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[ad_1] EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — An explosion last week, in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killed two people and created heightened concern about just how quickly the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict. The Cipher Brief compiled a tic-toc of what happened, telling the story of how a single missile brought into sharp focus, the risks that are truly at play in Ukraine. BACKGROUND Polish Radio ZET reported that two stray missiles caused the blast. The Associated Press cited a senior US intelligence official saying Russian missiles had crossed into Poland. The Pentagon initially said it could not confirm reports that Russian missiles had landed in Polish territory.   The Russian Defense Ministry denied the reports, calling the allegations “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.”  It added that Russia did not hit targets near the Ukrainian-Polish border and that debris found at the site of the blasts had “nothing to do with Russian weapons.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said, without providing evidence, that Russian missiles hit Poland. He called the attack on “the territory of our friendly country” an “attack on collective security” and said it marked a “significant escalation” in the conflict with Russia. In response to the blasts, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Marawiecki held an emergency Security Council meeting. The Polish government also raised military readiness. Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke with President Joe Biden about the blasts. The White House said Biden reiterated to Duda that the US has an “ironclad commitment to NATO.”  Duda also discussed the incident with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said it was important to find all the facts behind the causes of the explosion. A Polish government spokesman said Poland is considering whether it will call NATO for discussions under Article 4, which states that an alliance member can call for consultations when it feels its “territorial integrity, political independence or security” are at risk. “If this was an accident, the instinct in Warsaw and Washington will be caution and restraint, with Article 4 discussions signaling the Russians not to screw up again,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Acting Director of CIA John McLaughlin told us. John McLaughlin, Former CIA Acting Director “If this was a deliberate provocation, and we will almost certainly know before long, then the Alliance will be provoked and will have to respond in some way.  The default impulse will probably be to avoid getting into a tit-for-tat between NATO and Russia.  But we might relax some of the cautions we’ve given the Ukrainians about not hitting certain Russian targets or other redlines.” The incident sparked alarm and calls for the defense of NATO territory across central and eastern Europe, putting squarely into focus the question of just how quickly NATO would be ready to launch a response and what that response might look like. Latvia appeared to explicitly accuse Russia of causing the blasts. Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks tweeted, “Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which targeted not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland.” Estonia expressed solidarity with Poland as well as its willingness to “defend every inch of NATO territory,” according to a tweet from the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, Estonia did not explicitly blame Russia for the blasts. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda likewise expressed solidarity with Poland and called for “every inch of NATO territory” to be defended, according to a tweet. He said “the cause of the explosions is not yet known,” but added that they happened as Russia launched missile strikes in Ukraine. Hungary convened a defense council meeting to discuss the blasts, as well as disruptions to oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline. “We don’t know enough yet about the strike,” cautioned Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral Jim Stavridis (Ret.). 

Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander “But assuming it was an errant missile from Russia, this provides a strong motivation to reinforce air defense along the NATO-Ukraine border at a minimum. It could also cause NATO to provide MIG-29 aircraft to the Ukrainians from Poland, with US backfilling with F-16s. And it may cause a serious discussion about putting a no-fly zone up over Ukraine, manned by NATO fighters.” The Morning After The Polish Foreign Ministry released a statement early Wednesday saying that a Russian-made missile caused an explosion in eastern Poland that killed two people.  The ministry said it summoned the Russian ambassador and “demanded immediate detailed explanations” for the blasts. Polish President Andrzej Duda then appeared to step back from a full-throated condemnation of Russia, saying there is no conclusive evidence showing who fired the missiles and that investigations are ongoing. He added that the explosion appeared to be a “one-off” incident. He also said it is likely Poland will ask for consultations under Article 4 at a planned North Atlantic Council meeting on Wednesday.  President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting of NATO and G7 leaders gathered in Bali for a G20 summit to discuss the missile blast. He told reporters that, according to “preliminary information,” he thinks “it is unlikely” the missile was fired from Russia due to its trajectory, but said he would not make any conclusions until the Polish investigation is completed. Three US officials tell The Associated Press that preliminary findings suggest that the missile that landed in Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an incoming Russian missile. Polish President Andrzej Duda says the explosion was “very likely” an “unfortunate accident” caused by an Ukrainian air defense missile, rather than any “intentional attack.” He added that the missile was “most likely” Russian-made, but that there is no current evidence that Russian forces fired it. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed Duda’s conclusion, though he emphasized that “this is not Ukraine’s fault” and that “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.” Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief, MI6 “It is, literally, a warning shot about the possibility of escalation,” Cipher Brief Expert and former Chief, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6 Sir Alex Younger told us.  “But I’m confident that Putin understands that deliberate escalation is very much not in his interest. I’d add that even if it was a Ukrainian air defence missile, the blame still lies firmly with Russia.” What Did We Learn? Among other things, we learned how dangerously close a single missile can come to escalating an already tense situation to a higher level of global conflict.  We learned how quickly information is shared and we saw how NATO countries were at least thinking about responding, if the missile had in fact, been fired by Russia.  While the lessons from this single incident are worth noting, so too is the bigger picture. “In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, the response of the West was inadequate. Russia got to hold on to 20% of the nation of Georgia,” Cipher Brief Expert and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Phil Breedlove (Ret.) told us. General Phil Breedlove (Ret.), Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander “The western world rewarded Russia’s bad behavior. In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine and took 11 or 12% of Ukrainian territory. Moscow threatened to huff and puff and blow our house down with World War III or their nukes. Once again, the west capitulated and allowed them to hang on to a big chunk of Ukraine. For the second time, we rewarded bad behavior.  We shouldn’t be surprised that we’re back now for a third time. Russia has seized another big part of Ukraine. And when the west starts to respond, Russia has huffed and puffed and threatened to blow our house down with World War III and nukes.

And they fully expect us to capitulate a third time. We in the West are at a point of decision, are we going to, for the third time, reward bad behavior? The West and the Western world have a decision to make. Mr. Putin is huffing and he’s puffing and he’s threatening to blow our house down and we need to decide how we’re going to respond.  Here’s what I know for sure: If we capitulate and allow Russia to hold onto even more Ukrainian territory, we’ll be back here again in 2025 and 2028 and 2031 and 2033. It’s time for us to step up.” Cipher Brief Writer and Researcher Ethan Masucol contributed to this piece Read more expert-driven national security insight, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief [ad_2] Source link

#Breaking: #Russian #missiles kill two people in #NATO member #Poland, #US #intelligence official says

#Breaking: #Russian #missiles kill two people in #NATO member #Poland, #US #intelligence official says

Russian missiles kill two people in NATO member Poland, US intelligence official says https://t.co/peakhWVjsd — Sky News (@SkyNews) November 15, 2022 Source: Twitter

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Alleged Russian missiles landed in Poland and killed two civilians. Ana Kasparian and Cenk Uygur discuss on The Young Turks. Watch TYT LIVE on weekdays 6-8 pm ET. http://youtube.com/theyoungturks/live Read more HERE: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/11/15/russian-missiles-crossed-into-poland-killing-2-us-official-says/10704659002/ "The U.S. government is investigating reports that Russian missiles crossed into Poland and struck a grain facility near the border of Ukraine on Tuesday, killing two people. The Associated Press reported the strikes, citing a senior U.S. intelligence official. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation, AP said. A second person confirmed to the AP that apparent Russian missiles struck a site in Poland, which is a NATO member, about 15 miles from the Ukrainian border. It was not immediately clear whether the missiles accidentally strayed into Poland or whether Poland was deliberately targeted. The missiles reportedly entered Poland as Russia pounded Ukraine’s energy facilities with its biggest barrage of missiles yet, striking targets across the country and causing widespread blackouts." *** The largest online progressive news show in the world. Hosted by Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian. LIVE weekdays 6-8 pm ET. Help support our mission and get perks. Membership protects TYT's independence from corporate ownership and allows us to provide free live shows that speak truth to power for people around the world. See Perks: ▶ https://www.youtube.com/TheYoungTurks/join SUBSCRIBE on YOUTUBE: ☞ http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=theyoungturks FACEBOOK: ☞ http://www.facebook.com/TheYoungTurks TWITTER: ☞ http://www.twitter.com/TheYoungTurks INSTAGRAM: ☞ http://www.instagram.com/TheYoungTurks TWITCH: ☞ http://www.twitch.com/tyt 👕 Merch: http://shoptyt.com ❤ Donate: http://www.tyt.com/go 🔗 Website: https://www.tyt.com 📱App: http://www.tyt.com/app 📬 Newsletters: https://www.tyt.com/newsletters/ If you want to watch more videos from TYT, consider subscribing to other channels in our network: The Watchlist https://www.youtube.com/watchlisttyt Indisputable with Dr. Rashad Richey https://www.youtube.com/indisputabletyt Unbossed with Nina Turner https://www.youtube.com/unbossedtyt The Damage Report ▶ https://www.youtube.com/thedamagereport TYT Sports ▶ https://www.youtube.com/tytsports The Conversation ▶ https://www.youtube.com/tytconversation Rebel HQ ▶ https://www.youtube.com/rebelhq TYT Investigates ▶ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwNJt9PYyN1uyw2XhNIQMMA #TYT #TheYoungTurks #BreakingNews 221115__TA01 by The Young Turks

