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activistnewsnetwork · 5 years

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Is china the worlds “Rich uncle” ?

I have to say, this episode of RT America was probably my favorite so far, not because they were right, but because they just wrong enough and may ultimately have blind-sided winnie who has been in a bubble of his own.

Ahh, where to begin. Well for starters, the their first claim was actually correct. There have been signals all across the global economy of a recession on the horizon. So they launched into a tirade about how china bought US debt in 2008, which is true, although when he says “keeping the American economy afloat”, what he means is “keeping wall st. liquid”. They will conflate wall st with the US government several more times during this episode.

Another reminder, That was all to bail out private banks, not the US govt. The US govt was fine during the 2008 crisis, and the fact that bailing out the private sector banks and passing the lost gambles on to the US tax payer is very different from bailing out the US government, though that is an easy mistake to make since big money has been playing such an active role in US politics.

What they fail to realize is, a very significant number of US citizens, did not want to bail out the banks, which was not bailing out the US government. They just have a lot of lobbyists that make it appear as if they are the government, that is what unlimited campaign contributions are for.

This same relationship between big banks and the US government is also precisely why there were no attempts to fix any of the major financial mistakes, and the trump administration actually rolled back the vert few regulations that were designed to prevent that type of crisis from re-occurring. So yes, the next crash will be bigger, because it’s still carrying the debt from the last crash and fixed NOTHING.

Funny thing about that though, the American people are aware of this, and given how the recent elections have gone, things are not looking good for the neo-cons who are responsible. Buying those US securities is also what is responsible for much of china’s economic boom money. However, the primary reason china won’t do that again, is because they don’t have that kind of money anymore. As Sourabh Gupta said “That well is dry” but also as he said “That primarily benefited their (The Chinese) economy” see, because US govt debt is not “non performing”. I will explain what that means later in this article. However Mr. Gupta was very wrong on one of his assertions, that china has not been providing stimulus internally. The opposite is actually true, because their growth model is heavily dependent on investment, they have actually been addicted to economic stimulus packages, which is the mechanism by which they devalue their currency.

But more importantly:

The Chinese also have found novel ways to obfuscate their local debts with what are called “Local Government Financial Vehicles” which also happen to be where the Chinese people primarily invest their own money. This video explains the situation nicely https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5SE47Xjx2Q basically, china has had a vast real estate bubble, which is where they store the debt of not only the population, but also most of the local governments, this bubble has been building since before 2008, which is the basis for almost all Chinese debt, which is used to fund their foreign spending sprees. However, there is a catch. Empty homes do not generate revenue.

So those vast number of home loans, are called “non performing debt” because they don’t produce excess value. Which has lead to a slew of bankruptcies. That’s right, even chinese state owned corporations can go bankrupt, so hurry and swap debt! if you want some useless debt that only looks good on paper because the party has been pumping them full of finance to keep them afloat, which means they are profitable! On paper at least, since the state has 51% stake in the companies, so any money the party pumps in gets counted as revenu. And because of the peculiarities of the Chinese system, which is the land under the homes are leased and not owned by the private owners, the property technical depreciates in value instead of appreciating in value, as real estate in the west appreciates in value because they do not anticipate the homes being destroyed. This is why homes are different than cars, which depreciate rapidly, because cars have a “shelf life” which the Chinese system inadvertently creates for Chinese real estate. So china has been sitting on a steadily growing debt bomb of their own. So a credit default swap with the chinese would actually be worse than what happened in the US, because at least those bad loans get underwritten instead of evaporating. Which is how buying that debt paid off for the chineese and gave their economy the investment needed to fuel their rapid development since 2008.

But WAIT! There’s more, the faltering of the Chinese engine ( https://youtu.be/7gH-V3J2EuM?t=146 ) has already had wide ranging repercussions such as:

Africa, which has been china’s primary engine of growth in recent years, more because of the resources they provide than products they buy, has been hit hard due to chinese speculation, so much so that the world bank downgraded the credit ratings in south africa and several other countries have seen a drop in currency values, as they are tied to china who has been devaluing it’s currency as a tactic in the trade war.

This was some seriously bad news for Germany, which has significant investments in China. The situation became so bad, that Germany had to enact negative interest rates.

Given Germany’s leadership of much of EU decision making as one of the strongest economies, this does not bode well for the rest of Europe. I do wonder if this is a part of china’s Divide and Conquer stratagy.

I shudder to even imagine what this means for Italy, which earlier this year joined china’s belt and road initiative and started selling some 650 million Euro in “panda bonds” allowing Chinese investors to invest in Italian companies. This also allowed chinese investors to pile onto Italian bonds, which resulted in a temporary rally. The chinese seem to have been the winners in that as well. However Italy seems to be having second thoughts.

So now we get to the really, to me, funny part. This is where the RT broadcaster starts conflating Russia “rich uncle” which is indeed china, with the size of the American economy.

First, lets take into account the massive amount of money the US spends on it’s military, this money basically is being wasted, blown up with every 1.3 million dollar drone bomb, into tiny pieces that float away in the wind. Which is officially listed as 650 billion, but in reality is even larger than that. Now a look at the hard numbers according to https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/china/usa

China has a GDP of $1.3 trillion or $13,368,073M and the US has a GDP of more than 2 trillion or $20,580,200. That is by GDP alone and does not include the vast sums that US corporations have in over seas tax havens, like Ireland. Given the vast amounts of US debt is a result of tax cuts for corporations brought on by the Trump regime, and the next president is unlikely to be a neo-con like trump during a financial crisis, a lot of that debt is easy to solve with small tax increases. So the major difference between the US and Chinese economies is that, the US economy has a lot of tax revenues that it can access fairly easily with the right administration, however china does not have that kind of financial maneuverability because they already have high taxes and the government is 51% partner in all the companies. In china the companies are half of the governement and its revenues, in the US the private and public sectors are seperated, so that the public sector (The government) is insulated from private sector crises.

So I ask you, how in the actual hell can a country with an economy almost half the size of the US economy, be the rich uncle to the US ? The US only has 1 rich uncle, and his name is Sam, not Mao. But hey, that is what happens when you conflate the big banks with the US Gov. while simultaneously mixing up Russia’s rich uncle with Americas. Working at RT America must be confusing.

So while the US has lowered interest rates, that is true. Those rates are still not in negative territory, as is becoming popular in Europe. However the complaints about manufacturing job losses seems to fail to take into account the falling output of Chinese manufacturing. But even here, the devil is in the details. The primary reason the chinese have been able to undercut manufacturing in most developed countries is 2 fold, first and obviously a combination of economies of scale and industrial espionage (theft of intellectual property) but one thing people rarely think about is, shipping costs from china are very significant. However they have also been obscured because the Chinese government has been footing the bill for Chinese corporations for getting their products to western markets.

This is why they have been so eager to buy up various deep water ports all over the world (which incidentally are also a great way to smuggle in goods and drugs, hello new opium fentanyl war) But this is also what allows so many under performing Chinese companies to continue to be profitable.

In essence the policy of paying for shipping for their own corporations has enabled many under performing companies to remain competitive at great cost to the CCP. So the policy has cost the party vast sums of money. So Gupta is correct on another thing, that many countries will start being more protectionist and making strategic investments in advanced manufacturing.

