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Not that it’s important but allow me to walk you through my day. Perhaps, like Icarus, I applied for an additional hockey writing job and started getting my hopes up. I awoke to the email saying that I didn’t have enough Twitter followers to be considered any further, after impressing with a resume, cover letter, and writing samples.
Disappointing for me, yes, but it’s fine. I took to Twitter, where I’ve been a reader alone (well occasionally a liker and follower), trying to change my username and take a look at how I can accomplish my goal.
Keep in mind, I have my own personal blog and my role at The Oilers Rig where it’s been a bit too long since I wrote anything. I’ve been struggling to put my mind to paper about everything with the Blackhawks investigation, anything USA Hockey has been doing, the tone deaf (at best) Bettman and Daly interview, the disappointing update on Akim Aliu’s experiences in the NHL, to Rick Westhead’s ongoing reporting into CHL hazings and assaults, and arenas of sexist chants in youth games. Even specific to the Oilers, hearing former Blackhawks players speak about the investigation was extremely disappointing, including Duncan Keith’s not participating in the investigation and evidently not leading or helping his former teammate in any way. Finally I see a tweet from my colleague (being generous to myself there) was subjected to racial taunts at the Oilers home game against Nashville on November 3rd.
To the top of NHL related institutions the seats are growing hotter, coaches, GMs, NHLPA presidents, even the commisioner should rightly be held accountable, as should their respective institutions. The issues permeate to all levels of hockey because of their presence in the NHL, a visual example would be the use of the Blackhawks logo throughout minor hockey programs.
The point is list goes on and on, spiralling in every direction. The foremost reporter in all this, Rick Westhead, is clearly a force in holding the league itself, moreover hockey culture as a whole accountable, or at least pressing the issue, which is clearly under the league’s (read commissioner and owners) skin. It should not be taken lightly when Mr. Westhead says that hockey is a “monoculture”.
From the earliest roots of the game of hockey itself, it has been wrought with the hatreds of racism, white supremacy, sexism, and so on. As society has changed (and not changed enough) the insular world of the NHL and the institutions of North American Hockey (that’s all I can speak on) has been able to operate behind a veil afforded to most powerful establishments, but aided by a culture that is built on a certain type of silence.
Yes, a lot of the issues exist throughout life, but we have only arrived at this point because they have been promoted, fostered, and intertwined with the sport at all levels. Covering up the Kyle Beach sexual assault is a succinct example of they way that this culture can fester, especially when it is explicitly enabled, but in many more subtle or unintentional ways this occurs as well. That is why the messages and efforts in changing these institutions has to be deliberate, focused, and intentional.
Change won’t happen overnight, and already it has not happened fast enough. Players, owners, executives, fans, media, all need to evaluate their respective priorities, processes, and mindsets to change this. In so many ways the NHL is objectively behind its contemporaries in the other major sports leagues, not limited to their lack of any language, procedures, or policies regarding racism or sexual assault.
Ultimately the ink of the past is dry, so all that can be aimed for is in the future. Maybe the next NHL Commissioner or NHLPA head can be a positive force in bringing the league out of the dark. Maybe the NHLPA can band together to fight for all hockey players. There is so much that needs to done, and I’m not equipped really know how we could get there, but I think for all of us involved with the sport to start with trying to understand, acknowledge, and accept the problems that exist within it.
I am by far not an expert on a lot of what I’ve discussed in this piece, and I am thankful to have the chance to learn from so many media members, fans, and personalities that have and continue to speak out about these types of issues. As a white guy from Toronto I do not clash with hockey culture in an obvious or visible way, thus shielded from the depth of what is a very toxic space. It is steeped in the years xenophobia, racism, sexism, and more, and is a constant stream terrible actions and comments made towards those that do clash with the warped and twisted version of what the sport has become, or even has been to this point. All of it is a terrible scar that hurts the sport and everyone in or around it.
Back to myself, someone to whom the game of hockey is a part of regardless of any personal choices I make going forward. I have to be a part of pushing the game into a new and better direction. Most of that will be listening to those affected, those invested, those speaking on these issues, and much of it will be uncomfortable. That being said there will be times for action on my part, and that is something I do not exactly excel at, even when it comes to standing up for myself. In fact I’d say it’s one of the foremost areas in which I lack.
But for others, I have to try. I will say and do stupid things along the way for sure, but I have to try. I know I won’t be the one responsible for any major movements in this arena, but maybe together we have a chance.
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21/22 Power Rankings: Atlantic
TAMPA BAY
What more can be said of the back to back champs? Without many questions at any position, the Lightning are an easy choice to put first here. Although, like last season, we might see them finish somewhere after first in their division as they prioritize health into the playoffs, as the look to increase their strong chances at defending their title successfully. Sure, Johnson and Gourde are elsewhere, but Tampa has great depth with many underutilized forwards vying for playing time, not to mention Kucherov returning to regular season play. Up front, Mathieu Joseph, Ross Colton, and Alex Barre-Boulet will be looking to run with the openings before them, and in truth all 3 have already proven effective in their time filling in last season. Meanwhile a pair of veteran depth pieces come into fold as well. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is the archetypal 4th line centre, and has been the gold standard for years across many teams, IMO truly a joy. Corey Perry will join him and Patrick Maroon on what looks to be a line that will be a handful the longer the season goes.
On the back end not much needs to be said, as the likes of Hedman, McDonagh,Sergachev, Cernak, and Rutta have proven to be a force. Enter Zach Bogosian, who represents an upgrade in the spot once filled by Luke Schenn or Brayden Coburn, and potentially an appearance by Cal Foote. Of course, Vasilevskiy is the top goalie in the world, so there’s not much else one could desire in the crease.
BOSTON
Another longstanding contender who may coast thru the regular season a little, we shouldn’t expect anything less than the usual strong results for the Bruins. Some change in recent years, notably Krejci, Halak, and Miller’s departures, seem to give a different look to the roster, but the show will roll on. Taylor Hall signing at a nice AAV ensures some scoring will be present beyond The Perfection Line, but alongside Debrusk, Smith, Coyle, Haula, and Nick Foligno fills out the Bruins’ middle 6 forwards with a lot of size, speed, and skill. I know Trent Frederic will be a great Bruin because I “hate” (in a good way) him already. The sun is getting lower for Jack Studnicka’s time as a prospect, but some fans are expecting/hoping he’s ready to make a splash this season.
Charlie McAvoy gets comically little recognition as one of the league’s premier defencemen, and fits the Bruins’ historical stereotype perfectly. The good news for him is that the better part of the next decade should see him playing at a Norris Trophy level, so there’s no way that lack of appreciation can continue, right? Forbort will bring a lot of what left with Kevan Miller. Do not underestimate Connor Clifton, and especially Matt Grzelcyk, as the former BU Captain has been a crucial piece for B’s the past 4 seasons. Mike Reilly really came into his own over the past 2 seasons, and his offensive abilities are a welcome fit with the rest of the group. Perhaps we see Urho Vaakanainen force his way into a regular spot this year, but with another year before waiver eligibility it might be another season in the AHL.
Rask might return at some point, but Linus Ullmark will be looking to take off now free from Buffalo. He’s shown good results considering the team in front of him, but Boston’s strong defensive play has made it easier for all of their goalies to perform well, including the young backup Jeremy Swayman.
TORONTO
The Leafs have a lot to prove, and I’m not referencing the playoffs. Their status as a true cup contender has been us getting way ahead of ourselves, although they have the talent to get there at some point. In truth, last season was the first time the Buds paced their division, clinched a playoff spot early, or even posted top 10 goals against numbers. Obviously, last season was short and strange, so proving these things in a full season *is* the next step facing this group. They have a lot more to prove in the regular season than Tampa or Boston, so this group should be focused and ruthless in their pursuit of putting together a dominant and consistent regular season.
Admittedly as a Leafs fan, I have too many thoughts to post here regarding the specifics of the team here, so I’ll stick to some big picture analysis. If this group loses to Boston or Tampa in the first round it the year a waste or a failure? Should the coach, GM, core 4, president, be moved on from automatically? Simply put, no. I understand and appreciate the passion these thoughts come from but it’s important to maintain perspective. This team is good, the players are good, the lineup on paper is good, the prospect pool is good, the depth is intriguing, but not yet great. They have performed like a good team over the past 5 seasons, which isn’t nothing, but not like a great one. I’d argue they’ve done a good job living up to that and that we’ve misdiagnosed them as a team that is already great. Yes I’d love to win a cup or even a round here, but the standard of success and belief this organization has built for itself in the Matthews era should not be unappreciated.
FLORIDA
Like Toronto, the Panthers will be hungry to prove that winning their division last year was no fluke. Personally, I would have voted GM Zito for the Jim Gregory Trophy last season, as he managed to infuse the Panthers’ skilled lineup with some of the toughness Columbus iced during his time there. Even more important is adding such pieces that are in phase with the team’s existing age. Duclair, Bennett, and Verhaeghe are primed to show their performances last season are repeatable, while Sam Reinhardt will look to flourish in a new role on a respectable team. Tippett and Lundell give the Panthers’ lineup a tantalizing potential and could easily form into the league’s best 3rd line, and help the offence as as whole rise to the top group in the league. Perhaps we see Denisenko join them in the Panthers’ ranks at some point this season.
The defence group is really fun, especially if Aaron Ekblad can get back to full health paired alongside Mackenzie Weegar, and resume their elite play. Brandon Montour went from blue-chip to scrap heap in Buffalo, but I like his skillset a lot, especially since it compliments the ruggedness of Forsling, Gudas, and Nutivaara quite well.
The goaltending situation is talented and volatile, perhaps more so than any other team in the NHL. Sure, Bobrovsky is overpaid (contracts have disappeared before) and has struggled during his time in Florida, but stranger things have happened than the idea of him rediscovering his game. Meanwhile backup Spencer Knight has quickly risen to the NHL and has performed exceptionally at every level along the way, and on a rookie deal is underpaid, meaning for the next 3 years Bob’s contract is much more manageable. That being said, a goalie’s path especially is rarely a straight line (see Carter Hart), so it’s not unexpected or too concerning if Knight goes through a rough patch at some point. Of course, it will be on the team in front of them to help put them in a good position for success.
MONTREAL
Wow, what to make of this group. A roller coaster set of years where the Habs dredged through a regular season before a playoff glow-up, thrown in with some key injuries to Price and Weber, a rotation at centre (losing Danault and Kotkaniemi while adding Dvorak), and a full season of the dynamic Cole Caulfield, it’s hard what to make of this group. The strength of the team is along the wings, as Caulfield, Gallagher, Toffoli, Hoffman, Anderson, Drouin, Armia, Byron, and Lekhonen is a strong and deep group with a good blend of skills. Suzuki and Dvorak is a good start down the middle, and both their lines should perform well thanks to their multi-faceted games and strong linemates. Evans is valued by the organization and his responsible play fits what Montreal clearly looks for from their centres, meaning Mathieu Perrault will be well insulted as an offensively oriented bottom 6 centre.
Petry will continue to be the Habs best defenceman, while Edmundson, Chiarot, and Savard will see to it that the Habs have a defensively minded beast of an athlete on each pair. Romanov is ready for a bigger role, and is equal parts feisty and skilled. There are some wildcards as Chris Wideman returns to the NHL, after the 31 year old spent a few seasons out of the league. His offensive skillset might be a great fit. I like Kulak as a 3rd pair option, but there is a chance either Mattias Norlinder or Josh Brook factor into the mix at some point. Seeing how long it took for Romanov to (hopefully) work his way into the lineup, it seems more likely Montreal will take their time on that idea.
Price made me feel good in the playoff run, vindicating my years of support for him despite inconsistent years. He should be ready for the start of the season, and will settle into a strong groove. Allen will need to continue to play a significant amount of games. The Habs are a much stronger playoff team than regular season team, mostly due to how they defend. This is to say, these goalies will continue to have a much harder time in the regular season than they will in the post season. The hope is now that their increased firepower up front helps them clinch a playoff berth in a very competitive Eastern Conference.
