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thisdaynews · 4 years

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Who will win New Hampshire? 5 top state Democrats dish on the state of play

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Who will win New Hampshire? 5 top state Democrats dish on the state of play

Andrew Hosmer

Andrew Hosmer,the new mayor of Laconia, which voted for Barack Obama twice before backing Donald Trump in 2016.

Pete Buttigieg winning — that would surprise me just based on how far he has come in a year. There’s a realistic possibility, and it would be shocking given that it would mean he nudged out two sitting senators and a vice president. It isn’t impossible.

Melanie Levesque

Melanie Levesque,a political operative who recently became the first black person elected to the state Senate.

It would surprise me if an underdog won. At this point, it would be near-impossible for someone to beat Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders, given their campaign and field operation. The other surprising thing could be the number of voters who are unaffiliated with a party who take Democratic ballots in the open primary. That will go up significantly, and if not, that would be very surprising.

Lucas Meyer

Lucas Meyer,the 29-year-old chairman of the New Hampshire Young Democrats.

It would surprise the hell out of me if someone won the primary by 10 points.

Kathy Sullivan

Kathy Sullivan,a top Democratic Party official in the state for more than two decades who served as Hillary Clinton’s state co-chairwoman in 2008.

It will surprise me if Iowa and New Hampshire have the same winner. New Hampshire loves a comeback story, so you could have someone who finishes second or third in Iowa who comes in first here. And if someone drops out after Iowa, that could have a huge impact.

Jay Surdukowski

Jay Surdukowski,a liberal Democrat who led a local effort to draft Beto O’Rourke for president and is now running for a seat on the powerful Executive Council of New Hampshire.

Slow and steady Joe Biden beats local favorites Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. There seems to be a conventional wisdom that it will be Warren or Sanders in the blue ribbon spot. But New Hampshire’s independent-minded voters might hand it to the tried and tested statesman — especially if war clouds are on the horizon.

Who is a dark-horse candidate who could place in the top three, and how do they do it?

Hosmer:Let’s say Amy Klobuchar has a strong showing in Iowa, coming in third or fourth, then she gets the momentum coming here and it’s kind of a snowball effect. There’s also something about her that she is moderate and plain-spoken — that authenticity will resonate with voters here.

Levesque:Booker and Klobuchar are the ones to watch. They have been steadily increasing in the polls. They are differentiating themselves by showing their competency to lead and bring the country together, which will be key.

Meyer:Anyone who tells you they know who the top three candidates are going to be on Election Day is speculating wildly. Things can change so dramatically. But Klobuchar has had a lot of momentum heading into the final stretch.

Sullivan:If you assume Amy Klobuchar is not a dark horse, then I’d say Cory Booker. Although he has not popped in the polls, he has a lot of support from legislators and activists. He needs to turn that into a wider net of voters. I would also keep an eye on Deval Patrick and Michael Bennet.

Surdukowski:Amy Klobuchar. She will need a springboard with a strong finish in Iowa. But that said, she could make her own magic having assembled a compelling coalition of diverse backers and a practical message. Andrew Yang or Tulsi Gabbard could also pull it off if they can cobble together enough independent-minded and even libertarian-leaning voters.

Who is running the best campaign in New Hampshire and why?

Hosmer:Pete Buttigieg. Some of the indicators for me are the number of offices and staff on the ground. They’re quality staff — not just bodies. I’ve also been impressed by Klobuchar’s willingness to come out and help us local elected officials — they helped quite a bit in my campaign for mayor. I was really impressed by their organization and their desire to get involved in communities like Laconia.

Levesque:Warren, who has hired some of our best people very early and started a strong door-to-door campaign. She commands large crowds, articulates her vision well and takes selfies with anyone who wants one.

Meyer:Warren’s organization was smart enough to realize early on that helping to get people elected to local offices would make a difference for her when she needed their support. They stepped it up to help us, mobilizing her volunteers to do work on down-ballot races, and that is really important among local Democrats.

Sullivan:Elizabeth Warren. She has a large organization of staff and volunteers who have blanketed the state. They are not letting the ups-and-downs of polling distract them from their plan and have constantly sought to broaden their support, unlike Bernie Sanders, for example, who has not. She also has done a great job at retail, with her town halls and the selfie lines. She is the most approachable of the current top four, which means something here.

Surdukowski:Bennet has been scoring very impressive endorsements and has a team working extremely hard. In terms of crowd size and buzz, Buttigieg would win if the primary were tomorrow. But a lot can happen in a month, just ask Howard Dean.

What is the media missing in New Hampshire?

Hosmer:If you go to coffee shops now, literally everyone is talking about the primary. It’s very much a jump ball. I was at the barbershop and struck up a conversation with a complete stranger. He talked about three or four candidates that interested him, and it was impressive to see how well-read this guy was about the candidates. But he was still undecided.

Levesque:The media is completely missing minority populations here, especially with all the talk of lack of diversity in New Hampshire and Iowa. The media could do a better job of seeking out opinions from more diverse populations in both states.

Meyer:Recent changes to the state’s residency laws for voting, which are a big deal and could significantly impact turnout among college students. Our state has done a huge disservice to young voters, especially by not clearly and concisely answering the questions that have come up for students who live on campus.

