bet? This is defined as a wager or a risk taken on an uncertain outcome or event.

Now that we have the definitions is there a possibility of wagering on a football sports event with an assurance of success? The answer to this is maybe and I will explain why

I will tackle this as with regards to wagers or bets placed on possible outcomes of football matches.There is definitely no certainty of a certain outcome when it comes to football due to such factors as injuries,red cards,player state of mind if affected by personal challenges and so on but there are definitely ways to increase your probability of correctly predicting the outcome of a football match.

The general masses believe that a sure bet is an impossibility or an extremely difficult aspect to come up with and I agree to extent academically but I disagree from experience.Kindly dont get me wrong am not suggesting that you can have a 100% success rate in sports betting but what am saying is that you can achieve a 90% success rate in sports betting and be profitable while at it.

HOW DO I COME UP WITH A SURE BET PREDICTION?

STEP 1:This is not a get quick rich skim

Like everything in life you will not get rich over night through sports betting. In order to have a positive yield while betting on football matches you need to invest a lot of time and energy to understand the main dynamics that provide an indication of the possible outcome of a matches.

This means you need to source for reliable sources of football statistics or historical data,invest time in scouring the internet for news related to the matches you are looking at,test and retest different methodologies until you find one that provides an acceptable success rate which is above 55%.

STEP 2:How to create a successful sure bet prediction methodology

Book makers provide 100+ markets for a single match and the most crucial aspect of sports betting is identifying three or four markets that you are comfortable with and that you can access enough data to aid you identify matches whose possible outcomes will fit into your preferred markets.Through my own experience what works for me is any market that has only two possible outcomes meaning probability wise i have a 50% chance of success.An example of this is Over 1.5 goals,Draw No Bet,double chance,BTTS. These markets are favourable as compared to such riskier markets as correct score and halftime/fulltime

STEP 3:Limit your greed,have a cap for your odds

I prefer multibets as compared to single bets for they give me acceptable odds but I limit my total odds to 10 odds or less and the reason for this is that with higher odds you are forced to take higher risks or consider more games which is risky as well.

What most forget is that you should look at odds in relevance to margins/profit so for example an odd of 1.25 provides a 25% margin/profit so hypothetically if you can manage to come up with a methodology that has a 80% success rate on 1.5 odds it means for every amount you spend you stand a chance at a 50% profit which is quite insane if you consider that the best performing hedge funds in the world have returns lower than 50% per year. If you place bets on a daily basis and you have an 80% success rate meaning you win 5/7 days it means you will be extremely profitable with a weekly margin/profit of 14% and with higher odds you end up making a larger margin as illustrated below:

DAY OF THE WEEK ODDS STAKE OUTCOME WINS MARGIN MONDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 TUESDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 WEDNESDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 THURSDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 FRIDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 SATURDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 SUNDAY 1.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 150.00 KES 700.00 KES 800.00 1.142857 DAY OF THE WEEK ODDS STAKE OUTCOME WINS MARGIN MONDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 250.00 TUESDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 250.00 WEDNESDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 THURSDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 FRIDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 250.00 SATURDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 250.00 SUNDAY 2.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 250.00 KES 700.00 KES 1,050.00 1.5 DAY OF THE WEEK ODDS STAKE OUTCOME WINS MARGIN MONDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 350.00 TUESDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 350.00 WEDNESDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 THURSDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 FRIDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 LOSS -KES 100.00 SATURDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 350.00 SUNDAY 3.5 KES 100.00 WIN KES 350.00 KES 700.00 KES 1,100.00 1.571429

STEP 4:Everything in life requires insurance

To ensure a higher rate of success I always recommend you create multibets that are hedged and am not talking about arbitrage. I personally research two possible markets for the same game that offer adequate odds so that when I create a multibet I am able to hedge without loosing out on odds.However the hedging should not be in the same market e.g dont hedge over 1.5 goals with under 1.5 goals,you can hedge over 1.5 goals with something like BTTS such that you are able to take advantage of such scores as 1:1 2:0 2:1 which are common scores in soccer or you can hedge it with a double chance such as Draw No Bet which caters for a 0:0 or 1:0 score and still allows your multibet to continue running

King Kong

#IFTTT #WordPress

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writers-clique · 5 years

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Heartless

This is a horror short story I wrote. It’s a bit inspired by the TV show You. If you like a bit of horror, stalker, creepiness or just enjoy reading short stories from time to time, this one’s for you. Happy reading >:)

Heartless

I have been waiting for five years to return it. The fist-sized box sitting neatly in the passenger seat next to me. Its intricate red bow matches the black leather of the container. I listen to the AC’s cacophonous rumble as I look at the endless road in front of me. Normally, I prefer to have silence during long journeys like these. I can ponder about life, the sheer cliché of how meaningless it is and how unimportant each person is, no matter what their mothers, teachers or other equally unimportant individuals have told them before. But alas, the scorching desert sun is too powerful for the little heart inside my box so I turn up the cold air and try to ignore it.