OTTAWA
GM Dorion did the right thing in saying the time to compete is now in Ottawa. Although many have questioned some of their recent draft choices, the Senators clearly have a vision of what they want to be. The statement is a commitment not to tank (you might end up with a high pick anyway), to play Logan Brown, Shane Pinto, and Alex Formenton in the NHL instead of prioritizing further seasoning in the minors, to start committing to the group that you want to win with (sign Tkachuk!). Stutzle is the Ferrari, the pure offensive talent, contrasted against a group that is rugged and tenacious. That’s not to say Batherson, Norris, Pinto, White, and Logan Brown don’t have offensive tools, but with Nick Paul, Connor Brown, Austin Watson, and of course Brady Tkachuk in the fold, the forward group seems like they would take pleasure in being a thorn in opponents’ sides down to the last second of the game, no matter the score. We might even see an appearance from Yegor Sokolov, who uh, fits their personality.
Chabot leads the back end, although Artyom Zub was really good in his rookie season. We’ll be hoping to see more from Erik Brannstrom, although it seems like he may not fit what Ottawa is looking for from the blueline. Mete is a good pickup, especially considering the trading of Mike Reilly, which I did not exactly understand (see win now comments). I like Zaitsev, although at this point no one is suggesting he’s a strong top 4 option. Holden and Del Zotto are expensive depth options, perhaps Ottawa can bring out what they see in these players. Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker are good prospects, but should see more time in the minors. The best version of this defence is probably not achieved until Jake Sanderson is a strong contributor, which is a year or two away still.
Murray is interesting, maybe he can find a strong season, but it’s hard to say he’ll be getting a raise next contract. Anton Forsberg has shown signs of a decent backup amidst his bouncing around the league, but I’m a fan of young Filip Gustavsson out of the 3. He was great across 9 NHL games last season, and ideallly would start pushing Murray for the crease starting this season.
DETROIT
The Wings are poised to start peeking out of their long rebuild, as we should start to see the bones of their true team coming to the forefront. It wouldn’t be the worst to end up with a high pick (again, lottery), but I don’t think it’s end their best interest to be intentionally making their team worse at this point. Larkin, Vrana, and to an extent Bertuzzi are legitimate top 6 forwards, and there’s at least some hope (varying degrees) that Zadina, Suter, and Rasmussen can join them. The lineup up front is filled out respectably by Fabbri and Namestnikov while Gagner, Stephens, and Erne will look to cement similar roles. The real fun is in the prospects, particularly Berggren, Raymond, and Veleno have a chance to push for a spot. The most likely to make the team outright this season is Berggren, who was spectacular in the SHL last season. Some older prospects who could finally earn an NHL job are Hirose and Smith, both of whom deserve a shot at such an opportunity.
The much anticipated debut of Moritz Seider is upon us, and the Red Wings have acquired a good partner for him in veteran Nick Leddy. Although he’s not what he was at his peak, his style of play and experience make him an ideal partner to start the defenders career. Dekeyser and Hronek are a decent pair, albeit overmatched for the assignments they will no doubt receive atop the depth chart. Ideally this will help Hronek continue to improve his game. Staal brings a good veteran presence, while Stecher and Oesterle are pretty good depth options. Young Gustav Lindstrom saw 13 games of action last season, and could be a real bright spot if he’s able to play his way into a regular spot. The strengthen the organization is the glut of talented defence prospects en route, Edvinsson, Tuomisto, Johnsson, McIssac (get well!), Wallinder, Buium, Sebrango, Viro, it’s almost hard to keep track, and harder still to envision a future where Detroit’s blueline isn’t very strong. I could be wrong, but it seems intentional (and smart) to start a rebuild with a strong group of D prospects, as forwards develop faster, fall more often in the draft, and are easier to acquire than impactful defenders. It’s be great to end up with Shane Wright, but it’s more likely to add a really skilled forward between 10-20 in the first round than a bonafide defender.
Nedeljkovic isn’t the first Calder worthy goalie to get traded although a 3rd round pick is not as steep as say Tuukka Rask… He won’t have it as easy behind a much worse team this season, but has been playing well long enough that I like his chances of growing into the starter role. Griess is an accomplished tandem-backup, and will be counted on to help Nedeljkovic ease into the top role. Cossa over Wallstedt was bold, but Detroit fans should feel really good about Yzerman getting the player he liked more. The Wings have a bunch of goalies in the system born between 1997-2002, so it will be interesting to see how they all shake out in the coming years as they approach starters age.
BUFFALO
I almost feel bad about putting the Sabres last, and would encourage Leafs and Oilers fans to think about that. I do really like Coach Granato, and think that the team will show signs of a stronger direction this season. This mess with Eichel pushes this rebuild at least another year away, and reminds me of the end of Matt Duchene’s time in Colorado. It’s be hard to end up with a better haul than Girard, Byram, plus plus, but at this point it’s nothing but a negative cloud hanging above all involved. Remember, it wasn’t until Duchene was moved that MacKinnon really took off. Lofty comparison, but a new coach and atmosphere seemed to really help Dahlin, Cozens, Mittlestadt, and Jokiharju rejuvenate their careers. I like Hinostroza as a player, and with Bjork and Caggulia could help fill out the lineup with legitimate NHLers, especially considering Asplund, Ruotsalainen, and Tage Thompson are looking to carve out a role in the NHL. Quinn, Peterka, and Rosen are nice prospects but still at least a year away, so adding to this group in an Eichel deal is really important.
Pulling Dahlin out of his downward spiral is the most important step in this season. There’s really no reason, besides mismanagement, that he shouldn’t be among the league’s best young defenders at this point. Jokiharju is also still quite young, although his upside isn’t what Dahlin’s is, and it would be really encouraging to see positive growth. Colin Miller is one of the only other returning pieces on the backend, but could be serviceable with fellow NHL regulars Will Butcher and Mark Pysyk. Jacob Bryson played well in 38 games in his rookie season and figures to be in the mix once again. Further down the line, Mattias Samuelsson made an appearance in 12 NHL games last season, and will be pushing for a spot. Of course Owen Power is waiting in the wings, and another season with a strong Michigan team and a World Junior appearance, along with perhaps another World Cup appearance would go a long way towards setting the stage for an impactful rookie campaign in 22/23. Although it doesn’t look great now the Sabres’ blueline has interesting pieces in place for the coming years.
Perhaps the most underwhelming aspect of this roster is in net, where Anderson, Dell, and Tokarski are overmatched in their current slotting, as made evidence by all 3 making what is essentially league minimum. Although Luukkonen, Portillo, and Levi are interesting goalie prospects all 3 are years away at this point. It’s hard to imagine this team going anywhere given the current situation in net. No doubt making a significant upgrade here will be crucial whenever this team decides to win.
#toronto maple leafs#detroit red wings#tampa bay lightning#boston bruins#florida panthers#montreal canadiens#ottawa senators#buffalo sabres
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Leafs: New Additions
Welcome back to another year in Leaf Land, as always at a most critical nexus. There’s a lot of negativity, and as usual some of its well earned, and some of its too far. Within all that, it’s important to acknowledge the progress that this group has made, free from the fervid luster of hope offered early in the Matthews era.
The novelty of the Canadian Division, and the 4 separate leagues that took part in the 2021 season did cap the amount this team could change our minds, but having a strong and consistent regular season and finishing top 10 in goals against, was a huge development, and continuing those results to a full 82 game schedule is still an important step. In general, this fan base took the first sign of positivity and grew championship expectations, to the point where the past 2 or 3 seasons many have been saying “there’s nothing to prove until the playoffs”, and even to this point that simply isn’t true.
Mrazek
After spending a large part of the past 2 seasons desperately searching for depth and stability in the sport’s most important position, acquiring Mrazek is certainly the most important move of the offseason. He’s probably in a cluster of mid tier starters, sometimes called a tandem starter or 1B, similar to Frederick Andersen, the fact that he’s younger and cheaper than Andersen is also a plus. He’s coming off some strong seasons behind a very good Carolina team, meaning he’s been a focal point for a successful team already, although he was not the starter in each of the Hurricanes’ past 2 postseason runs. He’s started 40 games in a season twice, meaning he’ll get at most 120 games in over the course of his 3 year deal. He’s had up and down seasons, but has shown flashes of strong play. He has a flare for the dramatic, some style to his play, and entering his age 29 season should be able to deliver a strong segment of his career. The best case scenario, or perhaps a reasonable comp would be similar to what Halak has been able to bring in his 30’s, which is starter level of play over 35-45 games a season, which does fit well with the expectations on Jack Campbell to play in 40-50 games. Ultimately the hope is that Jack can really run with the starter role, but Mrazek will be keeping the level of play in net high.
Menell
Menell takes the mantle as this year’s KHL import on the blueline, a staple that’s seen Zaitsev, Ozighanov, and Lethonen pass through to varying degrees of success in recent years. Menell, unlike the others, offers a stronger resume on the smaller ice surface, putting in several strong AHL seasons with the Iowa Wild before his most recent all-star season in Russia. Similar to Lethonen, he is a strong offensive player and could figure into a role on the power play. At this point he’s done everything he can besides earn some playing time at the top level, and provides an interesting depth option to the blueline.
Dahlstrom
It can be difficult for low-scoring defensive players to stand out, and that might be the case for Dahlstrom. The 26 year old Swede has 2 years experience in the SHL, followed by 4 increasingly strong stints in the AHL, with a 35+ game run on the porous 18-19 Chicago team and 10+ games with the Jets the following year. He did eventually earn an Assistant Captain role on Chicago’s AHL affiliate. Despite all that, he’s only played 35 games or so the last 2 years, as he probably got squeezed as a fringe player throughout the first covid season. He certainly is qualified to fill in a depth role, although surely in a different style than Menell. Together they represent good reinforcements with potential upside should injuries occur. He’s big, skates well enough for his size, has some passing abilities.
Kase
Another player who hasn’t played all that much recently, Kase has fought a lot of tough injuries over the recent years. Kase is still only 25, but it was all the way back in 17-18 that he scored 29 goals as a member of the Ducks. He has posted really strong possession and shot metrics throughout his career, and plays a very rambunctious and tenacious style. Hopefully he can stay healthy and at least have a chance to continue his strong play, but with concussions we can only know so much. A one year deal means there isn’t any long term risk, and best case Kase provides some of the “all terrain” capabilities that Barclay Goodrow brought to the Lighting the past couple seasons.
Ritchie
Ritchie is a big power forward, who can manage to shovel in 10-20 goals a year. Although his career high comes from his time in Anaheim, it’s reasonable to expect he could have a career season over the 2 years of his contract. He does bring certain qualities lacking from the forward group at this point and could fit well somewhere in the top 6. Even with Hyman in the lineup, when Simmonds missed time last year there was a noticeable lack of net front presence, which Ritchie should help satisfy. Personally, I’ve spent a lot of time being thankful the Leafs took Nylander instead of Ritchie in their draft year, but Ritchie is still young at 25 and is a quality add to the forward group. He might take an excessive amount of penalties, but that could also “even out” and earn the Leafs a few more calls as well.
Kampf
As we get to our 6th addition, a pattern is clear, young free agents (mid to late 20s) who should have more in the tank than the older additions of last season, and perhaps with their best seasons in front of them. That is certainly the case with Kampf, who has already proven to be an effective bottom 6 defensive centre in the NHL. He is in crazy good shape and is good at faceoffs. In his introductory presser Dubas mentioned he’s been on the Leafs’ radar for a while, and that they saw more offensive upside to his game. He certainly has a similar style of play to Danault, helping break cycles in the defensive zone and supporting transition well up ice, and could really help unlock stronger play from the 3rd or 4th line. In particular I think he would pair really well with a strong defensive winger who can carry the puck through the neutral zone, Ilya Mikheyev, and/or David Kase.
