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shizucheese · 9 months

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So Fenfest weekend is over. The absence of my FC mates that couldn't get tickets was sorely felt but i got to spend one of the best weekends of my life with one of my best friends who also happens to be one of the people I've known the longest in the game. I'm currently sitting at the airport with the sniffles, 2-3 hours in to a 4-5 hour wait for my flight because my friend drove here and had a 7 hour drive ahead of him.

I have a lot of thoughts and feelings about this weekend.

I'm excited for Dawntrail. I'm excited to find out what the beginning of our next, what, 10 year journey? Is going to be like. I'm surprised they didn't announce female Hrothgar at this fanfest since Viera were originally announced at the 2018 NA fanfest but I feel like the fact that there are Hrothgar native to Tural all but confirms it, and maybe they're waiting until JP fanfest to officially announce it since that's when they originally announced male Hrothgar back in 2019. Also maybe where they are with the graphics update has something to do with it, because when we *do* get that progress video, you *know* it's going to be with the new graphics, because why bother making it with the old ones?

On the subject of the graphics update, I'm super hyped. When we finally get the benchmark trailer it's going to ruin the live version of the game for me for the rest of the expansion until 7.0 comes out. I'm planning on turning off all of my ReShade filters before servers go down when DT releases and then the first thing I'm doing when servers come back up is turning them back on one by one and seeing which ones I even need anymore. (In an ideal world, I just wouldn't need any of them anymore, but let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here, especially since my current filters help with my photosensitivity and I don't think anything has been said about improved antialiasing?)

I'm excited to find out what the new jobs will be. My prediction for months now has been a caster DPS and a melee DPS that uses scouting gear, because right now NIN is the only job in the game that doesn't share gear with anyone and DRG not sharing gear with anyone was the rational they gave for RPR using maiming gear.

My personal guess is the caster will be Geomancer. Back before Stormblood released, Yoshi-P did an interview where he mentioned that they had been considering an "Onmyoji-like" job before settling on RDM instead. At the time, the interviewer thought it might have been Oracle, but then SB came out and the the Geomancers in the AST job quests are onmyoji in all but name, so I'm pretty sure that's what the scrapped job job was. And the devs have a history of taking scrapped ideas and implanting them at a later time: Samurai was originally considered to be the tank in Heavensward (iirc the went with DRK at least in part because Yoshi-P didn't want SAM to be a tank). They considered Viera for the new race in HW (this is part of why people were so upset when we originally only got female Viera, because we knew concept art for male Viera existed and had seen it years before), before they decided to go with the FFXIV-original race of the Au Ra instead. So it wouldn't be surprising at all if the new caster ended up being that scrapped job from SB that sounded an awful lot like GEO. Assuming the TMNT shirt is hinting at the melee job, maybe it'll be something using nanchaku?

I know a lot of people are speculating Corsair because of what we've seen of Derplander so far in the trailers, and the whole the idea that he's one of the new jobs to mark the beginning of a new adventure is valid (and the fact that his outfit is being hidden by a robe the entire trailer lends credence to this) I think it's important to remember that the only expansion where he has ever been a job newly added to the expansion, it was also the only expansion where he was two jobs, the other one being one that had been in the game since ARR. What we've seen of his outfit may not even be a hint, because it reminds me a lot of his 6.1 outfit that we got as glamour. Based on the fact that we saw him fighting with a sword and no shield, I want to guess RDM (I know Alisaie is already our resident RDM, but...), but it's also entirely possible that when the full trailer comes out we're going to see him toss aside the sword and pull out a different weapon entirely (of the tanks, the only one he hasnt been yet is GNB, which I think would be a good fit for this expansion because of the Hrothgar connection. The only two melee DPS he hasnt been are NIN and RPR, which Indont think fit so well, but maybe he'll step out of his melee comfort zone and give magic ranged or phys ranged a try? Aesthetically I could see MCH being a good fit for this expansion...) The next 6 months are going to be very interesting.

Two Dyes! Two Dyes! Two Dyes!

(I wonder of us being able to use two dyes will affect what new gear looks like. Crafted leveling gear and some dungeon gear, like the first dungeon of the expansion and the dungeons added on even numbered patches, has always included gear that was reskins of previously added gear; in the past the could get away with this because it would dye a different part of the outfit or the color of the undyable part would he different. It'll be interesting to see how this gets handled going forward.)

I'm excited for next patch. I think people are overblowing the impact the change to alliance raid roulette will actually have. Like...yes, it'll prevent people from ilv cheering, which will be a huge help. But there are still a lot of people who only have the Crystal Tower raids unlocked because it's required for MSQ.

I can't wait to dump cash shop stuff into my aromoir; unfortunately until they make it so we can dye items in the armoir and *keep* them that color, it's largely going to only be items that can't he dyed and stuff that I don't actually use that goes in there. Should still be a huge help though and it'll open up some retainer space, since that's where I currently keep cash shop items I don't use.

