Quote: "I shared with our partners the information we have, the information from our intelligence, about the Russian scenario of mining the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which has obviously been approved by terrorists.

We must take very specific steps – all together in the world – to prevent any radiation accidents."

More details: Zelenskyy stressed that the world's attention to the existing Russian threat at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is "still insufficient."

P.S. In general, the world's attention to the threat posed by the Russians is insufficient. There are still a huge number of "useful idiots" who like to listen to Russian propaganda and do not think at all about what is really happening...! These idiots still think doing business with Kremlin war criminals is business as usual and no one will ask how they make a profit...?

    A short reminder that Russia is imperialist, has been imperialist for a long time, and there's no way around that fact.

Sections of the Western left have developed a narrative according to which Russia has been gradually surrounded by NATO and that supposedly "provoked" Putin. It's increasingly difficult to sustain the notion that Russia is simply "defending itself" after 24 February 2022, but the thing is - the invasion did not come out of the blue. One needs a different narrative to understand what Russia actually is: an aggressive imperialist power alongside other imperialisms.

So, a different narrative:

- 1994: Russia, with US support, acquires Ukrainian nuclear arsenal in exchange for the assurances to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity

- 1997: Russia acquires the Sevastopol naval base and almost all of the ships (82%, to be exact)... in exchange for the assurances to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity!

- 2004: Russia meddles in Ukrainian presidential elections, fighting hard to force an undemocratic fraudulent outcome, but fails

- Mid-to-late 2000s: As punishment for Ukraine electing Yushchenko, Russia uses energy blackmail, a form of economic coercion not very different from the IMF and World Bank lending and conditionality

- 2008: NATO refuses to adopt a roadmap towards Ukraine's membership and in effect postpones the decision indefinitely. Ukraine's security is in no way guaranteed, while Russia has already demonstrated the propensity to use coercion to force Ukraine to do its bidding

- 2009: Dmitry Medvedev, then president, writes to Yushchenko that "Russia does not pose and cannot pose any kind of threat to Ukraine", so seeking NATO membership is stupid. Yea, sure

- 2014: Russia, which "does not pose and cannot pose a threat to Ukraine"... annexes Crimea. Really, Dima?? I thought you were for real??

Of course, by annexing Crimea Russia not only makes all the previous statements that it "can never pose a threat to Ukraine" a ridiculous lie, but also breaks the 1994 memorandum and 1997 treaty. "We are the Kremlin. Our word is worth nothing"

- Crimea's annexation provokes armed separatism in Donbas that Russia supports and coordinates, including direct military command and control, and then completely subordinates Donbas "authorities", in effect occupying the region

- Ukraine's still not in NATO, its security is still in no way guaranteed, and the supplies of US weapons only begin in 2018. They are kept to a minimum... out of fear of provoking Russia!

- Nevertheless, on 24 February 2022 Russia launches a full-scale invasion to establish 100% control over all of Ukraine in one way or another. There is literally no military development on the ground that could have provoked the invasion. On Russia's part, it's a war of choice in exactly the same way the invasion of Iraq was a war of choice for the US in 2003.

Now, this is only the general outline. One should add Russia's drowning of Ukraine with spies and agents of influence, money to corrupt Ukrainian politicians and massive acquisition of Ukrainian assets to impose economic and political dependency.

These are well-known facts, but so many on the left refuse to see the story behind them. It's a story of decades of imperialist aggression, culminating in a war that cost 150,000 lives in 2022 alone. Any discussion of left-wing internationalism should begin with recognizing the reality of what Russia is and what it did.

It isn't just liberals who claim that House Republicans are in Putin's pocket.

Conservative Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN-02) told the host of a rightwing podcast that some of his House colleagues have been compromised by the Kremlin.

A Republican Tennessee congressman accused his colleagues of being “compromised” by Russian spies and moneyed interests, who bed and then blackmail them to sway their votes. [ ... ] “The old honeypot,” the conservative representative, continued. “The Russians do that, and I’m sure members of Congress have been caught up. Why in the world would good conservatives vote for crazy stuff like what we’ve been seeing out of Congress?” [ ... ] “You’re visiting, you’re out of the country, you’re out of town, or you’re in a motel, or bar in D.C., and some — whatever you’re into, women or men or whatever — comes up and they’re very attractive and they’re laughing at your jokes, and you’re buying them a drink,” he explained. “Next thing you know, you’re in the motel room with them naked.” “And next thing you know, you’re about to make a key vote and what happens? Some well dressed person comes out and whispers in your ear, ‘Hey, man, there’s tapes out on you,’ or ‘Were you in a motel room on whatever [date] with whoever?’” Then comes the suggestion that ��you really ought not be voting for this thing,” Burchett said.

So there are probably the equivalents of the famous "pee tapes" for members of the House GOP caucus.

Speaking of Donald Trump...