The impact of 5G however, is fairly minimal, at least in the EU, where data caps of 6 – 10gb are common. What does it matter if you can download at 1gigabit speeds if you can only download 10gb ? So you can very quickly run over your data limit and be overcharged out the ass ? (my personal gripe after having toured Europe for 4 months) I mean, you could get cell service from “Three” which has the highest data caps of any carrier in the EU, but incidentally is also a Chinese owned teclo which not only does censorship, in the EU via a telco provider. But a vetted source has also revealed that “three” has been actively used for espionage against activists. So sure, you can have data, so long as you are willing to let the Chinese intercept all your communications, in Europe. Good job catching that European regulators, who would be lucky if they could get their head up their ass in the first place.

And then there is the pièce de résistance ( wait for it …)

Trump says not only is he going to leave the troops in syria which he had promised to pull out, but that they would be protecting the oil infrastructure in eastern Syrian region known informally as “Rojava” what is funny here, is that RT continually refers to this action as “Taking syrias oil” when in actuality, they are only securing the oil fields, in the same way US soldiers are securing the oil fields in Saudi Arabia. This is creating the stability to enable their allies in the region, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to then rebuild that infrastructure and sell that oil, possibly to the US, but I am sure some European powers will be equally interested. If the Syrians in the autonomous region which are re-purposing what was previously ISIS infrastructure, to not only rebuild Syria but also deny those resources to the remnants of ISIS,

That is not “Taking” the resources. Those resources will be legitimately sold by the individuals who have been occupying that land for over 100 years, and lets not forget the US military is there BECAUSE ASSAD WAS GASSING THE KURDS, like several times. which is not only a human rights violation, but also an international war crime. This behavior strikes at the very heart of the legitimacy of the Assad government, which the people in this region were rebelling against in the first place, before ISIS took over. Which was also a result of the many failures of the Assad government. So the US forces are there as guarantors of peace and also to stem the tide of immigrants into Europe, while also providing support for reconstruction efforts which will enable many who fled and/or are being re-housed in the DMZ in the 30km corridor between Turkey and Syra, to have a place to return to. So the SDF may be the only people with legitimate claims to those oil fields. And Rojava has the only functioning democracy in all of Syria. You really expect the west to not defend a fledgling democracy which has a chance of solving their own migrant crisis ?

Psh they will probably try to find some way to blame this on AI. It’s full spectrum y’all.

Finally, an explanation!

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activistnewsnetwork · 5 years

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Alaska’s Sea Ice Completely Melted for First Time in Recorded History

“Even if we can’t escape its consequences, it is not too late to escape the mindset that brought us here.” —Alice O’Keeffe, reviewing This Is Not a Drill

Alaska, the largest US state, with a coastline almost as large as the rest of the continental united states itself, has reached a new low of zero percent sea ice for the first time in recorded history. But the indigenous people, are not alone in their grief.

The country of Iceland has held a funeral for its first glacier lost to the climate crisis. The once massive Okjökull glacier, now completely gone, has been commemorated with a plaque that reads: “A letter to the future. Ok is the first Icelandic glacier to lose its status as a glacier. In the next 200 years all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path. This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it.”

This reality is reverberating across the globe, far beyond Iceland. Even when no literal funeral is being held, we are, in a sense, witnessing an ongoing funeral for the world we once knew.

July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth since record keeping began in 1880. Nine out of the 10 hottest Julys ever recorded have occurred since 2005, and July was the 43rd consecutive July in a row, to register temperatures above the 20th century average.

In Greenland, scientists were stunned by how rapidly the ice sheet is melting, as it was revealed the ice there was not expected to melt like this until 2070. The melt rate has been called “unprecedented,” as the all-time single-day melt record was broken in August as the ice sheet lost a mind-bending 12.5 billion tons of water in one day. It is worth remembering that the Greenland ice sheet contains enough ice to increase global sea levels by 20 feet, and it is now predicted that it will lose more ice this year than ever before. The massive amount of freshwater mixing with the warmer salt water has be so vast, this it has started to disrupt the north atlantic current. And because this current also affects the winds, because of it’s size. This seems to be one of the key contributing factors to the ‘heat dome‘ events that have been plaguing Europe for the past 2 summers. These heat domes can become a massive driver of extreme weather events, because they create larger differences in temperature, which is the engine of extreme weather systems. Scientists have yet to confirm this possible feedback loop which is the direct result of melting glaciers, which have seen unprecedented acceleration.

Also for the first time in recorded history, Alaska’s sea ice has melted completely away. That means there was no sea ice whatsoever within 150 miles of its shores, according to the National Weather Service, as the northernmost state cooked under record-breaking heat through the summer.

Earth

A recent UN report estimates 2 billion people are already facing moderate to severe food insecurity, due largely to the warming planet. The other contributing factors are conflict and economic stagnation, Extreme weather events and shifting weather patterns are a large and growing contributor to this crisis, which is sure to escalate over time.

Another recent study, titled “Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient,” showed that many animals are no longer able to adjust quickly enough to the climate crisis. While birds are laying their eggs earlier as temperatures and conditions change, and are doing what they can to coax their chicks to hatch sooner, it is still not enough to keep apace with the dramatically shifting climate. Many more extinctions are on the horizon.

Speaking of, Beluga whales in the Arctic are now clearly in a downward spiral toward their demise, due largely to climate crisis impacts, according to another study. Warming waters, lack of food, and pollution are taking their toll on the embattled whales. Over the past 20 years, their growth rates have been declining, which means their ability to forage for food is now also compromised.

It is interesting to see even mainstream outlets like People Magazine now reporting on climate grief, which the medical community has already been doing for quite some time, and expects to see a dramatic ramping up of climate-disruption-related mental health issues in the future.

In Greenland, residents are already traumatized by climate impacts, as they are coping with the reality that their traditional ways of life are clearly on the way out. Courtney Howard, board president of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, told The Guardian that she believes the climate crisis is causing worsening states of mental and physical health around the world, and says these issues will become some of the most important of our time. “Temperature change is magnified in circumpolar regions,” she told The Guardian. “There is no question Arctic people are now showing symptoms of anxiety, ‘ecological grief’ and even post-traumatic stress related to the effects of climate change.”

In the financial realms, a leading economic historian warned recently that the climate crisis could very well become the trigger for the next global financial crisis by way of causing instability and massive disruptions in markets.

Distressingly, a recently published study warned that a new super bug which erupted at the same time on three continents may well have been brought about from warming temperatures. The study pointed out how a drug-resistant fungal disease has now been made more prevalent by existing on a warming planet.

A recent report from Canada warned that British Columbia could see “catastrophic” consequences from climate disruption-related events in the next three decades. These include more severe wildfire seasons, increasingly intense and longer heat waves, water shortages, and storm surges across the province. Along with already experiencing disruptions

Speaking of Canada, that country’s Pediatric Society recently warned that children’s health is expected to be increasingly negatively affected by climate-disruption impacts, including things like air pollution and heat stress.

Water

Drought-induced blackouts are now besetting the people of Zimbabwe, where some places are seeing 18 hours per day without electricity. Imagine that in the summer heat. Dams providing hydro power lack water. Power blackouts are spreading.

In Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital city, the taps have run dry, affecting more than 2 million people, who have been trying to cope with not having access to municipal drinking water.

In India, a stunning 1 million people were displaced and at least 270 killed by severe flooding from heavier than usual monsoon rains.