I'm excited to see where MSQ goes (I'm willing to bet money we're going to take all that light aspected aether on the First and Dark aspects aether on the Thirteenth and find a way to connect the two worlds to balance things out. Did Zero turn herself into a Memoria crystal and we just carried her to the First in our pocket?)

Also very excited for the new Varient dungeon. I'm willing to bet money that Asura is actually one of the bosses from the Varient/ Criterion Dungeon. This might even be why people found the fight so easy, because it was effectively an 8 person version of a 4 person fight. I'm kinda having flashbacks to Protoultima and the expectations vs reality of that.

Then again, she had voiced lines, so maybe I'm way off and this is a second 6.5 trial (the first one being Zeromus). I just hope this isn't a repeat of Yojimbo with her being tied to Hildibrand. Then again, as my friend pointed out, she does have multiple arms...

The piano concert was great. Amanda Achen has pipes. I spent the last two years wondering what zone's music Soken was going to adapt to otomoton and now I'm kidding myself because the answer seems so obvious.

The Primals concert was great, but I wish I'd brought ear plugs. I've been expecting a Primals version of Hic Svnt Leones ever since I first heard it and it didn't happen, which shocked me. What we *did* get was a Primals version of Scream and now I'm torn, because Koji's version was incredible, but I would also kill to hear a Primals version of that song where Amanda does the singing.

We were also lucky enough to get tickets for the Eorzean Symphony and it was amazing. I cried. Back during the digital fanfest I mourned because I thought I'd never get a chance to hear the ShB music performed live, but last night they played Shadowbringers and Tomorrow and Tomorrow and now I feel...idk, healed? I cried ugly tears during Tomorrow and Tomorrow. Maybe it's because it's my favorite song in the entire game, or maybe it's because of the cold, but I'm getting a bit weepy right now even just thinking back on it.

Overall, it was an incredible weekend. I'm glad I went, and hopefully two years from now, I'll be able to go again (preferably with more of/ all of my FC). Or like...we'll all take a FC vacation together or go to to someone's house and watch the stream together while eating pancakes. We'll see what the future brings.

#ffxiv fanfest #ffxiv #ff14 #dawntrail #ffxiv dawntrail #fanfest 2023 #ffxiv spoilers #eorzean symphony #eorzean symphony 2023

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janice-kimberly-blog · 4 years

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The Year in Review for the 2019 Job Market

Before the finish of 2018, organizations had posted record quantities of employment opportunities, there were over a million a larger number of opening than jobless occupation searchers, the joblessness rate was close to its 50-year low, and yearly pay development had ascended to 3.3%.

As we go to the end of 2019, the activity advertise has based on some of a year ago's benefits, however, it came up short in different regions. Employment opportunities have tumbled from their pinnacle of 7.6 million to simply 7.0 million. Pay development has eased back from 3.3% to 3.1%. Month to month work gains is down to 180K from 223K in 2018. What's more, the monetary viewpoint is indistinct.

Monetary log jams in Europe and China, combined with vulnerability about duties and Brexit, have cut profoundly into business and speculator certainty. Furthermore, that has smothered boss interest for laborers. But then interest has been sufficiently able to drive proceeded with progress in key business results.

As we say goodbye to 2019, how about we think back on the year through the viewpoint of some key work showcase markers.

1. Occupation development appeared to be powerless from the get-go in the year, however, is in the groove again

The economy has now included 180K occupations normal every month in 2019, practically coordinating the nine-year normal of 189K. It is especially surprising that we are supporting this degree of development so late in the recuperation. Obviously, not all ventures developed similarly. The business has fallen in retail and developed more gradually than expected in assembling, however, developed powerfully in the administration division, especially in instruction and wellbeing administrations.

2. Joblessness tumbled to the least level in 50 years in 2019

In spite of the log jam in work development, the pace has been solid enough to push the joblessness rate even lower, from 3.9% toward the finish of 2018 to 3.5% today. Joblessness is especially low for school graduates (2.0%) and for individuals with some school or an Associate's degree (2.9%).

Joblessness tumbled to record-breaking record lows in 2019 for Hispanics (3.9% in September) and blacks (5.4% in October). A few states saw their joblessness rates hit unsurpassed record lows this year, for example, Vermont (2.2%) and Utah (2.5%).

3. Wages are rising all the more gradually, yet far quicker than swelling

Compensation development is famously difficult to quantify, particularly when the arrangement of the work advertise is evolving. However, extraordinary compared to other accessible measures proposes wage development eased back in 2019 in the wake of rising decently consistently since 2010.

With the Fed's favored swelling measure at simply 1.6%, be that as it may, laborers are as yet observing genuine increments in their buying power, which are filling development in shopper spending.

4. More Americans in their prime working years have an occupation

The portion of Americans of prime working age (25 to 54 years) who were utilized ticked upwards during the time from 79.7% toward the finish of 2018 to 80.3% most as of late.

The business rate increased especially remarkably for ladies, who were attracted to enter the work power by growing chances and improving working conditions, and for more seasoned specialists, perpetually of whom keep on working past retirement age.

