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April 15, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.
NYI 92 pts (81 GP) - PLAYOFFS CLINCHED AT M3
WSH 89 pts (81 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91
DET 89 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 91
PIT 88 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 90
PHI 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89
If the Flyers want the playoffs, here's the only viable scenario:
Flyers have to beat Washington in regulation, 4.16.24
Montreal MUST beat Detroit in regulation, 4.16.24
Islanders MUST beat Pittsburgh in regulation, 4.17.24
That's it. May God be with us.
April 14, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.
NYI (37-27-16) 90 pts (80 GP) - holds M3 spot - most possible points is 92
WSH (38-31-11) 87 pts (80 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91
DET (39-32-9) 87 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 91
PHI (38-32-11) 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89
PIT (37-31-12) 86 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 90
Assuming that PHI wins v WSH on 4.16.24, gaining the maximum possible 89 points, here are the scenarios:
No team can gain more than 2 points.
Although Pittsburgh would tie in points (89) if they gained three in the standings, they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker above us (31 reg Ws to our 30). PIT cannot go 1-0-1.
We hold the regulation win tiebreaker over Detroit (28 reg Ws to our 30). Because they are only two points below us, they are in the same scenario as Pittsburgh; DET cannot go 1-0-1. (They are currently above us in the standings due to points percentage.)
Washington is a funky one. Okay. Here I go. Assume Flyers win on the 16th.
- WSH goes 0-2-0. Yippee!!
- WSH goes 0-0-2 for 89 points. Both PHI and WSH have 8 OTWs, 4 in SO. (30 reg Ws per club.) The tiebreaker then, if I did my research correctly is TOTAL WINS; this would be Philadelphia, with 39 wins on the season.
- WSH goes 0-1-1 for 88 points. PHI has 89. All good.
- WSH goes 1-1-0 for 89 points. PHI wins against them; the tiebreaker, after regulation wins and total wins, is head to head matchups. If we go 2-0-1 against them, gaining 4 points to their 3 against us, we're good.
- WSH goes 1-0-1 for 90 points. :NOT GOOD. WSH cannot go 1-0-1. We've been over this with others; no team can gain 3 points.
THE FLYERS CAN CLINCH ON TUESDAY 4.16.24 IF:
4.15.24: Pittsburgh, Detroit both lose in regulation (max possible points not enough or PHI holds tiebreaker) and Washington loses in any scenario AND
4.16.24: Flyers win in regulation or OT.
(If Washington wins against Boston, Flyers MUST win in regulation.)
GAMES TO PAY ATTENTION TO
April 14, 2024:
None
April 15, 2024:
DET v MTL // PIT v NSH // WSH v BOS //
April 16, 2024:
PHI v WSH // DET @ MTL
April 17, 2024:
PIT @ NYI
📸: Len Redkoles
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Really the most important takeaway here is that the Flyers cannot be eliminated without playing on Monday; they have something of a hand in their destiny. What happens on Tuesday and Wednesday both from the Flyers and from Detroit and Pittsburgh will decide their fate - but they can’t be taken out of the race without first having one final say. That’s what matters to me.
April 14, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.
NYI (37-27-16) 90 pts (80 GP) - holds M3 spot - most possible points is 92
WSH (38-31-11) 87 pts (80 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91
DET (39-32-9) 87 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 91
PHI (38-32-11) 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89
PIT (37-31-12) 86 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 90
Assuming that PHI wins v WSH on 4.16.24, gaining the maximum possible 89 points, here are the scenarios:
No team can gain more than 2 points.
Although Pittsburgh would tie in points (89) if they gained three in the standings, they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker above us (31 reg Ws to our 30). PIT cannot go 1-0-1.
We hold the regulation win tiebreaker over Detroit (28 reg Ws to our 30). Because they are only two points below us, they are in the same scenario as Pittsburgh; DET cannot go 1-0-1. (They are currently above us in the standings due to points percentage.)
Washington is a funky one. Okay. Here I go. Assume Flyers win on the 16th.
- WSH goes 0-2-0. Yippee!!
- WSH goes 0-0-2 for 89 points. Both PHI and WSH have 8 OTWs, 4 in SO. (30 reg Ws per club.) The tiebreaker then, if I did my research correctly is TOTAL WINS; this would be Philadelphia, with 39 wins on the season.