At this point, you may be wondering if you read that last line correctly or you may have missed that specific minor detail entirely, doesn’t matter. Jhona is the only one who has to see it, right there on his kitchen counter, in all its veiny glory. It will be splendid! Watching the color drain from his face the way Mia’s blood gushed onto the tiles. Oh, who’s Mia? She’s just the girl who stole my heart.

*********

Five years ago, a senior going into school for his last day—that’s when I met her. I was walking towards the main doors when they suddenly opened and hit me in the face.

“Oh my god! I’m so sorry! Is your nose alright?” she said, covering her mouth and trying to hide a smile.

“Uh, yes. At least I think so.” I felt a bit of blood drip down my nostril onto my lip. It tasted delicious.

“You’re bleeding! I’m really sorry! Let me help you with that.” She snatched the books from my hands and, for a brief second, I felt her skin upon mine. Warm and tanned against my cold and pale arm.

She insisted on walking me to class, even though she didn’t have to. And whilst we walked, we talked. She turned out to be quite brilliant in ways I didn’t think someone at our school could be. She was into old literature, but wasn’t too picky, listened to good music and looked quite good as well. I knew her soul was bound to be interesting. And so, that same night after graduation, I went online and searched for “Mia Darlington”. And a darling she was. The whole of her Instagram and Tumblr was open for anyone to look at. I mean, it was like I had struck a golden mine of disposable information, all just a swipe and a tap away. That’s where I learned about a party that would be happening to celebrate the fact that half of these morons managed to scrape up enough IB points for a diploma of some sort, while the rest of us would actually succeed to some degree in life (pun intended). It would happen in a fortnight at Braden’s parents’ lake house. The whole thing would last for two days. After that she’d be mine.

In the fortnight that followed, Mia and I got closer than ever, which of course she didn’t know. I followed her around from a distance. She had quite the schedule. Guitar lessons, fitness, drawing, meditating. She had it all. Her bedroom window was conveniently positioned towards the road so my view from a bush across the street was perfect. By the time the party happened, I knew her better than she knew herself.

It had been three hours, fifty two minutes, twenty seven seconds and counting since the start of the party and she still had not arrived. I was growing rather impatient and, dare I say, worried. I decided to strike up a conversation with one of those buffoons who knew her, that way when she finally appeared, I’d have a head start for a conversation. I saw one of the guys from her Instagram. He was peculiar, but simple, one of these football goons. And yet, there he was, staring into his punch cup, looking depressed and out of place. Peculiar. I strategically placed myself near the refills and soon enough he approached. He filled the glass up to the rim with Jagermeister. Pathetic.

“Rough night?” I asked, mimicking his movements.

“Ha,” he took a swig of his drink, “you couldn’t have said that better.”

“Oh, really? Why so?”

“What do you care man? Who are you?” he drunkenly yelled and stumbled forward.

This would be harder than previously imagined. “Look, I’m sympathising with you. This party sucks.”

“It wouldn’t suck if . . . if she was here.” He whispered that last part, but I was closer than his drunk mind let him know.

Just then, his phone rang. The picture was of Mia, one I hadn’t seen before which was once more peculiar. I had gathered pretty much every picture of her, down to the ones she was too small to remember. At this point, he started muttering things to himself, obviously in no state to speak to her. That’s when the dots connected and I decided to use this particular lamentable moment of his to my benefit.

“Hi, who’s this?” I picked up the phone. I decided to play dumb and let her fall for me, believing it was her choice.

“Umm, I could ask you the same thing. Where’s Judah?” She didn’t sound pleased and the fact she didn’t recognize my voice admittedly hurt me.

“He- he’s having a bit of a rough night. It’s Adgar speaking by the way.”

“Adgar? Oh, wait aren’t you that guy I smacked into two weeks ago? I didn’t know you were friends with Judah.”

“Well, you don’t know a lot of things about me.” I thought that was a good line, so I made my voice husky at the end. I imagine that’s what James Bond would do.

She laughed. “Yeah, I suppose you’re right.”

“So umm, how come you’re not at the party?

“How did you know I was going there?” Suspicion slipped into her voice.

Crap, think Adgar, think you idiot.

“Oh, well Judah’s been crying that you haven’t come all night, so I figured you were going to come originally.” I tried to inject a smile into my voice the way some people do. It worked.

“He has? Well, doesn’t matter. I’m almost there so since you’re taking care of him I trust he’ll be OK.” She sounded distant and didn’t even let me reply before she hung up. That annoyed me.

I looked back for Judah, except he wasn’t there. Great, now I had to babysit a drunk blockhead instead of preparing for Mia. The plan was to find him and then tie him up somewhere in the woods where he wouldn’t cause any trouble. Finding him turned out to be easy. All I had to do was go for a leak, and there he was lying on the bathroom floor in his vomit.

Now how would I get him out without causing involuntary attention? The answer came from a shout of “CHUG! CHUG! CHUG! CHUG!” downstairs. That’s right, his equally stupid drunk friends wouldn’t remember a thing either, and they were loyal to him, like a golden retriever to its owner. All I had to do was spin a little white lie about the “unimaginable awesomeness” of them pulling the “greatest trick” in party history - tying Judah to a tree whilst he’s unconscious. I mean, it was honestly laughable how easily they agreed. Good thing they were drunk.