5. Efficiency development—a key determinant of financial development—ticked upwards

Efficiency development, which is firmly connected to wage development and upgrades in financial prosperity, has been drowsy since 2011, yet 2019 brought humble improvement. All things considered, generally frail profitability measurements don't bolster the well-known thought that robots are taking our occupations. Simulated intelligence and computerization are not boosting profitability enough to diminish the requirement for people. Actually, 2019 was the time of the cobot—robots working close by people in developing quantities of stockrooms around the nation to satisfy quickly rising web-based business orders.

#recruiters #candidates #employers

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jodyedgarus · 5 years

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The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers — the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation — have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills,1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.

All of this uncertainty makes the NFL draft extremely exciting: You never know for certain who will be good and who will be an absolute bust. Last year, much of the pre-draft speculation surrounded where current Buffalo Bills starting QB Josh Allen — who is tall and can hit an upright from his knees from 50 yards away — would be selected. This year, when Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray decided to forgo a career in baseball for a chance to become a top pick in the 2019 NFL draft, his measurables captured attention in a different way. Murray, listed at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds, is 7 inches shorter and more than 40 pounds lighter than Allen, and he’s the the smallest top QB prospect in recent memory. While some scouts and NFL decision makers think Murray’s odds for NFL success are long — or have him off their draft boards entirely because of his lack of size — there is strong evidence in the form of metrics and models that he is actually a good bet to succeed.

Like the rest of the league, practitioners of analytics have a pretty poor track record at predicting QB success. It wasn’t just Browns fans who were high on Johnny Manziel — many predictive performance metrics liked him as well. If some of the world’s best football talent evaluators are convinced that Murray’s height is at least a minor red flag, how can we be confident that a 5-foot-10 college QB will be productive in the NFL? When it comes to the draft, deep humility is warranted. Still, there are solid reasons to be excited about Murray.

Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.

Completion percentage translates from college to the NFL

Share of NFL quarterback performance predicted by college performance in seven measures, 2011-18

share predicted Completion percentage 17.9%

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Average depth of target 16.7

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ESPN’s Total QBR 12.1

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Yards per game 9.2

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Touchdown rate 8.5

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Yards per attempt 7.0

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Adjusted yards per attempt 4.2

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For players who attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

“Share predicted” here refers to the amount of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable in a bivariate regression.

Source: ESPN Stats & information group

Its kissing cousin in the pantheon of stats that translate from college to the pros is average depth of target: Passers who throw short (or deep) in college tend to continue that pattern in the NFL. These two metrics can be combined3 to create an expected completion percentage, which helps correct the deficiencies in raw completion percentage. If you give more credit to players who routinely complete deeper passes — and dock passers who dump off and check down more frequently — you can get a clearer picture of a player’s true accuracy and decision-making.

Another important adjustment is to account for the level of competition a player faced. ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating does this, and we’re doing it, too. For instance, passes in the Big Ten are completed at a lower rate than in the Big 12 and the Pac-12. We should boost players from conferences where it is tougher to complete a pass and ding players whose numbers are generated in conferences where passing is easier.

When we make these adjustments, and then subtract expected completion percentage from a QB’s actual completion percentage, we get a new metric: completion percentage over expected, or CPOE. An example: In 2011 at Wisconsin, Russell Wilson had a raw completion percentage of 73 percent. We would expect an average QB in the same conference who attempted the same number of passes at the same depths that Wilson attempted to have a completion percentage of just 57 percent. So Wilson posted an incredible CPOE of +16 percentage points in his last year of college. CPOE translates slightly less to the NFL than either raw completion percentage or average depth of target,4 but it does a substantially better job of predicting on-field production. In stat nerd parlance, we’ve traded a little stability for increased relevance.

CPOE best predicts yards per attempt in the NFL

Share of an NFL quarterback’s yards per attempt predicted by college performance measures, 2011-18

share predicted Completion percentage over expected 15.5%

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Completion percentage 13.5

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ESPN’s Total QBR 13.2

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Yards per attempt 7.0

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Average depth of target 0.0

For players who attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

“Share predicted” here refers to the amount of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable in a bivariate regression.

Source: ESPN Stats & Information group

The test of a good metric is that it is stable over time (for example from college to the NFL) and that it correlates with something important or valuable. Completion percentage over expected is slightly more stable than other advanced metrics like QBR. CPOE is also the best predictor of NFL yards per attempt. Since yards per attempt correlates well with NFL wins, and winning is both important and valuable, we’ve found a solid metric. It should help us identify NFL prospects likely to be good — so long as they are drafted and see enough playing time to accumulate 100 or more passing attempts.5

But before we stuff the metric into a model and start ranking this year’s quarterback prospects, it’s worth asking why CPOE in college might be a good measure of QB skill. One possible explanation is that it’s measuring not just accuracy but also the signal from other qualities that are crucial to pro success. The ability to consistently find the open receiver and complete a pass to him requires a quarterback first to read a defense and then to throw on time and on target. Throwing with anticipation and football IQ are both crucial to playing in the NFL at a high level, and they are likely both a part of the success signal in the metric.