- WSH goes 0-1-1 for 88 points. PHI has 89. All good.
- WSH goes 1-1-0 for 89 points. PHI wins against them; the tiebreaker, after regulation wins and total wins, is head to head matchups. If we go 2-0-1 against them, gaining 4 points to their 3 against us, we're good.
- WSH goes 1-0-1 for 90 points. :NOT GOOD. WSH cannot go 1-0-1. We've been over this with others; no team can gain 3 points.
THE FLYERS CAN CLINCH ON TUESDAY 4.16.24 IF:
4.15.24: Pittsburgh, Detroit both lose in regulation (max possible points not enough or PHI holds tiebreaker) and Washington loses in any scenario AND
4.16.24: Flyers win in regulation or OT.
(If Washington wins against Boston, Flyers MUST win in regulation.)
GAMES TO PAY ATTENTION TO
April 14, 2024:
None
April 15, 2024:
DET v MTL // PIT v NSH // WSH v BOS //
April 16, 2024:
PHI v WSH // DET @ MTL
April 17, 2024:
PIT @ NYI
📸: Len Redkoles
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Oh - and Ersson is now tied for 4th for winningest rookie goalies in Philadelphia Flyers history. He's in pretty good company.
Congratulations to Sam Ersson on playing his 50th game of the 2023-24 season on Saturday, April 13, 2024, and posting a shutout for it as well. That brings him to 4 shutouts on the season and 5 career shutouts. According to John Tortorella, Ersson will play his 51st game of the season on Tuesday, April 16th. 50 GP will tie Ersson with Tristan Jarry for 15th-most played goaltender in the NHL this season.
(I'm writing this the night of the 13th; Hockey-reference won't update until morning of the 14th. Also – Luukkonen turned 25 on March 9. Ersson is the youngest goalie on this list, and the only rookie.)
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Congratulations to Sam Ersson on playing his 50th game of the 2023-24 season on Saturday, April 13, 2024, and posting a shutout for it as well. That brings him to 4 shutouts on the season and 5 career shutouts. According to John Tortorella, Ersson will play his 51st game of the season on Tuesday, April 16th. 50 GP will tie Ersson with Tristan Jarry for 15th-most played goaltender in the NHL this season.
(I'm writing this the night of the 13th; Hockey-reference won't update until morning of the 14th. Also – Luukkonen turned 25 on March 9. Ersson is the youngest goalie on this list, and the only rookie.)
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April 14, 2024. The Metro playoff race is as follows.
NYI (37-27-16) 90 pts (80 GP) - holds M3 spot - most possible points is 92
WSH (38-31-11) 87 pts (80 GP) - holds WC2 spot - most possible points is 91
DET (39-32-9) 87 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 91
PHI (38-32-11) 87 pts (81 GP) - most possible points is 89
PIT (37-31-12) 86 pts (80 GP) - most possible points is 90
Assuming that PHI wins v WSH on 4.16.24, gaining the maximum possible 89 points, here are the scenarios:
No team can gain more than 2 points.
Although Pittsburgh would tie in points (89) if they gained three in the standings, they hold the regulation wins tiebreaker above us (31 reg Ws to our 30). PIT cannot go 1-0-1.
We hold the regulation win tiebreaker over Detroit (28 reg Ws to our 30). Because they are only two points below us, they are in the same scenario as Pittsburgh; DET cannot go 1-0-1. (They are currently above us in the standings due to points percentage.)
Washington is a funky one. Okay. Here I go. Assume Flyers win on the 16th.
- WSH goes 0-2-0. Yippee!!
- WSH goes 0-0-2 for 89 points. Both PHI and WSH have 8 OTWs, 4 in SO. (30 reg Ws per club.) The tiebreaker then, if I did my research correctly is TOTAL WINS; this would be Philadelphia, with 39 wins on the season.
- WSH goes 0-1-1 for 88 points. PHI has 89. All good.
- WSH goes 1-1-0 for 89 points. PHI wins against them; the tiebreaker, after regulation wins and total wins, is head to head matchups. If we go 2-0-1 against them, gaining 4 points to their 3 against us, we're good.
- WSH goes 1-0-1 for 90 points. :NOT GOOD. WSH cannot go 1-0-1. We've been over this with others; no team can gain 3 points.