According to a US official | Russian missiles penetrated Poland, killing two people

According to a US official | Russian missiles penetrated Poland, killing two people

(Kyiv, Ukraine) A senior US intelligence official says Russian missiles entered NATO member Poland, killing two people. Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information, but said senior leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation”. Polish media reported that two people died on Tuesday afternoon after a projectile hit an area where…

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Russian missiles kill two people in NATO member Poland, intelligence official says

Russian missiles kill two people in NATO member Poland, intelligence official says

Russian missiles have crossed into Nato member country Poland, killing two people, a senior US intelligence official has claimed. Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information. But he said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a ‘crisis situation’. According to Polish media, two people died on Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an…

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US official: Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing 2

US official: Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing 2

By JOHN LEICESTER KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people. Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information, but said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.” Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a…

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The expulsions brought into focus the disconnect between aggressive actions taken against the Kremlin by the Trump administration and the president’s public eagerness to have a cooperative relationship with Mr. Putin. Mr. Trump has staunchly resisted criticizing the Russian president, even as he imposed sanctions on a series of Russian organizations and individuals for interference in the 2016 presidential election and what the administration called other “malicious cyberattacks.”

Mr. Trump, who energetically comments on almost any other subject on Twitter or in encounters with reporters, stayed conspicuously silent on the showdown with Russia on Monday, leaving it to aides to explain his decision.

“The only real conclusion to draw is there is something of a divide,” said Thomas Wright, the director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. “They may have convinced him to sign off, but he doesn’t want to be the face of it. He could have resolved this any day with a 10-minute appearance. That’s the part that’s puzzling to me.”

Michael Anton, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said Mr. Trump deserved credit for organizing the joint response and expressed frustration at the perception that the president had not been firm enough with Russia.

“No matter what we do, it’s like, ‘You guys are soft on Russia,’” he said. “What do we have to do to show that we’re tough? We just coordinated a 22-nation action and kicked out 60 Russians.”

Mr. Anton said the president did not publicly excoriate Russia for its actions because he wanted to maintain a constructive relationship at the level of the countries’ leaders. “Happy talk on one phone call is better than belligerent talk on one phone call,” he said.

Speaking from the White House lectern on Monday, Raj Shah, a White House spokesman, called the poisoning attack “brazen” and “reckless,” and said that it impeded Mr. Trump’s continued desire to foster a constructive relationship with the Russians.

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“We want to have a cooperative relationship,” Mr. Shah said. “The president wants to work with the Russians, but their actions sometimes don’t allow that to happen.”

Indeed, aides were intent on describing a president who was keenly aware of Russian misbehavior. One official, who was not authorized to publicly describe the president’s private conversations, said Mr. Trump sounded aggressive about Moscow during a discussion with advisers in the Oval Office on Friday, calling Russia’s actions of late “dangerous.”