CPOE is also probably capturing the ability to execute a system efficiently. A quarterback who understands how each piece of the offense complements the others and constrains the opposing defense is a huge asset for his team. The term “system QB” has a negative connotation in player evaluation circles that is probably unwarranted. If a quarterback is operating at a high level, he is inseparable from the system he’s being asked to run. It’s also likely the case that the mental and physical abilities to run any system efficiently are traits that translate — even if only imperfectly — to the pro game.

CPOE also measures accuracy, of course — which many believe is the most important trait a QB can posses. Some coaches believe accuracy is an innate skill and not something that can be taught once a player has reached college. Others believe that mechanical flaws can be corrected if other traits like arm strength are present. The Bills clearly hold this view or they wouldn’t have drafted Allen, a player with an incredibly live arm but who had a college completion rate 9.2 percentage points below expected. But regardless of whether accuracy can be taught at the NFL level, all evaluators acknowledge its importance.

With all this in mind, I built a simple logistic regression model that attempts to identify players who will go on to establish a career mark of at least 7.1 yards per attempt in the NFL — the league average from 2009 to 2018. The model took into account CPOE and six other metrics, all calculated for the player’s college career.6 There are 49 quarterbacks who have entered the NFL since 2012 who have also attempted at least 100 passes — except for small-school QBs for whom advanced college data wasn’t available. I randomly split those players into two sets and used one set to build the model and the second set to test to see if the model is any better than random chance at identifying which prospects will go on to play productive NFL football. Though the model is relatively simple — and it would be wonderful if the sample size were larger — the results are promising. The model correctly identified many players who went on to have NFL success and many more who didn’t. The best estimate for its generalized accuracy is that it will correctly identify a QB prospect as a hit or a bust in around 74 percent of cases.7 The table below shows the results of the model, labeled Predict, and includes players’ college stats.

Results from the quarterback prospect model

A random sample of the 49 quarterbacks who were drafted since 2012* by model probability, along with college stats including completion percentage over expected (CPOE)

College stats name CPOE YPA Avg. depth of target Total QBR Predicted prob.† Career NFL YPA Russell Wilson +16 10.3 10.4 94 >99% 7.9 Johnny Manziel +9 9.1 8.8 89 99 6.5 Jameis Winston +8 9.4 9.6 83 98 7.6 Kellen Moore +10 8.7 7.8 86 97 7.5 Deshaun Watson +5 8.4 8.8 86 93 8.3 Sam Darnold +5 8.5 9.5 80 77 6.9 Matt Barkley +4 8.2 8.1 77 73 7.4 Jared Goff +1 7.8 9.0 74 61 7.7 Kevin Hogan +4 8.5 9.3 80 37 6.1 Marcus Mariota +4 9.3 8.2 90 33 7.2 Kirk Cousins +4 7.9 8.5 58 29 7.6 Paxton Lynch +2 7.4 7.9 59 14 6.2 Geno Smith +3 8.2 7.3 74 5 6.8 Nathan Peterman +1 7.9 8.9 71 4 4.3 Zach Mettenberger +4 8.8 10.5 71 4 6.8 Trevor Siemian 0 6.4 8.2 53 3 6.8 Matt McGloin -2 7.2 8.5 60 2 6.7 Blake Bortles +4 8.5 7.5 78 1 6.7 Lamar Jackson 0 8.3 11.0 82 0 7.1

*And have attempted at least 100 passes in the NFL.

†Probability the player will meet or exceed a career yards per passing attempt average of 7.1.

Source: ESPN stats & information group

Humility is warranted at this moment, so let’s point and laugh at the failures first. After all, all models are universally wrong, but some can be useful. This one was wrong about Johnny Football, as it practically guaranteed Manziel to be an above-average NFL quarterback. What it didn’t know about was Johnny’s love of all-night parties and other off-field shenanigans. Kellen Moore, a lefty passer who had a decorated career at Boise State, is another hiccup for the model. Moore is an interesting case of a player who just barely reached the 100 passing attempt threshold and eclipsed 7.1 yards per attempt for his NFL career but still bounced around the league and never found success or even a starting job. So the model predicted his statistical success in yards per attempt but not his actual success on the field. The problem here is that our success metric — career yards per attempt over 7.1 — doesn’t perfectly discriminate between good and bad NFL QBs. Much like human evaluators, models can sometimes be right for the wrong reasons, and Moore is a prime example.8

The model was also suspiciously bad at predicting Lamar Jackson, ranking him as an almost sure bust as a passer. Jackson’s career yards per attempt — most of those attempts coming in just seven games — is right at the 7.1 threshold, and while he is no one’s idea of Drew Brees, a success probability of zero seems an overly harsh assessment for a player that has clear talent — especially running the ball — and has already helped his team to the playoffs.