THE FLYERS CAN CLINCH ON TUESDAY 4.16.24 IF:
4.15.24: Pittsburgh, Detroit both lose in regulation (max possible points not enough or PHI holds tiebreaker) and Washington loses in any scenario AND
4.16.24: Flyers win in regulation or OT.
(If Washington wins against Boston, Flyers MUST win in regulation.)
GAMES TO PAY ATTENTION TO
April 14, 2024:
None
April 15, 2024:
DET v MTL // PIT v NSH // WSH v BOS //
April 16, 2024:
PHI v WSH // DET @ MTL
April 17, 2024:
PIT @ NYI
📸: Len Redkoles
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SAM ERSSON FOURTH SHUTOUT OF THE SEASON
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Hmm, Kevin Kurz deleted his post, so maybe the information wasn't accurate. In which case – Ersson definitely probably starts – and take everything here with a grain of salt.
Via Jordan Hall on Twitter.
Super excited to see this dude play, but after consideration and some reading, I'm not sure he'll play on Saturday vs the Blackhawks. Yes, he's been in Philly since earlier this week and is already officially the backup, but I'm inclined to agree with Jason Myrtetus (here and here); Ersson's still the best option. I'm sure that Fedotov has probably watched the past couple Flyers games to get a sense of them (performance anxiety last night?) but it might be better that he sees at least one from the bench, in the thick of it.
Jason Myrtetus: "Also, he needs some communication elements understood on where to leave pockets on rims, to communicate with his defenseman and other elements..." from that second tweet I linked... hard agree. I don't believe he's even practiced with the team – they had an off day today (3.29) and one practice may not be enough. If he watches a game live – has he been able to watch from the press box, if he's already been in Philly? probably not – it'll give him a better and more well-rounded sense of the team and how they play.
Whatever happens, congratulations to Ivan Fedotov, who NOBODY saw coming but everyone is thrilled to have.
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Via Jordan Hall on Twitter.
Super excited to see this dude play, but after consideration and some reading, I'm not sure he'll play on Saturday vs the Blackhawks. Yes, he's been in Philly since earlier this week and is already officially the backup, but I'm inclined to agree with Jason Myrtetus (here and here); Ersson's still the best option. I'm sure that Fedotov has probably watched the past couple Flyers games to get a sense of them (performance anxiety last night?) but it might be better that he sees at least one from the bench, in the thick of it.
Jason Myrtetus: "Also, he needs some communication elements understood on where to leave pockets on rims, to communicate with his defenseman and other elements..." from that second tweet I linked... hard agree. I don't believe he's even practiced with the team – they had an off day today (3.29) and one practice may not be enough. If he watches a game live – has he been able to watch from the press box, if he's already been in Philly? probably not – it'll give him a better and more well-rounded sense of the team and how they play.
Whatever happens, congratulations to Ivan Fedotov, who NOBODY saw coming but everyone is thrilled to have.
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this is unreal 😮💨
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📸: Arianne Bergeron
Have a lot - a lot - of thoughts about Ersson's play tonight. All of it good, actually, but mostly that recently I've felt... worried, or scared, when watching him play. After this – it was different – I think he needed to find a way to boost his confidence, and he needed to find a creative way to do it. And what a way to do it. Ersson hasn't been taking risks recently – something that he had more freedom to do as a backup in the middle of the season, but with the extra pressure, he's been very careful, and I think that has had a detrimental effect. This was not a careful play. I don't think Ersson's a careful goalie, and I think he's... well I don't think he's been trying to be a careful goalie, but when risky plays can lead to goals, and you're really your team's only option, it's fair to assume one would want to be more careful.
Being patient and being careful are two different things. Ersson's had good patience all season, but he's very good at puckhandling – as evidenced – but careful is anxious is overthinking. Ersson's been the most played goalie in the NHL for months. He's seen a lot of action. I think he just needed to find a way to snap himself back into what he knows he can do, because the guy's gotten scored on a lot, and hasn't made enough saves to keep himself feeling confident. It's frustrating and upsetting that those first two goals went in, but those were both started by defensive breakdowns, and we know the Flyers can come back from that sort of deficit – but two overturned goals later, and Owen Tippett, too little, too late. Ersson kept them in the game as best he could.
Suzuki tried his hand on Ersson again in the third – but A. he smacked him in the head with his stick and B. it was a high-stick goal, so it was overturned. Another dirty play ripping off Laughton's helmet. Bruh.