Bunting
Bunting “came out of nowhere” to score 10 goals in 20 games for the Coyotes last season, and we should not be expecting 40 goals next year. That being said, signing him to 2 years at only $950,000 is a great deal. For the brief time Jared McCaan was a Leafs I was excited about adding a complimentary top 6 player who could shoot well to pair with Marner and Matthews. Bunting definitely has the chance to live up to that. It’s obviously not at Matthews’ level, but Bunting can score from the high to mid slot. He’s speedy enough to pressure through the neutral zone and off the rush, and has some skill in making moves to beat defenders and goaltenders. He isn’t afraid to get to the dirty areas and had a few goals tipping in shots from the point. He is also feisty, gets under opponents’ skin and hustles like his job depends on it. He said in his introductory interview that he had spent long enough in the minors that when he finally got called up last season he played with nothing to lose, and compared his style of play to Marchand. Although that is a lot of lofty rhetoric, it’s easy to see how this could be a huge win for the franchise. If he proves to be 4th line contributor it’s a good deal, but there’s good reason to be excited beyond that. It might be a bit off topic to say I think that it’s important that Matthews and Marner’s liberate has a good enough shot to capitalize on the opportunity they will have as well as the tenacity Hyman brought so effectively, and Bunting has the tools to do it.
Gabriel
Gabriel is a fighter with social media presence, and especially for a pro hockey player, tries to be inclusive. I could see him being called up and deployed circumstantially. Although Simmonds and Ritchie have both thrown their share of fists, having a DH of sorts might be useful? Regardless, as a cultural focal point of both hockey and Canada the Leafs have the opportunity and responsibility to do their part in changing our culture for the better, and considering the league minimum cap hit this signing represents checks of few different boxes in terms of “intangibles”.
Semyonov
Semyonov has played parts of 5 seasons in the KHL, including a couple deep postseason runs as a middle 6 forward and eventually became an Assistant Captain. At 26, there doesn’t seem like a great chance he’ll be a factor at the NHL level, although he should get a fair shake at training camp. It is more likely he fits in as a veteran presence on a Marlies team that will feature a lot of Russian players, from Amirov, SDA, Gogolev and Abramov. The Marlies will look to be a lot stronger this year and those 5 forwards will look to be a big part of that. He gets to the net and most of his goals will be from rebounds and scrambles in front. He has some good puck skills, which will be shown off with some fancy passes. He’s big and fast enough to have some effect on the forecheck.
Way Too Early Lines
Bunting Matthews Marner
Kerfoot Tavares Nylander
Mikheyev Kampf Kase
Ritchie Spezza Simmonds
Engvall Brooks
Reilly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Dermott
Liljegren
Campbell
Mrazek
Hutchinson
Notes on fringe players
Mikheyev has been taking some heat recently. He clearly had trouble converting chances into goals and his wrist injury could have been a huge factor in losing confidence. He is good defensively, and is a strong enough skater that he’s able to transition through the neutral zone really well. Despite being a powerful skater he does seem to look a bit like an old man at times. It’s easy to see how he could be similar to former Leaf Michael Grabner, in that whether he is converting on breakaways or not could fluctuate his goal totals enough to drastically change opinions year to year (both are strong on the pk as well).
Engvall shows flashes of brilliance in a lot of ways. Speed and size to defend well, soft hands and really good passes, scoring touch, but somehow looks like he has trouble putting it all together. Dubas and Keefe have had him for a long time, and with one year left on his deal it might be his best chance at becoming an NHL regular.
Brooks will have to replicate his strong play from last year. He looked really strong alongside Spezza, where he was able to use his hockey sense and passing skills to his advantage. It is not a given that he’ll be able to, but he’s continued to show signs of growth so maybe he can continue to surpass expectations with more opportunities.
Liljegren has all the physical tools to be a good NHL defender, skates and passes well enough to beat forechecks, physical enough to play the body, but he’s looked a bit lost at times. I think with strength and experience we’ll see him settle into a regular role, and it’s not an indictment that he hasn’t got there yet, even if he spends most of his time in the AHL again this year. It might be a bit much to rely on a Sandin-Liljegren pairing when everyone is available, but I would love to see him get a chance alongside Muzzin at some point.
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Player Report: Kotkaniemi
The latest dramatic twist of the greatest soap opera on ice is the revenge offer sheet the Hurricanes have signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to. Outside of the one year pact, which skyrockets the cost of Kotkaniemi’s next qualifying offer, Carolina’s GM Waddell releasing a statement identical to what Canadien’s GM Bergevin said upon signing Sebastian Aho 3 years ago, and a signing bonus of $20 (matching Aho’s jersey number), there’s clearly a very personal aspect to the feud, which goes to show why offer sheets are so rare.
Although this article’s purpose is to outline Kotkaniemi’s game, I feel obligated to mention how wrong I thought it was for these franchises to acquire D’Angelo and Mailloux this offseason.
Even prior to this signing, Kotkaniemi’s valuation has been divided, starting with his selection at the 2018 NHL entry draft, where he was a surprise at 3rd overall. Fundamental to this surprise selection are both his size and position, underscored by another pick in the top 5, Barrett Hayton, especially relative to the wingers they supplanted for draft position (Zadina).
The next surprising turn in his young story came when Kotkaniemi made the Canadiens out of camp, sticking with the NHL club for the entirety of his rookie campaign. At this point I’ll introduce my main player comparison (stylistically), Joel Eriksson-Ek. Both centres made the team at a young age, retrospectively too young as each would backslide afterwards. This is due to a strength that they both share, really strong defensive play. Both have the size to win battles, take faceoffs, and check effectively in zone. Both support teammates in transition offensively, but are smart enough to defend well in transition, and always seem to be in the right position. Both are wise beyond their years in that sense, which helped them win over their coaches despite the shortcomings in their game.
Despite their big frames, both needed to add strength. Specifically to Kotkaniemi, filling out his frame will make him all the more effective, noticeably in regards to his skating. He still looks lanky, Bambi-ish if you will, and falls down easily. Adding strength and balance will make him more effective everywhere on the ice, and although he’ll never be the fastest or most agile, coming into his own in this way will give him a much stronger platform to perform from. It’s really a testament to his intelligent defensive play that he’s been effective in spite of his body’s immaturity. It will also allow him to better capitalize on his strengths winning loose pucks through all zones, especially on the forecheck in the offensive zone where he is already strong.
This physical development will greatly improve his offensive output as well. To this point, the results have been underwhelming for a 3rd overall pick, except for his work in the postseason where he’s vastly outperformed his regular season rates. A huge part of his playoff success has come because of his work in netfront battles, where he’s able to win a lot of 50/50 battles despite his slight frame, using his smarts to bang home hugely important goals. Similar to Eriksson-Ek, Kotkaniemi simply does not profile as an offensive dynamo, but I do believe KK has tool that separates him from his Swedish counterpart, a strong shot.
I believe that if he had been given more time in Finland to hone his offensive skills it might have been more beneficial in the long run, however there is still a possibility Jesperi could develop enough strength for his shot to be a viable option from mid range on the power play, in my mind a wrister from his weakside faceoff dot or the bumper position between the hashmarks. It hasn’t all been positive in Kotkaniemi’s time with the Habs so far, and many of the negatives stem from his offensive game, culminating in a demotion to Laval in his sophomore season. Again, huge similarities with Eriksson-Ek in this sense. Both made the NHL too soon because they are smart, responsible, and competitive, and it cost them a lot of offensive confidence.
Seeing as Eriksson-Ek is 3 years Kotkaniemi’s senior, perhaps the recent developments of the former’s career can inform us of what might be on the horizon for the latter. Eriksson-Ek went from scoring 6 goals in 17/18, 7 goals in 18/19, 8 goals in 19/20, to 19 goals in 2021. Although he was clearly his team’s best centre, he added 11 assists, good for 30 points in 56 games, or more simply put, not an offensive star. Kotkaniemi, despite having more to give offensively, will most likely find himself in a similar situation when it comes to offensive production vs overall impact on the game. Whether it’s Suzuki in Montreal, or Aho in Carolina, Kotkaniemi will not be expected to be the top scoring centre for his team next season.
All of these factors, from his play, the pleasant surprises, the disappointments, the playoff scratches, and now finally this offer sheet goes to show it’s been quite a tumultuous beginning or the young Finn. He brings a lot of value that is subtle, which might require more patience than 3rd overall or a vengeful offer sheet might afford him. Regardless, the best is yet to come for Kotkaniemi, and we should expect him to factor in a big way when the games means the most, perhaps even in the Olympics for a best on best Team Finland.
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Breakout Candidates: Pacific
Anaheim: a young team with many applicable potentialities, the most prominent of which are their last 3 first round picks. Zegras and Drysdale both played a handful of games in the NHL last season, and have clear paths to both prominent 5v5 roles and PP1 minutes. Personally, I would be tempted to exercise more caution with inserting the younger Drysdale in too soon, but Zegras is at a point where there is not really a reason to delay his arrival. Recent 3rd overall pick Mason McTavish plays a physical and pro style game, but as with every other pick in the 2021 entry draft, the pandemic year that it is, McTavish is best served with at least another year before having a serious shot at making the NHL. Beyond that the Ducks have a large amount of young players who should have more to give, as reflected by Anaheim’s recent results in draft lottery contention. Forwards such as Steel, Comtois, Lundestrom are complimentary pieces that will look much stronger as the team’s performance improves, so it would be hard for them to garner as much attention or credit if say, Comtois has a strong 20-goal season playing on Zegras’ wing. On defence there are similar complimentary options. I have been a fan of Mahura’s game but his time might be now or never to break into the league. Larsson is a bit younger but hopes of him being an impact defender lay farther into the future. In net the Ducks are set with the underappreciated Gibson, but prospect Dostal has been building his resume nicely. In general the Ducks, under GM Murray, have done a really good job at drafting and developing.
Calgary: a new coach represents a power vacuum, a chance for all players to drastically change their position on the depth chart. We saw the beginnings of that during their disappointing season in the North division, and this uncertainty is spilling into this offseason. Rumours surrounding Monahan, Gaudreau, and Tkachuk. Giordano gone already, but not much change has actually occurred. Perhaps the best chance of a breakout lies with defenders Kylington and Valimaki, who have both already played well for the Flames. Valimaki was probably a strong candidate for such a title 2 seasons ago, before tearing a knee ligament that sidelined him for quite some time. Especially with Giordano gone, and a decently strong defence group around them, these 2 might be the biggest x-factors for the Flames success this season. Up front there are some prospects looking to make the jump, first rounders Peltier and Zary both present skilled players who bring a certain tenacity that could endear them to coach Suter. Matthew Philips has some fans and provides some play making ability that could compliment this group nicely should he get the chance, personally I’d say this is less likely than some of the younger forwards I’ve highlighted here.
Edmonton: Holland did a lot this offseason, and I wasn’t a huge fan of a lot of his moves. That being said the Oilers are in a good spot, perhaps their best in several year heading into 21/22. A huge part of it is a potential youth movement dawning underneath the RNH-McDavid lottery crew. The first prospect to point to would be forward Dylan Holloway, who posted a really strong sophomore season at Wisconsin. Holloway is big and strong, plays centre or wing, gets to dirty areas, wins battles, is a great forechecker, and might even find his way into fitting very nicely alongside either McDavid or Drasaitl. He’s not exactly Zach Hyman, but adding those two to this forward group should work out really well. McLeod and Benson have done enough in the AHL to have every chance to make this roster as well. It’s not out of the question that we see Puljujarvi reach another level of play this year, whether it’s somewhere in this lineup, but honestly now that he’s bounced back and adjusted to the NHL (recouped value) it might not be with the Oilers. I do hope that he gets a shot at a big role, but as we’ve mentioned the forward group is getting crowded. On defence Bouchard is the point of intrigue, especially with the likes of Jones and Bear shipped out. I don’t think he’ll be as good as Dougie Hamilton, but it’s not unreasonable to hope he eclipses fellow offensive defenceman Tyson Barrie in the next 2-3 years. Holland’s track record of slow development from Detroit, as well as the acquisitions of Keith and Ceci tell us all we need to know about Broberg or Samorukov having a chance at cracking this years roster.