It took three of them to carry him downstairs and into the forest. I mean, I didn’t even touched him. All of the evidence pointed to them. They were so wasted they didn’t notice me drifting back to the house, leaving them in the darkness.

By the time I came back, Mia was there. She was something to see. In her own world. Dancing along to whatever indie song they had put on, drink in one hand. She looked like she’d floated down straight from heaven. A beautiful gift just for me, all wrapped up in a tight red dress, beach curls slightly bobbing up and down.

Now the hardest part was approaching; I had to approach her. I decided to rip that bandaid straight off and just went for it. Confidence after all, is key.

“Hey, you’re the girl who smacked me in the face.” I tried the James Bond voice again.

“Hey, you’re the guy I smacked in the face.” She smiled.

Good, that’s good. Smiling is always a positive thing.

“Care for a refill?” I reached towards her cup.

“Yeah, sure.”

Like taking candy from a baby. People reading this, I’m going to give you a pro tip. Never. Ever. Give your glass to someone you don’t know at a party, bar or wherever. They may just put something funky in there. Sad thing really, she’ll never get to read this.

I had prepared an excuse just in case anyone was to give me trouble: “Oh she was just so tired, poor thing fell asleep.” But, as predicted, they were all too drunk and too self absorbed to notice. She was a bit heavy I must admit, heavier than I imagined. Of course, though, she fit perfectly into the trunk of my car. I was not staying for the remainder of this party and neither was she. What happened next was a two hour long, silence filled car ride in which every speed bump I hit I worried about her. I mean, I loved her. If she got even a single bruise, I swore not to forgive myself.

Once we had arrived home, I placed her in the basement where she would be staying until I knew that her love for me was eternal. I had already prepared the room: soundproof door, mattress, chains on the wall. I laid her down gently and put on her shackles, then I sat on a chair and waited. Waited for her to wake up and for our souls to connect, our love so powerful.

As you may have guessed already, that did not happen. What ended up happening was an intense conversation and double murder.

“Wh-where am I,” she muttered sitting up.

“You’re home,” I smiled. I wanted to reassure her.

“Home? I’m not home! You-you took me here! Why am I chained up? Somebody help, help!” She started screaming. Shaking. Tugging at the chains. Going rabid.

“Now, now. There’s no need for that. No one can hear you anyway.” The effect of my words didn’t convey what I wanted, as she didn’t calm down and become rational, but started throwing herself on the floor, sobbing and yelling harder than before. I decided to give her some time.

One day later, as predicted, she had calmed down. She was also starving and I used that to my advantage, as I did with many things. I brought her a plate of her favorite food - seafood paella - which I’d learned to make specifically for her. She took the plate and started gorging on the warm food. I found that curiously arousing.

“So you’re ready to talk like humans?” I tried a smile, but her cold stare disapproved.

“You’re no human! You’re an animal.” Rice grains fell out of her mouth as she yelled, and I couldn’t help but point out the irony by raising an eyebrow. Once more my humor was not appreciated.

“Let me go! What do you even want from me, you nutcase!?”

“I’m glad you asked me. See, Mia, darling, I love you, and I know that if you give me a chance, you’ll love me too.” I said that with what I thought was my most convincing and confident smile, and yet her eyes widened and her eyebrows formed an angry looking V on her usually beautiful face, turning it into something quite displeasing.

“I. Will. Never. Ever. Love. You!” She threw the plate at the wall, smashing it. The meal splattered on the ground.

“I don’t think I like your tone.”

“I don’t care what you like! I hate you! I only love Judah!”

“Silence! I will NOT let myself believe these lies you are utterring!”

“They’re not lies! I will never love you. Judah is the only person I’ve ever truly loved.”

There it was. The first murder. She plunged deep with her nails into my chest and stole my heart. Devoured it even! For the next several days, she tried everything to escape and I tried meaninglessly to make her mine, but she would not have it. And on top of that, her phone would not stop buzzing with messages from her family, friends and, irritably, Judah. I was losing hope as all she would talk about was Judah. That’s when I finally realized she had destroyed my heart, absolutely pulverized it. No more of that. An eye for an eye, a heart for a heart.

I think she knew the end was coming the moment I walked into the basement. The dark gloves probably gave my intentions away. I decided I didn’t wish to waste any more of my time. I advanced towards her, wordlessly. Silence was the way I liked to do these things. Just like a car ride, slow and enjoyable. She once again started one of her intense screaming sessions. A wailing, powerless shriek. Left on the front door of Mr. Death. At his mercy.

I smacked her into unconsciousness and dragged her towards the bathroom. No blood would be spilled in my basement. Once in the bathroom I decided on a barbaric sort of death for her, the way she killed my heart. I gently opened the toilet lid and placed her head on the seat. What followed was an intense upper body workout resulting in a broken toilet lid and smashed skull. I sprinkled the little bone fragments into the toilet bowl and flushed. I had decided on selling what was left of her on the dark web. Everything except her heart. You see I needed it. Heart transplants aren’t cheap and since she was the one who’d stolen mine it was only fair she gave one back.