Not all the news is bad though, China has actually seen an increase in rainfall, amazingly just in the areas with large farmlands. Well, not so amazingly, this unilateral geoengineering has had some, lets say interesting side effects. While also being the primary driver of Chinese development of Xinjiang because the home of this weather modification system mostly spans the Tibetan platue, from where their chosen leader, the Dalai Lama, still lives in exile in India. And has led to the human rights violations of some 1 million ugihur. But hey, that is just the cost of doing business, as is the results of such massive amounts of sodium iodide changing the composition of the atmosphere, and in doing so, the remnants of this climate modification system are seen in the record breaking downpours that have become the norm across the entire equator, following mostly the path of the Subtropical jet steam, which just happens to pass right over the Chinese weather modification system. This has lead to, a more or less yearly season of extreme weather, but because cheesiness state capitalism is successful at externalizing these costs, which actually enable them to extend their infrastructure footprint. Kind of like the “hero” firefighter who is a pyromaniac for the glory. Truly a win-win. But WAIT! there’s more!

There is a theory going around that at least 2 earthquakes, occurring on 7-Sep-2017 and 19-Sep-2017which occurred after record setting rainfall in Texas from hurricanes Hurricanes Harvey Aug 2017 and Irma in Sep 2017.

A similar occurrence happened in Japan after Typhoon Jebi in Aug 26 – sept 9 2018, the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake was on Sept 5th 2018. My conjecture is that the trillions of gallons of water was enough weight to slightly depress the earths crust, causing the slippage between tectonic plates, which triggered the earthquakes.

Back in the US., New York City’s summer has served as a preview of things to come, as an extreme heat wave coupled with flash flooding beset the iconic city. So cheesiness unilateral geoengineering has in many ways, turned the atmosphere into a sponge, and since they are not themselves contributing as much to the water evaporation, that water has to come from somewhere, and so, dumroll please

On the other end of the water spectrum, a recent study published in Science Advances warned that mega droughts will likely beset the U.S. Southwest within decades. The study stated that the mega droughts are “almost assured,” and will be on a scale not seen since medieval times.

And nothing is better for the new normal of year round fire season. See, externalizing costs is fine.

At the same time, by 2050, another report warned that “snow droughts” will become far more common across the western U.S. This is critical, in that it compounds the aforementioned impending drought crisis, as mountain snow-pack is vital to providing water into the spring and summer.

A recent and critically important study showed that one quarter of the total global population across 17 countries is already affected by extreme water stress. Lebanon, Qatar and Israel/Palestine top a list of places with the worst water shortages, as the growing climate crisis threatens more “day zeroes” — days where major cities will literally run out of water.

Meanwhile, sea levels continue their inevitable and accelerating rise. In the U.S., a recent report showed how 21 beach towns, including Miami Beach, Galveston, Atlantic City and Key West, will soon be underwater.

Speaking of Galveston, the state of Texas is looking toward Dutch expertise for assistance in how to construct what would be the nation’s most expensive and most ambitious coastal barrier for protection against intensifying hurricanes. The Netherlands has been devising ways to protect massive parts of its low-lying country against the ocean for centuries. Now the skills it has cultivated are, increasingly relevant worldwide.

Meanwhile, the oceans continue to warm as they absorb the brunt of the heat human activity is adding to the atmosphere, and the warming waters are literally pushing Pacific salmon to the brink of their ability to survive, according to another report.

Distressingly, a recently published study showed that unexpected marine heat waves are now becoming the norm rather than the exception. Which seems bad for the fish, however, these coral reefs are also home to many of the algae which produce 50% of the oxygen that we breath. They are quickly out competed by Toxic algea which thrive in higher acidity. That almost feels like a metaphor for current state of journalism.

Alpine mountaineering routes are disintegrating as glaciers and ice fields melt in the Alps. The ice-reliant climbing routes in the mountains are tumbling down and melting away faster than anyone expected. Along with parts of siberia and canada as well, which has been leading to vast releases of methane. Which is a canary in the coal mine for the Calthrate gun Hypothisis.

Greenland experienced a record heat wave in the middle of this summer, which dramatically accelerated the melting of the ice sheet, meaning its contributions to sea level rise are in the process of accelerating as well.

Meanwhile, scientists have expressed alarm and shock about the fact that the permafrost across the Canadian Arctic is thawing out 70 years sooner than previously predicted.

Things are so dire in the icy realms of Earth that the country of Iceland is now preparing for how it will cope without any more ice … something that country relies upon for its identity, businesses, government and very existence.

Fire

These stunning satellite photos show an Arctic burning up in front of our eyes. In Alaska alone, at the time of this writing, at least 1.6 million acres have burned from at least 100 wildfires this summer. Wildfires in Siberia could well burn into October when the first snows fall, as at least 6.7 million acres have burned across Russia.

Another report showed that, due to climate disruption, wildfires in California have already become 500 percent larger than they were since the 1970s.

Canadian media are reporting that forests that have been scorched in the Pacific Northwest are not growing back as expected. This brings into question numerous species of trees’ ability to regenerate as the fires get increasingly hot, burn longer, and scorch longer areas.

At the same time, another report reaffirmed the fact that even the rainy Northwest is now facing the inevitable increased risk of wildfires due to higher temperatures, increasing drought and lower humidity.

Air

By 2050, Florida will have more days that feel like 100 degrees Fahrenheit (100°F) than any other state in the U.S., according to a recent study. Washington D.C. currently averages one week per year of 100-degree days, while by 2050 that could rise to two months. The same study warned that climate disruption will expose millions of people across the U.S. to “off-the-charts” extreme heat.

Meanwhile, Europe sizzled under a record-breaking heat wave this summer, as heat from the Sahara baked the continent and temperature records toppled en mass. There are far too many records to name from that heatwave, but notable was the fact that Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands recorded their highest temperatures ever during Europe’s second major summer heatwave.

In Canada, the far northern community of Nunavut saw warmer temperatures than the city of Victoria, far to its south. According to CBC News, “the source of the Arctic beach weather is a large current of air that somehow found its way north from the U.S. southeast” — a much more common occurrence as warming intensifies.

Denial and Reality

Ever busy denying the crisis, in the last month the Trump administration buried a large climate disruption response plan, as revealed by Politico. The outlet revealed how the Agriculture Department prevented the release of an already completed and sweeping plan about how the government should best respond to the climate crisis.

Meanwhile, in what could have been a slip of the tongue, Trump’s Energy Secretary Rick Perry said during a recent nationally televised interview, “The climate is changing. Are we part of the reason? Yeah, it is. I’ll let people debate on who’s the bigger problem here.”

It’s not just the Trump administration that’s fueling denial. It was also revealed how DNC Chair Tom Perez introduced a resolution in an attempt to kill a climate debate among the Democratic presidential candidates.

Nevertheless, reality has a way of not going away, despite human efforts at denial.

A recent report showed that the climate crisis is already well along in causing childhood deaths and the stunting of growth in Australia and across the Pacific. Other impacts on kids include lowered cognitive capacity and higher susceptibility to the spread of diseases.

And, to keep all of this in perspective, as a final reality check, the burning of fossil fuels reached an all-time record last year, according to oil giant BP.