Los Angeles: poised to be one of the most exciting, or at least surprising, teams LA has a plethora of candidates for this breakout player discussion. Primarily is the eventuality of Quinton Byfield, who had a strong underage rookie AHL campaign. It’s not too much to think that he could lead this team in points this season, especially with fellow centres Kopitar and Danault taking on the heavy lifting defensively. Outside of that predicting what this lineup might look like is near impossible, and the reason the Kings are often atop any prospect ranking. Kupari, Thomas, Kaliyev, and Turcotte could each make a strong case for making the opening night roster, but based on how crowded the forward group is to start will most likely continue their work in the AHL. On defence there are at least 2 candidates for breakout player, depending on your definition. Mikey Anderson was one of the Kings’ best defenders last season, so the only breakout would be in recognition. Bjornfot played well for the 20-odd games he was in the lineup and will look to continue impressing. Clague is the oldest and has played the least NHL games of these 3 defenders, but with strong skating skill, a large frame, and some offensive abilities might catch a lot of people’s eyes. In a division where the 3 seed is anyone’s game, LA will be a young, fun team that many will be paying attention to and rooting for.
San Jose: The Sharks could really use some breakout players, as some new skill and energy would go a long way towards reinvigorating this franchise. It’s probably at least another year until some offensive options in Gushchin or Wiesblatt are pushing for a spot. There are some forwards like Chmelevski, Blichfeld, and Gregor who could be NHL regulars, but probably not enough to get national attention. The most critical spot will be in net, an area of great concern for the past few seasons. Aiden Hill and James Reimer isn’t exactly a world beating tandem, but could easily give the Sharks their best performance in years. They have Ben Gaudreau (many years away), but much closer are a pit of 23 year olds in Melnichuk and Sawchenko. Neither have played a large volume of games in a season to this point, but specifically Sawchenko has posted really promising results, leading the AHL Barracuda in save percentage the last 2 seasons, yet still splitting time in the ECHL.
Seattle: the Kraken don’t have years of development to fall back on here, but nonetheless found a way to acquire some options for breakouts thru the expansion draft. On defence the most likely is Cale Fleury, as Dunn probably shouldn’t qualify for such a distinction, even after a tough 2021. Up front lies perhaps the biggest x-factor for the team in Morgan Geekie. He’s scored at every level, including his limited amount of games in the NHL despite being used sparingly. That, and the Kraken’s scarcity of young players, centres, and goal scorers make a Geekie breakout a potentially franchise altering development. Alex True might also benefit from a change in scenery under similar criteria, although less likely.
Vancouver: outside of Demko, the biggest reason for a strong Canucks’ season is their top 9 forward group, among which depends on the strong play of a young trio. Dickinson is less of a breakout candidate and more so continuing his good play in a Canadian market, after a few years of playing a role with Dallas that saw him move throughout the lineup. Hoglander was quite good last season, but we should expect his growing influence on play and higher offensive numbers. Podkolzin is similarly well insulated and should have a chance to find a synergous role with good linemates. On defence we will see if Rafferty delivers on promising hype and if Chatfield can continue improving. Although he’s not as young or skilled as many in this conversation Tucker Poolman has an interesting possibility of fitting into this lineup partnered with Quinn Hughes. Personally I’ve liked his play, a good defender with smart enough support pass abilities, and it’s not out of the question he beats out Travis Hamonic for the high leverage opportunity.
Vegas: clearly in a different competitive level than the rest of their division, Vegas’ breakouts will mostly be concerning existing NHLers. Because of their centre group and his draft pedigree Nolan Patrick is a good place to start. He’s missed a lot of time due to injuries, so naturally staying healthy is a big part of it. He’s been effective so far, perhaps lacking in the dynamic qualities you’d expect from a potential 1st overall pick. The Knights have been famously effective at getting the most from their centres, and it’s not rare that a change in scenery can push a players play in a positive direction. Another highly drafted centre will have similar opportunities, as Peyton Krebs tries to make the roster. He has been practicing with Vegas as far back as the 2020 bubble, and posted really promising results in 24 WHL games and 5 AHL games before a 4 game preview in the NHL. Keegan Kolesar played really well last season, and with Tuch out to start the year he might have a good chance to run with an even greater role this season. On defence Hague and Whitecloud have already been performing at a high level, but the longer they stick around the more people will understand that. Brossoit will be in net more often than he was in Winnipeg, and I agree he has a good chance to deliver on those hopes as Vegas gave him a contract the going rate NHL backup, but there’s no reason to think he won’t continue improving and might be in line for a raise at the end of his current deal.
#nhl#pacific division#anaheim ducks#calgary flames#edmonton oilers#los angeles kings#san jose sharks#seattle kraken#vancouver canucks#vegas golden knights
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Player Report: Seider
At the time he was selected 6th in the 2019 NHL entry draft it was somewhat of a surprise to see Seider picked so high, after all most of the focus was on a historically strong contingent of American prospects lead by Jack Hughes. In NHL circles, a player of his physical stature and abilities is coveted, and considering his strong record internationally at the U20s and Worlds as well as his performance in the DEL, retrospectively it seems a bit low.
Since then the RHD played very well as an underaged AHL rookie where he quieted any doubts as to his offensive upside or ability to adjust to a smaller ice surface. He followed that up by winning Defenceman of the Year in the SHL, a truly dominant season. This brings us to now, the dawn of his arrival to the NHL, having already proved himself at every other level of play.
At least in my mind, he’s all but played his way onto this roster, and the acquisition of Nick Leddy might represent an ideal partner for the young Seider. With great anticipation we’re left to ponder what his play might look like in the future.
First let’s start with the measurables, right handed, an imposing 6’5, been playing top minutes in men’s pro leagues for 3 seasons. Can play both special teams.
Skates at a pro level. Big players often look slower than they really are, and he won’t be flying around like a speedy winger, but he’s able to leverage his movement skills and long reach to maintain strong gap control and defend well through all phases. Defends rush well, will separate attacker from puck and can spring counterattacks. Strong and smart enough to break cycles, uses reach for strong in zone coverage and penalty kill, will improve with experience.
Excellent passer, can execute long stretch passes and is smart enough to control time and space with outlet and support passes. Can quarterback a power play. Huge shot from the point, potential for 15+ goals.
And finally, his most unique signature skill, the reverse hit. He will walkways be one of the biggest and strongest on the ice, although by choice he’s quicker to use an active stick when initiating battles. However, not since the days of Mike Peca have we seen such a volume of one of the sports most surprising hit. Opponents need to be aware this, and eventually they will be, which should only afford Seider that much more time and space.
In terms of player comparisons, stylistically, the obvious players to compare and contrast would be fellow lengthy defenders Hedman, Chara, and Pronger. Obviously all three are Hall of Famers but there are some similarities. Let’s start with Chara, who would put his size to use more often to stickcheck than body check. Zdeno is significantly taller than Seider, but regardless the ability to win puck control in any situation, an impending wall is present. Seider’s skating abilities are closer to Hedman’s, and he should be able to pull off some of the stretch passes as well. I’m not convinced a player as physically nasty as Pronger would be allowed to exist today, but the devastating reverse hits send a message. Pronger was incredible at controlling play with support passes and there is a similar poise in that sense. I also think Seider’s power play contributions will be closer to that of Pronger, with a strong shot and ability to get it thru traffic as well.
He’s got a long way to go before earning his place among those 3, but for now he’s got every chance to make it there, and we’re here to witness.
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Kraken: A New Threat Rises
The much anticipated Seattle Expansion Draft was not quite what anyone expected, and until they take the ice we can do nothing but speculate how this team might perform. One thing is for certain, Seattle’s approach to the onslaught of transactions was far closer to GM Francis’ Hurricanes than to Vegas’ previous expansion, in terms of strategy and vision.
It is under this context we can start to assess the main strengths and themes of the inaugural Kraken outfit, and immediately one commitment stands out, defence. A hallmark of Francis’ aforementioned Hurricanes tenure, this was clearly a focal point in choosing a coaching staff. Coach Hakstol’s track record is quite strong at this moment of time. His work with the Flyers is ageing well, and as an Assistant with the Leafs the team’s defence transformed from weak to strong. Ultimately, where it matters most is on the ice, where the roster is consistent with their Coach and GM in said defensive ability.
Right away the blueline should be among the top third of the league as it boasts a very deep group that has some star power as well. Giordano and Larsson are established defenders, so we know they will deliver quality minutes. Oleksiak signed a big deal with the team, and well deserved. Even though he’s the same age as Larsson, he’s continued to get better every year. If that trend continues at all the rest of the league is in trouble. Vince Dunn had a tough final season in St. Louis, but he’s shown he can play enough in his young career that many have called him Seattle’s Shea Theodore, which might be a bit bullish, but he certainly is around the same age and coming from a similar situation. With the three mentioned prior with him he will not be overextended, and in fact between the four their skillsets do seem to cover a lot of bases.
Beyond that Carson Soucy projects for 3rd pair minutes, a role he excelled at in Minnesota. Jeremy Lauzon was one of my easiest choices in my own Seattle Expansion mock, coming from an important role on the Bruins. He’s fast, physical, and aggressive, and Boston is definitely not thrilled to have lost him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he found his way further up the lineup at some point. This is already 6 good NHL caliber defenders and we haven’t even touched on the brothers Fleury (Haydn, Cale), Will Borgen, Denis Cholowski, and Conor Carrick, who would all be fighting for time on any NHL team. Without a doubt the Kraken have the tools to ice a very strong defence group.
However, this defensive philosophy is present throughout the forward group as well, it takes every player on the ice after all. Yes, looking through their forwards one might try to wonder who will score for the Kraken, it does lack the name brand excitement retrofitted to the Inaugural Vegas team, but they are both defensively strong and deep, and they most definitely will not cheat you for effort. Perhaps the perfect player to encapsulate these characteristics is Colin Blackwell, and if you’re wondering who that is, that is exactly what I mean. He played his way onto a Nashville team two years ago, played well enough to sign with the Rangers, played his way onto Panarin’s line (to the dismay of those who wanted Kakko or Lafrenire to get minutes there) and played so well Panarin is rumoured to have asked to keep Blackwell on his line. As Babcock famously said of Hyman, “the stars like to play with someone to get the puck back”, Blackwell has thrived on doing the dirty work.
And he’s not alone. We saw Yanni Gourde play a huge role on the Lightning’s 2nd most important line (sorry Stamkos) in back to back cups, forming a legendary checking line with Coleman and Goodrow. In 2021 I learned both Tanev brothers are severely underrated, so Brandon will be a lot more than a pretty face once the season starts. Finally both Wennberg and Jarnkrok are really well rounded, defensively responsible, and physical players. Throw in Mason Appleton and that’s 6 really intense forwards to start with. Particularly Gourde and less so Wennberg have a bit more offence, but all 6 could chip in 10+ goals in a full season as well, which starts to add up as we go through the lineup.
Schwartz is a strong signing, a bona fide top 6 winger does a lot considering the rest of the roster, but Schwartz has posted strong defensive numbers with the Blues throughout his career. Eberle adds a splash of offensive flavour that is needed. Donskoi is a good middle 6 forward but if you aren’t familiar with his work, the guy’s got mad dangles. McCann has had a tumultuous carrer path thus far, but he’s coming off a strong year with Pittsburgh, and he might be one of the best power play options on this team. He was on pace for 25+ goals last year and could easily equal that pace again in his 25 year old season. This quartet should be the offensive catalysts of the team, and if they could all get 15+ goals it would put the team in a good spot to be successful.