Putin ‘has Trump’s number’ and still sees him ‘as an asset’, says Fiona Hill

Vladimir Putin has had Donald Trump’s “number for some time … knows how to manipulate him” and still sees him “as an asset”, the former White House Russia expert Fiona Hill said, discussing the Russian leader and the Republican presidential frontrunner. “That’s literally [Putin’s] trump card,” Hill told the One Decision Podcast, hosted by Jane Ferguson, a reporter, and Sir Richard Dearlove, a former head of MI6, when asked if she thought the Russian president, bogged down in war in Ukraine, was betting on Trump beating Joe Biden next year and returning to power. Hill added: “The anticipation that Trump’s going to come back is something for Putin of a boon … he can play with that. He can use it as kind of a warning … scare the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the rest of the world. Putin is pretty confident, given his experiences with Trump in the past, that Trump will be quick to try to resolve the … war in Ukraine in his favor. “And, you know, obviously, Putin has had Trump’s number for some time, he knows how to manipulate him … he has been very good at the art of flattery with Trump. He sees Trump as an asset in many respects.” From 2017 to 2019 Hill was a senior national security aide in the Trump White House, eventually coming under the spotlight as a witness in Trump’s first impeachment, for seeking to blackmail Ukraine for dirt on political rivals. In 2013, she published Mr Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, a widely praised study.

Trump has done little to hide his Putin connection since 2015. Yet tens of millions of American voters can't wait to cast their votes for a Russian asset.

The Republican Party is apparently riddled with office holders doing Russia's bidding – either through blackmail or through manipulation.

The 2024 election is the clearest ever between American democracy and foreign totalitarianism. We should not take the outcome for granted.

@simonateba

Today is March 1, 2024, and because you are about to be hit by an unprecedented amount of propaganda and a deluge of disinformation from the left, I would like to state the facts again. 1- Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 when Democrat Barack Obama was in power. 2. Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 when Democrat Joe Biden was in power. 3. Vladimir Putin invaded no territory when Republican Donald Trump was in power between 2017 and 2021. 4. Special Robert Mueller concluded that Donald Trump did not connive or conspire with the Russians to win the 2016 presidential election and defeat Hillary Clinton. 5. I hate repetitions but let me repeat that the Robert Mueller investigation did not establish that Donald Trump or his campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities. 6. While in power between 2017 and 2021, Donald Trump did not start a new war, he did not enrich the military-industrial complex. 7. Claims by the mainstream media that Vladimir Putin is blackmailing Donald Trump are false. 8. Claims by the mainstream media that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russia's disinformation are false. 9. The laptop belongs to Hunter Biden and seems to show what appears to be criminal activities. He's like everyone else innocent until proven guilty. 10. Claims that the Russians are AGAIN trying to interfere in the 2024 election to elect Trump are false and seem to be disinformation by the left. 11. Claims that everyone who questions sending billions of dollars to Ukraine for a war they may likely not win makes them a Russian agent or stooge are false and disinformation by the left. 12. Donald Trump is facing four criminal indictments and 91 counts. But indictments are accusations that have to be proven in court. He's innocent until proven guilty. 13. Claims that Trump if re-elected will be deadlier than Hitler and end the presidency and democracy as we know them are unproven since he was president for four years and did not do those things. 14. Yes, Trump often says some outrageous things but he actually acted differently once in power between 2017 and 2021. 15. Claims that Tucker Carlson is a Russian agent because he interviewed Putin are false, he's a journalist who has more influence than many media houses combined. 16. Claims that everything the White House says is true and everything the Kremlin says is a lie is false. They both lie all the time, more often than they tell the truth. 17. I can go on and on, but because you will hear about Russia, Russia, Russia, disinformation, disinformation and disinformation, and election interference by the Russians every day until after the presidential election in 2024, I want you to be prepared and see everything for what it is. 18. Never forget to subscribe to my X because that's what allows me to keep doing this, to go to war every day against propaganda and disinformation, and to hit close to half a billion views here every month.

The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.

The reported dismissal and arrest of commanders leading combat effective units and formations appears to be associated with cases of insubordination. Popov flagrantly attempted to bypass Russian Chief of the General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and directly bring his complaints about the frontline in western Zaporizhia to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Seliverstov’s dismissal was a result of similar insubordination, and Russian sources claimed that Seliverstov had a reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers. Kornev may have voiced criticism of a host of potential issues on behalf of the 7th VDV Division, including the likely failure to be notified beforehand about the Russian destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station (KHPP) on June 6, reported attritional fighting that failed to eliminate a Ukrainian presence near the Antonivsky Bridge, or conditions in western Zaporizhia Oblast similar to those that Popov complained about. Ibatullin’s arrest may be associated with the 90th Tank Division’s resumption of assaults in Luhansk Oblast, where it conducted widespread offensive operations that failed to achieve territorial gains during the Russian 2023 winter offensive campaign. It is unclear why Ibatullin would have been arrested, if, indeed, he was, when the other commanders were reportedly simply removed from their commands.

Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers. Russian milbloggers shared an audio excerpt on July 16 in which the alleged elements of the 7th VDV Division threatened that they would withdraw from their positions in occupied Kherson Oblast if the Russian MoD arrests Teplinsky or threatens his life. The elements of the 7th VDV Division also claimed that they would defend Teplinsky against the Russian MoD and asserted that the high command is targeting Russia’s most combat effective commanders. This audio appeal, if legitimate, is a threat of mass desertion in the face of the enemy on behalf of Teplinsky. Desertion in the face of the enemy is a capital offense in many militaries. The VDV servicemen are blackmailing the Russian MoD to ensure that Teplinsky continues to command troops in Ukraine, despite Teplinsky’s previous affiliation with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who had led an armed rebellion on June 24 to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov.

The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine. Putin consistently bypassed or ignored the established chain of command in hopes of securing rapid successes on the battlefield throughout the war, degrading Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s authority – especially when military failures on the frontlines also eroded their reputations. Putin had cultivated an environment in which military personnel, officials, and even Russian war correspondents bypassed Shoigu and Gerasimov to present Putin their understandings of the current state of the war and recommendations for what to do. It is unusual but not unique for a commander in chief to solicit views on the war from outside experts. It is more problematic, although still not unique, for a commander in chief to solicit the views of subordinates opposed to senior leadership directly. But allowing a quasi-military commander such as Prigozhin to conduct his own campaign parallel but not subordinate to the one being executed by the formal chain of command is extraordinarily unusual and badly corrosive of the authority of the formal military leadership.

Putin also established the Russian MoD as the scapegoat for all Russian military failures, which saddled Shoigu and Gerasimov with a reputation for incompetence and failure that they are unlikely to repair. ISW previously assessed that Putin regularly grants and withdraws his support for different commanders in hopes generating rapid improvements in Russia’s military fortunes but without always doing so formally. Shoigu and Gerasimov likely expected that Putin would restore their full authority over the Russian military’s decision-making processes given their loyalty to him after Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24. Putin, however, has clearly not done so.  He has instead followed his normal pattern of seeking to divert backlash away from himself and rotating commanders instead of outright dismissing them. Intensifying insubordination and widespread outrage in response to the ongoing officer purge may force the Kremlin to reconsider its partial backing for Shoigu and Gerasimov in the wake of Wagner’s rebellion.

Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization.

The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.

snippets from recent ISW updates, this isn't even relating to the Ukrainian offensive, it's all Russian-on-Russian violence

Given that many of Europe’s populist parties have Russia-friendly inclinations, it is perhaps not surprising that they often like to parrot Kremlin talking points. These days, that includes calling for an end to Western sanctions against Moscow, as many European parties ranging from the far right to the far left have demanded.

The usual narrative behind the demand to lift sanctions against Moscow is basic: France’s National Rally, Germany’s Alternative for Germany, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban all argue that sanctions have backfired, harming European economies while not hurting Moscow. With populist parties across the European Union gearing up for elections to the European Parliament in June, such narratives will only gain in prominence. That makes it high time to debunk these erroneous claims.

The most popular talking point for Russia-friendly politicians is that sanctions are ruining European companies and consumers. The most widespread of these claims—that sanctions have caused high energy prices (and inflation) in Europe—is the easiest to disprove: It was Russia’s attack on Ukraine and gas blackmail against Europe that set off the spike in global hydrocarbon prices in early 2022. Western countries only began to impose sanctions on Russia’s energy exports in November of that year, when oil and gas prices were already in retreat.

Another claim is that sanctions are penalizing the EU’s export-oriented firms, which have lost access to the Russian market. The reality, however, is probably more benign: Russia has never been a major market for EU firms, with Russian businesses buying just 4 percent of EU exports in 2021. Considering that about half of EU exports to Russia fall under sanctions, this means that only 2 percent of EU exports are affected—hardly a make-or-break figure.

Country-level data from Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, a French research center, confirms this assessment. It shows that the impact that sanctions against Russia have on the French economy is almost negligible, with only 0.8 percent of French exports, or about 4 billion euros ($4.4 billion), affected. For perspective, this represents 0.1 percent or so of French GDP. The study only covers France, but these findings would probably not be drastically different in other EU economies. Alongside German companies, French firms were among those in Europe that had the deepest ties to Russia. This suggests that firms in many other European countries are even less affected.

Another version of the Kremlin-friendly claim that sanctions are crushing European economies rests on the idea that EU firms were forced to abandon their investments in Russia because of sanctions. The Financial Times, for instance, calculated that between the start of the full-blown invasion of Ukraine and August 2023, European businesses recorded losses of around 100 billion euros ($109.4 billion) from their Russia operations.

This figure may be accurate, but the idea that it has much to do with sanctions does not hold up to scrutiny. At this stage, sanctions do not prevent European firms from doing business in Russia except in some specific sectors, such as defense. Instead, European companies’ losses in Russia have two other causes. The first is that many companies have chosen to pull out—for fear of reputational risks or because they do not want to pay Russian taxes and thus contribute to Moscow’s war.