For perspective on the rate of acceleration now baked into the system, half of all fossil fuels used by humans have been burned since just 1990. Many more consequences are lurking just around the corner: It takes at least 10 years before we begin to see the impacts of the CO2 once the fuels are burned. But on the plus side, at least there are short term sources which can be stopped with military force if nessicary. And that is how I learned to stop worrying and love the AI.

This article was primarily authored by By Madeline Fitzgerald

and origially appeared on Time magazine.

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activistnewsnetwork · 5 years

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For the Women Who Run With the Wolves.

My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people.

You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet, I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement.

I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind.

Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless.

In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails.

We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Didn’t you say you were a believer? Didn’t you say you pledged to listen to a voice greater? Didn’t you ask for grace? Don’t you remember that to be in grace means to submit to the voice greater?

Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good.

What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale.

One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these – to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity.

Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do.

There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate.

The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for.

By Clarissa Pinkola Estes

American poet, post-trauma specialist and Jungian psychoanalyst, author of Women Who Run With the Wolves.

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activistnewsnetwork · 5 years

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Huge Russian Ammo Explosion Sends Shockwaves for Miles, leaving many arms control concerns.

An accident at a Russian Army ammunition depot turned catastrophic today as a series of explosions killed one soldier and hurled shrapnel more than nine miles. At least eight others are reported wounded with windows in a nearby town blown out by the shockwave. The incident, still ongoing, is located outside the Siberian city of Achinsk.

The explosion generated a mushroom cloud over the blast site and sent shrapnel flying as far as 9.3 miles away. Government officials ordered the evacuation of 11,000 civilians living nearby, and the airspace near the site was closed to air traffic.

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According to TASS, a Russian government-owned news organization, the explosion took place at the Logistics Support Center of the Central Military District. Russian soldiers were working in an ammunition storage warehouse handling propellant charges—bags of explosive propellant shoved behind artillery shells in howitzers and other artillery pieces—when somehow something went very, very wrong.

In addition to the propellant charges, the site was also home to 25,000 artillery shells. The Siberian Times reports the Russian Army involved is the “74008 military unit” and that soldiers of the unit were stuck in a bomb shelter as the explosions continued.

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#Rusya’nın #Achinsk Kentinde Patlayan #Mühimmat Deposuna Ait Bir Görüntü

A post shared by Takipler Davet Amaçlıdır (@grinews) on Aug 5, 2019 at 10:35am PDT

TASS further reports that two “disposal sites” were still burning. This suggests the munitions were old or obsolete and were being disposed of. Russia inherited large stocks of weapons and ammunition after the fall of the Soviet Union, much of which was already old. TASS also noted that the warehouse where the explosion took place was one of the oldest in Russia and scheduled for demolition in 2022.

Siberia is currently the location of several large forest fires, but the already taxed Russian government is sending two firefighting trains to the explosion site. Moscow is also sending two Uran-14 firefighting robots. Uran-14 is equipped with high pressure nozzles that spray water a distance of up to 180 feet and a dozer blade capable of shoving up to 10 tons of debris. The Uran-14 can also be configured to act as an engineer mineclearing vehicle in wartime.

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Вибухи на складах з боєприпасами дісталися й Росії. Вибух і пожежа сталися на артилерійському складі військової частини, що розташовується між Ачинськом і Назаровим. На цьому складі зберігалися близько 40 тисяч снарядів калібру 125 і 152 міліметри. Під час інциденту осколкові поранення отримали щонайменше чотири людини. Наразі відбувається евакуацію жителів всіх населених пунктів в радіусі 20 кілометрів. Очевидці, кажуть, що стовпи диму видно майже в усіх частинах Ачинська. Окрім того, через вибухи зруйновано кілька будинків #Achinsk #Россия #Russia #24канал

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There has also been speculation that this explosion could be used to divert, or to obscure what has already been diverted, weapons and other explosives to current conflict zones, mostly focusing on the possibility of some prototype being deploy instead of incorrect deconstruction of fissile material. However these are pure speculations from anonymous sources. Which only serve to highlight the importance enforcement mechanisms of treaties like the INF.

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activistnewsnetwork · 5 years

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Award, share, verify: Why ‘edubadges’ are the future of certification in online education

by Mindel van de Laar

I’m involved in an exciting pilot project on ‘Open Educational Badging’ – and I must admit that it’s scary because I barely understand ICT, especially coding. Still, the participants in the ‘Evidence-Based Research Methods’ (EPRM) programme that I direct will be awarded online badges that can be linked to their social network profiles, and show that they successfully completed the courses.

You may wonder how an ICT-averse person like me ends up in an ICT-innovative educational pilot programme. I guess it’s my drive to innovate within educational programmes that made that happen, rather than the ICT element per se. Innovation aimed to be beneficial for my students, mainly because EPRM is a programme designed for mid-career professionals that does not fit a regular format. We realise that those professionals cannot easily quit their jobs for three months to join a training course abroad, so we developed the programme in a blended format, with two modules in Maastricht and three modules online. For these programmes to work well, we need to stay on the frontline of development, including online learning development. When the question came if I wanted to join the pilot, run by SURF – the Dutch organisation for ICT cooperation in Education and Research – and see if we can grant badges to our EPRM participants, I didn’t hesitate. If there’s value for students, that’s all that matters.

But why should students care at all about ‘edubadges’? After all, we already offer them paper certificates upon completion, so what’s the added value of an online edubadge? It turns out there are several advantages of digital badges compared to paper certificates. First of all, badges allow participants to communicate their completion in a way that’s verifiable on their social network, without having to share papers. Each open badge contains all the metadata about a student’s achievement within the badge itself. Open badges can be shared between online portfolios, and if students earn badges from more than one place, they can keep them all together.

Translating to our specific EPRM pilot project, EPRM accounts for five modules. All can be obtained within one cycle of the programme, but participants can choose to spread the workload over three years. If each module is awarded with a badge, the profile of the participant will display their advancement within EPRM without having to complete the whole course. In addition, open badges are more transparent than paper certificates, as they link back more easily to the issuer of the credential (our institute) and to any relevant standards. Papers can be printed, copied or falsified; the ‘valorisation’ of the badge is built within the badge-issuing software. And although educational organisations do not issue the badge themselves, they certainly endorse the knowledge and skills represented by the badge. In future that could mean that all employers that found our EPRM programme useful can endorse our EPRM badges, and participants aiming to work at one of those places would know that there is value for them in enrolling.

Moving beyond the benefits for our own institutional participants, the value of edubadges could be even greater for students who are unable to pay for our programmes. Dutch universities generally support open access because science is not a luxury good and should not be available only to those studying at well-endowed schools. As per the Universal Declaration of Human Rights: “Everyone has the right… to share in scientific advancement and its benefits”. With open access journals, open access repositories, open access software, and now edubadges, educators and researchers can make the output of higher education much more accessible to a much wider audience. It’s not hard to imagine that open badges have a more important use for students who are unable to pay for certified courses and still need accreditation/acknowledgement for their online learning activities and the skills they’ve mastered. From another angle, sending paper certificates to less developed regions can be both time-consuming and costly, as these certificates do not always reach their intended recipient. Extending online badge provision to our open access education could be a great way to increase the use of edubadges; in fact, we’re working on a project to integrate badges in our open access ‘Community of Learning for African’ PhD students.

