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thegloober · 6 years

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The Redemption of Dellin Betances [2018 Season Review]

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

The 2018 season ended far earlier than we all would’ve liked. Now that the season is over, it’s time for our annual season review series, which continues today with Dellin Betances. Aside from post a day Monday through Friday, there is no set schedule for these posts. We’ll write about players when we feel like writing about them, so each day’s review post will be a surprise (even to us!).

(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Had many folks gotten their way last offseason, Dellin Betances would not have been a Yankee in 2018. He collapsed so spectacularly down the stretch in 2017 that he seemed almost unsalvageable. We’ve seen Betances go through ups and downs for years now, often extreme ups and downs. What he went through last season was the lowest point of his big league career.

Things went so poorly for Betances down the stretch late last season — at one point Dellin walked ten batters in 9.2 innings, and he would’ve walked more had Joe Girardi not had a quick hook — that he was basically unusable in the postseason, which meant a larger workload for David Robertson and Chad Green in October. Would the Yankees trade Betances? Non-tender him? Many were ready to cut ties with Dellin.

Fortunately, the Yankees aren’t the kind to give up on high-end talent, so they stuck with Betances and were rewarded with a spectacular 2018 season, one in which he was their best reliever and again a dominant bullpen force. Dellin went from persona non grata in the 2017 postseason to Aaron Boone’s top weapon in the 2018 postseason. Quite a difference a year makes, eh?

In 66.2 innings this past season Betances posted a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) with an excellent strikeout rate (42.3%) and an acceptable walk rate (9.6%). That is the highest strikeout rate of Dellin’s career — only Josh Hader (46.7%) and Edwin Diaz (44.3%) had a higher strikeout among the 89 relievers to throw at least 60 innings this year — and a walk rate that is far below his 2017 number (16.9%) and career average (11.0%). He was awesome.

This season Betances became the first reliever in history with five straight 100-strikeout seasons — Betances and Hall of Famers Goose Gossage and Rollie Fingers are the only relievers with five 100-strikeout seasons in their career — and he jumped into 15th place on the franchise’s all-time appearance list (357). He could move into the top ten next season. Let’s review Dellin’s season.

A Summer of Dominance

From May 19th through September 22nd, a span of 44 appearances, Betances pitched to a 1.74 ERA (2.00 FIP) with 81 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. The numbers are comical: 46.2 IP, 23 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 17 BB, 76 K. Opponents hit .158/.266/.253 against him. Only nine times in those 44 appearances did Betances allow multiple baserunners and only five times did he allow an earned run.

Those dates are not necessarily cherry-picked. May 19th is the day Betances started his American League record 44-appearance streak with a strikeout and September 22nd is the final appearance in that stretch. Here are the longest reliever strikeout streaks in baseball history:

Aroldis Chapman, 2013-14 Reds: 49 games

Corey Knebel, 2016-17 Brewers: 46 games

Dellin Betances, 2018 Yankees: 44 games

Bruce Sutter, 1979 Cubs: 39 games

Josh Hader, 2017-18 Brewers and Eric Gagne, 2003-04 Dodgers: 35 games

Betances set both the American League record and the MLB single-season record this year. His record streak came to an unceremonious end on September 24th, in his second-to-last appearance of the season. He didn’t get hit around or anything. Betances faced three batters and got three quick ground ball outs on eight pitches. The strikeout streak is over. Long live the strikeout streak.

“Honestly, I’m not a guy that puts much attention into stretches or stats, but this is probably the best I’ve felt in a long time,” Betances said in August. “I’ve been feeling good all year. Even when I was going through some stuff early on, I felt like it was just a matter of results changing and maybe paying attention a little bit more to detail and what I need to do to make sure I wasn’t giving up as many runs as I was earlier. I just feel like I’ve been good with my delivery, repeating my delivery and using both my pitches equally, so I think that’s helped me.”

Dellin was not selected for the All-Star Game this season, ending his run of four straight All-Star selections. Betances, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer were the only pitchers selected to every All-Star Game from 2014-17. Betances could’ve been an All-Star this year though. Even after his early season hiccup, he had great numbers, but pitching spots were hard to come by because the Twins (Jose Berrios), Blue Jays (J.A. Happ), and Tigers (Joe Jimenez) all needed a token All-Star. Oh well. Dellin did not get selected but was still worthy.