The second cause of losses is a spike in asset seizures, with the Kremlin forcing many European firms to sell their assets under value—in some cases for just one ruble. In other words, even in a hypothetical world without sanctions, European firms that once bet on the Russian market would now face large-scale losses. Of course, the Kremlin argues that expropriations are just a means of retaliation against sanctions. This line is only one more item in the long list of Moscow’s bogus claims that it only seeks to defend itself against Western aggression.

Another talking point that European populist politicians like to peddle is that European sanctions on Russian energy are not just costly—a false claim, as we have seen—but useless. There are several versions of this myth, but the most popular one is that the EU oil embargo and the oil price cap agreed upon by G-7 and EU member nations do not affect Russian oil producers because they were able to reroute oil shipments to India.

Indeed, Indian refiners now absorb the bulk of crude oil exports from Russia’s Baltic ports, which previously served Europe. Yet this view eclipses the fact that for Moscow, selling oil to Indian refiners is far less lucrative than selling it to Europe. Sea routes to India are far longer (and therefore costlier) than those to Europe. In addition, Indian buyers are able to drive a bargain: They believe they are doing the Kremlin a favor by compensating for the loss of the European market—and are therefore entitled to steep discounts on Russian oil.

A study from the Kyiv School of Economics shows that the damage to Russia is far from negligible. Over the past two years, the Kremlin lost an estimated $113 billion in oil export earnings, mostly due to the EU embargo on Russian oil. Last year, when both the EU embargo and the G-7/EU oil price cap became fully effective, Russia’s overall trade surplus shrank by 63 percent to $118 billion, constraining the Kremlin’s financial resources to wage the war in Ukraine.

This year may not be any better for Russian oil exporters: Last month, the Kremlin announced that oil firms would need to give up part of their profits to compensate the state for lower export earnings. For the likes of Russian oil company Rosneft, this is the first time that Moscow is asking domestic energy firms for direct help in financing the war effort.

As sanctions enforcement steps up, the idea that sanctions are useless will hold even less water. Since October, the United States imposed sanctions on 27 tankers that had been transporting Russian oil in circumvention of the G-7/EU oil price cap, a measure that makes it illegal for any firm based in either bloc to do business with these tankers. This highlights a drastic change in Western sanctions interpretation. Until recently, the price cap only applied when a G-7 or EU-based shipping or insurance company was involved in transporting Russian oil. Washington now interprets the link to Western companies far more broadly.

For example, Liberia-flagged tankers, which make up a significant share of Russia’s ghost fleet, are now liable to the oil price cap because Liberia outsources its flagging operations to a U.S.-based company. In parallel, Western countries have stepped up pressure on Indian refiners in a bid to prompt them to ditch Russian supplies. To the Kremlin’s dismay, these efforts appear to be effective: Since the start of this year, Indian imports of Russian crude have gradually dropped by about one-third from their May 2023 peak.

The populists’ argument that sanctions harm Europe more than they hurt Russia does not hold up to scrutiny. The reality is that the impact of these measures on European companies is small, whereas Russia is facing increasing headwinds as it tries to reroute its crude away from Europe.

The claim that sanctions are costly and ineffective is easy to debunk, but this narrative does not appear likely to go away any time soon. As Russia-friendly politicians step up their campaigning for the European Parliament and other elections, one can only expect these talking points to become ever more prevalent in the coming weeks. That may be yet another sign that these myths are wrong: If sanctions were not having a serious effect on Russia, the Kremlin and its allies in the West would probably not spend as much energy trying to undermine them.

Today, a rather predictable statement came from Russia – a statement that they are finally canceling the grain export initiative. But in fact, this is not the decision they made today.

Russia began deliberately aggravating the food crisis back in September, when it blocked the movement of ships with our food. From September to today, 176 vessels have already accumulated in the grain corridor, which cannot follow their route. Some grain carriers have been waiting for more than three weeks. Algeria, Egypt, Yemen, Bangladesh, Vietnam, others countries – very different countries, from different parts of the world... But they can all be equally destabilized by this Russian decision to block exports.

Why a handful of people somewhere in the Kremlin can decide whether people in Egypt or Bangladesh will have food on their tables? A strong international response is needed now. Both at the UN level and at other levels. In particular, at the level of the G20.

Ukraine has been and can continue to be one of the guarantors of global food security. Russian terror and blackmail must lose. Humanity must win. I thank everyone who is fighting with us to restore peace and stability to international relations!

- Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 29.10.2022

A resident of Mahilioŭ was detained. They say: for participating in rallies abroad.

In the summer of 2023, the girl returned to Belarus from Poland.

In the GUBAZIKA video, Valerija says that she worked in a salon in Warsaw, which was "managed by a bechebeshivka (white-red-white supporter), which forced her to participate in diaspora actions and express solidarity with Ukraine, to post photos on social networks under the threat of being fired."

It should be noted that Lukashenko's police officers systematically force arrested persons to read the texts required by the authorities through blackmail or torture. This is how 59-year-old teacher Alena Ćimbalist recently described it

.