Early on, inspired by the drive and enthusiasm of Ilse Sistermans at Maastricht University library, I was ready to go full speed ahead. But in a pilot, this is easier said than done. Institutions had to be aligned, we had to learn how to create and provide badges, and we had to think about all the administrative steps to ensure the badges create and maintain their value. We also know that within government ICT activities, most projects tend to take longer than planned, and costs are often higher than anticipated (Niels Groen, 2015). A small-scale pilot serves us well as it informs us on all the hurdles there are to clear (and there have been several already). But we are moving forward towards the milestone of issuing our first badge. At this point we designed online, open badges (both the visual, as well as descriptive backend of the badge) and we got the design approved by both Maastricht University and United Nations University. Our next step is to offer these badges to our online course participants, in particular the group that completed their courses in the period January-April 2019. On 18 July 2019, we successfully awarded the first badges to our pilot participant Agata Petrelli. This took us about four hours and a lot of patience from both Agata, the SURF support team and the EPRM team. And now we will roll out to all participants, slotted to take place this summer. With a bit of perseverance this should be feasible. Once that milestone is reached, all participants in EPRM will be offered the option of a badge for every module they complete.

Apply for our next Evidence-Based Research Methods course by 15 August 2019.

More information about our Community of Learning for Africa (CoLA) can be found here.

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A review of the UN Security Council Resolution 2482, on Organized Crime and Counter-Terrorism.

This article was authored by Fionnuala Ní Aoláin

Last month, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2482, which addresses the relationship between organized crime and counter-terrorism. While the resolution was being drafted, as Special Rapporteur on Counter-Terrorism and Human Rights, I articulated some of my overarching concerns about the resolution and the precedent of linking organized crime and counter-terrorism in a symbiotic regulatory framework. Now that the resolution is publicly available, we can assess its novelty, evaluate the extent to which the resolution includes meaningful references to human rights, and examine whether the resolution goes beyond existing treaty frameworks and language in producing new pathways to legal obligations for States.

The Preamble (consisting of 19 paragraphs) to the resolution is broad and expansive in its articulation of the intersection of terrorism and organized crime.

Expressing its concern that terrorists can benefit from organized crime, whether domestic or transnational, as a source of financing or logistical support, recognizing that the nature and scope of the linkages between terrorism and organized crime, whether domestic or transnational, vary by context, and emphasizing the need to coordinate efforts at the local, national, subregional, regional, and international levels to respond to this challenge, in accordance with international law, including by promoting international legal cooperation, where relevant.

Acknowledging, in this regard, that terrorists can benefit from organized crime, whether domestic or transnational, such as the trafficking in arms, drugs, artefacts, cultural property and trafficking in persons, as well as the illicit trade in natural resources including gold and other precious metals and stones, minerals, charcoal and oil, illicit trafficking in wildlife and other crimes that affect the environment, as well as from the abuse of legitimate commercial enterprise, non-profit organizations, donations, crowdfunding and proceeds of criminal activity, including but not limited to kidnapping for ransom, extortion a d bank robbery, as well as from transnational organized crime at sea …

The Preamble describes a landscape of intersection between terrorism and organized crime, which includes reference to the relevant treaty law on organized crime (the U.N. Convention against Transnational Organized Crime) and a firm affirmation of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of States, which gives all States the primary responsibility for countering terrorism, violent extremism and organized crime. This also clearly nods to the reality that there is no agreed international law definition of terrorism, violent extremism or organized crime. As a result, States get to define these terms as they choose (broadly) at the domestic level, with no transparent oversight as to whether those definitions comport with their international law treaty obligations, particularly in the human rights arena.

Various organs of U.N. and international enforcement, oversight and norm-creation bodies are mentioned in the preamble to this resolution, including the Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, the International Tracing Instrument, UNODC (OP4), UN Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice (PP2), and UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs (PP2), UNCTED (OP22 & 23), the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and its Global Network of FATF-style regional bodies (OP 3 & 9), as well as the Global Counterterrorism Forum (GCTF)(PP19).

However, not a single human rights oversight body, and the specific normative standards of such bodies, is mentioned in the text. This fits a general pattern in Security Council counter-terrorism resolutions, whereby counter-terrorism bodies within and outside of the U.N. system get mentioned as entities and normative sources of law to which States are encouraged to pay attention to and enforce. Meanwhile, human rights bodies or other relevant international law entities — whether the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Office of the Special Rapporteur or the International Criminal Court — are not equally exhorted, with the obvious message that the oversight, review and obligation of those bodies count for less than the compendium of counter-terrorism entities (some with clearly less legitimate basis in international law and practice).

The resolution’s preamble makes a welcome reference to human rights and international law, specifically that

“any measures taken to counter-terrorism must comply with [State] obligations under international law, international human rights law.”

In this regard, the preamble also acknowledges the link between rule of law deficits and cycles of radicalization. However, despite this welcome paragraph among 19 others in the preamble, there is a notable absence of explicit, detailed and meaningful references to obligations under international human rights law where the text and the measures being supported would clearly call for such precision.

In total the phrase “human rights” appears four times in a resolution with far-reaching implications for the protection and promotion of human rights domestically if States implemented the recommendations. The absence of sustained integration of human rights is exacerbated by distinct, detailed and highly technical references to “Recommendations” of non-treaty based entities, explicit calls to States to review domestic legislation and make unambiguously defined changes to domestic criminal law (with no mention of ensuring a rights-balancing or review exercise is carried out in parallel), calls to States to strengthen border management, to establish mechanisms at the domestic level to enable broad international cooperation across multiple spheres of regulation, and much more.

The point is clear, Security Council resolutions can be explicit and detailed on all the recommendations, sources, technical advice, and expert capacity that lie with U.N. counter-terrorism entities and their progeny, but they are entirely silent on the necessary detail required to protect human rights adequately when such measures are adopted, despite a plethora of treaty sources, jurisprudence, soft law and established U.N. entities to include in the conversation. I have previously outlined (A/73/361), that the silence is not an oversight but a sustained marginalization of meaningful human rights integration in the nuts and bolts of Security Council work in the counter-terrorism arena.

Where human rights are mentioned, the phrase is used narrowly e.g. human rights obligations are mentioned in OP15(c) with respect to the implementation of Airline Passenger Information (API) and Passenger Name Record (PNR) obligations (as also mandated by UNSCR 2396); and OP 20 with regard to preventing radicalization in prisons. In each case, what is given is a generic clause highlighting the importance of compliance of counter-terrorism measures with international law obligations, in particular human rights law, humanitarian law and refugee law. But a generic reference to human rights in these contexts does not illuminate the specific human rights in question (privacy, family life, non-refoulement, due process). If we can assume (as the resolution does) that States need explicit detail in order to understand their counter-terrorism obligations, it should equally be assumed that understanding their precise human rights obligations will not happen by osmosis – unless those obligations and implications are equally and explicitly spelled out.

In my view as Special Rapporteur, providing more clarity as to the scope of human rights obligations, including through the inclusion of human rights benchmarking and related assessment, as well as oversight tools, would represent a considerable improvement and would facilitate compliance with relevant standards in the context of domestic implementation processes. It is also telling that the resolution concludes (Operative Paragraph (OP) 25) by requesting that the U.N. Secretary-General submit a report within 12 months to the Security Council by UNOCT and UNODC and references that “relevant entities to provide information.” Not a single U.N. human rights entity is considered a “relevant” entity worthy of explicit mention, despite the obvious and significant human rights implications of the desired actions outlined in the resolution.