But after this – yeah, not a moment of confidence lacking for Ersson. Didn't see a puck for 13 minutes of the third period. Came up with four huge saves. Fuck an empty net, and fuck an illegal goal. And Suzuki needs to cease this thing with helmets.
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MARCH 26, 2024
FLYERS @ RANGERS, 6-5 OTL
IN TONIGHT'S GAME, Samuel Ersson had:
21 saves
6 goals against
.778 SV%
Sometimes I worry that the Flyers' style of defense doesn't work well for Ersson. He's mentioned in multiple interviews that he prefers to see shots on goal early on in the game, to get a feel for the puck and to warm up, but in tonight's game there were long stretches of time, minutes and minutes of play, where he didn't see a shot. And while the self-sacrificing nature of Flyers defense might look good on paper and prevents many a goal, does it also have a tendency to mindfuck our goalie? I think it's not out of the question to speculate that that might be an issue that Sandström faces as well, though I don't know for sure.
In Ersson's postgame interview he was visibly upset:
"Obviously I know I gotta come up with a couple of saves, it's... tough, I felt like in the times they had the shots they went in, I didn't really get to feel that puck that much in the third, so it's one of those things I gotta find a way to handle it better mentally and come up with those saves when the team needs it."
Ersson's at the high end of what I'm generally seeing as the league median for high danger scoring shots against – 16.5% of the shots he faces are high danger chances. Seems like most goalies face around 14.5-16% – there are some outliers, like Shesterkin (17.3%) or Jordan Binnington, at a whopping 18% – but factored in for the fact that the Flyers are blocking shots at a league-leading rate? Shouldn't his high-danger SA be lower simply due to the fact that more shots are blocked? For example, the Isles and the Panthers may not be shot-blockers, but Ilya Sorokin faces only 14.5% HD SA; Bobrovsky faces 14.7%.
What I'm trying to get at is that while the Flyers block a number of low-danger or good scoring chances, they leave their rookie goaltender vulnerable to a higher average of high-danger shots through a lack of defense in other areas of the game, and simultaneously don't allow him to practice making saves and getting comfortable in the net. When he does face a shot, it's often high-danger: multiple opponents crashing the net, or a speedy forward on a breakaway. Ersson made his last save of the game at 3:23 of the 3rd period. The next shot he faced was over 6 in-game minutes later, and you won't believe what it was: a shorthanded 2-on-1 breakaway with Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck, and we all know how that one ended up. Man, six minutes. You get cold. Even a pro.
Much love for Sam Ersson. He looked pretty upset in the postgame. Being a Flyers goaltender's not for the faint of heart. You got this, bud.
Samuel Ersson stats during the Gauntlet:
5 out of 7 GS
2-1-2 record
.847 SV%
122 saves
17 goals against
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Ron Hextall: 37 wins (1986-87)
Pete Peeters: 29 wins (1979-80)
Sergei Bobrovsky: 28 wins (2010-11)
Antero Niittymaki: 23 wins (2005-06)
Pelle Lindbergh: 23 wins (1982-83)
Samuel Ersson: 21 wins (2023-24)
Brian Boucher: 20 wins (1999-2000)
Following in the footsteps of trailblazing rookies and giants alike, Samuel Ersson is living up to his role in net in a huge way, and a historic one. With today's 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins, he has displaced now-color commentator (and once, #33 for the Philadelphia Flyers) Brian Boucher for the title of 6th all-time wins by a Flyers rookie goalie. Ersson has the third-best GAA on this list, 2.66, preceded only by Boucher (1.91) and Bobrovsky (2.59), and the second-lowest total GA, 104. (Boucher, 65 GA, is first.) And also of note: he is tied for the second-most shutouts on this list, with Boucher again coming in first with 4 shutouts.
It's relevant to note that Boucher in his rookie season was the backup to starter John Vanbiesbrouck, who played 50 games to Boucher's 35. (Ersson has played 42 games this season, and only recently reached 50 total GP in the NHL on March 12, 2024, a 3-2 win against the San Jose Sharks.) The rest of the goaltenders who currently sit above Ersson were all essentially starters, though Niittymaki shared the burden pretty evenly with Robert Esche in the 2005-06 season (46 GP to 40 GP). Peeters and Hextall also took their STACKED Flyers squads to the Stanley Cup Finals (Peeters played with some of the most venerated Flyers of all time – Bobby Clarke, Rick MacLeish, Bill Barber; Hextall played behind a filthy 80s team; Tim Kerr, Mark Howe, Rick Tocchet, and the bruise brothers, Dave Brown and Daryl Stanley. Fun fact: Both goalies played with Brian Propp!) Those Flyers had been to the playoffs every season from 1973-1989. Those Flyers won in '74 and '75.