The Highest Leverage Situations

Regular season Leverage Index tells us Betances was not among the league leaders in high-leverage appearances. He didn’t even lead the Yankees in such appearances. One-hundred-and-forty-seven relievers threw at least 50 innings this past season. Here are Dellin’s Leverage Index numbers:

Average LI: 1.43 (46th in MLB)

Average LI when entering game: 1.34 (65th in MLB)

Appearances with 1.5 LI or higher: 24 (60th in MLB)

For the Yankees, Betances was second to Chapman (1.90) in average Leverage Index and third behind Chapman (1.56) and David Robertson (1.41) in average Leverage Index when entering the game. His 24 appearances with a 1.5 Leverage Index — anything at 1.5 or above qualifies as high leverage — were third on the Yankees behind Robertson (27) and Chapman (25).

Betances settled in as the Eighth Inning Guy™ early in the season and that meant he didn’t always pitch in the highest leverage situation. Sometimes he’d pitch with a two or three run lead after Robertson or Chad Green entered with a one-run lead an inning earlier. Betances did, however, get some of the biggest outs in the postseason. He was Boone’s middle of the order specialist and that mean crucial outs in the middle innings.

Championship Probability Added is essentially Win Probability Added on steroids. It tells you how much closer an individual play brings you to a World Series title rather than how much closer it brings you a single win. Here are the five biggest outs of the 2018 Yankees season by CPA:

Wild Card Game: Luis Severino strikes out Marcus Semien to end fourth (+0.011 CPA)

Wild Card Game: Betances gets Matt Chapman to fly out for the first out of the fifth (+0.009 CPA)

ALDS Game Four: CC Sabathia gets Ian Kinsler to fly out to end the first (+0.008 CPA)

Wild Card Game: Betances gets Jed Lowrie to fly out for the second out of the fifth (+0.007 CPA)

Wild Card Game: Betances strikes out Khris Davis to end the fifth (+0.007 CPA)

Severino striking out Semien with the bases loaded to preserve the two-run lead is, pretty clearly, the biggest out of the season. That passes the eye test and the CPA test, I think. Three of the next four biggest outs of the season came in the next inning, with Betances on the mound. He inherited runners on first and second with no outs from Severino, and the A’s had their 2-3-4 hitters up. Dellin sat them down in order. He then tossed a 1-2-3 sixth inning as well.

“I’ve been waiting for that moment since last year,” said Betances following the Wild Card Game. “Obviously, last year I didn’t finish the season the way I wanted to. So for me to be able to go out there and do that, it’s a dream come true.”

Several pitchers still playing in the postseason have since passed Betances on the 2018 leaderboard, but, after ALDS Game Four, he was top five among all pitchers in CPA. He’s still top ten. Betances led Yankees pitchers in CPA this season and rather easily as well. Here’s the leaderboard:

Aaron Judge: +0.056 CPA

Dellin Betances: +0.050 CPA

Masahiro Tanaka: +0.024 CPA

Aroldis Chapman: +0.022 CPA

Neil Walker: +0.018 CPA

Neil Walker? Neil Walker! Anyway, this is all a very long way of saying Betances got some incredibly important outs this season. He was the team’s best reliever this summer and, in the postseason, Boone used him in what he considered the game’s biggest moments. Dellin was my platonic ideal of a high-leverage guy in October. He faced the other team’s best hitters with the score close. It was awesome.

“Dellin is a stud. I told him before the (Wild Card Game), you may be who I go to in the fourth or the fifth inning potentially, if it’s a part of the lineup that I want you facing in that spot,” Boone said. “I just felt he was the guy and so we got him ready for it and he was lights out.”

A Small Adjustment Pays Big Dividends

Betances did not have command problems last season. He had basic strike-throwing problems. Severino had command problems this year. He threw plenty of strikes but they weren’t great strikes. He left pitches out over the plate rather than dotting the corners. Betances couldn’t get the ball over the plate late last season. It was ugly. Relievers who don’t throw strikes tend to find themselves outside the Circle of Trust™ rather quickly.

Never will Betances be a pristine control guy. He’s not someone who will run a 4% walk rate or something like that. He overpowers hitters with upper-90s fastballs and a wicked breaking ball — it’s actually two breaking balls — and he just needs to be around the zone to be effective. He doesn’t have to paint the corners or hit the knees. Just be around the plate enough and in the zone enough, and things’ll work out. Dellin couldn’t do that last year.

To correct that problem, the Yankees and Betances worked to simplify his delivery a bit, specifically shortening up his leg kick and eliminating some extraneous movement. Here is the obligatory before-and-after GIF. That is 2017 Betances on the left and 2018 Betances on the right.

Last season Betances brought his left knee up high during his delivery. Right to his chest, basically. This year the leg kick was much more abbreviated. Up and down, quickly. Last year it was this clunky leg kick that seemed to slow everything down. Now the leg is up, the leg is down, and the ball is heading toward the plate. The simplified delivery helped Betances throw more strikes and get back to being one of the game’s best relievers.