The two biggest x factors, especially when it comes to Seattle’s goal scoring potential, lie with Morgan Geekie and Alexander True. Both have proved to be strong offensive players in the AHL and are ready to be full time NHLers. Both have positional flexibility as well, and if they can both play well enough to take a hold of a role in the top 9 forwards this team would be so much better for it.
All this attention to detail in terms of preventing goals against will make the netminders’ jobs that much easier. Grubauer’s played really well on strong teams, but has been a bit injury prone, so his contract does remind me of the Leafs signing Andersen 5 years ago. The injury history, as well as the continuing trend of tandem situations in net, justify the overqualified Drieger. Joey D’Accord is a good 3 as well, regardless virtually everything would have to go wrong for this group to underperform.
It’s for these reasons that it’s hard to imagine Seattle being that bad of a team this year, and as everyone chuckles at the on-paper strength of the Pacific Division, it’s not out of the question that they make the playoffs. It’s getting ahead of myself, but they seem rough and tumble enough to do really well in the playoffs as well, and if they finish 3rd they’ll probably play Edmonton in the 1st round…
As we go forward it will be interesting to see how their treasure trove of cap space is utilised, and most likely they might be waiting to see how they perform before deciding how to use it to their advantage. It’s easy to see how adding a talented but expensive played might not cost a lot, and simultaneously vastly improve the quality of the team. Tarasenko is one that’s been speculated, and honestly I think that would take them into a legitimately good team tier.
The final, and perhaps most important point of their offseason is the acquisition of Matthew Beniers. I’m not sure they will have a shot of selecting so high in the near future, and to be able to grab a great centre prospect, especially considering how scarce that opportunity is for even an expansion team (ahem, VGK), and the strengths and weaknesses of their roster, it bodes so well for the future of the Kraken beyond 2022. Many said he is a good defensive centre, a good support player, a good transition player, some Larkin and Bergeron (stylistic) comparisons, and it's easy to see how that would fit in so nicely whenever he makes the jump (my guess is spring 2022, after NCAA season).
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2021 NHL Draft: Best Classes
Dallas: it’s tough to get a read on the Stars first selection, Wyatt Johnson, as he didn’t play this year. That being said trading back is usually a win in terms of value, perhaps more so this year than ever. Stankoven and Martino are really good picks that should have probably gone a round earlier than where the Stars got them. I have generally positive thoughts on Grushnikov, Roulette, and Bar as well. All in all from volume to value, Dallas covered a lot of ground with their work.
Minnesota: Judd Brackett might be one of the foremost directors of scouting, and GM Guerin smartly stepped aside and let his scouting staff work their magic. Wallstedt was an absolute steal at 20 and should help carry on the tradition of not conceding many goals against. Lambos was good value just a few picks later, whose play overseas took him out of the top tier of defenders, but he definitely has lots of tools.
Anaheim: picking third was really the first decision of the night, and although maybe not third on my own list, McTavish kept rising as the year wore thru. GM Murray noted that he brings a slightly different style (power) than their the fineness displayed by their other top prospects, Zegras and Drysdale. The Ducks managed to get really nice value on day 2 as well, nabbing borderline first rounders Zellweger and Pastujov in the 2nd round. Tschigrel in the 5th was nice as well.
Columbus: Trades for Bean and Boqvist notwithstanding (huge wins btw) the Jackets had lots to work with. Kent Johnson at 5th was perhaps a bit bold, but tantalizing offensive prowess is exactly what this team is missing. Sillinger is a nice stylistic compliment to Johnson as a shot generator. Ceulemans was a fine pick and has the skating and physicality to be an intriguing prospect as he honed his game in level beyond the AJHL. I’m a big fan of Svozil, especially in the third. In all a huge weekend for the future of a franchise that’s suffered a long few years of talent depletion.
Buffalo: It’d be hard not to cone out a “winner” picking first. I’d send Power back to college for a year, but regardless a turning of the page has been needed for this team, and early positives from Coach Granato’s tenure could create an environment for a blueline with two 1st overall picks to start playing as such.
Detroit: I know many wings fans were hoping for Eklund or Wallstedt at 6th, but they shouldn’t be too upset with getting both Edvinsson and Cossa in the first round. User an is determined to have a defence group filled with towering talent. Edvinsson skates really well, especially for his size, which makes him a near lock to make it to the NHL. He might be a bit raw offensively but he is daring (or creative) and shows flashes. Maybe the fanfare surrounding Wallstedt was a bit higher than Cossa, but it’s never a bad thing to end up with your own top ranked goalie. Buium, Savage, and Mazur out of the USHL along with Dower Nielsen are fine. If I had to guess, stocking up on defenders early in a significant way probably makes sense for a huge rebuild, and adding one of the highly anticipated lottery pick forwards in the 22 and/or 23 drafts means we should expect the Wings to start turning things around 2-3 years from now.
Winnipeg: The Jets had an amazing draft, especially considering their middle of the pack slotting. Lucius is a capable goalscorer, adding Chibrikov in the 2nd was high value as well. Kuzmin is a good prospect, but I really like the fit as Winnipeg is without much offensive skill on the back end (for now, I do like Heinola).
Los Angeles: Like the Jets, the Kings didn’t have many picks but made them count. Clarke is a great player, and an even better fit for the league’s most prolific prospect system. The two parties should really get the most out of each other. Pinelli, Helenius, and Kirsanov we’re good values as well, and all four players bring a distinct style from each other.
Nashville: Svechkov and L’Heureux are two really interesting forwards, and heading to a program that has had trouble developing talent at that position makes their significance that much greater. Svechkov was the top ranked Russian on nearly everyone’s list, noted for a strong defensive results and a player who helps get the most out of linemates. L’Heureux is fiery, feisty, and skilled. Grabbing Olsson, a defenceman playing in the SHL, in the 3rd round is great value as well.
Carolina: The hallmarks of this regime were on full display, trading back and taking lots of interesting prospects. Say what you will about what they’re willing to pay whom, the Hurricanes know how to keep the pipeline flowing. Koivunen, Morrow, and Heimosalmi is a great haul for the second round.
Calgary: the Flames were also picking middle of the pack, and managed to grab 4 players I really like in Coronato, Stromgren, Huckins, and Whynot. There’s a certain, for lack of a better word, pluckiness? Assertiveness? About Coronato that reminds me of Zary, even Dube, meaning he seems right up the Flames alley, although at least for now Coronato seems to have a bit more offensive upside than those two.
Seattle: Getting Beniers, who was the only other name that I saw get consideration at first overall, was the right pick. Especially considering how hard it was to find true centres thru the expansion draft (even for Vegas), the Kraken did well to acquire a staple at their weakest position. Winterton was decent value in the 3rd, while Evans and Ottovianen bring different sets of skills to start a brand new system.
Biggest Steals
Eklund: thinking Eklund would be gone by this point, I imagined it’d be hard for the Sharks to pass on Wallstedt. That being said I had Eklund ranked 3rd overall after an amazing season in the SHL, where he arguably outplayed highly rated teammate Holtz. Since the Karlsson trade, the Sharks have done well adding lots of talent up front that should start making an impact in the next year or 2. Obviously the goaltending has been a huge issue recently, but adding an influx of offensive talent should help get the most out of Burns and Karlsson while they still have something to give.
Wallstedt had such good results in the SHL already, it’s hard to imagine he fell so far. It is always nice to see a goalie of his caliber go to a team that appreciates defence.
Lysell is a really good player with the harmless kind of “character issues” (from what I understand) which sounds like he just wanted to get icetime. He was barely used in the SHL, so his numbers aren’t anything to look at. Mostly I’m just having Pastrnak flashbacks, dreading the day when he starts lighting it up for Boston.
Chayka I really thought would go higher, as he’s a good two way defenceman who plays a strong pro style game. In that sense he fits Vegas’ modus operandi, and really cements the continued strength on the Knight’s back end.
Raty was in the conversation for 1st overall at the beginning of the year, and despite a rough season there’s no way he should’ve fallen to the middle of the 2nd round. GM of the year every year Lou earning his 21/22 award between this selection and his recent cap clearing masterclass.
Behrens was getting some late 1st/ early second hype, so for Colorado to get him with their draft’s first selection at the end of the 2nd round is quite good, not that they are desperate for options when is comes to young blueliners.
Robertsson fell to the 3rd round, honestly this might be the first thing I’ve liked from the Blues since their cup win.
Duke is way too good to be falling to Tampa Bay in the 5th round. Maybe he’s not quite as obvious a steal as Point was, but Tampa is showing how it built its dynasty.
#NHL Draft#dallas stars#Minnesota Wild#columbus blue jackets#buffalo sabres#detroit red wings#los angeles kings#winnipeg jets#Nashville Predators#Carolina Hurricanes#calgary flames#seattle kraken
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Re-Framing the Leafs: I
Scene setting: inventory of fractured beleafs
Inevitably, the defining memory of this season is the bitterness of having the franchise’s best hope in more than a decade decimated by a most historical foe. From the clutches of their defeat, down 3-1 in a series, the Habs managed to hang on long enough for the Leafs to crumble into nothingness, or at least the next season. With a variety of dramatics the initial opinions on how to move forward have begun to be formed as we draw to a close of the Stanley Cup Final.
Perhaps Montreal’s subsequent success in the playoff changes the perception of the Leafs shortcomings, but ultimately it comes down to a perceived lack of progression, as the team continues to fall in the “first round” (thanks Columbus) even as they’ve gone from playoff newcomers to betting favourites, failing to beat anyone. Clearly, any thoughts of Toronto as a Cup contender to this point have been premature at best.
Regardless, there are some measured improvements over the Matthews era, and there are positives to take from the second Covid-warped campaign. Although the North division was missing a top tier contender (at least in the regular season), the leafs were able to make the transition into a top defensive team. This is absolutely crucial to Toronto’s post season success, and although the results have not paid off as of yet, the team finished with in the top third in goals against.
Having said that, the transition into a winning team has yet to complete, and although Toronto may have the talent to win, the habits aren’t there yet. Progress instead should be measured in surpassing last year’s defensive results in returning to a normal schedule, finishing with the least amount of goals against possible.
The good news is the blueline doesn’t have to change much, as the the best group in more than a decade will be in the mix, even without considering a return season for Bogosian. Brodie is everything Reilly needs in a partner, Muzzin and Holl continued their stellar play, while Sandin and Dermott are poised to continue expanding solid results (despite some costly moments).
The situation in goal is in flux, as Campbell will look to replicate his breakout year, across more games than he’s ever played before. Needless to say it’s crucial to acquire a tandem goalie, someone who can push for at least 30 starts. Perhaps Frederick Andersen can return at discounted price. It’s definitely difficult for me to project what the free agent market will be like, but it’d be reasonable to spend at least 2-3 million on this position.
The forwards are essential for strong defensive results as well, and as this group will naturally undergo the most personnel change, will be the crux of a successful offseason. The cap is tight around the league, and usually it’s the middle class of player that gets squeezed first. This might play into Toronto’s hands, and a valid strategy may be to wait for the first wave or two of signings before circling back to whoever gets left behind. It may not be proactive enough for an NHL team to consider but some interesting options might play out in the aftermath of the offseason’s uncertainty.
Regardless, whether it’s retaining Hyman and Foligno, or signing any free agents, adding players who can win in the playoffs (ie be physically intense, play defence, and know how to bend the rules) is the primary concern. Simmonds and Spezza are back on sweetheart deals, and retaining affordable continuity, experience, and leadership is a perfectly good place to start the process of building around the big four.
Among the other returnees is Mikheyev, who could easily score 2-3 times more with so better luck and a breakaway move, but is big and fast enough to be an effective checker. Less certain to return is Engvall, who provides similar checking traits. Kerfoot could fit well anywhere and that exactly why Seattle will take him. I would suggest that Robertson and Amirov spend a year dominating the AHL for a season before being relied on as a starter going in to a season. After Nick’s brother, Calder Finalist Jason Robertson, just had his breakout season and he’s 2.5 years older than Nick, and was at least as good as a prospect.