You would say it's because someone made her photo, but in fact, the prorussian regime in Belarus often finances such rallies abroad to find out who is against russia. Most likely, someone in the Polish government or someone, who "covers" such rallies financially, works with kremlin and betrays people.

If I were Polish, I would conduct a journalistic investigation or hire a detective, to find out who wants russia to destabilise Poland, come and "liberate" it. This is not the first time I have heard about such detainees, and for some reason, I never heard such stuff happen in Lithuania. 🤔

The symbols of Russian imperial policy include, in particular:

monuments dedicated to persons who held senior positions in government and administrative bodies, political organisations, parties, armed formations of State entities of Russia and who participated in or contributed to the implementation of Russian imperial policy;

monuments dedicated to individuals who publicly supported, glorified or justified Russian imperial policies, called for Russification or Ukrainophobia;

names of geographical objects and objects of local toponymy in honour of the persons mentioned above or names in honour of Russian cities and other geographical, historical and cultural objects of Russia;

flags and anthems of Russian state entities.

In order to comply with the requirements of this law, state authorities and local self-government bodies must remove from public spaces monuments dedicated to persons involved in the implementation of Russian imperial policy, as well as rename streets, squares, parks, squares, and geographical objects that contain symbols of Russian imperial policy.

P.S. Very good law! Symbols are much more important than people want to admit! Ask why every empire builds its monuments in the conquered lands, think again why imperialists and dictatorial regimes cry so much when these monuments are torn down! Aggressor culture and imperial propaganda are as much instruments of conquest as invading armies, prisons and concentration camps.

Daily Wrap Up July 20, 2022

Under the cut:

Russian missile strikes kill three in Kharkiv, including a 13-year-old boy

The EU accuses Russia of blackmail over gas supplies

Russia may seek to occupy more territory in Ukraine, says foreign minister Lavrov

The US will provide four more precision rocket systems to Ukraine

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense is going to hand over additional M113 and M577 armored personnel carriers, as well as ammunition, to Ukraine

Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska asked the United States to send air defense systems to her country in an address to lawmakers in the US Congress in person in Washington, D.C.

“Russian missile strikes in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv killed a 13-year-old boy as he waited at a bus stop on Wednesday, according to local officials.

Reuters photojournalists captured the boy’s father kneeling next to his covered body while holding his hand.

Rescue workers carried away another body on a stretcher and a nearby mosque was badly destroyed.

According to Oleh Synehubov, the governor of the Kharkiv region, three people were killed in Kharkiv on Wednesday – the teenager plus a man and a woman.

It was unclear if all three died at the bus stop together.

He said the dead teenager’s 15-year-old sister had also been wounded but did not give their names.”-via The Guardian

~

“The European Union has set out emergency plans to reduce its gas use amid fears Russia could cut off its supply in winter.

It has proposed a voluntary target for countries to restrict its usage by 15% from August until March, accusing the Kremlin of weaponising gas exports.

“Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon,” the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a news conference.

“And therefore, in any event, whether it’s a partial, major cut-off of Russian gas or a total cut-off of Russian gas, Europe needs to be ready.”

She warned that almost half of member states were already affected by the reduced gas flow from Russia, which has fallen below 30% of the 2016-2021 average.

Under the plans, the EU would be able to make the cutback mandatory if there seemed a substantial risk of severe gas shortages.

The proposal needs to be approved by a majority of EU countries, with its diplomats set to discuss it on Friday.”-via The Guardian

~

“Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, has said that Moscow wants to permanently occupy broad swaths of southern Ukraine in the clearest signal yet that the Kremlin is preparing to launch a new round of annexations.

In televised remarks, Lavrov also said Russia may seek more territory along the frontlines in Ukraine, calling it a buffer against the Himars long-range rocket artillery provided by the US.

While Lavrov claimed Russia’s new territorial ambitions were driven by the course of the war, the initial invasion sought to occupy much of Ukraine’s south and capture the capital, Kyiv.

Despite that evidence, the Kremlin has maintained that it launched its attack to protect its proxy governments in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“Now the geography is different,” Lavrov said, in a change of rhetoric from the Russian government. “It’s not just Donetsk and Luhansk, it’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and a number of other territories. And this is an ongoing process, consistent and insistent.”

His remarkswere also an admission that the invasion was designed as a war of conquest, despite early denials from the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, that Russia planned to occupy any new Ukrainian territory at all.

The Russian government has sought to integrate Donetsk and Luhansk by introducing the Russian rouble, Russian telecommunications networks and other infrastructure, and by crushing protests and local dissent.

John Kirby, spokesperson for the US national security council, said Russia was planning to annex more Ukrainian territory, possibly in September to coincide with regional elections.

“Russia is beginning to roll out a version of what you could call an annexation playbook, very similar to the one we saw in 2014,” he said, referring to when Russia annexed Crimea.

“The Russian government is reviewing detailed plans to purportedly annex a number of regions in Ukraine, including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, all of Donetsk and Luhansk,” Kirby said on Tuesday, a day before Lavrov’s interview went public.

