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saywhat-politics · 2 months
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aunti-christ-ine · 1 month
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Mike Luckovich
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One more time with feeling . . . Ignore the polls!
November 6, 2023
ROBERT B. HUBBELL
    We are one year out from the 2024 general election, and media outlets are busy predicting a future they cannot know. I routinely advise readers to “ignore the polls,” so whenever I write about the polls, readers tell me I should follow my own advice. Fair point. But the poll by the New York Times released over the weekend prompted dozens of readers to send panicked emails asking me to “Talk them off the ledge.” The NYTimes poll will get more coverage in the Monday news cycle, so in anticipation of hundreds of additional panicked reactions, I will once again address the issue of polling. It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.
          In short, the NYTimes poll found that Biden is trailing Trump in five of six swing states and that Democrats are losing ground among young, Hispanic, and Black voters. Many voters believe that Trump is better able to manage the economy, that Biden is “too old,” and cannot identify anything that Biden did to improve their lives. Go figure!
          Nothing I write below should be interpreted as saying that polls do not contain valuable information. They can (depending on their quality). Polls include information that helps campaign managers and candidates focus and refine their message. They are NOT predictions. Remember Nate Silver’s article in FiveThirtyEight in 2011, “Is Obama toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election.” If polls taken one year before elections were meaningfully predictive, then each of the following candidates should have quit their first campaigns: Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden—and Trump.  
          So, why should we not panic over the polls? Indeed, is there a silver lining? (Spoiler alert: Yes.)
          Let’s start with a lesson that we must not forget: The old paradigm of “horse-race” polls no longer applies. Why? Because such polls assume that two legitimate candidates are competing for votes within the system. We have never had a candidate who seeks to overthrow the system. Or who attempted a coup. Or who plans to invoke the Insurrection Act on the first day of his next term. Or who called for the execution of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Or who will use the DOJ to persecute his perceived enemies. Or who was found liable for sexual assault. Or who will support a nationwide ban on reproductive liberty. Or who views Putin as a friend and NATO allies as adversaries and leeches.
          I have not studied the NYTimes methodology, but I am confident it simply asks some variant of, “Which candidate do you support in 2024?” Faced with that limited construct, it is easy to be seduced into making a forced choice without regard to the fact that Trump is an anti-candidate. That error is compounded because the poll does not highlight Trump’s fundamental desire to destroy the system but instead asks about Biden’s age.
          As I have written before, believing that most voters will walk into the polling booth in 2024 and vote only for “Biden vs Trump” is simplistic—and beneath the NYTimes and its expert pollsters. When WaPo/ABC published a poll that was subjected to nearly universal derision for its flaws, I wrote the following:
          The 2024 presidential election features two candidates who are surrogates for different visions of America: Democracy versus autocracy; liberty versus tyranny; dignity versus bigotry; science versus disinformation; personal autonomy versus subservience to Christian nationalism; sustainability versus ecological disaster; safety versus gun violence; global stability versus confrontational isolationism. All of that—and much more—is on the ballot in 2024. The WaPo/ABC “horse-race” poll captures none of that.
          Three more points and then I will stop paying attention to the polls (as I recommend).
          First, Dan Pfeiffer’s article in The Message Box on Substack explains why the NYTimes poll shows the path forward. See Dan Pfeiffer, How to Respond to the Very Bad NYT Poll. If you are worried about the poll and want more details, I highly recommend Dan’s article. Pertinent passages include the following about “double haters” who dislike both Biden and Trump:
Perhaps the simplest explanation of Biden’s political challenges is that he has done a lot of good, popular things, and almost no one knows about them. Navigator tested a series of messages about Biden’s various accomplishments, including allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug costs, the bipartisan law to rebuild roads and bridges, and efforts to create more manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Guess what? All of this stuff is super popular. Medicare negotiating drug prices is supported by 77% of Americans, including 64% of Republicans. The bipartisan infrastructure law has the support of 73% of Americans and a majority of Republicans. Every accomplishment tested in this poll had majority support. It’s hard to overstate how impressive that is in a deeply divided, highly polarized country at a time when the President’s approval ratings are in the low 40s. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news: according to the poll, a majority of Americans heard little or nothing about the accomplishments tested. There is a yawning knowledge gap. Now for more good news (think of this as a positive sandwich); the poll shows that when people are told about what Biden has done, his approval rating goes up. The voters most likely to move are the “Double Haters.”
          My penultimate point: The 2024 presidential election matters a lot. But so do congressional elections, gubernatorial elections, state legislative elections, municipal elections, and more. If—heaven forbid—Trump wins in 2024, a second Trump term with a Democratically controlled Congress is radically different than if Republicans control Congress. And states can be bulwarks of individual liberties if Republicans are able to pass national legislation. So, let’s not put every hope and aspiration into the presidential election. We should do everything we can to win up and down the ballot.
Concluding Thoughts.
          Although I did not intend to devote the entire newsletter to the NYTimes poll, I will stop here. We will be dealing with bad polls, handwringing, and negative press for the next year, so it is worth drawing a line in the sand and saying, “Enough!” The election is not over until it is over—notwithstanding the media’s best efforts to declare defeat a year in advance. And while I am criticizing the media, shame on the media for normalizing Trump as a legitimate political candidate. He is not.