So now that you’re all caught up, let’s go back to present times. I have recently met a girl, even better than Mia. She’s given me back my heart in ways I could never have imagined. We met a week ago. She dropped her purse and I gave it back to her. Her knight in shining armor. I love her. I no longer need Mia’s heart, but I know someone who does.

Coincidentally, once people knew Mia was not coming back, Judah fell into depression. Or at least that’s the theory. Supposedly, he got back from the party, but he didn’t really get back. He left poor innocent Judah behind. He was going to be a football player at some top university but now he spends his days drinking away whatever life is left inside of him and scaring the kids in our little old town.

So I’m giving him a present. Something he’ll cherish and remember forever.

I hope you appreciate this, Judah. I know how much you loved her with all your dying heart.

Love, Adgar.

#you #writing #horror #horror short story #short story #writing portfolio #portfolio #writersclique #writers clique #thriller #stalker #creepy

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walkonwalkonwithhopeinyourheart · 5 years

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Analysis of Klopp's time at Liverpool so far via /r/LiverpoolFC

Analysis of Klopp's time at Liverpool so far

The objectives of this post are:

Demonstrate the progression since Klopp's arrival;

Appreciate what Klopp has done for Liverpool Football Club;

Refute claims by rival fans and some LFC fans, which include:

Klopp is a checkbook manager who got to where he is by splashing cash;

Klopp is a failure because he hasn't won anything yet;

Comparisons will be made with:

Arsenal's current season with Unai Emery (Usually brought up by Arsenal fans)

The state of our domestic rivals during the same period of time (since 2016)

The reason I single out Arsenal here is not that I want to slate them. On the contrary, Arsenal is the only team in the top six other than ourselves that I don't dislike, partly because they were somewhat similar to us in that they are on a drought for the biggest trophies (league titles and Champions League trophies), they have questionable recruitment, they wear red and they didn't really upset me or cause me too much pain in my time as a football fan. For that reason I began to watch AFTV, partly for the banter material, but also to gain some thoughts on their perspectives as fans of another club. In the process, I have become more familiar with Arsenal than I am with other rivals.

[Main stuff starts here]

Klopp was appointed as the manager of LFC in October 2015, after a 1-1 draw at Everton in the 8th match of the PL season. Most of you would be familiar with what happened afterwards:

2015-16: 8th in the league, League Cup finalist, Europa League finalist.

2016-17: 4th in the league, League Cup semifinalist.

2017-18: 4th in the league, Champions League finalist.

2018-19: at the very least, 2nd in the league, Champions League quarterfinalist, both competition we are capable of winning as things stand.

To put things in perspective, these are the seasons immediately before Klopp's arrival (Rodgers in charge):

2014-15: 6th in the league, (8pt off 4th) Champions League Group Stage, Europa League R32, League Cup and FA Cup Semifinalist.

2013-14: 2nd in the league (2pt off 1st)

2012-13: 7th in the league (12 pt off 4th), Europa League R32.

To summarize, we would be in the Champions League group stages for a third season in a row next season after not qualifying for Champions league 6 out of the 7 seasons before 2017-18. We had two deep European runs in two seasons that we were in European competitions that ended in defeat in finals against stronger opposition and amid controversy (That is not to say we would definitely have won if the referees punished Seville for the three handballs in the box, and sent off Ramos for rugby tackles and elbows to the head, but things could be very different), while the previous European finals were in 2005 and 2007 under Rafa Benitez (a somewhat distant past). We lost a League Cup final in a shootout. Even if we would go on and have another trophyless season this year (BTW, the probability of that is around 50% according to 538's probabilities), we would have another serious title challenge (against arguably one of the best teams ever assembled) and another excellent European campaign.

We have reemerged as a massive power in English and European football under Klopp's guidance after years of mediocrity. We are now relevant in the Champions League discussions, people begin to put us in the category of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, and fans of these powerhouses treat us as a threat.

Now, I'll analyze season by season.

2015-16 season was pretty much a free pass for Klopp, as he was appointed midway through the season without time to buy his players and implement his tactics. Before his appointment, we sold our best player in Raheem Sterling, Gerrard moved on after contract expired; we bought players like Firmino and Benteke who were not properly utilized by Rodgers. He managed to work with the players he had and beat strong teams like Manchester United, Dortmund and Villareal over two legs, teams that didn't have overhauls and had played under the same manager/ style for several years. Apparently the board agreed and gave Klopp a six year contract after the defeat in Basel.

After the summer of 2016, Klopp had his first preseason and summer transfer window. At that point, I would say he began to build his own team.

Let's have a look at the (major) businesses we did (including winter window so that we have a summary of every season):

In: Grujic, 5.1M; Mane, 30M; Wijnaldum, 25M; Karius, 4.7M; Klavan, 4.2M; Matip, free. Total: 69M.

Out: Canos, 4.5M; Skrtel, 5.5M; Ibe, 15M; Allen, 13M; Smith, 6M; Benteke, 32M; Alberto, 6M; Ilori, 3.8M. Total: 85.8 M.

Net (spend): -16.8M.