It was not clear what other territories Lavrov was referring to in his remarks.

In remarks to the RT editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, Lavrov also said Russia would seek more territory due to the western military aid to Ukraine, in particular the delivery of Himars missile systems that have destroyed a number of Russian military command posts.

“The west … in a desire to maximally exacerbate the situation have pumped Ukraine with more and more long-range weapons,” he said, citing a Ukrainian defence minister’s remarks that Ukraine was negotiating for munitions that could strike targets 300 km away. “That means our goal will be to move them back from the current line even further.

“Because we can’t allow that in that part of Ukraine which will be controlled by [Volodymyr] Zelenskiy or whoever replaces him, there were weapons that could present a direct threat to our territory.”

Russia has launched cruise missiles into Ukrainian cities far behind the frontlines. A recent attack on the western Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia left 25 dead, including several children.”-via The Guardian

There’s more information in this article from Reuters.

~

“The US will provide four more precision rocket systems to Ukraine to assist it in its fight against Russian forces, US defense secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday.

On Tuesday, his Ukrainian counterpart requested Washington to send more M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), saying Kyiv’s forces have used them to destroy some 30 Russian command stations and ammunition depots so far.”-via The Guardian

~

“The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense is going to hand over additional M113 and M577 armored personnel carriers, as well as ammunition, to Ukraine.

"European Truth" writes about this in a statement from the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania.

"In the near future, Lithuania will provide Ukraine with additional military support - M113 and M577 armored personnel carriers, which are very much needed by Ukraine, as well as ammunition necessary for the preparation of the reserve," said Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anushauskas at a meeting of the NATO Coordination Group for Ukraine Support.

He emphasized that thanks to the given or promised number of M113s, this armored vehicle is becoming a significant part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Lithuania contributes to this to a large extent.”-via Euro Integration (Ukrainian language source)

~

“Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska asked the United States to send air defense systems to her country in an address to lawmakers in the US Congress on Wednesday in Washington, DC.

“Unfortunately the war is not over, the terror continues and I appeal to all of you, on behalf of those who were killed, on behalf of those people who lost their arms and legs, on behalf of those who are still alive and well, and those who wait for their families to come back from the front. I’m asking for something I would never want to ask, I am asking for weapons,” she told lawmakers. “Weapons that would not be used to wage a war on somebody else’s land but to protect one’s home and the right to wake up alive in that home. I’m asking for air defense systems in order for rockets not to kill children in their strollers,” Zelenska continued.

The Ukrainian first lady went on to say that she, like many Ukrainian mothers, craves a sense of normality and wishes they could give their children hope in the future.

“Will my son be able to return to his school in the fall, I don’t know, like millions of mothers in Ukraine. Will my daughter be able to go to university at the beginning of the academic year and experience normal student life? I cannot answer,” she said.

“We would have answers if we had air defense systems,” Zelenska added. Zelenska also thanked the United States for all the aid the country had already sent to Ukraine.

“The American people and American families, Congress and President Biden have already done a lot to help us to stand up to the enemy and protect millions of Ukrainians. We are grateful – really grateful – that the United States stands with us in this fight for our shared values of human life and independence,” she said.

“While Russia kills, America saves and you should know about it, we thank you for that,” Zelenska added.”-via CNN

#Bakhmut may very well end up being the catalyst for a Russian civil war. 

1) Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. 

He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences. 

2) Prigozhin has Putin's blessing as head of Wagner PMC, a mercenary group established and largely controlled by the FSB & GRU (Russian Military Intelligence). 

3) Army and intel services famously hate each other. The jockeying for power between the various factions has been ongoing. 

4) Expect Wagner PMC to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army. 

This is a perfect way for Prigozhin to setup Shoigu and other generals. 

5) For May 9th, Ukrainians may end up controlling all of Bakhmut, and possibly much, much more. This would have highly unpredictable domino effects domestically in Russia. 

6) Right now, the Russian Game of Thrones is just backstabbing, scheming in the shadows, assassinations, and so on. 

But Bakhmut may turn out to be the catalyst to ignite a 'hot' civil war among the factions in Russia.

Just published by Osechkin: 

"We are witnessing the process of closing down the Wagner PMC and ending the use of Yevgeny Prigozhin for military purposes. 

The coming weeks will show a lot. 

The source reports that dozens of search warrants have already been prepared for Prigozhin's and his associates' residences. 

There is also information about a series of searches of Wagner PMC members, seizures of unregistered weapons and interrogations about Wagner PMC's war crimes." 

 It appears the Kremlin and Defence Ministry want to maximally distance themselves from Prigozhin's war crimes. 

 This begs the question - why wouldn't Prigozhin give up Bakhmut and royally screw over Shoigu and the entire MoD for May 9th? https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1648013152414732288?t=l_KZEdYKsdF6N-_c2bnk2w&s=19

Just in from Osechkin: 

Prigozhin has not been invited to the May 9th Soviet Victory Parade on the Red Square. 