“You’d rather not go through those (struggles), but with relievers that have pitched a lot, it happens quite a bit,” said pitching coach Larry Rothschild in August. “He’s come out on the right side of that more times than not. His track record is impressive. Four All-Star Games is not something you ignore. It was just a matter of him getting back into a real solid delivery and repeating it. He’s been able to do that.”

Betances was not perfect this season. No relievers are. He struggled out of the gate this season and looked #stillbroken, then, late in the season, he had that back-to-back homers blown save against the Tigers. By and large though, Betances was excellent, and a dominant force at the end of the games. And it’s not like we’d never seen that guy before. This season didn’t come out of nowhere. Dellin has been outstanding the last five years. The dominance outweighs the hiccups and that was especially true in 2018. He was great.

What’s Next?

The 2019 season will be Betances’ final season of team control. He is arbitration-eligible for the third and final time this winter — MLBTR projects a $6.4M salary next year — and I suppose the Yankees could approach him about a long-term contract. Betances is obviously very good and very valuable. He also turns 31 in March and can be unpredictable. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees give him a one-year arbitration contract for next season, and then worry about 2020 after the season.

Either way, there shouldn’t be any (or many, I guess) calls to trade or non-tender Betances this offseason. At least not like last offseason. He was great throughout the regular season and postseason, and other than the general “this guy can be unpredictable” worries, there’s no real reason to believe Betances is about to see his performance slip. He’ll be back in a high-leverage role again in 2019.

The Yankees have their priciest arbitration class in years this offseason and some big decisions are required

Source: https://bloghyped.com/the-redemption-of-dellin-betances-2018-season-review/

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flauntpage · 7 years

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Your Thursday Morning Roundup

The Houston Astros are the World Champions of Baseball. For the first time in the organization’s history, the Astros hoisted the World Series trophy last night after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 in Game 7.

With Houston’s first WS win, these teams are left standing on the wall at the middle school dance:

If Astros win, only these franchises will have no World Series titles: Rays, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers. Padres, Rockies.

— Tyler Kepner (@TylerKepner) November 2, 2017

Chase Utley strike out in the 9th inning to cap off an ugly postseason to maybe end his career? He was 0-6 in the World Series and hitless in the entire playoffs.

The game was at Dodger Stadium, so naturally ticket prices skyrocketed:

$117,357: What someone just paid on StubHub, including fees, for two seats in second row behind home plate for Game 7 tonight.

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 1, 2017

Those six-second T-Mobile ads on FOX don’t seem as annoying after looking at that price, huh?

Houston Ace Justin Verlander earned his first World Series ring and will get a wedding band shortly too:

Sources close to the couple confirm: justin verlander and Kate Upton are getting married in a few days. He just got the ring!

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 2, 2017

Apparently, another wedding is on the horizon for a fellow Astro as well:

SHE SAID YES!

1 night, 2 rings for Carlos Correa. https://t.co/N4XLUPL6yW

— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) November 2, 2017

Just a few months until pitchers and catchers report!

The Roundup:

The Sixers were in action last night as well, at home against the Atlanta Hawks. J.J. Redick returned and helped deliver a 119-109 victory for the home fans.

Robert Covington piloted the Philly offense with 22 points. Joel Embiid dropped 21 points in 30 (!!) minutes. Ben Simmons had 19 points including this:

BOOM! http://pic.twitter.com/tMqD2ZPmlZ

— Kyle Scott (@CrossingBroad) November 2, 2017

The Sixers are now 4-4 on the season, .500 for the first time in 4 years.

Afterwards, Simmons riled up Embiid like a 5-year old who got the toy he wanted in his Happy Meal:

Joel Embiid was so excited about that win that we had to bleep him during his postgame interview with @MSullivanFrench. http://pic.twitter.com/Wg1sL5bhEF

— NBC Sports Philly (@NBCSPhilly) November 2, 2017

Off the court, Jahlil Okafor made it known on Wednesday that he wants out of Philly, by any means necessary:

“He said that he felt that if he bought me out, another team would be getting me for free,” Okafor said. “But that’s where we stand today because you waited so long to trade me. There’s nothing else to do. I’m not playing here and at the end of the season, I’m an unrestricted free agent. So I want to get on the court and play and produce.”

(Via NBC Sports Philadelphia)

Brett Brown states why Okafor is riding the bench.

And although Okafor was seen to be a big part of The Process, it isn’t dead just because his time as a Sixer is all but done, according to our Phil Keidel, who says don’t put any stock in Eskin’s BS.