That’s leaves a few spots open, meaning that even if some Leafs leave in free agency they’ll need to be a few signings for regular players up front. This is where most of the off-season valuation will be decided, on how much the handful of new forwards can change the teams character
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Re-Framing the Leafs: II
Reimagined pp: strange shuffles
One of the major storylines as the season wore on was the drought that befell the Leafs power play after a productive beginning. Although there were injuries that contributed to this, namely Matthews’ and Simmonds’ wrist injuries, the fact of the matter is the man-advantage was anything but when it mattered most. I, for one, was hoping to see a true tandem, two even units, to provide twice as much to prepare against, and to hopefully ebb while the other flows, so to speak. The last time the leafs deployed such a tactic was Matthews’ rookie year. But alas, it seems unlikely to be the case as the current trend is to load up one unit.
That being said when drawing up a pp setup it might help to consider some unorthodox changes to maximize each individual’s specific skill set. I’ll go through each player and highlight some areas I think they should be occupying.
Marner: much has been made of his lack of shot, and even as it improves, the biggest change I would like to see is moving him off the high wings, as his lack of shooting prowess limits his options from this particular area. The more conventional approach to adjusting his positioning would be to play him deeper in the zone, either the corner or just outside the low slot, similar to where Backstrom plays in Washington. It is a very dangerous passing position, perhaps more so than his current spot, as he can still pass up high, cross seam, and to the net front. Perhaps getting the puck below the goalie can cause some chaos in turning around defenders, but being closer to the net would also make his threat as a shooter more relevant, as he does possess the accuracy to punish cheating goaltenders.
Another thought is to move him to the classic defenceman spot, in the middle of the blueline. As a central nexus to setting up one timers, it would take advantage of his passing skills, while a shot from this position is already quite rare in Toronto’s power play. This would also allow you to use 5 forwards, which is risky, but having a true net front like Simmonds would really lessen the load on Tavares for the dirty work in front. Seeing as Reilly and Sandin haven’t taken a hold of this spot, and Marner’s propensity to take on defensive responsibilities, this could be a really interesting experiment.
Matthews: not much should change, setting up a shot from either wing is still this unit’s most consistent chance at a goal. Tony Matts can do some work in the slot as well, as we’ve seen some highlight reel tips when he applies his size and hand-eye, so it would be nice to see him keep teams off balance by jumping inside more often.
Nylander: the main beneficiary of taking Marner off the high wing, as Willer has the best shot for a long snipe outside of Matthews. He is skilled enough to hit seams like Marner, but the added threat of his shot is much more complementary to the attention Matthews demands. He can still cycle around to the low post (one of my proposed Marner spots) where he has been able to produce. I saw him trying out more one-timers from the high wing, especially early in the season when he was in that spot more often, but building that skill would really solidify his ability to check every box from a high wing spot.
Tavares: he does good work in the high slot (aka bumper) position. He has good skills in tight, is strong enough to win battles, and is skilled enough to score off tips and shots. Having Marner in a different spot will open up some new angles for him, especially if Marner is down low I could see them working some quick passes into goals, either kick-outs to the slot or cross crease tap ins.
With that in mind I’ll try to illustrate some potential lineups crudely:
PP 1 (Marner low)
Marner Tavares
Nylander Matthews
Sandin
PP 1 (Marner high)
Simmonds
Tavares
Nylander Matthews
Marner
PP 2 (Marner low)
Simmonds
Robertson
Galchenyuk(?) Spezza
Reilly
PP 2 (Marner high)
Foligno
Robertson
Reilly Spezza
Sandin
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Re-Framing the Leafs: III
Returning evals: potential continuities
This section could be out of date soon as more and more decisions are made. Re-signing Spezza and Simmonds to sweetheart deals is amazing, and adding one or two more players of quality on a similar deal would go a long way towards opening up the possibilities higher up the lineup.
Hyman would be amazing to have back. For a few years I’ve been hoping that he is able to replicate the continual improvement of a player like Marchand (a lofty goal), and to this point he has continued to progress in that direction. The situation becomes complex given the flat cap, the Leaf’s general lack of cap space, and Hyman’s knee injuries. He could easily price himself out of town, and at 28 it might be his best chance to cash in big. He has the tenacity required to win and losing him would be a tough loss.
Foligno didn’t exactly exceed expectations, but perhaps some of that is due to his injury. Especially if Hyman leaves (and even if he doesn’t) keeping some “sandpaper” in house is big. Whether in a complimentary top 6 role, or as part of a checking line Nick will be able to contribute. Even in his hobbled state, Foligno showed he is quite adept at understanding what infractions he could get away with in the post season. Given that Columbus had a really down year, the likelyhood of a return at a decent price is credible.
Bogosian was fantastic, and I’ve remarked before how I was surprised by how much he used his speed to get up on the rush. He can really fly, and I find he is quite similar to Holl in that sense. He is likely to get more lucrative offers elsewhere, but even with some term a return would be most welcome. Always nice to keep someone with his temperament, consistency, and experience around.
Galchenyuk had moments in his stint, some good like in game 4, and some not-so-good like in game 5. Bergevin’s first draft choice coming back to haunt him was too good to be true. He does have a ton of skill as he would really give a boost to the second power play and can play in the top six, at least on a short term basis. That being said I think the number the Leafs can afford to give him should be below 1.5 million, if not below 1 million all together. I’m not sure if his performance in Toronto has earned him much more than that elsewhere, so the possibility of a return still exists. Because of his skilled role, he might help keep you from trying to hurry Robertson again.
Andersen is probably still a good goalie. He might never reach the peak he achieved during his tenure here thus far, but Campbell shouldn’t be counted on for 50+ games, and having a capable tandem is increasingly popular and successful across the league. The going price for a tandem goalie has been 3-4 million a season, so getting comfortable with the idea of spending 3 million in cap space, especially on a short deal, is necessary. If you can get Andersen around that price there might not be a better/more realistic option on the open market.
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Re-Framing the Leafs: IV
Farm system: cycles of a harvest
Lots of scouting services actually rank the Leafs’ current farm system quite high among the league, despite not possessing any elite prospects. In other words, there are some intriguing players but most are still a year or two away from truly competing for a regular role.
Amirov, long term, is probably the most talented of the system. A first round pick from 2020, he already has experience in the KHL and appears to be slated for action with the Marlies in 21/22. Putting up strong results in a full pro season, on smaller ice, and in a premier role would constitute a strong performance, and a good case scenario could see him legitimately having a shot to make the team in 22/23. He plays a very interesting style, and is strong at creating takeaways and counterattacking, and can play both special teams. He is very skilled but somehow seems more suited to a complementary role, which might actually help him make a greater impact when he does make the Leafs, as it would suit his more puck-dominating prospective linemates.
Robertson has been known for some time, as his appearances in the bubble and in a few games last season have thrust him into the spotlight a bit sooner than he has been ready for. Most curious was the decision to withhold him from the World Juniors, instead prioritizing trying to make the team out of camp. Regardless, he had a strong season in the AHL and is still on a very promising track. I wouldn’t mind seeing him get more time with the Marlies, potentially pairing with Amirov or continuing his success with SDA for a bit longer. He has a good shot, but plays aggressively, with a tenacity that will only help the team.
Hallander, Holmberg, Abramov, are just some who had strong seasons in 20/21, and will be trying to build off that on the Marlies this coming season. This should give the chance for a much stronger squad this year, and hopefully push each other towards success. Especially Holmberg and Hallander, who are a bit older, could be pushing for an NHL job by the end of the season. Others like Miettenen, Ochinnikov, and Abruzzez might be a year behind that.
Liljegren is still a prospect, and especially if Bogosian is not re-signed, might finally be thrust into a regular spot. Full disclosure, I’ve been a Timothy believer for a while. When watching him in a lower level, but even in short glimpses in the NHL, it’s clear he possesses almost every tool. He is a good passer and can complete stretch plays from deep in his zone. He is physical enough to separate most attackers from the puck, he is agile enough to evade forecheckers. At times he does look a bit uncoordinated, uncomfortable, or unsure, but ultimately I believe with more experience we will start to see more of the good and less of the bad. For these reasons he has become a logical trade chip, even more so considering he wasn’t a Dubas pick. Regardless, the time is now for Liljegren to stick with the big club.
Other than that the most exciting prospect on defence is probably Topi Niemela, who was defenceman of the tournament at the World Juniors. He has already spent 2 years playing pro in Finland, meaning it’s not unreasonable to think he could play big minutes for the Marlies this season. He is a bit small for a defender, which some NHL teams avoid altogether, and has become a more popular sentiment when looking at the statures on the bluelines of the teams that went deep into the playoffs. That being said, Niemela can transition the puck well, skates well, plays smartly and efficiently, and has good gap control. In a sense he is similar to Sandin, and might be indicative of what the Leafs are valuing in defence prospects.
In net there are 2 notable prospects, Woll and Scott. Woll is a year older, and has played more at higher levels, namely the NCAA and the AHL vs Scott’s experience in the WHL. Both are promising to an extent, and featured on their respective World Junior teams. Scott was injured and missed all of 20/21, so it’s been a while since we’ve seen where he’s at, and it’s important he gets into some games, even if it’s at the ECHL level. If these two could provide solid goaltending for a competitive Marlies outfit in 21/22 it would constitute a success in my mind. Goalies are hard to predict, but any action they can earn before their 26th birthdays is a pretty big win, and they’re both still 3 years out from there.
Vehvilinen might be closer to being NHL serviceable, but given his less-than-stellar numbers in the last few years it would be unwise to enter the season with him on your NHL roster at this point. He is still only 25, so there is definitely time for him to make it.
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Re-Framing the Leafs: V
Q&A: filling in the blanks
As we get closer to the beginning of next season things will become clearer, but purely off speculation I’m going to go over some potential bargain candidates, players who might be effective but won’t cost much. This group might be even more vital if the Leafs are aggressive elsewhere and need to patch some holes lower in the lineup.
Ho-Sang is finally free of the Islanders, and I do hope a team takes a earnest chance on him. He’s posted good results both offensively and defensively in limited action over the years, and would fit the modus operandi we’ve seen during Dubas. He definitely won’t be commanding a large contract but has a lot of potential. It is hard to call him a reclamation project like Galchenyuk, since he hasn’t really had much of an opportunity to prove himself in the first place, but Toronto has shown the willingness and ability to help players by supporting them and putting them in positions to succeed.
Michael Bunting had a strong showing in a brief stint with the Coyotes. Does he re-sign? Was it enough to earn him a deal elsewhere? Regardless, as a former Soo Greyhound we know Dubas has heard of him. He has speed to beat defenders for breakaways, has a decent shot and can get into the slot for tips and rebounds.
Evan Rodrigues was briefly a part of the roster before ultimately resigning in Pittsburgh. My original introduction to him was as Eichel’s linemate in NCAA, and was surprised they didn’t play much together on the Sabres. He’s a versatile bottom 6 forward who I find is strong defensively. I think some of the reason he wasn’t kept around last year was the cost of qualifying him as an RFA, and his inclusion in a trade was likely to make it possible for the Penguins to sign him for less.
Gemel Smith is another defensively oriented forward who can play wing or centre, and has yet to get a long look in the NHL. He is currently blocked in a very deep Tampa system that will be in flux this off-season, so it’s quite possible he sticks with the Lightning as some spots open up. In general raiding Tampa’s cupboard has proven fruitful, as Verhaeghe, Volkov, Barre-Boulet, and even as far back as Marchessault have been able to find more icetime elsewhere in the league.
Corey Perry would be a great add.
Frederick Gaudreau and Vinnie Hinostraza would both be strong additions but are more likely to stay with their current teams. Both have more of a track record than those previously stated but definitely bring some tenacity that should be targeted.