Still, the good outweighs the bad. The only other false negatives in the bunch are Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota, both of whom have career yards per attempt figures above 7.1. Meanwhile the low probabilities assigned to passers like Nate Peterman, Zach Mettenberger, Paxton Lynch, Geno Smith and Blake Bortles all appear reasonably prescient.

Looking forward and applying the model to the current draft class, we find a few surprises. Kyler Murray sits comfortably at the top with a 97 percent probability of being an above-average pro quarterback. Murray’s physical and statistical production comps with Russell Wilson are especially striking. Wilson and Murray had roughly the same yards per attempt in college, identical average depth of target and similar Total QBR.9 Both are also under 6 feet tall and played baseball at a high level. As far as comps go for short QBs, you really can’t do any better.

Murray isn’t just a scrambler who excels working outside of the pocket and on broken plays, either. According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, 91 percent of Murray’s 377 pass attempts in 2018 came inside the pocket, and 81.6 percent of those throws were on target and catchable. Murray faced five or more defensive backs on 82 percent of his passing attempts and threw a catchable pass 78.8 percent of the time. Against nickel and dime packages, he was even better when blitzed, with 79.1 percent of his passes charted as catchable when the defense brought pressure. And Murray didn’t just check down to the outlet receiver when the other team sent heat. Kyler pushed the ball downfield at depths of 20 yards or greater 21 percent of the time vs. a blitzing defender.

Meanwhile the other consensus first-round talent, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, is viewed as much less of a sure thing by the model. While his CPOE is identical to Murray’s and his QBR is similar, the model rates his yards per attempt and low average depth of target as red flags that drag down his probability of success. Nickel is the base defense in the NFL, so a quarterback’s performance against it is important, and Haskins faced five or more defensive backs far less often than Murray, dropping back against nickel or dime on just 63 percent of his pass attempts. And when Haskins was blitzed out of those looks, he was not as adept at delivering on-target passes, with 76.4 percent charted as catchable despite only 6.6 percent traveling 20 yards or more in the air.

Kyler Murray’s accuracy and rushing put him atop his class

College quarterbacks invited to the 2019 NFL combine by their career statistics and predicted probability of success*

College stats Player CPOE YPA Avg. depth of target Total QBR Predicted Prob.† Kyler Murray +9% 10.4 10.4 92 97% Will Grier +6 9.0 10.2 78 90 Ryan Finley +4 7.6 8.5 76 78 Jordan Ta’amu +6 9.5 10.1 72 72 Dwayne Haskins +9 9.1 7.8 87 63 Brett Rypien +5 8.4 9.9 67 39 Jake Browning +3 8.3 8.8 73 38 Clayton Thorson 0 6.3 7.9 61 29 Trace McSorley +3 8.1 9.7 73 22 Daniel Jones -2 6.4 7.7 62 17 Gardner Minshew +2 7.1 6.8 70 4 Jarrett Stidham +3 8.5 8.3 69 3 Kyle Shurmur -3 7.0 9.0 59 1 Drew Lock -1 7.9 10.3 66 <1 Tyree Jackson -2 7.3 10.4 59 <1 Nick Fitzgerald -4 6.6 10.2 72 <1

*Excluding Easton Stick because of lack of data

†Probability the player will meet or exceed a career average of 7.1 yards per passing attempt

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

Other surprises from the consensus top-four prospects are the rankings of Duke’s Daniel Jones and Missouri’s Drew Lock — both of whom completed fewer passes than we would expect, and both of whom were assigned a low probability of NFL success. Teams should probably be very wary of both players. Since 2011, college QB prospects with completion percentages under expected — a list that includes Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon, Matt McGloin and Jacoby Brissett — have all failed to post career yards per attempt above the league average of 7.1. Meanwhile West Virginia’s Will Grier — a player few experts have mocked to go in the first round — looks to be the second-best QB prospect of the class. With his excellent college production and nearly prototypical size at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, Grier is a player whose stock could rise with a good performance on and off the field at the combine.

There are many weeks of interviews, testing and evaluation left to come for each of these prospects, and analytics are just one piece of the process. Models are certainly not a player’s destiny. Murray might end up profiling as a selfish diva who can’t play well with others. Lock could somehow morph into Patrick Mahomes. But ultimately the model and the metrics agree with Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury’s assessment that Murray is worthy of the top overall pick in the draft. Ship him off to a team with an early pick and a creative play-caller, and enjoy the air raid fever dream that follows.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

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freebetalerts-blog · 6 years

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Saturday Championship Tips: Lions to pounce on rudderless Villains

(New post on FreeBetAlerts.com) - https://freebetalerts.com/2018/10/05/saturday-championship-tips-lions-to-pounce-on-rudderless-villains/ #Football, #Freebets, #Tips

Saturday Championship Tips: Lions to pounce on rudderless Villains Please share.

. is going with Millwall, Sheffield United and West Brom to boost his betting balance this Saturday… “Millwall are not a sure thing. A quick glance at their league form doesn’t have you lumping on regardless, but I was impressed by the fight they showed in coming from 2-0 down against Notts Forest to earn a draw on Wednesday. Season’s have been defined by such results.”