In media row at Sixers game, there will be one less person as well-known writer Jake Pavorsky left NJ.com yesterday to explore this thing called a social life.

Someone still in the media game, ESPN’s Jackie MacMullen, wrote a great feature on Joel Embiid yesterday. In part:

“Everybody’s got to stop being scared,” Embiid says. “I’m not made of glass.”’

Anderson understands why the sentiment irks his friend. Nobody wants to be known as the biggest gamble in sports simply because he has yet to prove he can remain upright.

“I don’t drive. All I really need is my video games and a big-ass TV.”

“Joel thinks he’s me sometimes — a 6-6 shooting guard,” Anderson says. “He thinks he can make acrobatic plays. And when you tell him after the game, ‘Be careful,’ he doesn’t want to hear that.”

The Sixers get above .500 when they host the Indiana Pacers on Friday night at 7pm.

—

The Chicago Blackhawks shutout the Flyers 3-0.

They went to work quick to get a 2-0 advantage:

Here come the Hawks. 2 goals in 20 seconds. It's Toews on the breakaway. http://pic.twitter.com/fvs2nImfNW

— Chris Jastrzembski (@CFJastrzembski) November 2, 2017

In addition to the loss, the Flyers lost Radko Gudas, who left Wednesday night’s game early with an upper body injury.

Philly returns to the ice tonight at the St. Louis Blues. Puck drops at 8 p.m.

—

On the gridiron, the Eagles defense’s job got a lot easier on Sunday now as the Broncos announce that Brock Osweiler is starting.

The sports books rightfully responded to this news:

Eagles-Broncos line started a -7.5 and has moved to -8 with 84% of action on Birds, per Fantasy Labs.

— Kyle Scott (@CrossingBroad) November 1, 2017

The latest Crossing BroadCast dropped yesterday morning and talked Jay Ajayi.

Sunday’s Eagles game is on CBS, with Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts on the call.

Fox Sports 1’s Nick Wright (who?) is the second dumbest talking head on TV, behind Skip Bayless. This is why.

—

Papa John’s says sales are down. The reason? NFL anthem protests, so they say:

“The NFL has hurt us,” company founder and CEO John Schnatter said. “We are disappointed the NFL and its leadership did not resolve this.”

Executives said the company has pulled much of its NFL television advertising and that the NFL has responded by giving the company additional future spots. Later in the day, a spokesman clarified that the spots themselves weren’t being pulled, just the NFL shield or “official sponsor” designation on those spots.

“Leadership starts at the top, and this is an example of poor leadership,” Schnatter said, noting he thought the issue had been “nipped in the bud” a year and a half ago.

—

A-Rod texted Jennifer Lopez from the bathroom during their first date. Baller move? Context:

“I didn’t know if it was a date,” Rodriguez says. “Maybe we were seeing each other at night because of her work schedule. I went in uneasy, not knowing her situation.”

He continues: “It would be incredibly productive for me to sit with one of the smartest, greatest women in the world, especially for a guy like me who is coming through tough times, rehabbing himself, re-establishing himself to folks out there. I thought it would be a win-win no matter what.”

Then: “She told me around the third or fourth inning that she was single,” he says. “I had to get up and go re-adjust my thoughts. I went to the bathroom and got enough courage to send her a text.”

“So I’m sitting there and he’s walking back, and I get a text,” Lopez continues. “It says . . . ” She looks significantly at Rodriguez. “You can tell her!” he says. “ ‘You look sexy AF,’ ” she tells me. They both laugh. “And then it took a turn,” Lopez says. “The fire alarm went off, and we had to evacuate.” I laugh, thinking she’s being metaphorical. “No, really,” she says. “The fire alarm went off!”

—

Former 97.5 The Fanatic Program Director has landed on his feet, on the west coast.

—

Comcast Spectacor is getting into esports.

—

In non-sports news…

A guy caught got getting oral from a woman on a plane, who was 20-years older than him. They never meet before boarding the plane.

A University of Hartford student put her roommate’s toothbrush up her own ass.