Hjalmarsson and Demers are veteran UFAs from the Coyotes and could be options if Bogosian isn’t resigned and if they are open to a low cost deal. Personally I’d rather see Bogosian return.
Borgman, Luke Schenn, and Hutton have all had stints with the Leafs and could be in play for a role as a depth defenceman.
We’re anticipating more moves up front than on the back end, but all these names point to an overall philosophy Dubas has been using. Especially during the final four, much was made of needing players, especially defencemen, with size to be successful. It appears that the Leafs have been prioritizing skill in the draft while focusing on adding size and grit through trade or free agency.
Like clockwork after every draft pick a portion of the fans are up in arms about how the teenagers selected aren’t physically imposing enough and Dubas is against any physicality. All the while Muzzin, Simmonds, Foligno and such ilk are brought in to supplement this need immediately. I expect things like physicality, tenacity, experience, and defensive abilities to be a continued focus for the immediate roster.
Lundqvist, Raanta, and Brossoit represent 3 different types of goaltending options for Toronto. Lundqvist might be the only option of his kind, and if cleared to play would be my top priority. Raanta might occupy a category of netminder similar to many others, Mrazek, Reimer, Benier, Carter Hutton, and arguably Frederick Andersen. These are players who would be splitting the net with Campbell, and who the Leafs end up with will probably come down to their offers from around the league, their price. Due to this it’s impossible to predict who might be willing to take a smaller deal.
Finally, Brossoit represents those less experienced than Campbell. It’s not uncommon for goalies to find their way into their late 20s, such as Campbell has, and Brossoit has a case to make a similar jump given the opportunity. I’ve liked his game since he was on Canada’s Junior teams. This type of route is the riskiest, but also the least expensive, meaning this could be the route to go if more aggressive moves are made elsewhere on the roster.
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Group A:
Owen Power, D, NCAA
This is likely the only pick that we’ll be able to predict with much conviction. It’s a package that is impossible to ignore, a huge frame, good passing skills, and already contributing at a high level. Seeing as the second-to-last defenceman to go 1st (Ekblad, get well) just started to transform into his best self, and with Dahlin posting uneven results early in his journey, there shouldn’t be an expectation for Power to make the jump to Buffalo next season. Especially given he’d be headed back to Michigan, a higher level than junior, this should be an ideal place for him to hone his craft for a year or two before the Sabre slide him into their top 4.
Group B: 2nd to 10th
Some consensus should be coming as we approach the draft, but in general it wouldn’t be surprising for these players to be selected anywhere in this range. Central accounting’s lists were quite surprising and I definitely take their opinions to heart, along with many other opinions as well. I’ve divided them by position.
Defence:
Brandt Clarke, D, Slovakia (via OHL)
Clarke went overseas to find playing time this season, playing pro in Slovakia. He’s got a lot of agility, or shiftiness, with and without the puck. He’s aggressive in pursuing offence with his passing and skating, and has the quality to make plays and even score goals when he jumps up into the play.
Luke Hughes, D, USNDTP
The third instalment of the Hughes Brothers (Quinn and Jack), Luke is bigger than his brothers and amongst the youngest of the draft class. He has all the tools we’ve come to expect from the family interns of puck skills and skating prowess, although time will tell maybe not quite to the level of his brothers, but nonetheless standouts amongst this draft class. Given his age, and playing at a lower level than the rest of these top ranked defenders, the baseline of at least one more year before thinking about jumping to the NHL might be 2 for Hughes. With patience and development, Hughes could prove to have the most upside among blueliners in this class.
Simon Edvinsson, D, SHL
Not quite as tall as Power, but Edvinsson a big person in his own right. He uses this size and his skating to be a really effective defender. His offensive game, especially his passing and decision making, or perhaps better framed as transitions, is still a bit raw. Surviving in the SHL at this age is definitely an accomplishment, and the hope is that next season he can make a bigger difference in that league. It seems all but guaranteed he’ll be able to contribute in the NHL at some point, the question is more about how much.
CENTRE
Matt Beniers, C, NCAA
Beniers is definitely the prospect I’ve seen the most of in the class, and especially early in the season I had almost cone to terms with ranking him number 1. Although it is significant to me that Central Scouting had him as their 6th NA skater. He’ll be described as a 2-way centre, maybe a 2nd line type of centre, and I wonder if it’s mostly due to a perceived lack of upside that others might have jumped past him. Regardless, he’s already succeeding in at Michigan and played a big role on the Gold Medal U20 US team. He supports his teammates all over the ice and is a great passing outlet from breakouts to zone entries. He does have some skill and is probably my favourite to go 2nd overall at this point (June).
Mason McTavish, C, SUI (via OHL)
Another OHL top prospect who had to venture overseas for ice time, McTavish performed really well in a men’s pro league. Perhaps a bit more powerful in skating and style than Beniers, the situation with the OHL, a strong U18 performance, and a high season end Central Scouting Ranking (2nd NA), it’s likely McTavish will be considered a late riser, even though it’s not as if a strong development curve wasn’t expected. Especially as we get closer to the draft we should expects to see his name solidify itself in this 2-10 group, especially given his position.
WINGS
William Eklund, W, SHL
Eklund posted really good results in the SHL this year. He is able to contribute offensively in many ways, and at this point his game seems to be more effective than astounding. Having succeeded at such a high level already it’s hard to imagine he won’t be able to make a difference on an NHL roster in a year or two.
Kent Johnson, W, NCAA
Johnson might be a good foil to Eklund in that his play oozes skill, often able to makes and see plays at an extremely high level. He was able to translate it into both a strong performance at Michigan, and a high spot on Central Scoutings’ List. The fact that they ranked him above Beniers is very interesting to me, and says that scouts think his game will take well as he moves into higher levels. He is very fun to watch and attacks laterally in a way that only the high quality players can.
Dylan Guenther, W, WHL
19/20 was strong for Guenther, and a short and strange season for the WHL was enough for him to grow his reputation. He averaged both a goal and an assist per game in 24 games this season, basically playing as well as he could have. The CHL leagues were probably most affected among top development leagues, so it’s hard to know how much that affected things. That being said, should he return to the WHL it’ll be a tall task to improve his offensive output. Despite playing at a lower level he is very much in the mix with Eklund and Johnson, and it is quite likely there will be nothing close to a consensus on which order these wingers are selected.
Goalie
Jesper Wallstedt, G, SHL
More and more often were seeing really high ranked goaltenders, and as more of them start to pan out, it’s hard to make a case picking against Wallstedt. Posting great numbers in the SHL as a skater is impressive, but in net the accomplishment becomes truly rare among draft eligibles. The position is volatile, and it often takes time to find the metal stability to be an NHL starter. That’s why despite the dominant results in the SHL, it’s probably best to err on the side of patience. That being said, it’s exciting to conceptualize that he might be able to make a difference at the NHL level in 2-3 years vs in his mid to late 20s as is common for netminders.
Group C
This group I would call likely 1st rounders, obviously some of this caliber of player can fall into round 2, even in more normal years. Some might even be able to push over some of the group B prospects ranked ahead.
WINGS
Matthew Coronato, W, USHL
The Chicago Steel have a great program, and seem to have a more consistent line of talent than most of the others in their league, perhaps similar to the London Knights of the OHL. That being said Coronato scored at a ridiculous pace, even compared to his teammates. In part thanks to the Steel this league is being seen as more and more credible when it comes to drafting prospects. It is still not quite as strong of a league as the SHL or NCAA, but it might be the only thing that keeps him from going in the top 10.
Nikita Chibrikov, W, KHL
There is debate about who the best Russian forward prospect is between Chibrikov and Svechkov. In Chibrikov’s favour is the ranking from Central Scouting as well as a really strong U18 performance. It seems every year that the best Russian prospects don’t garner much respect from those who aren’t scouting the region specifically, so it shouldn’t be a surprise for all 3 Russians in this range (Chibrikov, Svechkov, and Chayka) to be selected earlier than one might expect.
Fabian Lysell, W, SHL
He is not quite as good a prospect as Lucas Raymond from the 2020 draft, yet the two are similar in that they are small, offensively capable wingers who didn’t get much ice time in their draft years, and who are much better at pressuring the puck all over the ice than given credit for. It wouldn’t be a surprise for him to fall a bit due to his stature, but Lysell still figures to go I. The first round.
Isak Rosen, W, SHL
Simon Robertsson, W, SHL
Brendan Othmann, W, SUI
Othmann has the size, power, and skating skills that figure to translate well to the pros. He has the shot and puck skills to be dangerous on the rush and gets a lot of chances to do so thanks to his abilities in transition and counter attacks.
CENTRES
Aatu Raty, C, SML
At one point a favourite to be the top ranked prospect in this class, Raty stock has cooled recently thanks to some less than promising results in the Finnish pro league. He’s big and strong enough to be effective along the walls in zone offence, and is able to find open ice in shooting positions. Typically, the Finns employ a utilitarian skillset, disposed to strong 2-way play or substance over style. I believe that this often causes the offensive capability of Finnish prospects to be undersold (thinking of Anton Lundell from the 2020 draft). If supported in the right way Raty could be a steal, especially given the scarcity of strong centres in this class.
Fedor Svechkov, C, KHL
Cole Sillinger, C, WHL
Chaz Lucius, C, USNTDP
DEFENCE
Corson Cuelmans
Carson Lambos
Daniil Chayka
Group D
This group is players I have a first round grade on, but are by no means a lock to be selected afterwards. No doubt that some of this group will be selected from the mid second round and later. At this point there is a greater number of prospects, so I’ll merely name a few that I feel strongly about.
Forwards
Logan Stankoven
Zachary L’Heureux
Chase Stillman
Defence
Scott Morrow
Stanislav Svozil
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Year In Review: NJ Devils
HUGHES
It was with an aura of disappointment, honesty, and self confidence that Jack Hughes answered reporters in his season’s exit media availability. “The process was there, but the results will come” was the message that accurately depicts his sophomore season, as he took great strides towards improvement in controlling shot-attempts and scoring chances. He used his speed to get more breakaways and rush chances, but also to carry the puck up the ice, from exits to entries.
His development is crucial to the Devils’ future, as well as the primary source of optimism headed into 21/22. It’s not only feasible, but probably necessary for Hughes to be the teams’ most impactful player should New Jersey hope to qualify for the post-season. GM Fitzgerald and Coach Ruff both pointed out the success of his late season linemates and pleasant surprises Sharangovich and Kuokkanen, but make no mistake, this is Hughes’ bus to drive.
FORWARDS
It should help to have a healthier season from new captain Hischier. This 1-2 punch at centre needs to be the foremost strength for New Jersey’s success. Especially given the departure of Palmieri, it’s fair to say that the group of wingers leaves a bit to be desired. There are some solid veterans like Wood and Zacha, but the majority of the forward group are younger players who will be hoping to grow their influence next year. Bratt, Boqvist, Foote, and perhaps even Alexander Holtz have the skill and pedigree to deliver more in the near future, but I can’t help but feel that a few of these young forwards will have to take a big step forward, and really emerge as top options, for the rest of the group to fall into place behind them.
DEFENCE
The picture on defence requires a bit more imagination, but never the less paths towards success are present. Ty Smith had a good rookie year, and does provide a lot of hope going forward. Development is rarely linear, but like Hughes up front, New Jersey might be relying on Smith to be their best d man. Subban and Severson haven’t necessarily posted the best results recently, but it’s fair to expect that they have lots to offer should they not be relied upon too heavily. Subban, although hasn’t been posting his Norris winning stats, is still playing more than 22 minutes a game. If the rest of the group was strong enough to afford him even 20 minutes a game, it might go a long way to getting a better quality of play from him.
Butcher, Seigenthaler, and Mueller are decent depth for now, and perhaps another prospect such as Walsh can step up. It might be a lot to ask of Smith to be your best defenceman, so adding an impact defender through trade or development might be required.