The American expulsion order was designed to root out Russians actively engaging in intelligence operations against the country, White House officials said. Those expelled included 12 people identified as Russian intelligence officers who have been stationed at the United Nations in New York, and 48 operating under the Russian Embassy in Washington. The Russians and their families have seven days to leave the United States, according to officials. American officials estimate that there are more than 100 Russian intelligence officers in the United States.

The Trump administration also announced that it would close the Russian Consulate in Seattle because of its proximity to Naval Base Kitsap, one of two American naval bases that house a fleet of nuclear-powered, ballistic missile-carrying submarines.

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Mr. Shah said the president took a proactive role in speaking with foreign leaders and encouraging others to join the efforts. White House officials who described the expulsion order said it had coordinated with about a dozen American allies. A British official said London’s diplomats, military officers and intelligence officials had spoken with their American counterparts on a daily, even hourly, basis since the attack on Mr. Skripal.

The Kremlin has maintained that it had nothing to do with the poisoning. In a statement released by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday, officials accused British authorities of “a prejudiced, biased as well as hypocritical stance” in carrying out the expulsions, and castigated European Union and NATO member countries for following suit.

“It goes without saying that this unfriendly move by this group of countries will not go unnoticed, and we will respond to it,” the statement read.

Current and former diplomats said the real test of the expulsions would be if they served to deter Russia from further intervention in other countries.

“The key question for me is whether all this — and whatever else is to follow — will finally persuade Putin that the cost of killing off enemies and ‘traitors’ and subverting other people’s societies in order to ‘make Russia great again’ just isn’t worth it,” said Peter Westmacott, a former British ambassador to the United States. “That would be a great prize for the free world, and for British diplomacy.”

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Poland has positioned itself to take a lead role in coordinating a response from the Eastern European nations traditionally most wary of their giant neighbor to the east. Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz called the incident in Britain an “unprecedented attack on civilians with the use of chemical weapon, unseen in Europe since World War II.”

The expulsion of Russian diplomats was an unprecedented move by Warsaw, the first time it has taken diplomatic action against its neighbor because of Russian behavior outside of Poland.

Germany’s move not only signaled solidarity with London, but also suggested the incoming foreign minister, Heiko Maas, may be more hawkish toward Moscow than his predecessor.

“The attack in Salisbury shook us all in the European Union,” Mr. Maas said. “For the first time since the end of World War II, a chemical war agent was used in the middle of Europe.”

Mr. Maas said Germany did not take the decision “flippantly.”

“But the fact and indications point to Russia. The Russian government has so far not answered any of the open questions and has shown no readiness to play a constructive role in solving this attack,” he said.

Mr. Trump’s decision to join a united front against Russia came amid a personnel churn in the White House as numerous aides, including his national security adviser, Army Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, have said they will leave the administration. Last month, Mr. McMaster called evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election “incontrovertible.”

His words angered the president, who remains anxious over the continued investigation into his campaign’s contact with Russian officials. Mr. Trump publicly rebuked General McMaster on Twitter for forgetting “to say that the results of the 2016 election were not impacted or changed by the Russians and that the only Collusion was between Russia and Crooked H, the DNC and the Dems,” referring to his Democratic election opponent, Hillary Clinton.

The harsher stance on Russia will also prove to be an early test of the ideological compatibility of the president’s newly revamped national security team. Last week, Mr. Trump announced that he would replace General McMaster with John R. Bolton, long a vocal critic of Mr. Putin who has called Russian interference in the 2016 election “a true act of war.” Mike Pompeo, the nominee for secretary of state, has been quieter with his criticisms.

And then there is the president himself, whose public declarations have repeatedly found themselves in conflict with the policy decisions rolled out in his White House. Brian McKeon, who served as a chief of staff of the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, said the staff disruptions were sure to play out if the Trump administration was considering taking further action against Russia.

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“Bolton’s worldview is that there should be more” measures, including sanctions, Mr. McKeon said. “I don’t think that’s the president’s view.”

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via The Trump Debacle