          We will prevail over the long run, no matter what happens in 2024. (To be clear, I believe Biden will win re-election.) But if we have confidence that we will ultimately prevail, we can set aside the apocalyptic fears that we wrongly ascribe to a single election in 2024. We don’t need to panic over every poll.
The NYTimes poll reminds us that we have plenty of work to do in spreading the good news of Biden’s accomplishments. So, rather than needlessly fretting a year in advance about 2024, let’s recognize that we have a year to achieve
[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]
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tomorrowusa · 28 days
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^^^ Actually, "MAGA Mike" acts more like the Pharisees than Moses.
More seriously, you cannot be a GOP office holder these days unless you accept Donald Trump as your Lord and Savior.
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shotofchinaco · 4 months
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Mike Luckovich: GOP Thanksgiving
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decembersoul · 4 days
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labelleizzy · 10 months
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speakfeed · 3 months
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lost-carcosa · 10 months
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And we’ve already seen Trump light the fuse with his MAGAtard base. (See January 6)
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saywhat-politics · 4 months
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aunti-christ-ine · 8 months
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Mike Luckovich
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Why Nikki Haley’s answer omitting slavery as a cause of the Civil War matters.
What happened.
At a campaign event in New Hampshire, a member of the audience asked Nikki Haley to identify the causes of the Civil War. She gave an evasive answer that omitted slavery as a cause of the Civil War. She said,
I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run. The freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do.
Haley was immediately attacked, mocked, and condemned for failing to identify slavery as a cause of the Civil War. During a Thursday morning interview, she attempted to walk back her prior answer with an equally offensive and unconvincing answer. As described in Forbes,
During the Thursday morning interview, she said the goal of the Civil War was to ensure each person has their freedom, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion and the “freedom to do and be anything they want to be without anyone or government getting in the way . . . Yes, I know it was about slavery. I’m from the South, of course I know it’s about slavery.”
Why it matters.
Haley has a history of minimizing or dismissing the role of slavery in the Civil War. The incident on Wednesday is merely the latest episode that reveals her willingness to cater to white nationalists in pursuit of elected office. As former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said,
She's smart and she knows better. And she didn't say it because she's a racist. Because she's not. I know her well and I don't believe Nikki has a racist bone in her body . . . the reason she did it is just as bad, if not worse, and should make everybody concerned about her candidacy. She did it because she's unwilling to offend anyone by telling the truth. If she is unwilling to stand up and say that slavery is what caused the Civil War because she's afraid of offending constituents in some other part of the country, if she's afraid to say that Donald Trump is unfit because she's afraid of offending people who support Donald Trump, . . . What's going to happen when she has to stand up against forces in our own party who want to drag this country deeper and deeper into anger and division and exhaustion?”
Christie is right that Nikki Haley is afraid to tell the truth. But she is also a reactionary conservative posing as a moderate. As the NYTimes noted, her failure to include slavery threatens to destroy her image as someone attractive to moderate Republicans and independents. Per the Times,
Ms. Haley’s appeal as a candidate of moderation is mixed. As governor of South Carolina, she signed some of the harshest immigration and anti-abortion laws in the country at the time, as well as a stringent voter identification law that required photo ID at the ballot box.
But Haley’s omission of slavery was not merely an act of cowardice on her part. She was promoting a dangerous revisionist history of the Civil War that has taken root in the former Confederate states. Haley is promoting the myth of the “Lost Cause” of the South—a romanticized transformation of the brutal practice of slavery into (in the words of Haley) “traditions that are noble — traditions of history, of heritage, and of ancestry.”
I highly recommend a thoughtful and detailed discussion of Haley’s dangerous answer by Joshua Zeitz in Politico, Opinion | Why Was It So Hard for Nikki Haley to Say "Slavery"? Civil War History Has the Answer.
Zeitz writes,
The Lost Cause mythology was more than bad history. It provided the intellectual justification for Jim Crow — not just in the former Confederacy, but everywhere systemic racism denied Black citizens equal citizenship and economic rights. [¶] With GOP presidential candidates waffling on the Civil War, rejecting history curricula in their states and launching political fusillades against “woke” culture, it remains for the rest of us to reaffirm the wisdom of Frederick Douglass, who in the last years of his life stated: “Death has no power to change moral qualities. What was bad before the war, and during the war, has not been made good since the war. … Whatever else I may forget, I shall never forget the difference between those who fought for liberty and those who fought for slavery.”
Nikki Haley wants to forget “the difference between those who fought for liberty and those who fought for slavery.” In pursuit of the presidency, she recasts “fighting for slavery” as “noble traditions of history, heritage, and ancestry.” Shame on her.
Haley is telling us who she is. We should believe her.
Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter
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tomorrowusa · 4 months
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Trump minions.
A reminder that Jill Stein already has a record of serving as a useful idiot for Trump. She and Trump's future National Security Adviser (and still QAnon fanatic) Michael Flynn were in Moscow in 2015 for an anniversary celebration for RT – Russia's international propaganda channel. You don't sit at Putin's table just because he enjoys your delightful dinner conversation.
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Trump himself is a useful idiot for Vladimir Putin. Hapless third party losers are useful idiots for a useful idiot. SAD!
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robynochs · 2 years
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I'm guessing the Justice Department's investigation is much farther along than is evident.
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