We made a net profit of approximately 1/3 of Raheem Sterling, who left in 2015, after the 2016-17 season. Just a reminder, Klopp inherited a team that sold its best players and lost its leaders, a team that was only capable of finishing 6th-8th for around 6 years bar one season. BBC pundits had us finishing 6th (https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/37040156). Instead, we were unbeaten in the top six mini league; we had a realistic title shout until January when Mane went on international duty. Eventually we finished 4th despite injury to Mane later on. Players like Lallana and Firmino, regarded as flops from the Rodgers times, dramatically improved and became integral parts of the team. Coutinho, who was already a good player under Rodgers, became world-class after Klopp became manager.

Comparing to Arsenal's current season, Unai Emery inherited world class players (or at least, very good players) like Aubameyang, Lacazett, Ozil- even other often criticized players like Xhaka and Mustafi are big signings in the previous seasons and senior internationals for good national teams- and a team that has been consistently in the top four for a long time bar the last two seasons. In the summer of 2016, Arsenal finished their previous season as 2nd, while we were 8th. A quick look at transfermarkt.com told me that Arsenal had a net spend of around 95M prior to Emery's appointment from 2016-2018. On top of that, they spent about 65M (net) in the summer of 2018. They did well to keep Man United and Chelsea behind them and currently sit at 4th, but it's hardly 'Emery working wonders'. Or perhaps it is, but then Klopp would have performed a miracle in his first full season.

Move on to the summer of 2017, we had a eventful transfer window with the Van Dijk and Coutinho sagas, both of which concluded in January with huge transfers. Our market activities are: (Unit: GBP)

In: Salah, 43.9M; Solanke, 4M; Robertson, 10M; Oxlade-Chamberlain, 35M; Van Dijk, 75M. Total: 167.9M

Out: Wisdom, 4.5M; Lucas, 5M; Stewart, 8M; Sakho, 26M; Coutinho, 142M. Total: 185.5M

Net: -17.6M.

BBC pundits predicted correctly that we would finish 4th (https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/40856491). That was also an acknowledgement of how well Klopp has done in his first full season. Basically, in Klopp's first two full seasons, instead of splashing the cash, we made a profit from transfer activities of roughly 35M. We could pay Roma double the amount we did for Salah and we would still almost break even. In the mean time, Klopp has turned this team into a consistent top four team, not to mention the small matter of reaching the Champions League Final, which non of the big spenders in England managed to do for quite a few years. We basically had the top four place assured by February, leading Chelsea by 10pt at one stage, but the league matches became distractions to our Champions League ambitions in April and May. We were poor towards the end of the season, but still managed 4th, Chelsea 5pt behind us.

Now we arrive in the present. This season, we have been spending big in the market, and as a result, we are seriously challenging the league title instead of fighting for 4th. In back to back seasons, we have been doing well in Champions League. Football fans generally think of Liverpool as a major power again. We are now ranked as one of the best teams in the world. How much money did we spend to achieve that?

In: Keita, 52.8M; Fabinho, 43.7M; Shaqiri, 13.8M; Alisson, 65M. Total: 175M

Out: Can, free; Ings, 20M; Ward, 12.5M; Klavan, 2M; Solanke, 19M. Total: 53.5M

Net: 121.5M.

Grand total of Klopp's transfer activities: net spend of around 87.1M.

Klopp turned the 2015 Liverpool, a mediocre team shall I say, into one of the best in the world with a net spend of 87M. Smart business is a big factor, but that is also credited to Klopp. Many of us, myself included, had doubts over some of those signings above. Rival fans were laughing at the signings we made. Mane 'the annual Southampton purchase', Salah 'the Chelsea reject', Van Dijk was apparently the biggest waste of money of all time, etc. Every one of them has at the very least lived up to his price tag, with the possible exception of Naby Keita, and he has plenty of time since he has been here for less than a year. Many players have 'overperformed' under Klopp, Coutinho a prime example, as he was nowhere near as effective at Barcelona. Sadio Mane, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino wouldn't be better than they are now if they were in another system with another manager.

Comparing with the other English clubs' trajectories since summer 2016:

Man City: Net spend 360M, from a title challenger to one of the best teams in the world.

Man Utd: Net spend 290M, from an underperforming top four team to an underperforming title challenger/top four team.

Chelsea: Net spend 200M, from a occasional title challenger and a fairly consistent top four team to a top four challenger.

Arsenal: Net spend 150M, from a consistent top four team to a top four challenger.

Tottenham: Net spend 40M, from a consistent top four team to a consistent top four team.

Numbers are from transfermarkt.com and converted to GBP for our rivals, while the data for Liverpool is from lfchistory.net which include all the potential add-on fees for both incoming and outgoing transfers. I would have used transfermarkt for Liverpool too, (the net spend is around 100M according to them) but I found that lfchistroy's records are consistent with what we saw in news articles, and I don't bother to look for similar websites for other clubs (I don't know if mcfchistory.net exists, for example). There might be some bias, but not deviating from the actual numbers a lot.