Your Thursday Morning Roundup published first on http://ift.tt/2pLTmlv

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suaasgn-blog · 7 years

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Orioles clinch rematch cheap hotels new jersey

To be fair, Bobby Valentine was probably doomed from the start. Reportedly, Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington was not in favor of the hire from the beginning, he was the "suggestion" of team President and CEO Larry Lucchino. Red Sox players knew that Valentine, who was on a cheap two-year deal, did not have ownership's full support which almost immediately tilted the balance of power in their favor. Bobby Valentine's sharp tongue with the press ensured that he would get in conflict with the famously tough local media. The man Valentine was replacing, cheap packers jerseys Terry Francona, was beloved among Red Sox fans, most of whom were quick to sour on Valentine as soon as the Youkilis incident. Months into a two-year contract, Valentine found himself without support, so even if he had not made so many public blunders and the Red Sox had not played so poorly under his watch, his time may have been short. There's something to be said about the fact that, seemingly aware of this, he decided to be himself to the very end. There's something nearly admirable, if not entirely likable, about such near-suicidal stubbornness.

It is easy to attack Valentine, as well as incredibly fun, but the real onus should be on Red Sox ownership for hiring him in the first place and then offering him very little support. The thinking supposedly was they would hire someone who had the opposite of Francona's "player's manager" temperament, but then seemed to take the players' side when he inevitably got into public conflict with them. cheap college football jerseys In essence, they hired someone who was probably an ill-fit to begin with, and then didn't give him any support whatsoever. In medical terms, like diarrhea or vomiting, Bobby Valentine was more of an unpleasant symptom than the disease here.

Who knows? A part of me wonders if the Red Sox knew this was a transition year, and that whoever replaced Terry Francona was doomed to fail. Maybe Valentine was brought in with the idea either he would somehow bring an unexpected spark to a team with chemistry issues, and failing that, he would be the sacrificial lamb. Valentine would absorb a lot of the blame and vitriol, and whoever replaced him would get a benefit of the doubt that Francona's successor was never going to get. Maybe owner John Henry, custom soccer jerseys cheap along with Lucchino and Cherington, are playing the long, LONG game here.

Regardless, Bobby Valentine has more than earned his reputation as one of the worst managers in Red Sox history. The Red Sox will search for a new manager, and all indications are that Cherington may actually get to pick his own this time. Whoever the next manager is - rumors persist that Toronto Blue Jays' manager John Farrell is the organization's first choice - chances are that he will have the early support from both players and fans by virtue, and I do mean virtue, of not being Bobby Valentine.

What started in March with the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics playing in Tokyo has come to a close here in October. Playoff baseball is upon us, meaning the regular season is complete - 162 games played by 30 Major League teams - which to some may seem like a lot, but to baseball fans is as perfect a number as you can get. green bay packers jersey cheap It seems like it began yesterday, but strangely, at the same time, it also feels like a long time ago. Remember when the Miami Marlins were a big deal? When Mike Trout and Bryce Harper weren't playing big league ball? When Mariano Rivera was closing games? A long time ago. Then again, there is so much action over the course of a six month season that it can just fly by, that is, unless you are in Boston. We've had perfect games, no-hitters, underdogs one-upping establishments, PED controversies, text message scandals, courtroom drama, blockbuster deals, a triple crown winner (a rarity regardless what you think of it), a four home run game, milestones, some incredible seasons from pitchers and the usual assortment of out-of-this-world defense mixed in with some wild comebacks.

That was yesterday, now we move to the next stage, the playoffs. For the first time we have ten teams, with the two wild-card teams playing a single game for the right to move on to the Divisional Series. cheap hotel in new jersey It works, and it means that Friday is going to make for a phenomenal day of baseball. Before we get to the ten teams that made the initial cut, I just want to say one thing. There has been some talk that the best team in baseball is not in these playoffs. Yes, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are an immensely talented group of players, but they had 162 games to prove they belong in the postseason and they failed. How can you call a team like that the best team in baseball? I don't see them in the below matchups.

The Cardinals were beaten 3-1 at home by the Cincinnati Reds, but the Los Angeles Dodgers who had to win to stay alive in the fight for the second and final wild-card berth then lost 4-3 to the San Francisco Giants. St Louis will play the one-off wild-card game at the Atlanta Braves on Friday, with the winner to progress to the National League divisional series, which already features the Washington Nationals, Cincinnati and San Francisco.

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junker-town · 7 years

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The divine beauty of Rich Hill’s no-hitter that wasn’t

Rich Hill losing a no-hitter in the 10th inning was much better than an actual no-hitter. For everyone but Hill and his teammates.

I’ve written a variation of this theme before, and I’ll write it again: No-hitters are baseball. They’re one part luck and several parts skill. The great catch that saves the no-hitter in the eighth is the random bench player who hits a home run in the ALCS. The nasty curveball that hitters can’t touch throughout nine hitless innings is the same thing as a team’s best player driving in runs in Game 7. The Cubs won the World Series because, yes, they were an incredible collection of talent, but also because they had one of the cleanest injury sheets of any World Series team in history. When a pitcher throws a no-hitter, it’s as much about the baseballs that were caught as it is the baseballs that batters couldn’t hit.