Positively, it is welcome to see the inclusion of a humanitarian exemption clause (similar to OP 24 of UNSCR 2462) in OP 16 of the resolution. I welcome this amendment and consider the inclusion of an exemption clause in a counter-terrorism resolution of the Security Council a significant step forward. However, similar to other humanitarian actors, I remain concerned about the limited scope of the exemption clause as it only applies to “exclusively humanitarian activities” that are “carried out in accordance with international humanitarian law.” The clause would not encompass a number of activities conducted by humanitarian organizations, including activities that certain States may not consider “exclusively humanitarian” in nature, such as international humanitarian law training to armed groups as well as other legitimate humanitarian activities not governed by the law of armed conflict.

As Special Rapporteur, I have advocated for the use of precise and defined terminology in the counter-terrorism context, consistent with the principles of legality and proportionality. The absence of such precision creates conditions under which counter-terrorism norms can be abused domestically, undermining human rights protections for individuals and groups. It seems to me that the scope of this resolution is a broad one, also due to the consistent introduction of the qualifier “whether domestic or transnational” after the term “organized crime.” In plain reading this essential definitional foundation to the resolution implies that its scope goes beyond that of the Transnational Organized Crime Convention.

While the Convention is repeatedly referenced in the text, it is apparent on close reading that the resolution does not seem to consistently adopt the terminology used in the Convention or provide definitions for terms such as “serious criminal offence” or “organized criminal network/ group.” The lack of definition and the gaps with the Organized Crime Convention may have serious ramifications if the recommendations are implemented domestically as proposed. The absence of a list of definitions in this resolution gives effective carte blanche to States to define these terms as they will, but on the basis of compliance with a Security Council resolution – thus legitimizing and expanding counter-terrorism mandates domestically in ways that simply do not accord with the rule of law or human rights protections in practice.

It remains somewhat obvious to say that terrorism and organized crime are subject to different legal regimes. And, in general, as I have pointed out elsewhere, terrorism regulation in many States constitutes a de facto exceptional legal regime, which is growing larger and more ambitious by the year. Blending in an opaque opening to the inclusion of “organized crime” in the counter-terrorism arena will likely result in the expansion of exceptionality at the national level.

The move also foregoes the basic assumption that all else being equal, the ordinary law of States should be the preferred and natural point of regulation for both organized crime and terrorism. Furthermore, I remain concerned (A/73/361, paras. 46-49) that this resolution continues a pattern of ill-conceived blending of different and distinct legal regimes, specifically a failure to separate out and address the law that applies to armed conflict and the international legal regime that has developed post-9/11 to address terrorism. Thus, references to “armed and terrorist groups” in the resolution raise concerns about blending terrorism and armed conflict and thereby undermining the protective regime established under international humanitarian law in ways that undermine the usefulness of these legal regimes to do the work they were intended to do.

In conclusion, while this is not a Chapter VII resolution under the UN Charter activating a range of powers and resources for the Security Council and concurrent obligations for States, we should not underestimate its influence. Moreover, the creep of conflating armed conflict, terrorism and organized crime does not lend legal clarity to complex legal and political challenges. In the long run, it may, in fact, make solving these problems using the law far more difficult.

Image: The Security Council unanimously adopts resolution 2482 calling on Member States to strengthen a global response to linkages between international terrorism and organized crime. UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

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Lake discovered thousands of feet high in the Alps, in ‘truly alarming’ sign of climate change

A mountaineer has captured the formation of an “alarming” lake high in the French Alps after glacial snow melted in the intense heatwave that gripped central Europe in late June.

Bryan Mestre was shocked to discover the large pool of water at an altitude of 11,100ft (3,400m) in the Mount Blanc mountain range – claiming the unusual sight was a worrying sign.

Scientists have warned that heatwaves in Europe are becoming increasingly frequent, with the intense temperatures linked to climate change.

© Provided by Independent Digital News & Media Limited “Time to sound the alarm,” said Mr Mestre. “Only 10 days of extreme heat were enough to collapse, melt and form a lake at the base of the Dent du Géant and the Aiguilles Marbrées.”

He added: “This is truly alarming … glaciers all over the world are melting at an exponential speed.”

Sharing the image on Instagram, the French rock climber said he took the photo on 28 June – only 10 days after fellow mountaineer Paul Todhunter captured the same area covered in snow.

“Needless to say, the lake was a real surprise,” Mr Mestre told the IFLScience website.

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Time to sound the alarm… The problem here? These two pictures were taken only 10 days apart… It was taken earlier on June 28th, the second one was shared by Paul Todhunter. Only 10 days of extreme heat were enough to collapse, melt and form a lake at the base of the Dent du Géant and the Aiguilles Marbrées That I know, this is the first time anything like that as ever happened. Southern Europe and the Alps have been struck by a massive heatwave with temperature ranging from 40 to 50 degrees, the below 0 freezing altitude was as high as 4,700m (15,400ft) and during the day temperatures as high as 10 degrees Celsius (50 F) were felt on top of Mont Blanc 4,810m (15,780ft)… This is truly alarming glaciers all over the world are melting at an exponential speed… My interview with @mblivetv can be found here! https://montblanclive.com/radiomontblanc/article/massif-du-mont-blanc-un-petit-lac-se-forme-a-plus-de-3000-m-daltitude-48453 #climbing #climber #climb #frenchalps #savoie #savoiemontblanc #hautesavoie #outdoors #globalwarming #mountaineering #mountains #mountain #montagne #montaña #montagna #montanhismo #mountaineer #alpinist #alpinism #alpinisme #alpinismo #alpi #alps #environment #savetheplanet #climatechange #montblanc @patagonia @beal.official @millet_mountain @blueiceclimbing

A post shared by Bryan Mestre (@bryanthealpinist) on Jun 30, 2019 at 3:10am PDT

“It’s located in the 3,400 to 3,500-meter area. You’re supposed to find ice and snow at this altitude, not liquid water. Most of the time when we stay for a day at this altitude, the water in our water bottles starts freezing.”

“I have been up there a fair amount of times, in June, July and even August, and I have never seen liquid water up there,” he added.

Glaciologist Ludovic Ravanel previously noticed a lake appearing high in the French Alps in 2015 and linked its formation to global warming.

According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), last month was the hottest June ever recorded on Earth.

Data released by the satellite agency showed Europe’s average temperatures were more than 2C above normal, and temperatures were between 6C and 10C above normal over most of France, Germany and northern Spain during the final days of the month.

This article originally appeared on The Independent by: Adam Forrest

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UN chief praises impact of Palestine refugee agency as ‘our common success’, at key pledging conference

The work of the UN body responsible for assisting Palestine refugees, UNRWA, which has allowed millions of children to receive an education that promotes UN values of human rights and tolerance, as well as democracy and conflict resolution, should be viewed “not only as our common responsibility, but as our common success”, said Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday.

The UN chief was speaking at the opening of the 2019 pledging conference for UNRWA, officially the Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, alongside the President of the General Assembly, María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, and the agency’s Commissioner-General, Pierre Krähenbühl.