Managerless Villa prey in Lions’ Den

Millwall [3.0] v Aston Villa [2.62]; The Draw [3.4]

Managerless Villa travel to London on Saturday and we all know these kind of matches can go one of two ways. Either Villa are freed up and firing or they are rudderless and vulnerable. I believe the departure of Steve Bruce will make things difficult for the Villains in the short term. The price on Millwall of [3.0] is therefore my best bet this weekend.

Now, I know that Millwall are not a sure thing and quick glance at their league form doesn’t have you lumping on, but I was impressed by the fight they showed in coming from 2-0 down against Notts Forest to earn a draw on Wednesday. Season’s have been defined by such results.

Under fire Millwall boss, Neil Harris, said after that draw: “Our luck has to turn eventually and that equaliser at the end felt like a turning point. It was a point gained, that is for sure and it will give us belief moving forward.”

For Villa, just two points from the last nine has seen Bruce handed his P45 and stabilty won’t be guaranteed until a new man is at the helm. I can’t back a side that is floundering as Villa are and for me a speculative punt on Millwall to do the business in Saturday is the way forward.

Saturday success may not save Harris this season, but their price is too good to ignore.

Blades are firing as Stoke begin to find feet

Sheff Utd [1.62] v Hull [6.4]; The Draw [4.2]

I could write for hours about Sheffield United’s three wins on the bounce, that they have scored eight goals in three games and Chris Wilder has led them back level on points at the top of the Championship table.

I could then add another six paragraphs about how Hull City are a dreadful side that have take just one point from the last 12 available and how I wouldn’t buy a ticket for my worst enemy to watch them play. Hull have been losing at both half time and full time in their last three away matches and have conceded at least two goals in their last four away games.

Sheffield United will finish this season in the top six and Hull City will be playing League One football next season. The Blades win this game and in some style.

While I do give credence to head-to-head stats, and the Blades have won just one of their last six fixtures with Hull, this game is chalk against cheese and Sheffield Utd to Win and Over 2.5 Goals on the sportsbook is the way to eek out a bit more value.

Baggies and goals at The Hawthornes

West Brom [1.56] v Reading [7.0]; The Draw [4.4]

Sometimes your stock rises as a player when you are sidelined. Reading’s current injury list is long, but I’d argue there is little incentives for the sick to find health this week. Stay in the physio’s room and avoid a West Brom hammering would be my advice.

West Brom are also showing fight. 2-0 down against Sheffield Wednesday mid-week, they secured a 2-2 draw with goals in the 85th and 87th minute. Allied to that their home form has seen them notch 15 goals and four successive wins, you can never back against Darren Moore’s side.

West Brom are also undefeated in their last five home matches against Reading in all competitions.

Away from home Reading have been unbeaten in their last four matches (1W, 3D), and they have score in each of those games so Both Teams To Score is a play, but I cannot be urged away from a home win.

A 1-0 home defeat to QPR leaves Paul Clement desperately seeking answers to keep his job and an away trip to face the Baggies could see the end of him.

West Brom win this match and I’m taking them to win and Over 3.5 goals (sportsbook) in the game to push the price out to something quite juicy.

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*You can follow James on Twitter – @football_badger

2018/19 P/L Staked: 44 ptsReturned: 40.90 ptsP/L: -3.10 pts

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cleancutpage · 6 years

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Blip on the Radar for Retail?

This post originally appeared on tBL member Michael Bull's Bull Realty Blog and is republished with permission. Find out how to syndicate your content with theBrokerList.

Geoffrey the Giraffe may have had a bigger impact on the retail sector than expected. With Toys “R” Us closing stores nationwide, the quarterly numbers were down. In fact, Q2 2018 saw a record-breaking 3.8 million SF of negative net absorption. This quarter’s numbers were so far off from the steadiness of the retail recovery that it can safely be called a blip on the radar.

In Q2 2018, the national vacancy rate for neighborhood and community shopping centers increased 20 basis points to 10.2%. The mall vacancy rate also increased 20 basis points to 8.6%, according to REIS’ Q2 2018 Preliminary Retail Trends report.

Somewhat surprisingly, rent growth has remained positive despite the increase in vacancy. Nationally, for neighborhood and community centers, both asking and effective rents increased 0.2% in the first quarter to $21.01 and $18.39/SF. This is a 1.7% and 1.8% increase year-over-year, respectively. Mall rents increased 0.3% in the quarter and 1.6% year-over-year.

New construction in the quarter totaled 780,000 SF, which “was welcome news in a tough retail climate that has suffered from numerous store closings across the U.S.,” reported REIS. Besides Toys “R” Us, other store closings in the quarter were Winn-Dixie with eight stores, Kmart with seven stores and Harvey with five stores.