When a pitcher loses a no-hitter in the 10th inning, that’s not baseball. That’s something that transcends the sport, and the analogy breaks down. Hear me out: It becomes something that’s even better.

Not for Rich Hill! No, he’d rather have the no-hitter and the win, and I can’t blame him. For the pitcher, it’s obviously preferable to be at the bottom of a dogpile, to get neon sugar water dumped on your head while you’re being interviewed, to go where Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux never could. I can appreciate that, and I feel bad for Hill.

For us, though? This becomes a much more fascinating story. This becomes a painting that we hang on our wall instead of a page in one of the books on our bookshelf. Here’s a list of pitchers who have thrown a no-hitter in the last 20 years, except I’ve added someone who didn’t throw a no-hitter:

Henderson Alvarez

Jose Jimenez

Matt Garza

Mike Fiers

Francisco Liriano

Jon Lester

David Price

Chris Heston

Josh Beckett

Bud Smith

Jered Weaver

Maybe you’re a superfan who can spot the imposter immediately. For most of us, though, there will be a lot of garbled wait-a-secs and fuzzy reminders. Some of those are no-hitters you watched or remember vividly for some reason. Others are like a song that you just can’t place.

Here’s a list of pitchers who lost a no-hitter in the 10th inning on a danged walk-off home run:

Rich Hill

And you’ll remember that for years. Decades. There won’t be a moment where you’re searching for his name. Who’s the dude who threw two no-hitters in a row? Johnny Vander Meer. Who’s the guy who lost a no-hitter in the 10th inning on a home run? Rich Hill. Who’s the pitcher who threw a no-hitter against the Angels in 1986? Well, uh, hold on, let me get my phone out ...

A no-hitter for Hill would have meant a lot of things. It would have meant that his covey of curveballs were all working, all under his complete control. It would have meant that he mixed speeds expertly. But it also would have meant that all of these baseballs in the middle of the plate were missed, for whatever reason:

All the light-red squares were called strikes. All the dark-blue squares were outs. You can see a bunch of them in the middle of the plate. And you really don’t see a lot of yellow squares outside of the strike zone. While this confirms that the Pirates weren’t swinging the bat well against Hill, which is sort of what a pitcher is supposed to do, it also confirms that they had their chances. But only if they were throwing paper when he was throwing rock*, and that just ... never happened.

* Technically, considering how many different looks Hill can give you with his curveball, it was more like this than the traditional rock-paper-scissors game, but you get the point.

Now think about what it took for Hill to lose a no-hitter in the 10th inning on a home run. It had to take all of the above and it had to include a sputtering offensive performance from a team that hadn’t been shut out in months. One of the best lineups in baseball couldn’t do much against three different Pirates pitchers. Trevor Williams is the pitcher you would design in a lab if you wanted to create someone who wasn’t likely to shut the Dodgers down. He’s right-handed, a hard thrower, but not that hard, inexperienced, prone to bouts of wildness ... exactly the kind of pitcher that the Dodgers have feasted on this year.

Other pitchers the Dodgers have feasted on this year: all of them. That part doesn’t really matter. It’s just important that this was the game in which they were shut down. If a no-hitter is really an amalgam of different statistical probabilities and permutations colliding, the Dodgers’ not scoring a run was a huge, unlikely set of conditions to add to the pile, which makes everything that much more unlikely, that much more of a special twinkly diamond.

We can use analogies to prove the point, too. What’s more impressive: Carlos Delgado hitting four home runs in a game, or Carlos Delgado hitting two inside-the-park home runs in a game? It’s close, but give me the second one.

What’s more impressive: John Jaso hitting for the cycle, or John Jaso tripping while rounding second base and getting tagged out before he got the triple that would have completed the cycle? I don’t remember Jaso hitting a cycle, but I would probably have a t-shirt made of him tripping.

What’s more impressive: the two cycles hit in Blue Jays history, or the complete lack of cycles the Padres hit from 1969 to 2015? The former is a boring fact. The latter was an artistic statement and a middle finger to statistical likelihood.

I’d even argue that Dodgers fans should appreciate the oddity of Hill allowing no hits in nine innings and losing. It came in a season that’s one of the best in a long, storied franchise history. Of the 110 or 120 games the Dodgers will win this year, they couldn’t win the game in which their starting pitcher didn’t allow a hit or a walk for nine innings. That’s an eclipse that you shouldn’t look away from. Embrace the weirdness as a rare spice in the stew of baseball.