We have had the greatest improvement among England's top teams with a relatively modest spending (not taking into account that the only season that we have a positive net spend happened after the huge inflation of the market after the Neymar deal). We were a Europa League quality team before Klopp took over, we were miles behind the likes of Manchester City who already had Aguero, Kompany, David Silva and De Bruyne etc in the team. We were behind Tottenham, who practically had the same established team as they do now. We were behind Manchester United, as they could always afford the best player available in the market. Arsenal might not have the biggest star in the league, but they always finished in the top four and usually had a good title chance until around Feb/Mar. Chelsea were sometimes inconsistent, but they won the league not long ago and had players like Eden Hazard. Now, we have overtaken most of them and closed the gap on Man City despite their huge spending. That's the main progression of this club under Klopp.

Oh, and we have been playing exciting attacking football since his arrival. Fans can actually enjoy watching football matches again. We are showing great team spirit, and the vibe around the club is very positive. Add these to his achievement list as well.

Has he won anything yet? No. But he deserves to have won at least one by now in my opinion. He has come close on three occasions already, and would at the very least, came close again this season. Remember our starting point was very different from Pep Guardiola's Man City, or Jose Mourinho's Man Utd, or Pochettino's Spurs. Even Emery's Arsenal has a better foundation than we did.

That's not to say I'll be happy with 2nd this season, nor to make early excuses. It would be incredibly frustrating if we couldn't win the league when we were 7pt up at the midpoint of the season. I voiced my disappointment and pessimism in those recent draws in the league. But finishing 2nd this year wouldn't make Klopp a failure or a fraud, if you consider that Man City probably still have a much better overall squad than we do, and the point I have been trying to make in the post, which is that Klopp has done enough for the club to be described as a success so far.

Hopefully, we could win at least one of those two major trophies at the end, and then this post would be rendered absolutely redundant.

*Edit: arguments were made that we actually spent a lot of money, it's just that we managed to sell our players for good prices. Well, if you sell a player, you replace him. If you sell expensive players, you need to buy expensive players as well to keep yourself at that level.

Here is the other teams' expenditures in the past seasons for comparison:

Man City- 520M

Man Utd- 400M

Chelsea- 510M

Arsenal- 300M

Tottenham- 180M

(Source- transfermarkt)

Liverpool- 410M, lfchistory

You can decide for yourself what this means. IMO, this only shows that Klopp deserves more credit. Imagine you are John Henry, you said to Klopp: take these 400M and give me a world class football team. Klopp did it and returned more than 300M back to you. Would you think that the fact that Klopp managed to improve this team drastically while keeping most of that fund still available is actually very impressive?

Submitted March 27, 2019 at 09:35PM by egyptiankingsalah via reddit https://ift.tt/2HWvRPN

#IFTTT #reddit #liverpoolfc #liverpool fc #lfc #ynwa

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footballanalysis1 · 2 years

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Football Betting: Learn the tricks and trades to win maximum odds

Football has a rich and long history. There have been many great football players who have contributed to this wonderful sport. The sport is played internationally on a large scale. There is also a darker side to this sport. It is also known as football betting. You heard it correctly. People place bets on football teams to win handsome rewards. There can also be mistakes.

Football betting can be both challenging and exciting. You can't depict your future at all. You never know what your future holds. It's not a blind game. It relies on algorithms and predictions. Before placing a bet, an individual must calculate several factors before selecting a team to invest. This includes analysis of both the player's and team performance. Sometimes the evaluation can also be influenced by previous matches.

It is not an easy task to bet on football. The algorithm required extreme dedication and expertise on the part of the observer. To find a viable option, several algorithms are examined. Sometimes, it is possible to not reach the desired result. You can't be complacent. It is at your risk. The ability to make millions from an alarm investment in a football team with high probability of flare is a benefit that many people have gained.

You may have heard of the term football betting odds if you are just starting to play football betting. To get the best understanding of the system and win the most odds, a betting guide is a great resource. The betting odds don't necessarily mean the winning team. It is about the popularity of the team in the eyes of the public. The popularity of a team and the support it receives from the public are directly related to how many odds they have.

You can find football betting predictions and tips. A team usually follows a set rules throughout a game. To organize the game in their favor, the football coach creates a game plan. The strategy is often repeated in most cases. An individual who analyzes the patterns of the football team is able to win the bet and turn it in his/her favor. This requires knowledge and experience in football and betting.

Parlay bets are an all or nothing proposition. The ticket will be canceled if one pick is wrong. While some sportsbooks may offer specials to help you get close, this is very rare.

You might consider "teasers" if you are interested in making football wagers using parlay tickets. These are parlay tickets that have additional points. You might be able to get the Packers at -3, instead of taking them at -10. The risk is reduced, so the payouts will be lower.

Football betting is fun and you can win big at the sportsbook. All season, I placed straight and parlays football bets. I look forward the NFL and NCAA football seasons.

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donaldbaby3 · 3 years

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Javier Chicharito Hernandez An Innovative New Star For Manchester United - Garments

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thefalse9 · 6 years

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World Cup 2018 Previews: Group B - Iran

Group B concludes with Iran, a team loaded with attacking options, but a team whose chances of progressing are unlikely, a glut of talent coming at an inopportune time.