Blackwood is ascending in goal, a volatile proposition, especially on a weaker team. The idea of acquiring an experienced former starter to form a tandem didn’t work out with Crawford, but is the right idea.
NEXT STEPS
Although I don’t advocate drafting for needs, but with a lot of defencemen high in this year’s rankings it would be nice for the Devils to procure a defender with upside. I would advocate for the entire 2021 draft class to return to their non-NHL leagues, but even 2-3 years into the future a prospect like Power, Clarke, Edvinsson, or 3rd-Hughes-Brother Luke joining this group would make them look a lot more formidable.
In terms of needs, teams can fill a given role through internal development or outside additions. New Jersey’s needs would be 3:
Experienced tandem goaltender. Although the ideal might be someone who was a starter, getting a player in their late 20s who has some backup experience could be appropriate as well.
Improve blueline’s long term outlook. It’s quite rare (unless you’re Devon Toews) for a legitimate top four defender to be available, meaning it’s probably unrealistic to expect the Devils to be able to address this in one summer. They have some money to spend on a player or two this year, but the goal will be to make the playoffs two years from now and have a window to win with your centre group.
Stabilize forward group. Johnsson should be a third liner on a good team, meaning the top 6 wingers need to reveal themselves. As stated there are a lot of young players who might be able to step in here, but with some cap space it might be helpful to acquire 1 player that you know can deliver top line play. This might help in providing a benchmark from which the rest of the forward group can begin to crystallize.
SUCCESSFUL OUTLOOK
This team does not needs to tank, and should be trying to see high draft picks achieve higher levels of success. Even pushing for a playoff spot into the last games of the season would be a successful season for the Devils. As the Capitals and Penguins get older, the Devils will have to be keeping pace with the likes of the Flyers and Rangers within that power vacuum.
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2021 Playoff Preview
WEST
1. Colorado: hitting their stride at the perfect time, key players are back from injury. Healthy goalies go a long way (as they found last year). Makar deserves Norris consideration. On top of all their riches Jost and Timmins have finally started to live up to their potential. Don’t forget Newhook and Byram are on the way up as well. This group should be a cup contender for the next 5 years or so. With all that being said it took Tampa quite some time to turn their talents into a cup, and only time will tell if the Avs are able to love up to their projection.
2. Vegas: this team is big and strong and feasted on the lower half of the west division just like the avalanche. One of the most undersold additions of this off-season is probably Pietrangelo, joining Theodore and a strong and young blueline that boasts some really good defenders in Whitecloud and Hague. Yes, Chandler Stevenson is not quite the flashiest name at 1C (he does a good job tho, don’t get it twisted), but even the bottom portion of the forward group has players who are strong, fast, and skilled, such as Roy, Tuch, and Kolesar. A cup win this year is very much in play, but the future is not without hope should Glass and/or Krebs ever blossom into what Stevenson is not.
3. Minnesota: Although a playoff berth without much of a chance to go all the way is not new for the Wild, the sense of ascension in a optimistic future is a welcome change. Even without a series win, the foundation of a strong performance could be a crucial step in their building.
4. St. Louis: letting your captain and best defencemen (player?) walk is certainly a choice. Reminds me a little of Washington letting Trotz walk. I must also admit I’m not a huge believer in Binnington. They’ll need Kyrou and Thomas to continue expanding their influence as the years go, but it’s hard to see this group replicating their success from 2019. Shout outs to Perron for aging like fine wine.
Final four pick: Vegas over Colorado
EAST
1. Pittsburgh: Yes, the goaltending is more stable than last year, but another huge aspect in what looks to be a much stronger iteration of the Penguins is the success of Matheson-Ceci. The duos play has definitely helped Marino-Pettersson to develop at their own pace, not to mention Dumolin-Letang to round out an understated but very strong blueline. Carter has been a great addition and has still got game, people sleep on you when your team isn’t good (I see you Anze Kopitar). Between their cups wins the Pens looked like an easy out at times, but I see that more as a testament to Crosby and Malkin being able to cruise into the playoffs. When they are on they could easily go all the way.
2. Washington: Some have been waiting for the bottom to fall out with this aging group, although they managed to pace the division for large parts of the season. Although Chara joins a defence group that is probably at its best since the Cup win, there are questions up front and in net. Mantha is a nice addition (maybe not worth the price) but there are a lot of injuries heading into the post season. Samsonov and Vanecek have been alright in net, but it is a lot to ask of two young goalies. In 3 years that tandem could be really strong but to this point it hasn’t been elite level.
3. Boston: finally the blueline is healthy. The second line, rather the forward group in general is as strong as it’s been in years. Swayman and Vladar provide some post Rask optimism, but for now there’s not much to be critical about throughout this lineup.
4. NY Islanders: This team is not exciting but they get the job done. They ended Pittsburgh’s 8 series winning streak a few years ago. Barzal/Nelson/Pageau is really solid down the middle. The defence would look a lot better with Toews. I might pick them to beat Washington in a series but that’s about it.
Final four pick: Boston over Pittsburgh
CENTRAL
1. Carolina: This team is stacked. The blueline is very deep. The goalies have all been good in large part thanks to their overall team structure (I’d go Mrazek/Nedeljkovic/Riemer FWIW). Trocheck has fit in so nicely and really shine with Necas, who is big, fast, and skilled, and often looks like he can do anything on the ice. Svechnikov is still coming into his own, but is not being relied on more than he can handle at this point.
2. Florida: This has been the most surprising and fun team of the season. It’s nice to see players like Duclair, Verhaeghe, and Bennett excel when given the opportunity. Splitting Barkov and Huberdeau was huge, and adding lots of sandpaper with the likes of Hornqvist, Wennberg, Gudas, and Nutivaara has helped solidify the bottom of the roster. It sucks that Ekblad is out for sure, although hopefully both he and the Panthers can carry their success into next year, regardless of how a very tough opening round in the battle of Florida unfolds. They really got pooched in the last expansion draft so hopefully that does not repeat itself, although youngsters like Tippett, Denisenko, and down the road Noel and Lundell should help prevent too much of a regression.
3. Tampa Bay: What to say? The defending champs hitting the post season in a return to full health. A roster with no holes, lots of continuity and the best goalie in the world (?) at this point. There’s not much reason to pick against them besides hockey is strange and random and Florida is more fun. Big shout outs to the NHL’s first all Black line, as Mathieu Joseph, Daniel Walcott, and Gemel Smith got the opportunity to start late in the season. In particular Joseph and Smith are players who have had really strong results in short stints fighting for a regular spot in this loaded Tampa lineup (also, shout out to their brothers, Givani Smith and P.O. Joseph who should have a shot at being NHL regulars next season).
4. Nashville: The Preds have the goaltending and defensive structure to pull off an upset. Both the 1st round matchups in this division embody why I really enjoyed this division, as geographical rivals have the chance to square off. In all, this division could provide the most entertainment of round 1.
Final four pick: Carolina over Florida
NORTH
1. Toronto: I will probably be writing more Toronto centric pieces so I’ll keep it short. In three short (actually painfully long) years as GM, Dubas has kept the “can and will” big four and changed the rest of the team to compliment their skill sets and short comings. This team is easily the favourite to come out of the North Division.
2. Edmonton: McDavid is on another level. Seeing some clips in the fall (off-season) it’s as if my eyes forgot how fast he really was, as upon seeing some clips of his I could’ve sworn were playing in fast forward. Draisaitl is really good too. Similar to Dubas, GM Holland has built a roster that compliments his offensive stars, although his route there has involved more patience than anything. Tippett and Smith have been the forefront of their defensive prowess, it’s hard to overlook the effect that defenders like Nurse and Bear have contributed to this new facet of their identity.
3. Winnipeg: the Jets are very much limping into the post season, although they do have the goaltending to pull off upsets, and the talent up front to score opportunistically. In all their blueline and defensive play in general is underwhelming.
4. Montreal: The Habs successfully outlasted the mediocrity in the lower portion of the division to hold onto the last spot. They do have the physicality and depth to outperform their talents in the playoffs as we saw last year, although a lot will have to go right for them to pull off an upset or two, including a vintage Price performance in net should he be available.
Final four pick: Toronto over Edmonton
#nhl playoffs#montreal canadiens#Toronto Maple Leafs#winnipeg jets#edmonton oilers#Nashville Predators#tampa bay lightning#Florida Panthers#Carolina Hurricanes#New York Islanders#boston bruins#washington capitals#pittsburg penguins#st. louis blues#Minnesota Wild#vegas golden knights#Colorado Avalanche
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x-nsh
Even up until midway through this very season, the shine of the Nashville team that lost a contentious Stanley Cup Finals loss to the Penguins (2nd of b2b wins) had been all but dimmed. In some ways, they had even become an archetypical example of a team holding out too long for the false promises of a Cinderella Run. Trade rumours engulfed nearly everyone on the roster and there seemed to be a sense of that the Preds had been caught in no mans land. Yet somehow (regression in Chicago, injuries in Dallas) Coach Hynes and the crew have got it together at just the right time.
Encapsulating this emergence is the scene as they clinched their Playoff Berth. Amidst the surreal atmosphere of a large raucous crowd, the play began to bear the frenzy and fervour reserved for the post season. Defeating their upcoming opponent, the first-place-in-the-division Carolina Hurricanes, for the first time this season helped to underscore the hopefulness of possibilities that await this Nashville squad.
At the forefront of this newfound positivity is the continued secession of the crease from Rinne to Saros. Rare to see in general, but especially given that Coaches Trotz and Korn have left, but Rinne has been allowed to age peacefully in a waning role just as Saros unveils abilities to last as a majority starter. It’s especially encouraging given the organization’s history of strong goaltending play and the whispers of Askarov 5-ish years in the future.
The blueline remains as good as any (top third ish of the league?). Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm is a great start and the rest of the defence have been good enough and there’s reason to believe Carrier and Fabbro could continue to improve with experience.
That leaves the forwards as the logical candidate as the surprisingly effective aspect of the Preds. Forsberg is good, but Arvidsson is injured. Johansen and Duchene are both useful parts of the team, but not necessarily the top-line-centre-types that the Preds had hoped for (at least paid for). Granlund, Haula, and Richardson have been as advertised, middle 6 additions, but the real fulcrum has been Tolvannen and Kunin. Tolvannen has a great shot and has a definitive offensive flair, the reason for his selection in the first round of his entry draft, and in a sense is helping the make up the production lost from Arvidsson’s absence. Kunin, meanwhile, has shown more than he did in his brief stint with the Wild last season.
To his credit Hynes has settled on some interesting lines, while largely maintaining the previous regime’s outline. Forsberg-Johansen are flanked by Tolvannen. Trenin-Sissions-Jeannot has been solid on the fourth. Meanwhile, the magic really occurs in the middle (2nd and 3rd) lines. I find the combinations to really make sense together as a unit, taking it to a place of synergy.
Richardson/Cousins-Haula-Duchene are all centres, or at least have been. Richardson has been effective for years as a checking centre and generates positive defensive results, really helping to anchor this unit’s viability in checking, even if Cousins has provided similar elements to greater success. The speed of both Duchene and Haula are enough to pressure anywhere on the ice, and together provide more than enough skill to be a consistent threat to score.
Jarnkrok-Granlund-Kunin ends with a similar two-way play capability, but gets there in a different way. I’d say the speed and skill of Granlund are complimented by wingers that play “heavy”. Jarnkrok is understated, at least in reputation, but is fundamentally strong and can fill many roles on a team. He was forced deeper in the lineup during the prior years, but has held up his end of the bargain with more responsibility.
Could they win a round against Carolina? Maybe. They have the experience and the physicality to do it, the goaltending to keep it close. Maybe they could even win a couple rounds. But to me it seems like they are missing what they would need to pull off what the 2012 Kings or 2019 Blues pulled off as low seeds.
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