Wagner PMC will have no presence at the parade in any form whatsoever, including simple attendance. According to Osechkin's sources, FSB investigators are collecting criminal evidence against Prigozhin and Utkin through interrogations Wagner members. Several Wagner members are already in prison. Prigozhin claims to have kompromat on Shoigu, Ivanov (deputy Defence Minister), and Tsallikov (deputy Defence Minister) at the Defence Ministry and appears to be blackmailing them. 

 He has already publicly thrown under the bus several officials who were his accomplices at the MoD , including deputy Defence Minister Mizintsev and Surovikin, former Commander of the Russian forces for invasion of Ukraine demoted back in January 2023. https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1512298526612418578

POKROVSK, Ukraine (AP) — Russia opened a new front in its war in Ukraine on Wednesday, cutting NATO members Poland and Bulgaria off from its gas, a dramatic escalation in the conflict that is increasingly becoming a wider battle with the West.

One day after the United States and other Western allies vowed to speed more and better military supplies to Ukraine, the Kremlin upped the ante, using its most essential export as leverage. It then went even further, saying Russia could halt gas supplies to other European customers.

European gas prices shot up on the news that Poland and Bulgaria were cut off, a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail.”

Thanks to Ukrainian drones, the Russian guided missile corvette Ivanovets is now sleeping with the fishes. BTW, great vid above! 🇺🇦❤️

Ukraine thought to have sunk Russian warship near occupied Crimea

Ukrainian forces are believed to have sunk the Russian Ivanovets warship near occupied Crimea in a sophisticated overnight attack by multiple sea drones, demonstrating Kyiv’s expanding power in the Black Sea. Ukraine’s military intelligence published a grainy video showing several sea drones attacking the Russian corvette, ending with three dramatic images showing it listing, exploding and sinking into the water. Ukraine said the boat had been sunk, as did leading Russian military bloggers. Hours later, western officials said they believed the warship had been destroyed in an attack that used long range uncrewed drones. [ ... ] Russia did not immediately comment on the incident, but a number of pro-Kremlin military bloggers close to Moscow confirmed that the Ivanovets warship was hit. [ ... ] Although Ukraine began the war with no navy, scuttling its only frigate to prevent it from falling into Russian hands, Kyiv has gradually pushed back on Moscow’s early dominance of the Black Sea through long range missile attacks and the innovative use of sea drones.

Considering that the Vermont National Guard probably has more military ships than Ukraine, the Ukrainian Navy now terrifies the Russian Black Sea fleet. There's little Russian presence in the western part of the sea these days.

The Ivanovets probably thought it was safe where it was anchored. It was in a body of water called Lake Donuzlav in occupied Crimea. Though it is more like a bay with a narrow opening to the Black Sea.

^^^ That opening is just 435 meters wide, a little over 4.5 US football fields. But Ukrainian sea drone pilots managed to navigate several of their kamikaze vessels into the bay without being detected up to that point.

The sinking of the Ivanovets is just one of several bits of good news for Ukraine in the past few days.

Putin toady Viktor Orbán, the homophobic leader of Turkey Hungary, was forced to back down from his threat to block €50 billion in aid to Ukraine.

EU agrees €50bn package for Ukraine as Viktor Orbán bows to pressure

A robust and united position among EU member states convinced Viktor Orbán to end his “blackmail” and support a €50bn (£43bn) funding package for Ukraine, European prime ministers have said. The Hungarian prime minister, who had been vowing to block the funds since December, performed one of the fastest U-turns seen at a leaders’ summit after six weeks of brinkmanship. There was relief that the deal was finally done but also a sense of fury among leaders who had been dragged to Brussels for the second time in as many months to try to get the package over the line after Orbán blocked the aid in December. The Finnish prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said: “Nobody can blackmail 26 countries of the EU. Our values were not for sale.” Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, who said he had “nothing nice” to say to the Hungarian prime minister, warned there would be no reward for Orbán or anyone who had tried to solicit “rotten compromises”.

Also, Dark Brandon strikes again! President Biden is using his discretionary powers as commander-in-chief to get some military aid to Ukraine while the House Putin Caucus at the direction of sex offender Donald Trump continues to block Biden's $61 billion aid package.

First Ecuador, Now Greece: Joe Biden Is Finding More And More Countries To Help Him Arm Ukraine