Hill and his teammates are right to be upset or annoyed, just as they’re right to forget it ever happened. The rest of us, though? Oh, we should appreciate this tiny baseball gift. The next no-hitter will be celebrated, as it should be. But this will stand for decades to come as one of the great exploding jack-in-the-boxes in baseball history, and I’m much more into that. Bless you, Rich Hill. Bless you, Josh Harrison. And bless you, every single Dodger who just couldn’t get that runner home. You’ve made baseball even more interesting than it already was.

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junker-town · 7 years

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Why are there MLB trades in August?

The July 31 trade deadline is dead. Long live the August 31 trade deadline.

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is over. And in the next three or four weeks, there will still be a bunch of trades. Probably because someone is sleeping on the job over at the league office.

Unless ... this is allowed? Every year? Because the trade deadline isn’t really a deadline at all, but rather a cutoff point after which trades involve a lot more red tape?

It’s true! The world of August trades is vast and wonderful, even if it doesn’t get the same kind of hype that the July 31 deadline gets. Trades can still happen after the deadline. They can be important, shocking trades that can define a franchise for the next 20 years, even.

And they can absolutely help teams win the World Series.

So let’s dig into the history and wonder of August trades with an explainer, which is the informational leaflet of the modern era. Pretend like you picked this up at the information desk in the lobby of baseball.

You have questions about August baseball trades. Hopefully, we have answers.

Wait, baseball teams can still trade after the July 31 trade deadline?

They can. It’s just a lot more complicated.

Pretend that you’re a GM. Look at all the fancy pens on your desk! It’s July 31, and someone calls you to offer a trade. Someone from their big league roster for someone on your big league roster. You accept. It’s done. Unless you have to deal with no-trade clauses or something similar, that’s it. Easy.

But if you want a player after July 31, those major leaguers will have needed to pass through revocable waivers first.

What are revocable waivers?

They’re waivers that a team can take back. We’ll use two players as an example.

Let’s say Cody Bellinger won’t stop picking his nose and eating it, and it’s causing such distress in the Dodgers’ clubhouse that the team decides that he has to be traded. Because the non-waiver the trade deadline is over, the Dodgers would put him on revocable waivers, which allows any team to claim him and work out a trade.

The Phillies would get the first chance to claim Bellinger because they have the worst record in the National League, which is the league of the team placing him on waivers. After the Phillies, the Giants would have the second chance to submit a claim because they have the second-worst record. This would repeat through the rest of the NL if no one claims him, and then it would start over again with the White Sox, who have the worst record in the American League.

The Phillies would definitely claim Bellinger, considering he’s one of the most valuable players in baseball. They would be the only team allowed to talk trade with the Dodgers at that point. If the Dodgers decide they don’t want to make a trade with the Phillies, they would pull Bellinger off waivers. That’s it. No trade. No repercussions. No consequences for either team.

By contrast, the Angels will put Albert Pujols and the remaining four years, $114 million of his contract on waivers. All 29 teams will pass on him, and they will mutter incantations in dead languages while they do it.

After every team passes on Pujols, the Angels can call any of these teams and ask things like, “Would you trade for Albert Pujols if we sent $100 million along with him?”

If the other team is amenable to that idea, a deal can be struck. Pujols can be traded anywhere. The trade deadline doesn’t apply to him anymore because he cleared waivers.

What happens if a team doesn’t work out a trade with the claiming team, but they don’t want the player back?

The team that put the players on waivers can just give the player — and his contract — away. You claim it, you buy it.

The most famous example is when the Blue Jays put their closer, Randy Myers, on waivers in 1998. Every AL team passed on him because he was owed $13,327,348 for the next three years, which was big money for a reliever at the time.

The Padres claimed Myers, ostensibly to block the Braves (a likely postseason opponent) from claiming him. But instead of pulling him back, the Blue Jays giggled a little bit and let the Padres have him. Myers threw 14 bad innings for the Padres and battled shoulder injuries for the next two years, never pitching again.

Be careful of which players and contracts you claim, then.

On the other hand, the Marlins wanted to deal outfielder Cody Ross in 2010, and they put him on revocable waivers. The Giants claimed him, ostensibly to block the Padres from claiming him. The Marlins talked trade with the Giants, and then decided to just ditch the contract and hand him over.

Ross ended up being a postseason hero for the Giants.

I can’t begin to describe how Padres it is for them to get hosed by the same strategy that hosed them years before.

What happens after August 31?

Teams can still make trades, but any player acquired is ineligible for the postseason. Never forget the sad, strange tale of the Red Sox and Bruce Chen in 2011.