Captain: Ashkan Dejagah Manager: Carlos Queiroz Nickname: Team Melli FIFA rank (as of April 12, 2018): 36

How They Qualified:

Hilariously enough? They may have had the smoothest route to the World Cup of any team in the tournament. They qualified first in their group, qualified direct to the tournament as top of their class, and finished qualification unbeaten. They didn’t concede a single goal until the last game of qualification and by then? They had already been qualified for about a month.

Biggest Strength:

Iran’s defense will get the headlines due to not allowing a single goal until the last game of qualification, but what distinguishes this team from the 2014 outfit that crashed out as one of the first teams eliminated is the array of attacking options they have. Winger Alireza Jahanbakhsh and strike partner, Sardar Azmoun would dribble their way into any Asian team, Mehdi Taremi is one of the top strikers in Asia but could be on the bench, and the same can be said for Karim Ansarifard, the joint top scorer in the Greek league. Besides Jahanbakhsh and Azmoun, none of those players are even guaranteed a starting spot going into the tournament.

Biggest Weakness:

Iran have been the highest-ranked Asian team for four years. While that sounds amazing, that theoretical superiority is about to be exposed in this tournament with a harsh dose of reality in the name of Spain, Portugal and Morocco. The team has strength in depth, match-winners and an excellent coach, but what it lacks is games against top-class international opposition. In short, this team ain’t faced nobody! While qualification was impressive, Iran were never challenged by their Asian counterparts. Friendlies scheduled in preparation for the World Cup may have been better than in the past, but the quality of opposition faced (Latvia, Uzbekistan and Sierra Leone) pales in comparison to the Belgium, Germany and Italy schedule regional rivals Saudi Arabia faced off against in the same run-up to the tournament.

Star Player(s):

Alireza Jahanbakhsh is the truth. The winger - yes, the winger - is the top scorer in the Dutch Eredivise, the top flight of the Dutch domestic leagues. With 18 goals and a double-digit assist total, the 24-year old is poised for a move to the bigger leagues of European football, with Italian giants, Napoli, tracking the youngster for a potential summer move.

Prediction:

I do not believe they’ll be advancing, but there are quite a few things at play here. If Iran manages to somehow steal a game against Morocco, they’ll have 3 points and be looking at a match with Portugal as the make-or-break event of their World Cup tournament. It just so happens that Carlos Quieroz was the architect for that Portugese team and knows better than anyone the tactics, the style and the attack he will face from Ronaldo and company. Could he steal a draw? That game is a big game to determine the direction this group goes if things break correctly, but I still do not see them advancing.

#iran #iranian national team #world cup 2018 #fifa

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walkonwalkonwithhopeinyourheart · 6 years

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Post-Match Day Thread: Chelsea 1 - 1 Liverpool via /r/LiverpoolFC

Post-Match Day Thread: Chelsea 1 - 1 Liverpool

I wasn't going to do this one because I thought I would miss most of the game. As it turns out I did get to see it all and I'm hungover enough that this is going to be a nice little distraction.

Chelsea 1 - 1 Liverpool

Player Ratings

Player WS SofaScore TAW This is Anfield Liverpool Echo Average Notes Alisson 7.1 7.3 7.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 Alexander-Arnold 6.7 6.9 7.0 5.0 7.0 6.5 Gomez 6.5 6.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.5 van Dijk 7.4 7.6 7.0 9.0 7.0 7.6 Robertson 6.3 6.7 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.4 Wijnaldum 6.1 6.5 8.0 6.5 8.0 7.0 Henderson 6.3 6.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 78' sub off Milner 6.5 7.4 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.6 86' sub off Salah 6.8 7.3 8.0 5.0 6.0 6.6 66' sub off Firmino 6.9 7.2 9.0 6.5 7.0 7.3 Mané 6.4 6.8 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.4 Starting XI avg 6.6 7.0 7.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 Shaqiri 6.4 6.5 - 7.0 6.0 6.5 66' sub on Keita 6.6 6.9 - 8.0 - 7.2 78' sub on Sturridge 7.1 7.4 10.0 9.0 10.0 8.7 86' sub on

I think this is the first time that a sub has been our man of the match, particularly where he only played about 5 minutes. Beyond that Alisson and van Dijk both had very good performances whilst Henderson is the lowest scorer.

Links Post-Match Thread - credit /u/hesaycisse/ Match Thread - credit /u/hesaycisse Pre-Match Thread - credit /u/hesaycisse

Shout out to /u/hesaycisse for making my life easier.

Title Race

As of time of writing Chelsea haven't played. I'll go back and update this when they have.

Pos Team GP Won Drawn Lost GF GA GD Points 1 Manchester City 7 6 1 0 21 3 18 19 2 Liverpool 7 6 1 0 15 3 12 19 3 Chelsea 7 5 2 0 15 5 10 17 4 Tottenham Hotspur 7 5 0 2 14 7 7 15 5 Arsenal 7 5 0 2 14 9 5 15 6 Watford 7 4 1 2 11 8 3 13

Christ do City score a lot of goals. 21 is tied-third for the most goals scored for the last 10 champions. That being said, they've played some absolute shite so far. We slip down to second for the first time this season but maintain that unbeaten record. A result against City and we go clear. Bring on next week.