However, the list of current and future store openings is longer than the list of closings. “Ross Stores Inc. opened 30 stores in June and July as part of the company’s push to add about 100 new outlets this year,” reported CoStar. “Low-cost supermarket chain Aldi plans to open 200 stores this year. Walmart and Gap both plan 90 new outlets, and Five Below, a Philadelphia-based discount chain offering items for less than $5, said it would open 125 stores, according to Coresight Research,” reported CoStar. REIS also mentioned “a few gyms and trampoline parks opened in some metros along with TJ Maxx, Target, Gabe’s and Bob Mills” in Q2 2018.

The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June 2018 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%, down 30 basis year over year according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate retail sales in June 2018 were $506.8 billion, a 6.6% increase from June 2017.

“The retail statistics somewhat mirror the retail employment numbers,” reported REIS. “The U.S. retail sector has seen positive job growth every month in 2018 and has added 125,100 jobs over the last 12 months. Only 24,100 of these jobs were in e-commerce, and another 30,600 of the 125,100 retail jobs were in automobile or gasoline retail stations. Thus, the retail industries using traditional retail space are still showing net gains in employment. Moreover, restaurants have added 216,200 jobs (1.8%) over the last year.”

“Cap rates for shopping centers were unchanged from a year earlier in Q2’18 at 7.0%. For shops, though, there was a slight 10 bps increase with cap rates averaging 6.0% in Q2’18. The cap rates for shops are also lower than those for shopping centers relative to the historic trends in each segment of the market. Cap rates for shops are now 90 bps lower than the long-run trend while shopping centers are only 60 bps lower than the longterm trend,” reported Real Capital Analytics.

REIS predicts vacancy and rents will stay flat and that the majority of the negative net absorption is in the past.

Atlanta

In Atlanta, vacancy for neighborhood and community shopping centers increased 10 basis points to 11.6%, (a 30-basis point increase year over year). Annual asking and effective rent growth was 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. The metro saw effective rent growth of 0.6% in the quarter to an average effective rent of $16.56, reported REIS.

Jonathan DiGiovanni

“Demand for retail in Atlanta continues to be strong, as several fundamental drivers remain elevated. Job creation has outpaced the national average since 2012 and Atlanta has added the fourth most households out of any metro in the country during the last five years,” reported CoStar. “Moreover, a light delivery pipeline (relative to the historical average) has kept supply-side pressures low, allowing retail fundamentals to improve steadily over the cycle.”

“The good real estate vacated by Toys ‘R’ Us will be absorbed quickly and in Atlanta, strong market fundamentals coupled with the fact that we have had limited new retail product delivered during this cycle will help keep vacancy stable and rents strong,” said Jonathan DiGiovanni, V.P. of the National Retail Group with Bull Realty.

CoStar speculates that Atlanta retail is – and will continue to be – in a better position than the country as a whole. Toys “R” Us may be gone but retail lives on.

Bull Realty Research, Inc.

RSS Feed provided by theBrokerList Blog - Are you on theBrokerList for commercial real estate (cre)? and Blip on the Radar for Retail? was written by Bull Realty.

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starrysnowdrop · 9 months

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In honor of Yoshi-P’s Ninja Turtles shirt at NA Fanfest 2023, assuming that it, in fact, does show the caster job and not the melee job, I have a very important question for you all:

#ffxiv dawntrail #7.0 speculation #job speculation #7.0 caster job

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muteddchaos · 7 years

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years 2009-2012

2009

· Pilot hailed for ‘Hudson miracle’ The pilot of an airliner that ditched in New York’s Hudson River has been hailed a hero after all 155 passengers and crew were rescued.. · Clock ticking on worm attack code An 18-year-old has secretly painted a 60ft drawing of a phallus on the roof of his parents’ £1million mansion in Berkshire. · Golfer Tiger Woods’ private life attracted much speculation. A week after he apologised to his family for letting them down, his mother-inlaw was suddenly admitted to hospital while staying at his Florida home. · Michael Jackson died. The 50-year-old pop legend was pronounced dead at his home in Beverly Hills, Los Angeles, after he stopped breathing. On July 7, a public memorial service is held for Michael Jackson. It is regarded as one of the most prominent funerals of all time since the death of Elvis Presley in 1977. · The outbreak of the H1N1 influenza strain, commonly referred to as “swine flu”, is deemed a global pandemic, becoming the first condition since the Hong Kong flu of 1967–1968 to receive this designation. · Maersk Alabama hijacking: Cargo ship MV Maersk Alabama is captured by Somali pirates, the first successful pirate seizure of a ship registered under the American flag since the 1820s. · Paleontologists announce the discovery of an Ardipithecus ramidus fossil skeleton, deeming it the oldest remains of a human ancestor yet found ..The oldest skeleton of a human ancestor is uncovered in Ethiopia · Astronomers discover GJ 1214 b, the first-known exoplanet on which water could exist.