What are some of the biggest trades that happened in August?

Just in terms of major leaguers, and not prospects, there are a couple of stunners that went down weeks after the trade dust was supposed to have settled.

The most famous in recent history is the Nick Punto Trade, which is the official name of the deal that sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and cash from the Red Sox to the Dodgers for Ivan De Jesus, James Loney, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, and Jerry Sands. While none of those prospects worked out for the Red Sox, the money they saved directly led to their 2013 World Series championship. By contrast, the Dodgers will pay Carl Crawford nearly $22 million this year.

The St. Louis Cardinals acquired Larry Walker in an August deal with the Rockies, and he helped his new team with two fine seasons that led to two postseason berths. Two years before that, the Padres acquired Brian Giles, who had several fine years with them. The only problem is that Jason Bay and Oliver Perez were the players traded away, and both of them could have helped the Padres just as much, for a lot less money.

Years before, the Padres traded Woody Williams to the Cardinals, where he enjoyed a career renaissance and ... look, I don’t want to keep picking on the Padres, but they need to stay away from August for a little bit. It’s not you, it’s them.

In 1992, the Mets blew the baseball world up by trading David Cone to the Blue Jays for Jeff Kent and Ryan Thompson. It was a shock that the Mets would give up on a hyper-successful partnership with Cone, but they were scared that they weren’t going to get a chance to sign him after the offseason. A couple months later the big-market Royals swooped in and signed him back.

For my money, though, the biggest holy-grawlix trade in August history was the one that sent Ruben Sierra, Jeff Russell, Bobby Witt and cash from the Rangers to the Oakland Athletics for Jose Canseco. Sierra was a 26-year-old three-time All-Star. Witt was a 28-year-old with a fastball from the heavens and control from hell. Russell was a veteran closer in the middle of his third straight strong season.

And Canseco was a 27-year-old demigod who had finished fourth in the MVP voting the season before.

My stars, what a fascinating deal. It happened because teams used to not claim players on August waivers. It was against the unwritten front office rules. Now it’s accepted skullduggery. And because of teams leaving Canseco and Sierra alone, it led to one of the most compelling trades in baseball history, even if it flopped for both sides.

Who are some of the best prospects to get dealt in August?

1B - Jeff Bagwell 2B - Jeff Kent SS - Jose Bautista 3B - Phil Nevin C - Chris Hoiles

OF - Jason Bay OF - Jeromy Burnitz OF - Moises Alou OF - Kevin Bass OF - Ben Gamel

SP - John Smoltz SP - Jason Schmidt SP - Tim Belcher SP - Oliver Perez

RP - Pedro Strop RP - Michael Blazek

Bautista was a third baseman, so I’m sure his new team could have slid him over to shortstop. C’mon, work with me, here.

For the most part, though, the legacy of August trades are hundreds and hundreds of prospects who didn’t do much. That’s true of most trades, but it’s especially true of August trades.

Has any team actually won a championship with the help of an August trade?

Plenty. We mentioned Cone up there, and he helped the Blue Jays win the 1992 World Series. Mike Fontenot was worth a half-win for a Giants team that won their division on the last day of the season. Jeff Conine returned to the Marlins and help them win the 2003 World Series. Luis Sojo got what turned out to be the game-winning RBI for the Yankees in Game 4 of the 2000 World Series.

So, yes, it’s rare, but it happens. Cone in 1992 was probably the best example, though.

Are there more trades in August than there used to be?

Over the last few years? No. Compared to the ‘60s and ‘70s? Oh, yeah.

Baseball-Reference.com

The max was 17 in both 1995 and 1997. The low in the last 20 years was just five in 2001.

Which teams are the most active in August?

You can’t possibly want to know this. This seems like a question I would ask myself and spend way too much time answering, just because I hate myself. But, okay!

Over the last 20 years, we have ...

Gimme some weird stuff

There were three August trades that involved a Chris Carter from 2007 to 2009 (two Chris Carters total).

In 1993, the Tigers traded a pitcher named Ron Rightnowar. He would finish his career with 0 WAR according to FanGraphs.

Joel Youngblood was traded on August 4, 1982, after he got a hit for the Mets in a day game at Wrigley Field. He flew to Philadelphia to join the Expos, and he got a hit for them that same night. That led to one of the greatest baseball cards of my youth.

Man, I loved that card.

In 1981, the Astros traded a player named Kevin Houston. They have been cursed ever since.

Now you know a little bit more about August trades. You can expect at least a few in the coming month. Will another team be tempted by Albert Pujols and swing a deal with the Angels*? I guess only time will tell.

* No.

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