On to the comparisons. The chart below displays the cumulative points totals over the four games:

https://i.imgur.com/5555ca9.png

No longer 100% perfect :( but we're still well ahead of the curve.

The next graph is for goals scored, with Leicester (15/16) in dark blue and Manchester City (17/18) in light blue being our lower and upper figures.

https://i.imgur.com/aveBDbB.png

We drop away from the average again but still no real problems. We've scored in every game so far and we're averaging more than a goal a game so that's all good.

The final graph is goals conceded. Manchester United are both used for comparisons, with 08/09 (upper) and 12/13 (lower) seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/0EHhtQO.png

Despite conceding we're still really good at defence.

I've filled out the spreadsheet a bit more so if you want to have a look it's below:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D7aM5g9Pqhnt2y58BdFUc4xTp3epreMhKMlpEVgQOdY/edit?usp=sharing

Goals Analysis

I'm changing up the format a little bit. Let me know if you like it, or have any other suggestions.

Hazard 25' 1-0 https://streamja.com/ZvQ6 https://i.imgur.com/QstZIri.jpg Chelsea win the ball back after we commit men forward on the left. Mané has pushed right up and has Wijnaldum supporting. Salah on the other side is also pushed quite high. This leaves a big space on our right. It's not an immediate concern, but it is where the problem comes from. https://i.imgur.com/PKyIBKu.png Luiz has a clear pass directly to Hazard who is unmarked. This is an issue. https://i.imgur.com/2U4by8P.png Trent goes to close Hazard down but doesn't get near enough to really affect anything. For me Salah should be charging back to cover the space that's left. https://i.imgur.com/QdU98WW.png Instead Salah actually stops. He should be able to see the danger here, there's a simple pass through the middle of the pitch and Hazard is making the run onto it. https://i.imgur.com/308S7QH.png Chelsea actually make an extra pass. Trent compounds his original error by bending his run towards the centre. I don't really understand what he's trying to do here - he originally looks like he's going to track Hazard (and i think Trent has the pace to beat him), but instead is... trying to block the pass? Covering the middle? I have no idea. It's a very strange decision. https://i.imgur.com/QCQCDU5.png I don't think there's really anything Gomez can do to stop Hazard's shot. Alisson is left in the worst possible position - Hazard could go high near post or go across him. That's why he doesn't really dive to his left. This is a goal that a very good team can score but we (Trent) certainly helped them.

Sturridge 89' 1-1 https://streamja.com/dkan https://i.imgur.com/aivCXWo.png Let's be honest, there's not much you can analyse about this absolute banger. However, I am kind of interested in how disciplined Chelsea's shape is. They're very much set up in their 4-3-3 (Moses is somewhere on the right wing) and we're having to change our shape to get through them. https://i.imgur.com/Yy9kJGi.png It's a stunning goal because there's literally nothing on. Kepa is central, tall, in a good position to save most shots. Sturridge's only option is to go for the top bin. It's an absolute perfect shot that loops over the keeper. What a goal.

Thoughts

Line Up

I predicted the team correctly! I think the midfield three is probably the best for keeping the bigger teams at arm's length. Wijnaldum in particular does such a good job of disrupting the opposition.

Sadio Mané and Mo Salah

I made a post in the match thread along similar lines, but I am really confused by Klopp's substitutions of Salah over Mané. Salah hasn't been scoring at the rates towards the end of last season but he's still very much involved in the attacking build up. Meanwhile, Mané has been sloppy going forward and for me is not doing enough. Yet, he's the one staying on in games, he's getting the League Cup games etc. It's strange to me.

How Important is This?

A point away at a top 3 rival (see what I did there) is always going to be important. Last season we were bad against the top six, particularly away from home, so it's pleasing to see that we've already gotten 4 points from two games. We need to back this result up with 3 points against City though.

Napoli

Back to the Champions League and what I think is a really intriguing encounter. Napoli aren't the classic Italian defensive team but, they are the pot 4 seed in our group (edit: nope, they're pot 2. Maybe I'm still a little drunk...) and we should be beating them. I can see a couple of changes for this one.

Alisson; Clyne, Gomez, Matip, Robertson; Milner, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Sturridge, Shaqiri

I can see one of the full backs being changed and I don't want to see Moreno ever again so Clyne comes in for Trent. Matip gives VVD the game off, though it could quite easily be Lovren if he's fit enough. Fabinho might be more suited to European football at this point, but a tricky away might be too far for him. Keita can replace either of Henderson or Milner. Shariqi and Sturridge come in for Firmino and one of Mané or Salah, and as mentioned above I think Mané's been getting away with one so far.

Our next fixture is against Napoli in the Champion's League. The match kicks off on the 3rd of October at 20:00PM(BST)/15:00PM(ET).

Submitted September 30, 2018 at 01:57PM by voliton via reddit https://ift.tt/2RcxuLh

#IFTTT #reddit #liverpoolfc #liverpool fc #lfc #ynwa

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