Mr. Guterres vaunted the accomplishments of the agency over its almost 70-year existence. As well as running more than 700 schools, providing free education for over half a million Palestine refugee children, UNRWA maintains high-quality and cost-effective health care services; runs emergency and social services; and provides food aid, which includes meeting the needs of one million Palestine refugees in Gaza.

‘Cost-effective’ aid for Palestine refugees faces ‘serious funding shortfall’

The presence of conference delegates in New York, sent a powerful message that they are convinced of UNRWA’s value, and that they are willing to act, by pledging generous donations to allow the agency to carry on its vital work, said Ms. Espinosa.

The General Assembly President warned that the agency was $211 million short of the $1.2 billion needed to deliver its aid programmes. She went on to ask delegates to consider the consequences of a failure to meet the funding requirements, for “half a million boys and girls, for 5.4 million refugees, for the wider region and for the world.”

Mr. Krähenbühl explained that, in the absence of new contributions, the funding gap will rise throughout the year, adding that it is “absolutely crucial” to open schools on time in August and September, and to avoid a break-down of the agency’s food pipeline for a million people in Gaza.

The head of UNRWA reminded delegates that the agency’s work takes place against a backdrop of “psychosocial trauma resulting from years of conflict, blockade and violence”, where the lives of Palestine refugees are defined in every aspect by occupation, “from home demolitions and forced evictions, to lack of freedom of movement and violence.”

Echoing these remarks, the Secretary-General underscored the efficiency of UNRWA operations, stressing the “extraordinary reform and cost-control measures to reduce inefficient spending.” Thanks to these measures, he said, UNRWA has saved $500 million. The international community, Mr. Guterres continued, must “rise to the challenge”, so that UNRWA can continue its “important and impressive work.”

UNRWA schools provide ‘hope for a better future’

Following the remarks from the senior UN officials, Hanan Abu Asbeh and Hatem Hamdouna, teenage students from the West Bank and Gaza, elected to represent 536,000 UNRWA students from Gaza and the West Bank, spoke of their daily experiences, and the importance of UNRWA schools in their lives.

UN Photo/Manuel Elias

Hanan Abu Asbeh (foreground), a 15-year-old girl from the West Bank and 14-year-old Hatem Hamdouna from Gaza address delegates at the UN in New York about life as students in schools run by United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Middle East.

Scenes of war and destruction are still in my head, and haunt me in my sleep Hatem Hamdouna, Palestine refugee student

Hanan, who said that she had “led a life of suffering”, hearing the sounds of explosions and bullets in the streets, expressed her hope that schools will open on time this year. She said that for some children, the end of the school year meant long holidays, free from the classroom. For Palestinian refugee children however, it is “not fun”, she said, because education is the most important thing they have.

Although he is only fifteen, Hatem has already lived through three wars, and he told the delegates that, although “scenes of war and destruction are still in my head, and haunt me in my sleep”, an UNRWA education has been his only hope for a better future, and allowed him to learn about his rights, even in the darkest times.

This article orignally appeared on UN NEWS

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It’s time we took a seat ‘at your table’: Guterres calls on world youth to keep leading climate emergency response

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, at the World Conference of Ministers Responsible for Youth 2019 and Youth Forum Lisboa+21, in Lisbon, Portugal

Older generations have “failed to respond properly” to the climate emergency said the UN chief on Sunday, while the young are “stepping up to the challenge” and taking the lead to slow the destructive pace of global warming.

António Guterres was making the closing address at the UN-backed World Conference of Ministers Responsible for Youth, and Youth Forum, in the Portuguese capital Lisbon, Lisboa+21.

You don’t want to miss Day 2⃣ at #Lisboa21! No matter where you are, join me today for the proclamation of Lisboa+21 Declaration.

Here’s how you can tune

https://t.co/cNCyTeryOq@Youthlisboa21

— UN Youth Envoy (@UNYouthEnvoy) June 23, 2019

The summit comes 21 years after the adoption of the Lisbon Declaration on Youth Policies and Programmes, and provides a place for national governments to talk about progress made with young people directly, and well as introducing new approaches to empowering youth in politics and decision-making.

Building on an argument he has been making for some months now in the face of the existential threat posed by climate change, enshrined in the Paris Agreement of 2015 to keep warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, the Secretary-General said that it’s “not enough to listen to young people and provide a seat at the table – we need to take a seat at your table”.

Schoolchildren get it, more than global leaders

Through the actions of inspiration young leaders such as Sweden’s Greta Thunberg who’s got classrooms striking for climate action across the world, Mr. Guterres said that “schoolchildren have grasped its urgency better than global leaders. They know the window of opportunity is closing; they are determined to beat this threat and they are making a big difference already.”

The UN chief said Governments were listening, and “companies are starting to realise that a big carbon footprint is bad for their image, and even for their profits.”

This is just the start, he added, saying that the energy and commitment of young people, such as the delegates in the audience in Lisbon, was making action a priority, “stepping up to the challenge.”

“We need to create an enabling environment for young people, where they are seen not as subjects to be protected, but as citizens with equal rights, equal voices and equal influence, as full members of our societies and powerful agents for change.”

He lauded the World Programme of Action for Youth, the focus of this weekend’s efforts in Portugal, saying that it was encouraging a wider focus on policy-making and programmes that are truly relevant to youth worldwide.

“Policies on gender are particularly important since we cannot build strong, just and resilient communities and societies without the full participation and leadership of half of their members.

Mr. Guterres told the hall he was hoping that many would be in New York in September, for not only the major Climate Action Summit, but also to help push along “more urgent and ambitious global action for implementation”.

Lisboa +21

World Conference of Ministers Responsible for Youth 2019 and Youth Forum Lisboa+21, in Lisbon, Portugal, as Jayathma Wickramanayake, UN Envoy on Youth, addresses delegates.

Value ‘potential and promise’ of youth: Wickramanayake

With many senior UN attendees from multiple agencies, the UN chief’s Envoy on Youth, Jayathma Wickramanayake, spoke on behalf of the whole UN System, telling delegates that they represented “the largest-ever generation of young people” in human history, with 1.8 billion aged between 10 and 24. Around 90 per cent are in developing countries, noting that sustainable development could not be achieved, “unless we involve young people and create the conditions that allow them to reach their full potential.”

“Young people should be valued for their potential and promise” she said, “not seen as a problem”. Addressing the ministers in the room, she said that when “implemented and adequately funded, robust youth policies can be instrumental in reducing inequality among young people and between youth and the broader community.”

She said the UN’s Youth 2030 strategy, launched last year, was a holistic plan to “build the agency and advance the rights of young people and ensure their engagement” with the whole 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. She called on ministers and policy makers to work with the UN to deliver the youngest generations, a better future.

This article originally appeared on UN News

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ICE’s planned deportation raids postponed.

The raids would have targeted people in up to 2,000 families as well as “collateral arrests,” arrests both of undocumented immigrants they encounter that they weren’t looking for, as well as of people they want to monitor but can’t immediately begin the deportation process for. This is expected to cause a spike in useage of cell411 so activists should be prepared for in-person checks of new users and use closed groups to reduce the number of provacatur reports.

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President Donald Trump has postponed a massive ICE operation that would have targeted 2,000 families with members who have received deportation orders. The raids were set to begin Sunday, nearly a week after Trump tweeted that “ICE will begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens who have illicitly found their way into the United States.”