2010

· Chilean Miners—Thirty-three miners working in the San Jose copper-gold mine near Copiapo, Chile became trapped 2,000 feet underground after a cave-in and mining accident that captured global attention. All successfully extracted from the mine 69 days later, an estimated more than 1 billion people across the planet watched their televised rescue. · BP Oil Spill—Up to 260 million gallons of crude oil spewed into the Gulf of Mexico over the course of three months when the Deepwater Horizon oil platform operated by British Petroleum exploded in April, killing 11 workers, and solidifying the accident as the worst oil spill in history. Countless marine life have perished and immeasurable ecosystems destroyed, a 22-mile-long plume has been discovered lurking below the ocean’s surface, and the feasibility of offshore drilling contrasted to its potential dangers has been questioned. The spill’s impact will be felt long into the foreseeable future. · The tallest man-made structure to date, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, is officially opened. · Haiti Earthquake—With more than 3 million people affected and an estimated death toll of more than 230,000, the 7.0-magnitude earthquake that struck Haiti and devastated its capital Port-au-Prince this January is one of the deadliest such natural disasters on record. The severe destruction left in the quake’s wake—including an estimated more than 300,000 injured and 1 million left homeless— prompted collective global humanitarian relief efforts that continue to this day. · The first 24-hour flight by a solar-powered plane is completed by the Solar Impulse. · WikiLeaks, an online publisher of anonymous, covert, and classified material, leaks to the public over 90,000 internal reports about the United States-led involvement in the War in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2010. WikiLeaks releases a collection of more than 250,000 American diplomatic cables, including 100,000 marked “secret” or “confidential”.

2011

· US forces kill the al-Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, in a raid on a house in Abbottabad, Pakistan · Prince William marries Catherine Middleton at Westminster Abbey · Apple co-founder Steve Jobs dies, aged 56 · Powerful Earthquake hits Japan - A 9.0-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit the east of Japan, killing 15,840 and leaving another 3,926 missing. Tsunami warnings are issued in 50 countries and territories. Emergencies are declared at four nuclear power plants affected by the quake · The world’s first artificial organ transplant is achieved, using an artificial windpipe coated with stem cells. · The planet Neptune completes its first orbit since it was discovered in 1846. · NASA announces that its Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has captured photographic evidence of possible liquid water on Mars during warm seasons. · The United States formally declares an end to the Iraq War. While this ends the insurgency, it begins another. · Worlds Seven Billionth baby is born · Arab Spring: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigns after widespread protests calling for his departure, leaving control of Egypt in the hands of the military until a general election can be held. · Uncertainty over Libyan oil output causes crude oil prices to rise 20% over a two-week period following the Arab Spring, causing the 2011 energy crisis.

2012

· KONY 2012” Went Viral and Backfired Non-profit Invisible Children released “KONY 2012,” a video about Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony. The video went viral soon after posting, but it drew critics who claimed the video had a narrow view, lack of information and a “white savior” mentality. · TIME’s Breastfeeding Cover Shocked the Internet -controversial May 2012 cover pictured a 26-year-old mother breastfeeding her almost four-year-old son. The photo caused intense reactions from Internet users, who either criticized, applauded or manipulated the image in Photoshop. · PSY 6 releases Gangnam Style. It quickly went viral. By the end of the year, the video was the most watched clip in the history of the internet. · The 2012 Summer Games open in London. A couple weeks later, Usain Bolt runs his way into the history books by achieving a “double triple:” winning 100 meters, 200 meters and the 4x100m relays at consecutive olympic game · The Mars Curiosity rover lands successfully on the Red Planet after seven minutes of terror. The most successful NASA mission in decades. · Felix Baumgartner jumps from 127,000 feet all the way back down to Earth, breaking not only the sound barriers, but some world records as well. He gathered vital information for NASA in the process. · Word of the year is ‘Gif’. · A heavily-armed gunman kills twenty children and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. It’s one of the worst tragedies in American history. Following widespread public outrage, President Obama vows to pass legislation on gun control. · A decade ago, Lance Armstrong was cycling royalty, halfway through what would become an unprecedented seven-year reign as Tour de France champion. Armstrong, who survived testicular cancer that spread to his lungs and brain, had always denied doping. Less than a month after being stripped of his Tour de France titles, he cut formal ties with the cancer-fighting charity he founded. · The world was predicted that it was going to end.

#research

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cleancutpage · 6 years

Text

Blip on the Radar for Retail?

This post originally appeared on tBL member Michael Bull's Bull Realty Blog and is republished with permission. Find out how to syndicate your content with theBrokerList.

REIS predicts vacancy and rents will stay flat and that the majority of the negative net absorption is in the past.

Atlanta

Jonathan DiGiovanni

CoStar speculates that Atlanta retail is – and will continue to be – in a better position than the country as a whole. Toys “R” Us may be gone but retail lives on.

Bull Realty Research, Inc.

RSS Feed provided by theBrokerList Blog - Are you on theBrokerList for commercial real estate (cre)? and Blip on the Radar for Retail? was written by Bull Realty.

Blip on the Radar for Retail? published first on https://greatlivinghomespage.tumblr.com/

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