“Ring-trade.” Remember that term. Increasingly, it’s how U.S. president Joe Biden is arming Ukraine. He did it with Ecuador. Now he’s doing it with Greece, too. A ring-trade is, in essence, a circular swap. One country pays or arms a second country so the second country can arm a third country. Germany pioneered the ring-trade—Ringtausch—for supporting Ukraine, most notably giving to... The Czech Republic: 14 Leopard 2 tanks and an engineering vehicle in exchange for the Czech Republic having given to Ukraine potentially dozens of T-72 tanks; Greece: 40 Marder fighting vehicles so that Greece could donate to Ukraine 40 BMP-1 fighting vehicles; Slovakia: 15 Leopard 2A4s to compensate for 30 BVP-1 fighting vehicles Slovakia donated to Ukraine. Slovenia: 45 military-grade heavy trucks so that Slovenia would give to Ukraine 28 M-55S tanks. The United States with its greater stocks of old weapons eventually could surpass Germany as a ring-trader. And it has every reason to do so. For four months now, a small contingent of pro-Russia Republican lawmakers, led by the extremist speaker of the U.S. House Mike Johnson, has blocked $61 billion in new U.S. government funding for Ukraine’s war effort. In early January, Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa revealed in a radio interview that Ecuador would give to the United States “scrap” weapons in exchange for new weapons—worth $200 million—that the United States would provide at a later date. The United States then would donate the “scrap” to Ukraine. Some of that old hardware apparently shipped aboard an Antonov An-124 airlifter on Jan. 25. [ ... ] According to Greek newspaper Kathimerini and other media, the Biden administration offered the government in Athens three 87-foot Protector-class patrol boats, two Lockheed Martin C-130H airlifters, 10 Allison T56 turboprop engines for Lockheed P-3 patrol planes plus 60 M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and a consignment of transport trucks. In exchange for this largess, the Americans want the Greeks to donate more weapons to the Ukrainians. “We continue to be interested in the defense capabilities that Greece could transfer or sell to Ukraine,” Blinken wrote. The Greek government reportedly already has earmarked old weapons for onward transfer to the government in Kyiv. As with Ecuador, the trade could involve air-defense equipment: S-300 and Hawk long-range missiles and launchers and Tor and Osa short-range missiles and launchers. This indirect U.S. support of Ukraine via ring-trades is necessary because, starting in October, Republicans in the U.S. Congress made it clear they probably never will approve additional direct military aid to Ukraine. [ ... ] [L]ook for Biden to get more creative as Republican intransigence persists. The president even could donate excess defense articles directly to Ukraine, and in large quantities, assuming Ukraine or some other country pays for shipping.

“Blackmailing Putin into Negotiation”. The Arrest Warrant and the British Plan

A move aimed at putting pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia. In recent days, the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant against the Kremlin’s number one, accused of deporting Ukrainian children. Behind this judicial decision is a political movement, aimed at opening serious peace negotiations. And the Repubblica reveals another…

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Russian occupation officials may be accelerating their preparations for illegitimate pseudo-referenda on the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ivan Fedorov, reported on August 7 that resistance among Ukrainian residents has forced Russian authorities to “constantly” change their plans for a referendum. Fedorov claimed that occupation authorities had planned a single day of voting but are now considering seven days of “voting from home” in which armed Russian military personnel will go house to house and “interview” Melitopol residents. Fedorov claimed that only about 10% of the civilians remaining in Melitopol support Russia’s occupation and warned that Russian soldiers will threaten to shoot residents who do not vote for annexation. Ukrainian Kherson Administration Advisor Sergey Khlan noted that occupation authorities have not fully set conditions for a referendum as of August 7 but are accelerating their preparation after a three-week pause in preparations, which Khlan attributed to Ukrainian HIMARS attacks on Russian occupation logistics. Occupation authorities could also alter the timeline of their sham referenda in response to changing realities on the ground, including a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Khlan reported that the preliminary referendum date remains September 11.

By removing in-person voting options and transitioning to house-to-house surveys, Russian occupation authorities are increasing their opportunities to directly intimidate Ukrainian civilians. This effort is unnecessary to rig the vote to the outcome the Kremlin desires but does make any independent oversight of the vote nearly impossible. Occupation authorities may also turn these “surveys” into intelligence gathering operations to weed out Ukrainian opposition in occupied areas. Removing in-person polling stations removes many requirements for bureaucrats to staff those locations. Russian forces have struggled to recruit people into these positions from occupied populations. In-home voting also limits opportunities for partisan attacks on those locations.

The Kremlin may order different types of voting in different occupied locations depending on perceived local support, perceived risk of partisan attacks, and bureaucratic capacity. For example, the Ukrainian head of the Luhansk Oblast Civil-Military Administration, Serhiy Haidai, reported on August 7 that Russian occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast have identified venues to host their sham annexation referendum in person. Haidai reported that Russian occupation authorities are actively campaigning for annexation by distributing propagandist newspapers and tying the provision of humanitarian aid including food, water, and construction materials to participate in the pseudo-referendum. Haidai said that the practice amounts to blackmail: “we [the Russians] will help you [Ukrainian civilians] meet your basic needs, while you go to the ‘referendum.’ Otherwise, die, and we will fabricate the result without you.” Russia has occupied parts of Luhansk Oblast since 2014 and likely has greater capacity to mobilize collaborators to administer polling stations than in newly occupied areas. ISW reported on August 3 that occupation authorities in Donetsk Oblast may allow in-person and online participation, providing multiple levers for Russian officials to alter the results.

the other difficulty with self-determination is coming up with a measurement of majority opinion that anyone is willing to accept