Saturday, only roughly 12 hours before the predawn raids were set to begin, the president tweeted the operation will not begin for at least two weeks — if it is carried out at all — in order to give Congress time to “get together and work out a solution to the Asylum and Loophole problems at the Southern Border.” Should he not be satisfied with lawmakers’ progress in that time, Trump wrote, “Deportations start!”

At the request of Democrats, I have delayed the Illegal Immigration Removal Process (Deportation) for two weeks to see if the Democrats and Republicans can get together and work out a solution to the Asylum and Loophole problems at the Southern Border. If not, Deportations start!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 22, 2019

As the Washington Post reported, the raid were to be conducted as as part of a “family op” across 10 cities. In his first tweet, Trump called for a far greater number of people to be detained, promising “millions of illegal aliens” would be deported; the ICE action nevertheless would have been incredibly large in scope, and not without risk for communities where immigrants live and places where they work.

In an interview with ABC, Immigration and Customs Enforcement Acting Director Mark Morgan said the raids are about maintaining the “rule of law.” And though a ramped-up enforcement effort had been in the works, Trump’s decision to publicly telegraph a major law enforcement operation was an unusual one for a president to make. Coming as it did the evening before his 2020 reelection kickoff, his announcement appeared to be motivated by politics more than necessity. And as I detailed on Tuesday, ICE was blindsided by his tweet.

The Post reports that law enforcement officials felt comfortable talking to the publication on background about the raids because of Trump’s tweet, and expressed concerns both about Trump’s motivations and the raids themselves:

Some within DHS and ICE say the president appears to be using the operation for political purposes as he begins his reelection bid. Law enforcement officials worry that by publicly discussing the plan, Trump has undermined the chances of capturing those on the target list, as it likely pushed migrants with deportation orders underground.

ICE didn’t revealed much about the operational logistics of the forthcoming raids, but here’s some of what we knew about them.

Families targeted for deportation have received final orders of deportation, but haven’t necessarily been accused of crimes beyond that

CNN reports that raids would have occurred in 10 large cities that are “immigration court locations:” Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, New York, and San Francisco, and were intended to detain people from up to 2,000 families.

Morgan told reporters earlier this month that ICE would be targeting “individuals who have gone through due process and who have received final orders of deportation.”

Last year, the Trump administration developed an expedited legal process for migrant families, which, according to the Post, fast-tracked “the cases of thousands of families in major cities, obtaining ‘in absentia’ deportation orders for thousands of families that did not show up for their court hearings.”

But just because one or more members of a family have deportation orders doesn’t mean they are the hardened criminals that Trump often portrays them as being. (In a departure from Obama administration policy, Trump hasn’t made distinctions between undocumented immigrants who have criminal records and those that don’t.)

After news of the raids broke, and ACLU and RAICES — or the Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services — posted tweets aimed at educating immigrants about their rights if they or someone they know is swept up in one of the raids.

ICE Raids are expected to start on Sunday in:– Miami– Atlanta– Chicago– Baltimore– Denver– Houston– Los Angeles– New Orleans– New York City,– San FranciscoIf you are in any of these cities, please share this info #ProtectEachOther#Protejamonos pic.twitter.com/Cqa777nnxq

— RAICES (@RAICESTEXAS) June 21, 2019

The ICE warrant on the left does NOT authorize agents to enter a home without permission.La orden de ICE a la izquierda NO autoriza a los agentes a entrar al domicilio sin permiso. https://t.co/hl7Q1rv7sK

— ACLU (@ACLU) June 21, 2019

ICE officials planned for the raids be conducted over the course of several days; they would have begun early Sunday morning. As the Wall Street Journal reports, carrying out raids in the early morning is standard as it increases the chances those ICE are looking for will be at home.

ICE agents would have worked from a “target list” that contains the last known addresses of people with deportation orders. Agents also planned to make “collateral arrests,” arrests both of undocumented immigrants they encounter that they weren’t looking for, as well as of people they want to monitor but can’t immediately begin the deportation process for. Those collateral arrests may have included the family members of those with deportation orders, as well as neighbors of people on the target list. Those detained in collateral arrests that weren’t able to be immediately deported would have been fitted with ankle monitors and released.

ICE planned to temporarily house detained families in hotel rooms and family residential detention centers. Parents and children that were not arrested as a unit would have been reunited so that they could be deported as a family.

Should the raid have captured parents slated for deportation who have children who are US citizens, as was likely, CNN reports immediate caregivers (be they parents or other relatives) might have been fitted with ankle monitors and released in order to coordinate care for their children; other detained family members would not have be released. According to The New York Times, ICE agents might have also kept citizen children in hotel rooms with their parents until a relative came to pick them up.

Despite these measures, officials and advocacy groups feared children who have lived in the US for years could return home to find their parents have been taken by ICE agents. Acting DHS secretary Kevin McAleenan reportedly argued for reducing the scope of the upcoming operation in part due to concerns children who are away from home due to summer activities, such as visiting relatives, would have been left without primary caregivers.

And Sandra Cordero, director of the immigrant advocacy group Families Belong Together, told the Wall Street Journal, “Past raids have left children alone and afraid in empty homes, praying they won’t be left to care for younger siblings by themselves, with no idea if they’ll see their parents again,” and called the operation “another flagrant disregard for the welfare of children.”

The raid was vehemently opposed by many of the mayors of the cities it was set to be conducted in. Many, like Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, told ICE not to expect any support from local police, and all advised undocumented immigrants to know their rights before the raid.

Saturday morning, President Trump reiterated his support for the operation. He again portrayed the immigrants slated for deportation as hardened criminals, tweeting the raid would see the detention of people who have “run from the law and run from the courts” and proclaimed, “When people come into our Country illegally, they will be DEPORTED!”

The people that Ice will apprehend have already been ordered to be deported. This means that they have run from the law and run from the courts. These are people that are supposed to go back to their home country. They broke the law by coming into the country, & now by staying.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 22, 2019

Despite this, by Saturday afternoon, the president had changed his mind. He now says he hopes the threat of raids will push Congress to act, and that he expects lawmakers to have settled on an immigration solution in two weeks, something the House and the Senate have been unable to do for years.

These raids were controversial even within the Trump administration, in part because they’re risky

The Washington Post reported last month that former Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and former ICE Acting Director Ronald Vitiello were ousted from the administration in April in part because they were concerned that raids like the ones ICE is now planning to go forward with would be “bad policy and that the proposal was less than half-baked.”

Indeed, there are indications that the raids would have been somewhat indiscriminate, in part because of intelligence shortcomings. From the Post:

ICE agents have limited intelligence on the locations of the families with court-ordered deportations beyond their last known addresses. But White House and ICE officials believe agents will be able to make many “collateral arrests” by finding foreigners living in the country illegally at or near the target locations.

The publicity Trump has given to the operations will likely cause some undocumented immigrants who have received deportation orders and are living in affected cities to go underground. But ICE believed agents would have been able to arrest others who weren’t necessarily targets that were happened upon during the operation.

Acting DHS Secretary Kevin McAleenan has also reportedly pushed back on the large-scale “family op,” advocating a much more limited plan that would target approximately 150 families, per the Post.

It could well be that the president is buying time to gather more intelligence; he could also truly hope the pressure will force Congress into a success that has long eluded it. More will become clear in two weeks’ time, after the president’s deadline for a border and asylum deal.

This article originally appeared on VOX

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