These 2023-24 Flyers came into the season with low expectations, and three years of missing the playoffs. But behind those low expectations is a team that's apparently capable of beating the best teams in the league. Of the 12 wins over top-10 clubs (BOS, VAN 2x, COL, CAR, DAL, FLA 2x, WPG 2x, EDM, TOR) Ersson was the winning goalie for 8 of those. At times, including March 23 v Boston, the team they beat was #1 in the league.
To reach 4th place in all time Flyers rookie goalies, and not just tie with Niittymaki and Lindbergh, Ersson needs three more wins. The Flyers have 11 games left in the season, and the Gauntlet is almost over, with the most recent three games (against the teams that currently sit 2nd, 6th, and 9th in the league) yielding five points in the standings. The future looks bright.
And tomorrow, Florida.
Sources
Mitchell Leff / Rookie Flyers / Flyers History / Jordan Hall
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YOU WILL NOT BELIEVE WHAT HAPPENED
MARCH 16, 2024
FLYERS @ BRUINS 6-5 LOSS (📸)
In tonight's game, Samuel Ersson was:
on the bench
and Felix Sandström had:
30 saves
6 goals against
.800 SV%
Well that was a game that happened. You could blame Sandström, like a dweeb, or you can look over on the other end of the ice and realize that media darling Jeremy Swayman had a .828 SV% tonight, because apparently sometimes the Flyers can actually score goals. Listen, tonight just wasn't a goalie night. A lot of our recent games haven't been goalie nights. A lot of our recent games haven't had three of our best defensemen, either, but Twitter trolls love a scapegoat. Sandström came up with some huge saves as well, particularly in the first two periods. When the defense broke down at the beginning of the third period, the Flyers nearly succeeded in rallying back from a three-goal deficit, but in the end came up short.
Farabee acknowledged in his postgame: "I feel bad for Felix, we kinda left him out to dry... it's a shame we didn't help him out tonight." It was true – had there been even a slightly tighter defense at some moments of the game, the Flyers might actually have won against the Bruins – but as it was, the better team took advantage of a major breakdown and handed Philadelphia its 7th consecutive loss against Boston. The Flyers haven't beat the Bruins since 2021.
They have one more chance this season on March 23.
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MARCH 23, 2024
FLYERS V BRUINS 3-2 W
📸
WE WON A MATINEE GAME AGAINST THE BRUINS I DON'T HAVE ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE BRAINPOWER TO WRITE AN ANALYSIS FOR THIS
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Want to apologize for the lack of Sam Ersson updates for the last two games – especially since we got points out of them! I haven't been able to watch many Flyers games recently :( hopefully more will come my way soon!
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MARCH 16, 2024
FLYERS @ BRUINS 6-5 LOSS (📸)
In tonight's game, Samuel Ersson was:
on the bench
and Felix Sandström had:
30 saves
6 goals against
.800 SV%
Well that was a game that happened. You could blame Sandström, like a dweeb, or you can look over on the other end of the ice and realize that media darling Jeremy Swayman had a .828 SV% tonight, because apparently sometimes the Flyers can actually score goals. Listen, tonight just wasn't a goalie night. A lot of our recent games haven't been goalie nights. A lot of our recent games haven't had three of our best defensemen, either, but Twitter trolls love a scapegoat. Sandström came up with some huge saves as well, particularly in the first two periods. When the defense broke down at the beginning of the third period, the Flyers nearly succeeded in rallying back from a three-goal deficit, but in the end came up short.
Farabee acknowledged in his postgame: "I feel bad for Felix, we kinda left him out to dry... it's a shame we didn't help him out tonight." It was true – had there been even a slightly tighter defense at some moments of the game, the Flyers might actually have won against the Bruins – but as it was, the better team took advantage of a major breakdown and handed Philadelphia its 7th consecutive loss against Boston. The Flyers haven't beat the Bruins since 2021.
They have one more chance this season on March 23.
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