Sullivan:At this point in 2016, Sanders was at 50 percent in the polls. He ended up winning with about 61 percent. Now he’s in the mid-20s. That’s a pretty significant loss of support, yet the media seems to think he is doing well. The media is also missing the potential that there may be no clear winner here. Any candidate who finishes with more than 15 percent of the vote picks up delegates under the party rules. Let’s say there are four people who win delegates, then we’re on to Nevada and South Carolina!

Surdukowski:I think a hard, methodical and data-driven look at what “unicorn voters” who voted for President Obama twice and then voted for President Trump. There is a reflexive conventional wisdom that a race to the left is universally important in Democratic primaries, but in New Hampshire, where roughly 42 percent of the voters are independents who can draw a Democratic ballot in the primary, there is a real potential for a win by Buttigieg or Klobachur who have worked far more aggressively at courting folks in purple and red towns. The independents are the majority party here, something D.C. consultants helicoptering in may neglect at their peril.

How does a centrist who isn’t from a neighboring state break the Sanders/Warren stranglehold here?

Hosmer:I think a centrist wins by convincing voters in New Hampshire that if you want tobeat Trump, you’ve got to win the general. You’ve got to win the important states that we didn’t win in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida. And you’ve got to convince people that the far-left in the Democratic Party cannot win rural America. Of everyone in the field, I think Klobuchar and Buttigieg have the best chance of making that case.

Meyer:The supposition that Sanders and Warren have a stranglehold on the state is wrong. They certainly have an advantage by virtue of familiarity. But that also creates a much greater expectation for them to perform very well. The strength of the other campaigns also cancels out whatever home-field advantage they may have, creating a pretty equal fight here.

Levesque:It’s really about meeting people and getting vetted by voters. Sanders and Warren have a neighboring-state advantage, but there is room for those who are looking for more moderate candidates. With the current crisis in Iran, people may be looking for someone with experience on the international stage who can get us back on track working with allies in short order.

Sullivan:Show up and talk to voters. But I disagree that there is a stranglehold. Biden is doing well and could win. Buttigieg is doing respectably. Klobuchar is moving. At some point, all those undecideds are going somewhere, so this is not over.

Surdukowski:Personal charisma and practicality in policy outlook. A boost in Iowa doesn’t hurt for the many who won’t make up their mind until the final days. I still believe most people will vote for who inspires them.

#Democrats #Foreign #Politics #State

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forensiceyes · 5 years

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Grading the Presidential Candidates on Marijuana: Amy Klobuchar

Every Saturday, we have been running a series of blog posts that take a close look at the Democratic Party candidates for President in 2020. We examine each candidate’s historic approach to marijuana law and policy, and we also canvas their current respective stances on marijuana.

Over the past eight weeks, we covered Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Corey Booker, Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Yang. Today, we turn to Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar.

Grade: C+

Stance on marijuana: Amy Klobuchar supports legalizing marijuana, as she told the Washington Post in February. However, she has never been at all vocal on this issue.

History: Like many of her fellow Democratic presidential candidates, Klobuchar’s stance on marijuana has evolved over her political career. Klobuchar began her career as County Attorney of Hennepin County. In a 1998 debate leading up to her election, Klobuchar made clear she opposed legalization:

“I am opposed to the legalization of marijuana. I believe when you look across the world at what’s been happening, people have realized that legalizing drugs is not the answer.”

During her career as County Attorney, Klobuchar won a “tough on crime” reputation, imprisoning many individuals on drug convictions

Klobachur’s stance on cannabis has softened in the past couple years. Klobuchar was elected to the Senate in 2007, but only recently signed on to marijuana-related legislation. In 2018, she cosponsored the STATES Act, which if passed would protect states that choose to legalize marijuana (but would not end prohibition at the federal level). The same year, she also cosponsored legislation to increase research surrounding marijuana as well as to review whether CBD should remain on the controlled substances list. Unlike the rest of her fellow Democratic candidates in the Senate, however, Klobuchar did not sign on to The Marijuana Justice Act, which would legalize marijuana if passed.

Though this past February Klobuchar stated she supports legalizing cannabis, the word “cannabis” (or any of its synonyms) does not appear anywhere on her website or on her social media. Klobuchar’s plan for her first 100 days as president (which she links to on her website) does include starting “the evaluation process to reschedule marijuana.” Klobuchar’s website also addresses criminal justice reform where she promises to “create federal incentives so that states can restore some discretion from mandatory sentencing for nonviolent offenders.” Strangely, “restore some discretion” is a link to a CNN article with the headline “Amy Klobuchar says she supports legalizing marijuana.” Klobuchar also does not directly address the War on Drugs or federal legalization of cannabis

Conclusion: Klobuchar receives a “C+” grade because of her less than stellar history on cannabis and for her silence on legalization. Though Klobuchar stated support for legalizing marijuana, she obviously wants to distance herself from the issue by excluding any mention of marijuana from her social media and website. Klobuchar’s legislative history is also disappointing. Before 2018, the senator did not sponsor any bills related to marijuana. She has recently signed on to marijuana-related bills, but she is the only Democratic presidential candidate in the Senate who chose not to cosponsor The Marijuana Justice Act. Her pro-legalization stance, communicated in a single “statement” sent to The Washington Post, is not convincing. She comes across as having softened on legalization more for political reasons than out of any true commitment and she has done very little to demonstrate that she really wants to legalize marijuana.

Grading the Presidential Candidates on Marijuana: Amy Klobuchar posted first on http://ronenkurzfeld.blogspot.com

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